A closer look at Tom Brady’s game on Sunday

I have seen several posts since yesterday taking not of Brady setting some type of record for most incompletions 15+ yards down the field. This is incorrect, Brady did not set any record he had the most incompletions on those passes since the tracking began in 2006, which is 7-8 years in a league that has been in existence for nearly 100 years.

This of course led to the Brady is not what he used to be talk. Well before we conclude that lets take a closer look at Brady yesterday:

- Q1 – 10/13 76.9%, 69 yards, 0 sacks, 88.3 QB rating.
- Q2 – 9/16 56.3%, 118 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 sacks, 100.5 QB rating. Notes: Of Brady’s 7 incompletions in this quarter 2 of them were shots at the end zone first with 19 seconds remaining to LaFell, and then with 15 seconds left to Thompkins. These 2 were 15+ yards down field.
- Q3 – 4/7 57.1%, 31 yards, 2 sacks, 68.2 QB rating.
- Q4 – 6/20 30%, 31 yards, 2 sacks, 39.6 QB rating. Notes: Of Brady’s 14 incompletions, 12 of them occurred with 3:29 or less remaining in the fourth quarter down by 10-13 points. Of those 12 incompletions 9 of them were 15+ yards downfield.

All totaled 11 of the “record” 16 deep passes that he missed on were either him throwing into the end zone at the end of the second half or him trying to bring a team back from down 2 scores with around 3 minutes remaining.

Brady is as sharp as ever when he has the opportunity to do his job. In my opinion Brady is every bit what he used to be unfortunately the players around him are not what they used to be.

- Gronkowski is not healthy and therefore he is not what he was before (hopefully that changes soon)
- Amendola is not Welker
- Thompkins/Dobson is not Moss
- LaFell is not Stallworth (I am not sure why they kept having him run deep routes as if he was)
- Hooman is not Hernandez
- Vereen- is not Faulk or Woodhead (not consistently anyway)
- Solder is not Light
- Vollmer is not Vollmer (this is not a typo)
- Cannon is not Mankins
- Wendell is not Koppen
- Devey is not Waters/Neal
- Ridley’s confidence in himself is 1% of what it used to be he is so afraid to fumble he can barely run anymore.

Since the end of 2012 Brady has basically lost his top weapons – Gronkowski, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Branch all gone (Gronkowski injured). Since 2010, Brady has lost Mankins, Koppen, Light, and Waters on the OL. If you took the 2 Thomas’s, Sanders and Welker from Manning let me just say he would be doing ESPN interviews hammering the Elway, Fox and anyone else who is part of the Denver organization.

I think his weapons are still pretty good. He's getting older and he is declining any way you spin it. However he is still a top 5 QB when he is protected. Clearly he wasn't protected and the results were a bad performance. But you can say that about any QB. Aaron Rodgers didn't look like the MVP last Thursday and he would of looked pretty bad behind this line on Sunday. Although he may have run a bit more.

He's got good offensive weapons. He just doesn't have much of a castle from which to launch those weapons. You give him the Faulk, Moss, Welker, Gronk, and the felon in their prime and that game is probably still lost, because they wouldn't help with the pass protection.

Stallworth wasn't that good anyways. LaFell played like Brandon Tate. I really hope he isn't a bust because he didn't have a very impressive preseason.

Brady played like a turd yesterday. Slice it, dice it, and spin it any which way you like. The whole team sucked a heavy one. TFB included.

It happens. Even the best have bad games. He had them in his prime, and he's gonna have them now that he's a little past his prime. Are we really going to dissect every clunker he puts up to try and somehow explain away what was clear to see for anyone who isn't blind?

Hopefully they all play better next weekend. That's pretty much all there is to it.

OL was obviously a huge issue that wasn't Brady's fault. But completion% doesn't take into account the whole situation and a good NFL QB makes that downfield throw to Edelman. If he's still playing at a HOF level he needs to make that throw just like the one in the AFCCG last year. If you just want to convince us he's still good then, sure, throw those numbers at us as proof.

I'm not convinced that he isn't ready to play elsewhere to be honest. He seems unhappy with BB's moves and has to know his contact isn't getting redone here. Not saying he's tanking, not at all, but I think he may be mentally worn out here. I understand moving him isn't feasible due to the csp. I'm not advocating it, just saying I this is a bad mental place for him right now.

BelichickFan said:

OL was obviously a huge issue that wasn't Brady's fault. But completion% doesn't take into account the whole situation and a good NFL QB makes that downfield throw to Edelman. If he's still playing at a HOF level he needs to make that throw just like the one in the AFCCG last year. If you just want to convince us he's still good then, sure, throw those numbers at us as proof.

I'm not convinced that he isn't ready to play elsewhere to be honest. He seems unhappy with BB's moves and has to know his contact isn't getting redone here. Not saying he's tanking, not at all, but I think he may be mentally worn out here.

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YES, YES, and YES. This guy gets it.

I'll take it a step further. I'm not convinced Bill wants him him much longer than this season. In fact (and I'll probably get banned for this), I would HARDLY be shocked if Bill didnt look to trade him in the off season. You know the whole "better a year early" mantra we here around here consistently? Is TFB immune from it?? Guess we'll see.

That said, I hope im wrong and the fix the things around him. Im just not holding my breath.

Mogamedogz said:

I'll take it a step further. I'm not convinced Bill wants him him much longer than this season. In fact (and I'll probably get banned for this), I would HARDLY be shocked if Bill didnt look to trade him in the off season. You know the whole "better a year early" mantra we here around here consistently? Is TFB immune from it?? Guess we'll see.

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Unless there's some contractual options I'm not aware of I think he's untradeable cap wise. His salary is $7M next year, at that price he's a keeper. But if he wants a big raise he needs to play better.

BelichickFan said:

Unless there's some contractual options I'm not aware of I think he's untradeable cap wise. His salary is $7M next year, at that price he's a keeper. But if he wants a big raise he needs to play better.

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Well if he really wants out of here (and he may if he wants to prolong his career and maybe life), I can totally see a scenario in which he agrees to restructure or sign a new deal elsewhere if/when the contract talks get messy.

Maybe you can help me understand it better, but does his $5M signing bonus come due next season also? Or is that guaranteed money that's paid up front?

Mogamedogz said:

YES, YES, and YES. This guy gets it.

I'll take it a step further. I'm not convinced Bill wants him him much longer than this season. In fact (and I'll probably get banned for this), I would HARDLY be shocked if Bill didnt look to trade him in the off season. You know the whole "better a year early" mantra we here around here consistently? Is TFB immune from it?? Guess we'll see.

That said, I hope im wrong and the fix the things around him. Im just not holding my breath.

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Bill is an idiot if he doesn't want Brady. He hasn't been able to win a Super Bowl in 10 years with Brady never mind without him.

I don't believe Belichick is an idiot.

Brady6 said:

Bill is an idiot if he doesn't want Brady. He hasn't been able to win a Super Bowl in 10 years with Brady never mind without him.

I don't believe Belichick is an idiot.

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Agreed. But if BB knows that he isnt going to get a deal done with TFB, always better to get something than nothing. Especially if he senses that Brady wants out anyway.

Maybe TFB decides that he doesnt owe anyone anything and asks for an outright release, I guess it depends on how ugly it does or doesnt get in the offseason. We'll see.

Obviously, (and this should go without saying) I pray things dont play out this way. Im just saying that it wouldnt shock me at all. Sure would bum me out though.

Mogamedogz said:

Maybe you can help me understand it better, but does his $5M signing bonus come due next season also? Or is that guaranteed money that's paid up front?

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I just read somewhere that signing bonuses are typically paid out over the life of the contract. So Brady's $5M bonus doesnt come due all at once in 2015 (which would have brought his cap number up to $12m).

Google is cool.

Mogamedogz said:

Agreed. But if BB knows that he isnt going to get a deal done with TFB, always better to get something than nothing. Especially if he senses that Brady wants out anyway.

Maybe TFB decides that he doesnt owe anyone anything and asks for an outright release, I guess it depends on how ugly it does or doesnt get in the offseason. We'll see.

Obviously, (and this should go without saying) I pray things dont play out this way. Im just saying that it wouldnt shock me at all. Sure would bum me out though.

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If the Pats released Brady before next season, he would have a $42M cap hit. Before 2016, he would have a $29M cap hit. Basically, he isn't getting released. The only way he leaves this team in the next couple of years is via trade, and even then IMO it's not worth discussing. When you have Brady, you keep him. It's a lot easier to build a competent interior OL than it is to find a GOAT QB.

BradyFTW! said:

If the Pats released Brady before next season, he would have a $42M cap hit. Before 2016, he would have a $29M cap hit. Basically, he isn't getting released. The only way he leaves this team in the next couple of years is via trade, and even then IMO it's not worth discussing. When you have Brady, you keep him. It's a lot easier to build a competent interior OL than it is to find a GOAT QB.

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I know next to Jack about cap numbers (so thanks for that). And I agree that trading Brady would be the wrong move. Im just saying that I can see things getting ugly sooner rather than later if the team doesnt show him that they are willing to help bail him out a lot more as his career winds down.

Denver is doing right by Peyton, as they did right by Elway (albeit by cheating the cap). The Pats have a chance to do right by TFB here. In the recent past they haven't really shown a willingness to do that.

BradyFTW! said:

If the Pats released Brady before next season, he would have a $42M cap hit. Before 2016, he would have a $29M cap hit. Basically, he isn't getting released. The only way he leaves this team in the next couple of years is via trade, and even then IMO it's not worth discussing. When you have Brady, you keep him. It's a lot easier to build a competent interior OL than it is to find a GOAT QB.

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Which is my biggest issue with the Garopollo pick; #62 was prime for a very good OL that could have made an instant impact. We had no business drafting a QB when we cannot even protect the QB we currently have.

Physically Brady's best days are behind him. It's a fact. You can say that about any 37 year old QB.

The important thing is can the Patriots win a SB with the 37 year old Brady instead of the 25 year old Brady they don't have? I think they can. Obviously performance yesterday notwithstanding....

sb1 said:

Physically Brady's best days are behind him. It's a fact. You can say that about any 37 year old QB.

The important thing is can the Patriots win a SB with the 37 year old Brady instead of the 25 year old Brady they don't have? I think they can. Obviously performance yesterday notwithstanding....

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Who do you think is in better shape physically right now Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? I would bet my house on Brady and it not even being close. Manning is protected and has reliable offensive weapons and he is playing as well as he ever has.

BelichickFan said:

OL was obviously a huge issue that wasn't Brady's fault. But completion% doesn't take into account the whole situation and a good NFL QB makes that downfield throw to Edelman. If he's still playing at a HOF level he needs to make that throw just like the one in the AFCCG last year. If you just want to convince us he's still good then, sure, throw those numbers at us as proof.

I'm not convinced that he isn't ready to play elsewhere to be honest. He seems unhappy with BB's moves and has to know his contact isn't getting redone here. Not saying he's tanking, not at all, but I think he may be mentally worn out here. I understand moving him isn't feasible due to the csp. I'm not advocating it, just saying I this is a bad mental place for him right now.

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To me, the decline of Brady's skills seems painfully obvious. It seems like he has a terribly difficult time throwing anything outside the numbers or downfield with any type of accuracy or velocity. There was a sequence in the second half where he missed a wide open Gronkowski down the right seam, and then he skipped a 12-15 yard out to the left on the very next play. Missing Edelman has already been mentioned, but the long completion to him was an embarrassing throw. That throw was Chad Penningtonesque. I have no idea where he rates, top 5, top 15 or top 20, but I do know his erosion of skill is not a mirage.

Pats can win a SB with a 37-38 yr old Brady no doubt.

Brady6 said:

Who do you think is in better shape physically right now Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? I would bet my house on Brady and it not even being close. Manning is protected and has reliable offensive weapons and he is playing as well as he ever has.

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It is a joke to compare the abilities of Manning and Brady at this point.