Typical Josh McDaniels

ATippett56 said:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/09/10/wednesday-morning-one-liners-275/

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Yup. Pretty funny that ANYONE here arguing the contrary at this point.

AndyJohnson said:

Looked it up on profootballreference.
Could have miscounted by a little on the totals, but
Brady 8-6
Every other QB in NFL history 93-345-6

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8-6 (.571) is well below Brady's overall winning percentage of .775.

There's a reason BB replaced Bledsoe.

ATippett56 said:

The OC has spoken. End of conversation. Run the damn football.

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Do not hold your breath, people have been saying this for a few seasons now, and the season always seem to end the same way.

shmessy said:

8-6 (.571) is well below Brady's overall winning percentage of .775.

There's a reason BB replaced Bledsoe.

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Of course it is but in the type of games where all other NFL QBs in history have won about 21% it is very impressive.

supafly said:

Although there have been many references to the "40 pass attempts" rule with Tom Brady and the difference in his success, I couldn't find any of the recent articles in the past year or two which show his records above and below (much better) 39 attempts.

I did however, find this stat, and although it's 5 yrs old it still shows the extremely low rate of success that stems from that many pass attempts :

"In the entire history of the NFL, quarterbacks who attempt 50-plus passes are a pathetic 73-260-6 (.224) in the regular season and 4-22 (.154) in the playoffs."---Courtesy of Cold, hard, football facts

NOTE: Looks like since the article was from 2009 it's so old that the link no longer works. I think it tells us a lot of what we already know though, in the sense that generally we're going to have a much lessened rate of winning when throwing that many times.

If anyone can find Brady's record when throwing 40+ times vs less than 40 times, please post it. We've discussed it many times over the years.

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It's a pretty textbook case of confusing correlation with causation, if people think this stat means that teams are losing because they're throwing the ball a ton (not sure if that's what the article you linked is claiming, since the link isn't working for. I've seen that argument made on this forum though). It's actually the reverse.

Typically, if your QB throws it 50+ times, that means you were playing from far enough behind that you had to adjust to a high-variance gameplan in hopes of scoring a lot of points quickly. This past week's game was a great example of that, considering how many of Brady's throws came in the last couple of drives when he was just airing it out because they were down two scores and had to strike quickly to get back into the game.

BradyFTW! said:

It's a pretty textbook case of confusing correlation with causation, if people think this stat means that teams are losing because they're throwing the ball a ton (not sure if that's what the article you linked is claiming, since the link isn't working for. I've seen that argument made on this forum though). It's actually the reverse.

Typically, if your QB throws it 50+ times, that means you were playing from far enough behind that you had to adjust to a high-variance gameplan in hopes of scoring a lot of points quickly. This past week's game was a great example of that, considering how many of Brady's throws came in the last couple of drives when he was just airing it out because they were down two scores and had to strike quickly to get back into the game.

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.


In the 2nd half, the Pass/Run ratio was 14-4 when they were not far behind at all......just in the process of getting behind.

1st Drive: Patriots ahead 20-13: 3 Pass 1 Run (ends in sack fumble)
2nd Drive: Tie game 20-20: 3 passes (ends in Punt)
3rd drive: Miami 23-20: 3 passes 2 Runs (ends in Punt)

4th Quarter;

1st Drive: 23-20 Miami: 3 passes (ends in sack/Punt)
2nd Drive: 23-20 Miami: 2 passes 1 Run (ends in Punt)




.

shmessy said:

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In the 2nd half, the Pass/Run ratio was 14-4 when they were not far behind at all......just in the process of getting behind.

1st Drive: Patriots ahead 20-13: 3 Pass 1 Run (ends in sack fumble)
2nd Drive: Tie game 20-20: 3 passes (ends in Punt)
3rd drive: Miami 23-20: 3 passes 2 Runs (ends in Punt)

4th Quarter;

1st Drive: 23-20 Miami: 3 passes (ends in sack/Punt)
2nd Drive: 23-20 Miami: 2 passes 1 Run (ends in Punt)




.

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After the going down by multiple scores with 3:29 left in the 4th, the Pats ran 13 consecutive passing plays, and overall ran 1 rushing play (a 9 yard run by Vereen out of the shotgun on 3rd and 29) vs. 18 passing plays (1 strip sack, 1 Brady scramble, 4 completions and 12 incompletions).

However bad you think the imbalance was in the third quarter, almost a third of Brady's pass attempts on the game came in the last 3:30 of the fourth quarter, with just about the least run/pass balance possible. All because running isn't an option when you have to score twice in three minutes. That was clearly why Brady hit the 50+ attempt benchmark. Again, correlation vs. causation.

BradyFTW! said:

After the going down by multiple scores with 3:29 left in the 4th, the Pats ran 13 consecutive passing plays, and overall ran 1 rushing play (a 9 yard run by Vereen out of the shotgun on 3rd and 29) vs. 18 passing plays (1 strip sack, 1 Brady scramble, 4 completions and 12 incompletions).

However bad you think the imbalance was in the third quarter, almost a third of Brady's pass attempts on the game came in the last 3:30 of the fourth quarter, with just about the least run/pass balance possible. All because running isn't an option when you have to score twice in three minutes. That was clearly why Brady hit the 50+ attempt benchmark. Again, correlation vs. causation.

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The issue isn't what the Pats ran in the last 3:29. They had no choice by then. The issue is what they chose to do while they were ahead, tied or behind by 3 with plenty of time to go. At the end of those 5 drives, there was still 9:37 left to go in the game. Their hand was not forced at all.

14-4 Pass/Run ratio when they were either leading,tied or behind by 3.

Of course it got worse when they were down by 10, but they did not have to throw it away in the first place. Even McDaniels admitted as much today.

AndyJohnson said:

Looked it up on profootballreference.
Could have miscounted by a little on the totals, but
Brady 8-6
Every other QB in NFL history 93-345-6

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good resource. had totally forgotten about it

here's the link for > 40 attempts:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=career&year_min=1960&year_max=2014&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_type=R&league_id=&team_id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&stadium_id=&game_day_of_week=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&handedness=&is_active=&is_hof=&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=40&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=player

sort by win %.

on the 50+ attempts, here are QB's with 10+ games of 50+:
Rk Player From To Tm W L T W-L% ▾ Count PLAYED
5 Tom Brady 2001 2014 NWE 10 7 0 0.588 17 17
29 Dan Marino* 1984 1999 MIA 5 11 0 0.313 16 16
34 Peyton Manning 1998 2013 IND/DEN 4 11 0 0.267 15 15
48 Drew Brees 2002 2013 SDG/NOR 2 12 0 0.143 14 14
30 Drew Bledsoe 1994 2002 NWE/BUF 4 9 0 0.308 13 13
35 Brett Favre 1993 2009 GNB/MIN 3 9 0 0.25 12 12
6 Warren Moon* 1989 1994 HOU/MIN 5 5 0 0.5 10 10
49 Matthew Stafford 2009 2013 DET 1 9 0 0.1 10 10

shmessy said:

The issue isn't what the Pats ran in the last 3:29. They had no choice by then. The issue is what they chose to do while they were ahead, tied or behind by 3 with plenty of time to go. At the end of those 5 drives, there was still 9:37 left to go in the game. Their hand was not forced at all.

14-4 Pass/Run ratio when they were either leading,tied or behind by 3.

Of course it got worse when they were down by 10, but they did not have to throw it away in the first place. Even McDaniels admitted as much today.

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In the context of the current discussion (the post of mine that you originally quoted and took issue with), what happened in the last 3:29 absolutely is the issue, and the fact that they had no choice by then is 100% the point. When a quarterback hits 50+ pass attempts, it's because of stretches like the last three and a half minutes of the game.

I'm not disagreeing that there was a playcalling imbalance prior to falling behind by two scores (although, given how horrible the OL was over that stretch, I'm not inclined to believe that calling different plays would have even mattered). I'm pointing out that it got much, much, much worse after the fact, and that's why the "50+ passes" club is even relevant to this game.

shmessy said:

The issue isn't what the Pats ran in the last 3:29. They had no choice by then. The issue is what they chose to do while they were ahead, tied or behind by 3 with plenty of time to go. At the end of those 5 drives, there was still 9:37 left to go in the game. Their hand was not forced at all.

14-4 Pass/Run ratio when they were either leading,tied or behind by 3.

Of course it got worse when they were down by 10, but they did not have to throw it away in the first place. Even McDaniels admitted as much today.

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I think the issue is that whatever they did, it wasn't working. Its easy to say do more of what you didn't do, but that really wasn't working either.

AndyJohnson said:

I think the issue is that whatever they did, it wasn't working. Its easy to say do more of what you didn't do, but that really wasn't working either.

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Except running the ball is what you do when you have a lead you want to protect, or when your D is gassed (that 15 second drive must have really helped in the south Florida heat and humidity), or when your Oline can't sustain and your QB is getting killed. All of that was happening and the Pats went pass crazy. It defies all logical reasoning and basic football fundamentals.

Armchair Quarterback said:

Except running the ball is what you do when you have a lead you want to protect, or when your D is gassed (that 15 second drive must have really helped in the south Florida heat and humidity), or when your Oline can't sustain and your QB is getting killed. All of that was happening and the Pats went pass crazy. It defies all logical reasoning and basic football fundamentals.

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Failing by running would not have made it any better.

AndyJohnson said:

Failing by running would not have made it any better.

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The run game was the problem?????

2nd Half

4.5 ypc >2.4ypa, 2 lost fumbles on sacks, being more predictable for the opposing D and killing your own D by forcing them to be out there 19 of the 30 minutes in the heat.

I guess Mrs. Lincoln actually liked did enjoy the theatre that night.

Most everyone here understands that. McDaniels, himself, openly admitted so yesterday also.

shmessy said:

The run game was the problem?????

2nd Half

4.5 ypc >2.4ypa, 2 lost fumbles on sacks, being more predictable for the opposing D and killing your own D by forcing them to be out there 19 of the 30 minutes in the heat.

I guess Mrs. Lincoln actually liked did enjoy the theatre that night.

Most everyone here understands that. McDaniels, himself, openly admitted so yesterday also.

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I don't understand half of what you are saying there

The point is that play calling doesn't matter if you don't execute. Run/pass ratio was a minor impact on this loss.

shmessy said:

The run game was the problem?????

2nd Half

4.5 ypc >2.4ypa, 2 lost fumbles on sacks, being more predictable for the opposing D and killing your own D by forcing them to be out there 19 of the 30 minutes in the heat.

I guess Mrs. Lincoln actually liked did enjoy the theatre that night.

Most everyone here understands that. McDaniels, himself, openly admitted so yesterday also.

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I've been calling for a better discrepancy in the pass/run ratio for years. It's not like Ridley and Vereen are scrubbers.

AndyJohnson said:

I don't understand half of what you are saying there

The point is that play calling doesn't matter if you don't execute. Run/pass ratio was a minor impact on this loss.

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Really? The Offensive Coordinator of the New England Patriots admits it was.

AndyJohnson said:

Failing by running would not have made it any better.

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shmessy said:

Really? The Offensive Coordinator of the New England Patriots admits it was.

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If he admits it was a minor factor, what point are you trying to make?

When I sit back and read some of these back and forth threads, I can't help but feel that it's the personality clashes that determine each person't arguments, and not the facts. The FACT is that the Pats have been out-coached in the second half of games lately, and many times it's because they went pass-happy, even while ahead.

If a coach feels that the defensive alignment or scheme is the determining factor in what the offense will run, then that alone will make that offense predictable to a fault. Sometimes, it's good to see a team run the plays it wants to run and make the other team stop them, no matter what the alignment might be.

Think of the times that the Pats had a double figure lead and yet still went out in a pass-happy and quick-play no huddle offense, only to see the other team come back and make a game of it because the Pats were running it with a 17 point lead and 8 minutes left in the game.

It's become very frustrating to see that same old story over and over again.

Maybe it's the fantasy league crap that has people pining for more passing, even though it's obvious that balance is the key. It always has been.