2014 Season Results

I had a dream we got Pats/Giants 3 for this Super Bowl a few weeks ago. I'm going with that.

W @ Miami Dolphins
W @ Minnesota Vikings
W Oakland Raiders
.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs
.5 Cincinnati Bengals
W @ Buffalo Bills
W New York Jets
W Chicago Bears
.5 Denver Broncos
W @ Indianapolis Colts
W Detroit Lions
.5 @ Green Bay Packers
.5 @ San Diego Chargers
W Miami Dolphins
W @ New York Jets
W Buffalo Bills

.5 denotes 50/50 outcomes. Most of these teams have a pass rush that can disrupt the Patriots timing and frankly, as good as the Defense has looked, it's still an unproven unit right now.

Honestly, I see 16-0 as the ceiling (if everything breaks the Patriots way) and 12-4 as the floor. Here's the caveat for a 14+ win season: Gronkowski must retain health and play all 16 games.

I'll go with 14-2 or 13-3 as the most likely records.

8-8

My guess would be 13-3

W @ Miami Dolphins
W @ Minnesota Vikings
W Oakland Raiders
W @ Kansas City Chiefs
W Cincinnati Bengals
L @ Buffalo Bills
W New York Jets
L Chicago Bears
W Denver Broncos
BYE
W @ Indianapolis Colts
W Detroit Lions
W @ Green Bay Packers
W @ San Diego Chargers
W Miami Dolphins
W @ New York Jets
W Buffalo Bills

Regular season notes:

• The season starts off strong with the Pats holding a 5-0 record, until Buffalo pulls the upset in the Empire state.
• The Pats then demolish the Jets, but drop a tight one against da Bears at home. Something about big WRs (even with Revis/Browner) still scares me. The loss doesn't hamper the Pats at all as they come back out and beat the Donks the following week. Heading into the bye the Pats hold a 7-2 record.
  
• They come out of the bye on absolute fire and don't let up the rest of the season. They finish the season on an 8 game winning streak, 7 of which came after the bye. I do think the Green Bay game will be a close one, but I think the rest will be fairly strong victories for the Pats. The Indy road trip is after a bye and Belichick teams are always good after a bye (10-3 since 2001); therefore I think Andrew Luck's misery against the Pats will continue.

Playoff predictions:
AFC:
1) Pats
2) Broncos
3) Colts
4) Steelers
5) Bengals
6) Titans

NFC:
1) 49ers
2) Bears
3) Eagles
4) Saints
5) Seahawks
6) Packers

Wild Card round:

• Colts over Titans. I have Locker staying healthy long enough to bring the Titans to the playoffs, but it is only Jake Locker. Colts win handily.
• Bengals over Steelers. Andy Dalton finally gets that first playoff win and the Bungles punch their ticket to Foxboro.
• Packers over Eagles. Rodgers and Lacey are too much for Philly.
• Saints over Seahawks. New Orleans finally draws Seattle at home in the playoffs and makes it count.

Divisional round:

• Patriots over Bengals. A week 5 rematch that Brady & BB are ready for. Revis shuts down Green and the pass rush gets to Dalton all game long. Brady throws a pair of TDs and the RBs rush for a trio of scores themselves.
• Colts over Broncos. Peyton got lucky last year with mild weather in Denver, but not this year. Pagano makes Manning's life miserable with a defensive scheme that limits the Donks to only 20 points. The Colts score more than 20 and head to New England.
• 49ers over Packers. Green Bay can't beat San Francisco lately and I don't see that trend changing.
• Bears over Saints. Brees has an off game and that's enough for Chicago to take advantage and win a close one.

Championship round:

• Patriots over Colts. The Patriots defense goes off and demolishes Indianapolis. Think of the 2003 AFCCG.
• Bears over 49ers. Cutler outduels Kaepernick in a shootout. Sets up a Super Bowl XX rematch.

Super Bowl 49:

• Patriots over Bears. Steve Grogan and the '85 Pats shed a tear as Brady wins his 4th by defeating the Bears in Arizona. Julian Edelman is the MVP with 9 catches for 105 yards and 1 TD. Pats win 27-18.

If the Pats OL gels early and most the key players stay relatively healthy, I could see 15-1.

If the OL isn't good it could be 10-6.

God I love being a Pats fan.

I'll go 14-2, I think 15-1 is just as likely, with a possibility of going 16-0. Floor of 11-5. Lots of talent on the schedule this year. But for 14-2, this is how I see it playing out.

@ Dolphins W
@ Vikings W
vs Raiders W
@ Chiefs W
vs Bengals W
@ Bills W
vs Jets W
vs Bears L
vs Broncos W
BYE
@ Colts W
vs Lions W
@ Packers W
@ Chargers L
vs Dolphins W
@ Jets W
vs Bills W

Giving them a floor of 11-5 may seem like a large range considering I fully expect they will put up 15 or 14 wins, but I see a good amount of teams that are all potential losses if a call goes the wrong way or if something goes wrong in the game plan. The games I'd highlight to be potential losses are the Bears, Bengals, @Bills, Chargers, Broncos, Lions, Packers and @Jets.

ESPN's Pats preview includes a forecast like this, courtesy of Advanced Football Analytics, has the Pats loosing the opener, 28-14 in Miami.

That would suck. And surprise. They also have them losing at home against the Jets — which would also suck and surprise.

Uncle Rico said:

ESPN's Pats preview includes a forecast like this, courtesy of Advanced Football Analytics, has the Pats loosing the opener, 28-14 in Miami.

That would suck. And surprise. They also have them losing at home against the Jets — which would also suck and surprise.

Click to expand...

Didn't they have the Pats missing the playoffs last year?

Uncle Rico said:

ESPN's Pats preview includes a forecast like this, courtesy of Advanced Football Analytics, has the Pats loosing the opener, 28-14 in Miami.

That would suck. And surprise. They also have them losing at home against the Jets — which would also suck and surprise.

Click to expand...

I think we should enter the whole season's results into the PatsFans prediction contest (forget what it is called). It would be interesting to see where it ranked at the end of the year. One of PatsFan's writers could write an article about the results.

BradyFTW! said:

Didn't they have the Pats missing the playoffs last year?

Click to expand...

It wasn't this 'Advanced Football Analytics', but it was another part of TWWL - their magazine.

The specifics are hidden behind a pay wall now, but if I recall correctly they had the Patriots going 8-8 based on their irrefutable data analysis and projections. The mag had the Pats missing the playoff and Miami winning the AFC East.

A few of their other misses include the Bucs, Falcons, Redskins and Texans all making the playoffs - as a point of reference, those teams went a combined 13-51, and earned the number 1, 2, 6 and 7 spots in the draft - while they had the Patriots (12-4), Saints (11-5), Panthers (12-4), Colts (11-5), Eagles (10-6) and Chargers missing the postseason.

While getting 50% of the playoff teams correct is the definition of mediocre prognostication, give them credit for getting the two conference champions right - though that was offset by their prediction of Denver dropping 34 points on Seattle to win the Super Bowl.

The Mag ranks all 32 NFL teams - ESPN The Magazine

jmt57 said:

It wasn't this 'Advanced Football Analytics', but it was another part of TWWL - their magazine.

The specifics are hidden behind a pay wall now, but if I recall correctly they had the Patriots going 8-8 based on their irrefutable data analysis and projections. The mag had the Pats missing the playoff and Miami winning the AFC East.

A few of their other misses include the Bucs, Falcons, Redskins and Texans all making the playoffs - as a point of reference, those teams went a combined 13-51, and earned the number 1, 2, 6 and 7 spots in the draft - while they had the Patriots (12-4), Saints (11-5), Panthers (12-4), Colts (11-5), Eagles (10-6) and Chargers missing the postseason.

While getting 50% of the playoff teams correct is the definition of mediocre prognostication, give them credit for getting the two conference champions right - though that was offset by their prediction of Denver dropping 34 points on Seattle to win the Super Bowl.

The Mag ranks all 32 NFL teams - ESPN The Magazine

Click to expand...

They also had the Texans in the AFCCG, and that could not have more emphatically not-happened.

blackglass3 said:

I had a dream we got Pats/Giants 3 for this Super Bowl a few weeks ago. I'm going with that.

Click to expand...

The only way the Giants will be going to the Super Bowl is if they buy tickets. They may be out of playoff contention by the end of October. They are going to suck this year.

The preseason is over. We should now have a better idea of what we are going to look like. ( Subject to a few roster changes).

What do you see our record being this year?

If Brady stays healthy I see us going 13-3

With one loss to Denver in the regular season, but we get revenge in the playoffs.

I also think we will let two more slip by with possibly losses to either the Packers, Bears or Chiefs.

What are your thoughts?

There are only 16 games in the regular season.

I could see us go 12-4. Some of the losses you mentioned and probably an inner division loss. Yes the rest of the division is crappy. But inner division games are always harder to predict.

I'll go 14-2 with a superbowl win.

Strong team with just enough question marks to make me go 12-4 rather than higher.

Slight aside: Psyched to see the weather forecast for the coming week is warmer and more humid than it has been. Makes for a better runup to Miami.

I guess this is the 2014 edition of the Predictions Thread?

I'm compelled to go with 14-2. This really isn't a terrible schedule and, with the exception of Indianapolis and Green Bay, the toughest teams on the docket are at home. I've got Miami at home as the head-scratcher loss that happens every year.

Around the league, I'm not being too original with the division winners, but I've got a couple Wild Card surprises with Miami and Washington. Again going full homer with the Super Bowl prediction...is what it is.

W @ Miami
W @ Minnesota
W Oakland
W @ Kansas City
W Cincinnati
W @ Buffalo
W NY Jest
W Chicago
W Denver
W @ Indianapolis
W Detroit
L @ Green Bay
W @ San Diego
L Miami
W @ NY Jest
W Buffalo

AFC Division Winners
AFCE - New England
AFCN - Cincinnati
AFCS - Indianapolis
AFCW - Denver

AFC Wild Card - San Diego, Miami

NFC Division Winners
NFCE - Philadelphia
NFCN - Green Bay
NFCS - New Orleans
NFCW - Seattle

NFC Wild Card - Washington, Chicago

AFC Champion - New England
NFC Champion - Philadelphia

Super Bowl Champion - New England Patriots

I think 12-4 is likely.

1 loss in the division
1 loss where the team just plays poorly- there's at least one a year.
1 between GB and Denver
1 dogfight, losing by 3 or less in the last 60 seconds.

16-0 with BB taking no prisoners, showing no mercy
15-1 if Brady gets hurt. Jimmy G will have trouble gripping the ball on the frozen tundra of Lambeau (small hands)
12-4 if Gronk shatters again
10-6 if Revis Island gets swamped
8-8 if Gronk happened to be partying on Revis Islanded when it gets swamped
2-14 if McDaniels takes over for BB ...and Josh cranks up Tebow Mania for an encore