Logan Mankins Traded

juny said:

http://bostonherald.com/sports/patr...ing_down_logan_mankins_and_the_pats_o_line_in

"Finally, of Mankins' 6.5 sacks, three came in Week 8 against the Dolphins (two against Jared Odrick, one against Olivier Vernon), and the one at left tackle was against Ravens outside linebacker Terrell Suggs."

"The Patriots scored more touchdowns and had a higher rushing average while running behind Mankins than any offensive lineman on the team. If they needed yards on the ground last season, they clearly wanted to run behind Mankins and Solder."

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That confirms what virtually everyone has been saying: While still an excellent run blocker, Mankins isn't the player he once was in pass protection.

ATippett56 said:

Who is a better offensive guard: Mankins or Kline?

Who is a better offensive guard: Mankins or Devey?

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Who is a better Safety: McCourty or Tavon Wilson?

Who is a better CB: Revis or Logan Ryan?

Who is a better Receiver: Tim Wright or Josh Boyce?

What is a better pick: 4th rounder or nothing?

But, oh yeah, you're the guy who keeps repeating that he is focused on the "big picture". Classic.

patchick said:

Let's add it up. Assuming Mankins would have been cut at the end of the season regardless, as most seem to agree, the value proposition seems to be:

1 season of Logan Mankins
vs.
3 seasons of Tim Wright + a 4th-round draft pick + $6.2 million net gain cap space for 2014 or 2015

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Yeah, but ATippet56 doesn't think you're looking at the "big picture".

rochrist said:

Both Gronk and Hernandez came in and were up and running from the word go pretty much. Of course they had a full training camp behind them, but it's possible Wright will get /some/ run.

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"....Of course they had a full training camp behind them......"

That shouldn't be an aside. Those are the most important 10 words in that post.

I look forward to Tim Wright being a useful weapon for this offense around playoff time. Anything earlier is icing on the cake.

JackBauer said:

That confirms what virtually everyone has been saying: While still an excellent run blocker, Mankins isn't the player he once was in pass protection.

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Not the same pass protector as he was in his prime, but still I would consider those numbers from last year to be solid. Of the 6.5 (according to Howe), 1 was out of position at LT, 3 in one terrible performance (everyone has an off day). That leaves 2.5 for the rest of the year.
The Pats have enough issues with pressure up the middle, and now they are worse off than last year. However, if we soon see contract extensions for some key guys, then overall this move can be seen as a plus. But as of right now, I see this as a negative move.

My thoughts on the trade.

I believe in the long run this move makes us better clearly. No one seems to be debating that. So I would like to address the short term (this year particularly) and how this effects it as well as Logan Mankins as a player and his value + Wright's value for this year.

My first thought turns to the timing of this trade. I think it (looking back) was clear this was something the Patriots were considering all of training camp. The movement in the line indicates to me they clearly wanted to get an idea of what life without Mankins looked like. The 3rd Panthers game was particularly telling.

Mankins value this year is something we can only guess about. However I would say the most likely accurate guess is to look at what he did last year and expect a slight drop off. Last year when healthy he was IMO clearly a top run blocking guard and clearly an average pass blocking guard. So this year I would guess he will still be probably be a top 5 run blocking guard and an average to below average pass blocking guard.

It is my personal contention that to win the Superbowl your ability to pass block is MUCH more important than your ability to run block. Most elite Ds will shut down your run game anyway no matter how much you invest in it (the exception being rare ala 1997 Denver).

This team is not going to be an exception. Running the ball is not going to get it done in the big show against a D like Seattle. We need to just play great D and hope to protecting Brady enough so he can put up a few scores. So the question in my mind instantly is "can we find a guy on our line that can pass block as well or better than Mankins". If we can I think we are giving up very little to nothing as far as a chance for a potential championship goes.

This we don't know yet. However the Panthers game is a solid indication we might have some players that are suitable pass blocking replacements. However, for now we are in wait and see mode.

Now as far as Wright's value I think he potentially has a good amount. It is my opinion that to succeed in the passing game in the playoffs you want bigger more physical pass catching options that are hard to knock off routes. I think his value in these kind of game could certainly be helpful. Not to mention two of his best games last year was against Seattle & SF.

Am I trying to say this improves our chances overall? Not really. But it is certainly premature to suggest it hurts them. I think it has a fairly likely chance to be either.

juny said:

Not the same pass protector as he was in his prime, but still I would consider those numbers from last year to be solid. Of the 6.5 (according to Howe), 1 was out of position at LT, 3 in one terrible performance (everyone has an off day). That leaves 2.5 for the rest of the year.
The Pats have enough issues with pressure up the middle, and now they are worse off than last year. However, if we soon see contract extensions for some key guys, then overall this move can be seen as a plus. But as of right now, I see this as a negative move.

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I think it remains to be seen whether or not they're worse off than last year. I think if they can upgrade Wendell the + there may, on balance, outweigh the - of losing Mankins.

Every time this team jettisons a former great player it is perceived as a negative move. But it always seems to work out or be a good decision.

JackBauer said:

I think it remains to be seen whether or not they're worse off than last year. I think if they can upgrade Wendell the + there may, on balance, outweigh the - of losing Mankins.

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Frankly I'm not worried at all about the pass protection without Mankins vs with Mankins. We have a number of young players who can go into that spot, and the pass blocking wont really get worse than Mankins. Young interior OL usually get the pass blocking down pretty quickly. Its the run blocking that could be in question.
Which creates another thought.

We added a guy who is IMO much more of a big WR than a miniTE. (He is closer in size to Dobson or Lafell than Hernandez).
We now have:

Gronkowski
Edelman
Amendola
Dobson
Thompkins
Lafell
Wright
Vereen

We traded away our best run blocker who is average at best as a pass blocker.
The point of emphasis is now that you cannot touch a receiver, and our receivers happen to be bigger than we have ever had before.

Could BB be looking at throwing the ball 800 times and taking advantage of having Brady, and the rule emphasis changes?

AndyJohnson said:

Frankly I'm not worried at all about the pass protection without Mankins vs with Mankins. We have a number of young players who can go into that spot, and the pass blocking wont really get worse than Mankins. Young interior OL usually get the pass blocking down pretty quickly. Its the run blocking that could be in question.
Which creates another thought.

We added a guy who is IMO much more of a big WR than a miniTE. (He is closer in size to Dobson or Lafell than Hernandez).
We now have:

Gronkowski
Edelman
Amendola
Dobson
Thompkins
Lafell
Wright
Vereen

We traded away our best run blocker who is average at best as a pass blocker.
The point of emphasis is now that you cannot touch a receiver, and our receivers happen to be bigger than we have ever had before.

Could BB be looking at throwing the ball 800 times and taking advantage of having Brady, and the rule emphasis changes?

Click to expand...

I don't know about 800 times, but I would not be surprised to see a much larger percentage of 3rd down plays be passing plays, even if they're short yardage.

With the super ticky-tack rules, going with the spread and 7-10 yard dink & dunk Football, there's a high chance of getting numerous holding penalties.

Sicilian said:

I don't know about 800 times, but I would not be surprised to see a much larger percentage of 3rd down plays be passing plays, even if they're short yardage.

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800 was an intentional exaggeration, but throwing more than any other offense has is a possibility.

Big-T said:

With the super ticky-tack rules, going with the spread and 7-10 yard dink & dunk Football, there's a high chance of getting numerous holding penalties.

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Add in bigger receivers who can get off the line easier and allow you to get the ball out quickly to avoid the pass rush.

A day later and I still can't believe this actually happened.

Hopefully Wright turns into a good pick up.

I hate to say this, but I agree with Michael Felger. You get beyond the emotions of this trade, the fact is the Pats traded away a guard. Not even an elite guard. Just a good guard.

I was always a Logan Mankins fan, but I still don't think losing him with affect the Pats at all in the wins and loss column. It will hurt the running game, but I don't think it will hurt the passing game.

AndyJohnson said:

Frankly I'm not worried at all about the pass protection without Mankins vs with Mankins. We have a number of young players who can go into that spot, and the pass blocking wont really get worse than Mankins. Young interior OL usually get the pass blocking down pretty quickly. Its the run blocking that could be in question.
Which creates another thought.

We added a guy who is IMO much more of a big WR than a miniTE. (He is closer in size to Dobson or Lafell than Hernandez).
We now have:

Gronkowski
Edelman
Amendola
Dobson
Thompkins
Lafell
Wright
Vereen

We traded away our best run blocker who is average at best as a pass blocker.
The point of emphasis is now that you cannot touch a receiver, and our receivers happen to be bigger than we have ever had before.

Could BB be looking at throwing the ball 800 times and taking advantage of having Brady, and the rule emphasis changes?

Click to expand...

I am thinking the same thing, Andy.

Part of me thinks that b/c of the injury history with Gronk and Dobson, BB doesn't want to finish 30th in red zone offense again w/o a big target for TB to throw to.

What concerns me is having a 37 year old QB throwing it 600+ times during the regular season -especially when the line allowed 40 sacks last year and did not upgrade the talent level appreciably. Maybe that number goes down as LM seemed to have trouble at times in pass protection..?

robertweathers said:

I am thinking the same thing, Andy.

Part of me thinks that b/c of the injury history with Gronk and Dobson, BB doesn't want to finish 30th in red zone offense again w/o a big target for TB to throw to.

What concerns me is having a 37 year old QB throwing it 600+ times during the regular season -especially when the line allowed 40 sacks last year and did not upgrade the talent level appreciably. Maybe that number goes down as LM seemed to have trouble at times in pass protection..?

Click to expand...

Bigger, stronger receivers, emphasis on contact, ability of receivers to run free, plus spreading the field and having something like Gronk, Edelman, Lafell, Dobson, Vereen out there = lots of quick passes before the pass rush has a chance to get near him.
I'm saying increase the amount of passes by adding additional ones that takew advantage of all of this and happen so quickly they can't lay a finger on Brady.

AndyJohnson said:

Bigger, stronger receivers, emphasis on contact, ability of receivers to run free, plus spreading the field and having something like Gronk, Edelman, Lafell, Dobson, Vereen out there = lots of quick passes before the pass rush has a chance to get near him.
I'm saying increase the amount of passes by adding additional ones that takew advantage of all of this and happen so quickly they can't lay a finger on Brady.

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That's how Peyton tends to stay upright. It's certainly not because his teams have spent so many resources stockpiling offensive linemen.

AndyJohnson said:

Bigger, stronger receivers, emphasis on contact, ability of receivers to run free, plus spreading the field and having something like Gronk, Edelman, Lafell, Dobson, Vereen out there = lots of quick passes before the pass rush has a chance to get near him.
I'm saying increase the amount of passes by adding additional ones that takew advantage of all of this and happen so quickly they can't lay a finger on Brady.

Click to expand...

I'm good with all of that!

AndyJohnson said:

Frankly I'm not worried at all about the pass protection without Mankins vs with Mankins. We have a number of young players who can go into that spot, and the pass blocking wont really get worse than Mankins. Young interior OL usually get the pass blocking down pretty quickly. Its the run blocking that could be in question.
Which creates another thought.

We added a guy who is IMO much more of a big WR than a miniTE. (He is closer in size to Dobson or Lafell than Hernandez).
We now have:

Gronkowski
Edelman
Amendola
Dobson
Thompkins
Lafell
Wright
Vereen

We traded away our best run blocker who is average at best as a pass blocker.
The point of emphasis is now that you cannot touch a receiver, and our receivers happen to be bigger than we have ever had before.

Could BB be looking at throwing the ball 800 times and taking advantage of having Brady, and the rule emphasis changes?

Click to expand...

Interesting thoughts. Regarding run blocking and this rookie crop, I thought Fleming looked pretty good out there as a road grader type. Definitely bears watching, I think.