Are the Denver Broncos better or worse this year?

Joker said:

Did New England and the other 30 teams in the league NOT watch the Super Bowl?

Forget the additions and subtractions...rush Manning up the middle and get him OFF his spot, he's cooked. It IS that simple.

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Hopefully it's as Easley as just that and the Patriots Willfork him up!

ausbacker said:

It's more the opinion that the Broncos shouldn't be discounted simply because we believe the Patriots made better moves than the Broncos during the offseason.

The Patriots needed a taller WR and signed LaFell. The Broncos went for a speedy, possession type and signed Sanders. Both teams tried to fill needs and both, on face value, appear to have done so as best they could.

The simple reality is the signings will either work or they won't but I'm not stupid enough to discount Denver as readily as some.

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I never said that the Broncos should be discounted. I just think their moves have been overrated. It seems that the media and people around the country think the Broncos built a defense that will rival the Seahawks' (ok, a bit of an exaggeration, but not much).

I don't think the Broncos will be as good as last year just because it is doubtful their offense can be as good as it was last year. I expect them to have a top offense, but I don't expect it to be a historic offense.

Even if their defense gets significantly better, I don't think it will make up for the decline on offense. When they were scoring like they were last year, their defense was almost irrelevant in most games. If you can be up by three or four scores in the first half, you can afford to have an average defense and still win by three TDs.

Joker said:

Did New England and the other 30 teams in the league NOT watch the Super Bowl?

Forget the additions and subtractions...rush Manning up the middle and get him OFF his spot, he's cooked. It IS that simple.

Seattle's Cliff Avril bull-rushed through Broncos right tackle Orlando Franklin and smashed into Manning as the Denver passer looked for Knowshon Moreno. The ball fluttered as Moreno waited for it to land in his hands, but Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith sprinted ahead of the stationary Moreno to pick off the pass.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2014/02/seattle_seahawks_oliterate_pey.html

OK...let me put it THIS way... the entire lineup of adversaries Denver will face this season SAW HIM GET OBLITERATED.The tape does not lie...pressure him out of his little Omaha comfort zone and he's worse than MARK SANCHEZ. Let him stand there and hurl his flutterducks untouched and he'll run out of receivers before completions. Seattle has shown the league the way, you have to be a moron team to NOT emulate them in some fashion.

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Unfortunately, most teams cannot do what the Seahawks did in the Super Bowl. I think Belichick built a defense this offseason that can, but we will have to see.

Rob0729 said:

Unfortunately, most teams cannot do what the Seahawks did in the Super Bowl. I think Belichick built a defense this offseason that can, but we will have to see.

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While most teams can't, I think Denver's first eight opponents have the ability to get Manning off his spot.

IND (tougher without Mathis)
KC
SEA
AZ
NYJ (not great rushers but d-line is good)
SF
SD
NE

Hopefully some of those can punish him and get a "W" over Denver.

I think the Talib signing is way overrated.

They lost DRC who is extremely durable and reliable. Talib is inconsistent and injury prone(weak). I also doubt Talib will play up to the best of his abilities now that he's gotten a big contract.

TJ Ward and Ware were good signings though.

Also

Welker (one hit away...) loss
Peyton (one year older on already weak arm) loss
Schedule (more difficult by yards, not affecting talent but WL record and home field advantage) loss
Division (better, as above) loss
Blueprint to victory, as opponents adjust (SEA made that perfectly clear) loss
Hype, Larger and over-magnified as ever. Now they have lofty expectations and a window too, all which also add pressure. This will get multiplied and over analyzed if they come up short a few times and and/or face unexpected adversity, which they never had to last season until that last game , and we saw how they responded there - loss

edit: also agree Talib not as great as the hype. Just confirmed he was a net large negative DVOA except for a great 3 game stretch mid season last year, which goes with what my eyes saw as well.

Denver is overrated. They did go to the Superbowl last year, but the AFC was weak and the Patriots were too heavily injured.

Denver has never beaten NE with Gronk on the field, and they never will.

Denver loses to most of the play off caliber teams they play, and perform well against bottom feeders.

mgteich said:

If I understand this thread correctly, it is an effort to convince ourselves that Denver hasn't improved.

We're patriot fans. We think that we have a better team. We will criticize any media type who suggests that Denver might be better than we are. Isn't really that simple?

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Seems to me that some of us are more capable of an honest assessment than others. You're welcome to place yourself along the spectrum. Likely levels for Broncos:

RB - Worse
QB - Worse
OL - Better
WR - TBD
TE - Marginally better

CB - Likely a bit worse, as Harris is going to be year 1 off an ACL surgery
S - Significantly better
DT - Worse than most of the year, due to Vickerson cut
DE - Significantly better
LB - Worse early, due to Trevathan injury, then likely better due to Miller's recovery

PATS16N0 said:

Denver is overrated. They did go to the Superbowl last year, but the AFC was weak and the Patriots were too heavily injured.

Denver has never beaten NE with Gronk on the field, and they never will.

Denver loses to most of the play off caliber teams they play, and perform well against bottom feeders.

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You can only beat who you play. The circumstances of the time are the circumstances of the time.

I think they are slightly better, so long as this isn't the year that Manning's age shows.......I think teams will have a better plan of how to defend them.

BTW I am not saying I don't think the Broncos are not better. In fact I think they are overall going to be better. Their talent on paper this year looks overall better than last year. However, it is to a very minor degree that they will improve. I think these moves are massively overstated and not what i would describe as a "put you over the top" kind of off season.

I think Denver is better with Miller, Clady, Ware and Ward.
DRC played well last year and Talib does not have the greatest history of playing 16 games and the LB RB and wr take a hit.

The pats have improved in their secondary and at LB, Dline, WR and TE but take a step back on the oline.

Denver has a tougher schedule and I hope that the pats play focused all 16 games so Manning is slinging balls in 20 degree Jan weather.

Most teams not ravaged by free agency go into a year better than the left the previous year (injury returns).

I give Denver credit for trying to plug some holes and not being afraid to spend.

Better or worse? More "ifs" this year than last, I think. Prater and Welker have serious issues, they've lost Trevathian for much of the yer with a broken knee (ouch). Can't believe they cut Vickerson - did he come in out of shape?

If Ware can get anywhere back to form, he'll be huge - but they lost Philips, who played incredibly well last year. We all know Talib can be really, really good, but DRC is no slouch, either. Decker is better for Manning's style, I think, than Sanders, but I've always liked Sanders.

Ward is a big upgrade - he wasn't the best safety in the FA class, by the way.

They're going to be very good, even coming off an SB loss. Their schedule is pretty brutal, though. They're playing more physical teams and so we'll see how they hold up. If it's not them and New England at the end of the AFC, almost everyone will be surprised.

The new rule enforcement on touching receivers plays into Manning's hands, but the tougher stance regarding receivers picking DBs more than 1-yard downfield takes away a significant part of the Donkeys' playbook...

Denver:
Offense....a major step backwards. Impossible to replace the production of Moreno and Decker...24 TDs combined in 2013. And with Welker suspended, defenses can double up the Thomas boys and force Manning to rely on the new guys. Depth is an issue
Defense....a healthy Denver D is an upgrade...but this D is top heavy having plugged holes with aging stars.
Depth may be Denver's undoing...on both sides of the ball

Rob0729 said:

I never said that the Broncos should be discounted. I just think their moves have been overrated. It seems that the media and people around the country think the Broncos built a defense that will rival the Seahawks' (ok, a bit of an exaggeration, but not much).

I don't think the Broncos will be as good as last year just because it is doubtful their offense can be as good as it was last year. I expect them to have a top offense, but I don't expect it to be a historic offense.

Even if their defense gets significantly better, I don't think it will make up for the decline on offense. When they were scoring like they were last year, their defense was almost irrelevant in most games. If you can be up by three or four scores in the first half, you can afford to have an average defense and still win by three TDs.

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The Broncos roster is significantly better than in 2013. Talib + returning Chris Harris are much better than DRC. Ware is much better than Phillips + Ayers. RB is a fungible position and Moreno is above average at best, this is not a huge loss.

Defensively this team is unquestionably better. The LB corps is weak, but the rest of the defense is strong enough to mask that weakness, especially given that most Broncos games will be high scoring, pass-first games. The LB weakness should only reveal itself against elite TEs or in close games with lots of running.

Offensively, the Broncos should regress to the mean like any other team would. This does not necessarily mean a decline.

To me, the bigger question is how much can a 13-3 team realistically improve in the standings? Given the "any given Sunday" nature of the sport, injuries, lucky/unlucky bounces of the ball, scheduling quirks and the unpredictability of the strength of opponents, it is entirely possible that the Broncos fall to 12-4 despite being a better team.

Your analysis is reasonable. See below for some comments.

DEFENSE
From your analysis, the defense is expected to be better later in the year.

OFFENSE
If Manning is healthy, I don't see the QB or offense as significantly worse. IMHO, the improvement in the OL means a lot to a Manning led offense. I agree that they have lost a lot in the running game.

BOTTOM LINE
The offense is a bit worse. The defense is better, especially late.

IMHO, Denver is one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. Whether we project to be better or not depends on lots and lots of things. As should be the case, DEN and NE are the betting favorites to be in AFC Championship Game.

Deus Irae said:

Seems to me that some of us are more capable of an honest assessment than others. You're welcome to place yourself along the spectrum. Likely levels for Broncos:

RB - Worse
QB - Worse
OL - Better
WR - TBD
TE - Marginally better

CB - Likely a bit worse, as Harris is going to be year 1 off an ACL surgery
S - Significantly better
DT - Worse than most of the year, due to Vickerson cut
DE - Significantly better
LB - Worse early, due to Trevathan injury, then likely better due to Miller's recovery

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I just don't see a post-season team in Denver, and haven't since Peyton Manning showed up. They went deep last year but the AFC play offs was paved for them. I'm expecting this year to be another one-and-done or they'll get a major beat down at the Razor.

We all know what Peyton teams look like in the play offs.

Soft, prone to wilting, can't handle adversity,

Did they improve on paper? Yes. But as always it depends on how attrition plays out.

The way teams win games in week 1 is seldom the way teams win games in week 17 and beyond.

Are the Broncos the better team in week 1? Probably.
Have the Patriots historically been able to defeat teams better than them? Yes.
Has Peyton's teams historically suffered losses to inferior teams? Yes, they happen with more frequency than Pats teams.

mgteich said:

Your analysis is reasonable. See below for some comments.

DEFENSE
From your analysis, the defense is expected to be better later in the year.

OFFENSE
If Manning is healthy, I don't see the QB or offense as significantly worse. IMHO, the improvement in the OL means a lot to a Manning led offense. I agree that they have lost a lot in the running game.

BOTTOM LINE
The offense is a bit worse. The defense is better, especially late.

IMHO, Denver is one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. Whether we project to be better or not depends on lots and lots of things. As should be the case, DEN and NE are the betting favorites to be in AFC Championship Game.

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Yeah, pretty much. I think Manning's arm is likely to weaken over the course of the season, as it did last year, which is why I marked down the QB spot. Outside of that, the offense questions boil down to:

Will Welker be Welker?
Can Sanders and the rookie (Latimer) make up for the loss of Decker?
Can the RBs make up for the loss of Moreno?

Question 1 probably hinges on Manning not hanging WWW out to dry again.
Question 2, somewhat dependent on question 1, probably isn't as crucial as we think, because I expect Denver to make adaptations rather than hope for a straight replacement.
Question 3 is where I see the most potential for a dropoff.

Barring injury, the defense should be better at all 3 levels by the end of the year, unless Ware is running out of steam.

NE should be much improved, assuming health. Denver should be much improved, assuming health. Interesting times...

Offense
On offense in the prior year, they were #1 at both Offensive yards and Redzone efficiency. Lofty numbers that will be difficult to reproduce.

Demaryius Thomas - 1430 yards - 14 TD
Eric Decker - 1288 yards - 11 TD
Wes Welker - 778 yards - 10 TD
Julius Thomas - 788 yards - 12 TD
Moreno (Pass) - 548 yards - 3 TD
Moreno (Rush) - 1038 yards - 10 TD

Additions: Emmanual Sanders, High round pick WR

• Decker's production is gone
• Welker's sustainability grows more tenuous
• Moreno is gone

Key Take aways:

• a lot of lost production from the prior year.
• Team will depend on DT and Sanders

Running Game to the rescue?

PY Rush Rankings:

• Rush offense: #17
• Yards/Game: #15

Did anyone fear their running game?: Not much. Just Moreno.

Source of salvation?

• Key offensive players stay healthy
• O-Line improves substantially

Conclusion:
The offense is in danger of a decline over prior year.