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To be totally honest, if Brady went down I would feel more confident seeing Jimmy G come in than Mallett.
And that's what this whole thing may end up coming down to....the fact that Ryan Mallett is so ineffective that he makes a raw rookie with limited knowledge of the playbook look fantastic. I don't know how much Belichick will factor in his knowledge of the scheme and ability to change things up, etc, which would be my biggest concern.
I suppose Belichick has to weigh shoddier play vs better knowledge of the system.
This is a toss up to try and figure out, and thankfully we'll find out in 40 hrs or so.