This Week's Trade and Eliminating a Fatal Flaw

First, the entire Mankins situation has run it's course in my mind. Kick Cannon inside, find a combination of Stork and Connelly that works and things should be fine. Really all there is to say there provided that Wendell stays off the field. Are they thin on o-line? Absolutely, but it won't be a fatal flaw. That flaw has existed elsewhere in this offense for five years and this past offseason was a clear indication of an attempt to solve it. The acquisition of Wright solidified my theory that it was a major point of emphasis with the offense going into the season this year.

They've always been good in the slot, good in the seam more recently, and at times serviceable on the outside. The issue that has ultimately lead to the dismantling of the offense in the post season (ignoring injuries) is the fact that some teams are able to easily matchup because of NE's limited personnel. They have always and will continue to move the ball well between the twenties. They have always had good, agile players at the skill positions and have been able to scheme up separation provided they consistently win on 1st down. Without Gronk, they never really have had the ability to win with body positioning which is particularly important on 3rd down and, the big one, red zone. Obviously Gronk is a world beater when on the field, but hinging an entire offense around a player susceptible to injury is asking for problems. It was on full display this past year where without Gronk the team was glaring ineffective in the red area. So how does one address that?

First, get a player who can line up in the slot and win with body positioning. It opens things up when you run your bunch sets and stack Amendola and Edelman behind the larger player. That opening can be especially compounded when you have a 6'7 world beater on the other side to account for and creates a true pick your poison situation for defenses. It forces early coverage declaration from the safeties and opens up the myriad of checks teams with 37 year old Hall of Fame QB's have at their disposal. So they added LaFell who fits this role beautifully. While the "get bigger" emphasis is applicable here, the acquisition of LaFell wasn't that in a vacuum. He's a weapon in 3rd down and red zone which was the team's greatest weakness this past year.

Consider for a moment what defines a "championship offense". Are they usually the league leaders in points and yardage? Occasionally. Do they move the ball with blistering speed down the field? Sometimes. Are they easily matched up against if you have the right personnel? Never. So where are they exceptional? Clutch areas. 3rd down and red zone. You win in those two areas with two things; 1)
versatility and 2) redundancy. If the defense has larger defensive backs and choses to play tight, you have Gronk, Thompkins, Wright, Lafell, and Dobson all fully capable of lining up and winning off of physicality and body positioning. That's five good players capable of winning in this manner. When was the last time they have had this? Never. Do we want to be agile and execute a surgical, diagramed offense to carve up their underbelly? You've got Edelman, Amendola, and Vereen all there to do so. Put them on the field in a mix of skill sets? That, my friends is what we refer to as diversified lethality. Further, consider redundancy as it relates to injury. Disregarding Gronk, as there is no substitute for Gronk on the planet, every single skill position player on this roster has another one capable of handling some of the same duties as the other. Thompkins and Dobson, LaFell and Wright, Edelman and Amendola, Vereen and White. Interchangeable pieces on the chess board designed to not only confuse defenses and hide intentions but to give some immunity to the attrition that is sure to happen.


What was the great hallmark of the championship defenses? They were amorphous entities designed to implement opponent specific gameplans and execute them at the highest level. That requires
versatility and redundancy. The offense has yet to have this and it's why that while they were statistically impressive they often found themselves falling short in the post season. They have it this season. I know everyone is excited about the defense this year, but pay special attention to how this offenses morphs week to week. It will be up there in the fantasy stats, but it should be dominant in the football ones.

jays52 said:

First, the entire Mankins situation has run it's course in my mind. Kick Cannon inside,

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And that was where I stopped reading.

I've been of the opinion for some time that the Patriots O lacked balance @jays52. As you rightfully point out, now, the Patriots have Gronkowski (6'6), Tim Wright (6'4), Michael Hoomanaiwanui (6'4), Aaron Dobson (6'3), Bryan Tyms* (6'3), Brandon LaFell (6'2), Kenbrell Thompkins (6'1), Danny Amendola (5'11) and Julian Edelman (5'10) as the Patriots pass catching WR/TE brigade. It's a reasonable mixture of size and skillsets which should help Brady in the Red Zone. NBA coaches continually harp on about not being able to coach size. Well, that size significantly improves Brady's target area inside the 20.

The team doesn't have the glossy names or reputations like the Broncos or the Saints but I'm rather pleased with the Patriots approach to improving the Offense this season.

To anticipate Deus, I wish you'd post more often, Jay. This is great stuff. Some thoughts:

jays52 said:

First, the entire Mankins situation has run it's course in my mind. Kick Cannon inside, find a combination of Stork and Connelly that works and things should be fine. Really all there is to say there provided that Wendell stays off the field.

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That's my personal take on it. I'd love to see Cannon kick inside. If Josh Kline can outplay Connolly and make Connolly a 3-position backup, so much the better. "Wendell stays off the field" is key, IMO.

jays52 said:

Are they thin on o-line? Absolutely, but it won't be a fatal flaw. That flaw has existed elsewhere in this offense for five years and this past offseason was a clear indication of an attempt to solve it. The acquisition of Wright solidified my theory that it was a major point of emphasis with the offense going into the season this year.

They've always been good in the slot, good in the seam more recently, and at times serviceable on the outside. The issue that has ultimately lead to the dismantling of the offense in the post season (ignoring injuries) is the fact that some teams are able to easily matchup because of NE's limited personnel. They have always and will continue to move the ball well between the twenties. They have always had good, agile players at the skill positions and have been able to scheme up separation provided they consistently win on 1st down. Without Gronk, they never really have had the ability to win with body positioning which is particularly important on 3rd down and, the big one, red zone. Obviously Gronk is a world beater when on the field, but hinging an entire offense around a player susceptible to injury is asking for problems. It was on full display this past year where without Gronk the team was glaring ineffective in the red area. So how does one address that?

First, get a player who can line up in the slot and win with body positioning. It opens things up when you run your bunch sets and stack Amendola and Edelman behind the larger player. That opening can be especially compounded when you have a 6'7 world beater on the other side to account for and creates a true pick your poison situation for defenses. It forces early coverage declaration from the safeties and opens up the myriad of checks teams with 37 year old Hall of Fame QB's have at their disposal. So they added LaFell who fits this role beautifully. While the "get bigger" emphasis is applicable here, the acquisition of LaFell wasn't that in a vacuum. He's a weapon in 3rd down and red zone which was the team's greatest weakness this past year.

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I think that Wright can also play this role, which is part of your point with "redundancy".

jays52 said:

Consider for a moment what defines a "championship offense". Are they usually the league leaders in points and yardage? Occasionally. Do they move the ball with blistering speed down the field? Sometimes. Are they easily matched up against if you have the right personnel? Never. So where are they exceptional? Clutch areas. 3rd down and red zone. You win in those two areas with two things; 1)versatility and 2) redundancy. If the defense has larger defensive backs and choses to play tight, you have Gronk, Thompkins, Wright, Lafell, and Dobson all fully capable of lining up and winning off of physicality and body positioning. That's five good players capable of winning in this manner. When was the last time they have had this? Never. Do we want to be agile and execute a surgical, diagramed offense to carve up their underbelly? You've got Edelman, Amendola, and Vereen all there to do so. Put them on the field in a mix of skill sets? That, my friends is what we refer to as diversified lethality. Further, consider redundancy as it relates to injury. Disregarding Gronk, as there is no substitute for Gronk on the planet, every single skill position player on this roster has another one capable of handling some of the same duties as the other. Thompkins and Dobson, LaFell and Wright, Edelman and Amendola, Vereen and White. Interchangeable pieces on the chess board designed to not only confuse defenses and hide intentions but to give some immunity to the attrition that is sure to happen.

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Love it. I think that redundancy is not only important for injury, but also to allow the offense to "overload" at times. The combination of diversification and overload/redundancy is what I like so much, and it goes 10-11 skill players deep, including the backs.

jays52 said:

What was the great hallmark of the championship defenses? They were amorphous entities designed to implement opponent specific gameplans and execute them at the highest level. That requires versatility and redundancy. The offense has yet to have this and it's why that while they were statistically impressive they often found themselves falling short in the post season. They have it this season. I know everyone is excited about the defense this year, but pay special attention to how this offenses morphs week to week. It will be up there in the fantasy stats, but it should be dominant in the football ones.

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I said something to this effect in another thread. Other than Gronk and possibly Edelman there's no "elite" option, but there's great depth and breadth. Amendola, LaFell, Wright, Thompkins, Vereen, White, Ridley and even Develin all have very diverse skill sets that compliment each other nicely, especially if the RBs are integrated more in the passing attack. It's closer to the "New Orleans" model that I've aspired to for so long.

I would add that the hallmark of a great offense IMO is one that top defenses cannot match up against and shut down. Some of the most prolific offenses of the modern era failed this test, including the 2007 and 2010-2012 Pats' offenses and the 2013 Broncos offense. The various versions of the 2009-2013 Saints have always been my model for the most difficult offense to match up against.

mayoclinic said:

I would add that the hallmark of a great offense IMO is one that top defenses cannot match up against and shut down. Some of the most prolific offenses of the modern era failed this test, including the 2007 and 2010-2012 Pats' offenses and the 2013 Broncos offense. The various versions of the 2009-2013 Saints have always been my model for the most difficult offense to match up against.

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This, exactly, time 100

So much good posting/posters in this thread. I know we were just talking about it in the Mo thread, but thanks for jumping back in with more posting, great stuff.

Jays whats up buddy. Good read!

Lots of great stuff in here and thoughts that I've had, but (for whatever reason) couldn't really articulate.

I think the (in)tangible that brings it all together is the lack of ego among all our weapons. TB doesn't have to (though he wouldn't either) put up with a player who demands the ball. He'll be able to do what he does best (spread the ball around and be able to see the field for the better option) and not lock on a single player for any situation.

And if the defense is as good as we expect, he'll probably get about 15-30 more drives this season.

mayoclinic said:

I would add that the hallmark of a great offense IMO is one that top defenses cannot match up against and shut down. Some of the most prolific offenses of the modern era failed this test, including the 2007 and 2010-2012 Pats' offenses and the 2013 Broncos offense. The various versions of the 2009-2013 Saints have always been my model for the most difficult offense to match up against.

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Yes. Been my mantra since December 2007 when the elite Ds (Ravens, Giants) figured out how to stop the Pats

mayoclinic said:

I would add that the hallmark of a great offense IMO is one that top defenses cannot match up against and shut down. Some of the most prolific offenses of the modern era failed this test, including the 2007 and 2010-2012 Pats' offenses and the 2013 Broncos offense. The various versions of the 2009-2013 Saints have always been my model for the most difficult offense to match up against.

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Every offense can be shut down. Every defense can be lit up. Because the Patriots have been one-sided and/or injured, we've been forced to see what happens when teams limit that offense. I think that's led a lot of people here to forget what happened a couple of times to the 'great' Patriots defenses during the SB years, and to the off games that even teams like the 2000 Ravens (36 points to the Jaguars) and 1985 Bears (38 points to the Dolphins) had.

I feel like I'm in church every time this guy speaks at length. Such flowing eloquence.

I'm as excited as anyone with all the tall receiving options. The true question is who does Brady trust? Tf'nB won Super Bowls throwing to the open guy. He has consistently been shut down when he seems to lock into his "favorite" reads (he looked much better post Moss, ditto WWW from a hit the open guy POV).

I just hope Jules doesn't become WWW-redux, and he doesn't look to Gronk 1st. This team, as you have mentioned, is loaded with talented pass catchers. I've said it before, and I'm saying it again, Brady needs to get back to his "my favorite receiver is the open receiver," mindset. That's how championships are won from the offensive standpoint.

All that said, it's tough to be anything but "pumped and jacked," about the depth in our defensive secondary...Dennard at safety with Harmon tonight? Hell, that Swanson kid with the FF/FR? I think Browner may be closer to a cut than starter week 4...

Edit: by no means am I saying Browner will or should be cut, simply that he is not the clear starter many of us assumed upon hearing of his signing.

woolster22 said:

I'm as excited as anyone with all the tall receiving options. The true question is who does Brady trust? Tf'nB won Super Bowls throwing to the open guy. He has consistently been shut down when he seems to lock into his "favorite" reads (he looked much better post Moss, ditto WWW from a hit the open guy POV).

I just hope Jules doesn't become WWW-redux, and he doesn't look to Gronk 1st. This team, as you have mentioned, is loaded with talented pass catchers. I've said it before, and I'm saying it again, Brady needs to get back to his "my favorite receiver is the open receiver," mindset. That's how championships are won from the offensive standpoint.

All that said, it's tough to be anything but "pumped and jacked," about the depth in our defensive secondary...Dennard at safety with Harmon tonight? Hell, that Swanson kid with the FF/FR? I think Browner may be closer to a cut than starter week 4...

Edit: by no means am I saying Browner will or should be cut, simply that he is not the clear starter many of us assumed upon hearing of his signing.

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It doesn't matter who he looks to first, and I certainly hope Gronk or Edelman ARE the first reads. They're the best pass catchers on the team, but the great thing about this team is that Tom Brady is the quarterback - not Geno Smith.

If the first read isn't open he'll look elsewhere.

There isn't much point in not looking to Gronk or Edelman right away as they'll produce the biggest or most consistent plays if open. I'd only want someone else to become the first read if they pull a double team on Gronk like we did to Gonzalez last season.

woolster22 said:

I'm as excited as anyone with all the tall receiving options. The true question is who does Brady trust? Tf'nB won Super Bowls throwing to the open guy. He has consistently been shut down when he seems to lock into his "favorite" reads (he looked much better post Moss, ditto WWW from a hit the open guy POV).

I just hope Jules doesn't become WWW-redux, and he doesn't look to Gronk 1st. This team, as you have mentioned, is loaded with talented pass catchers. I've said it before, and I'm saying it again, Brady needs to get back to his "my favorite receiver is the open receiver," mindset. That's how championships are won from the offensive standpoint.

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Brady locks onto one receiver when he doesn't trust his protection. Edelman and Gronk win most of their one-on-ones, so they are rightly the first reads, but they regularly get balls that are tough to catch when someone else is wide open. Tom will certainly be more inclined to go through his reads this year with 4-5 guys who can get open on any play, but if the offensive line doesn't hold-up, he'll won't be able to get through those reads.

Jays set aside the OL issue early on, but I think that remains the weakest link. Did Cannon ever step inside to G last night? Kline literally fell on his face in pass protection last night, and while he may do as well as Mankins in pass protection, he's not going to run block as well, so 3rd and 3 just became 3rd and 5. Stork might replace Wendell, but the weak point of the offense didn't really get stronger. Thankfully, just about everything else on offense (except the GOAT) did, and our defense is even more improved.

PS Agree on Browner. He might have been the next surprise cut, if he didn't have 4 weeks during which one of the younger CBs can learn to be our 2nd or 3rd best safety.

PatsWickedPissah said:

Yes. Been my mantra since December 2007 when the elite Ds (Ravens, Giants) figured out how to stop the Pats

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The Pats have done it to themselves.

When Gronk is catching 17 TDs that's not a good thing. When Moss is catching 25 TDs that's not a good thing. Basically, your offensive success is contingent on 1 WR/TE being healthy and in Beast mode.

Last post season the KC Chiefs game plan vs Indy revolved around Jamal Charles. What happens? Charles gets injured and takes half the KC game plan with him. Chiefs lose.

The Browner situation is interesting. Are others playing ahead of him based on performance or based on his unavailability for weeks 1-4? There's not much guaranteed money in his contract.

jays52 said:

First, the entire Mankins situation has run it's course in my mind. Kick Cannon inside, find a combination of Stork and Connelly that works and things should be fine. Really all there is to say there provided that Wendell stays off the field. Are they thin on o-line? Absolutely, but it won't be a fatal flaw. That flaw has existed elsewhere in this offense for five years and this past offseason was a clear indication of an attempt to solve it. The acquisition of Wright solidified my theory that it was a major point of emphasis with the offense going into the season this year.

They've always been good in the slot, good in the seam more recently, and at times serviceable on the outside. The issue that has ultimately lead to the dismantling of the offense in the post season (ignoring injuries) is the fact that some teams are able to easily matchup because of NE's limited personnel. They have always and will continue to move the ball well between the twenties. They have always had good, agile players at the skill positions and have been able to scheme up separation provided they consistently win on 1st down. Without Gronk, they never really have had the ability to win with body positioning which is particularly important on 3rd down and, the big one, red zone. Obviously Gronk is a world beater when on the field, but hinging an entire offense around a player susceptible to injury is asking for problems. It was on full display this past year where without Gronk the team was glaring ineffective in the red area. So how does one address that?

First, get a player who can line up in the slot and win with body positioning. It opens things up when you run your bunch sets and stack Amendola and Edelman behind the larger player. That opening can be especially compounded when you have a 6'7 world beater on the other side to account for and creates a true pick your poison situation for defenses. It forces early coverage declaration from the safeties and opens up the myriad of checks teams with 37 year old Hall of Fame QB's have at their disposal. So they added LaFell who fits this role beautifully. While the "get bigger" emphasis is applicable here, the acquisition of LaFell wasn't that in a vacuum. He's a weapon in 3rd down and red zone which was the team's greatest weakness this past year.

Consider for a moment what defines a "championship offense". Are they usually the league leaders in points and yardage? Occasionally. Do they move the ball with blistering speed down the field? Sometimes. Are they easily matched up against if you have the right personnel? Never. So where are they exceptional? Clutch areas. 3rd down and red zone. You win in those two areas with two things; 1)
versatility and 2) redundancy. If the defense has larger defensive backs and choses to play tight, you have Gronk, Thompkins, Wright, Lafell, and Dobson all fully capable of lining up and winning off of physicality and body positioning. That's five good players capable of winning in this manner. When was the last time they have had this? Never. Do we want to be agile and execute a surgical, diagramed offense to carve up their underbelly? You've got Edelman, Amendola, and Vereen all there to do so. Put them on the field in a mix of skill sets? That, my friends is what we refer to as diversified lethality. Further, consider redundancy as it relates to injury. Disregarding Gronk, as there is no substitute for Gronk on the planet, every single skill position player on this roster has another one capable of handling some of the same duties as the other. Thompkins and Dobson, LaFell and Wright, Edelman and Amendola, Vereen and White. Interchangeable pieces on the chess board designed to not only confuse defenses and hide intentions but to give some immunity to the attrition that is sure to happen.


What was the great hallmark of the championship defenses? They were amorphous entities designed to implement opponent specific gameplans and execute them at the highest level. That requires
versatility and redundancy. The offense has yet to have this and it's why that while they were statistically impressive they often found themselves falling short in the post season. They have it this season. I know everyone is excited about the defense this year, but pay special attention to how this offenses morphs week to week. It will be up there in the fantasy stats, but it should be dominant in the football ones.

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I realize my initial post was a bit harsh so I wanted to thank you for taking the time to write all of this and hope you write more thoughts like this again.

My snark was trying to emphasize how tired I am of hearing people say "Cannon will be a guard!" for the last 3-4 years. It hasn't happened and it isn't happening, just like that 1st or 2nd round pick some people thought we were getting for Mallett.

Yeah I'm not sure why people were so convinced that the Pats were going to simply stick with what they had behind Gronk in favor of the 3WR set. The team clearly believed that they could have improved at TE2 while still emphasizing 3WR's and that's clearly what they they did. I said since the offseason of 2012-2013 that the Pats needed more size in the passing game. Back then, it was regarding the WR's but then Hernandez literally blew away the competition and it became a need at TE as well. Take the 2012 AFCCG, for example. The Pats were moving the ball at will until they hit the red area, then bogged down. The reason for that was a complete lack of size on the field to win box out/jump ball situations.

Now, with the acquisition of Wright, it appears that the Pats were at least aware of that fact. Whether or not Wright is what we need behind Gronk (or in his stead if Gronk goes down) remains to be seen. What's also up for debate is if they brought Wright in because the plan on running more 2TE sets this year than we anticipated or if they can't count on Gronk to stay healthy and play a full 16 game season. Or maybe it's both. That's how I lean on the matter.

That said, the true weakness on this team until proven otherwise is interior pass protection. That's been the main weakness of this team the past two years and the Pats only threw a monkey wrench into the mix with the trade of Mankins. This team has a lot of varying weapons in the passing game, but it's not going to matter if the opposing D is generating pressure up the A-Gap (particularly if they don't have to blitz and if the 1-tech is having his way with whomever we throw out at C and/or LG).

VrabelJr said:

I realize my initial post was a bit harsh so I wanted to thank you for taking the time to write all of this and hope you write more thoughts like this again.

My snark was trying to emphasize how tired I am of hearing people say "Cannon will be a guard!" for the last 3-4 years. It hasn't happened and it isn't happening, just like that 1st or 2nd round pick some people thought we were getting for Mallett.

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One piece of evidence that may point to it actually happening this year (at least in week 1): If you subscribe to the theory that the veteran starters don't play in preseason game 4, then the five starting OL in week 1 will be Solder-Connolly-Wendell-Cannon-Vollmer. Given I don't see Solder or Vollmer moving from the tackle positions, Cannon appears to be a candidate for a guard spot in the starting five.