8/25: Reiss Predicting Ridley Gets Cut

Triumph said:

Comedy gold.

Badmouthing BB.

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They would hate their coach if that happens.

shmessy said:

Whoa....Personally, I don't see it from here (but "from here" is 400 miles away and he is there every day):

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...66441/new-england-patriots-projected-roster-6

RUNNING BACKS (4)

• Shane Vereen
• James White
• Brandon Bolden
• Jonas Gray

The Patriots are always good for a surprise, and we've had our antenna up at this positionsince early July. If there's a surprise, we'll play a hunch at this spot with Stevan Ridley, whose low snap total Friday (11 snaps) in a "dress rehearsal" game caught the eye. Meanwhile, Roy Finch lands on the practice squad.

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Ridley is a top 10 NFL RB as runner; at the very least, they would trade him and get something for him.

PatsWickedPissah said:

The only way BB cuts Rids is if he notices an unserious approach to ball control in practice and the guy is not following coaching advice. Were that to be so, and I have zero evidence it is true, then BB should cut the guy regardless of talent. You CANNOT give the ball away in close contests.

I think Reiss is off the mark here.

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But what would that evidence look like? If Ridley were not taking coaching in practice and had issues with ball security in practice, and then he put the ball on the ground in a game, that might explain why some feel BB is over-reacting to what many perceive as a merely mediocre fumbling rate. I think there is evidence that BB regards his ball security issues as more important than many on this site. If BB sees him as gone next year, and sees greater value in Gray, I could see entertaining trade offers to get some value for him while he can. While I would be surprised if he were released outright, BB surprises with some regularity. Predicting the annual surprises is a challenging game, which is what Reiss is attempting here. By definition, a surprise is a move that most of us are not anticipating.

Here’€™s a breakdown of the New England offense through the first three preseason games of 2014:
RB Jonas Gray: 30 (30 rushes)
RB James White: 20 (18 rushes, 2 catches)
RB Stevan Ridley: 19 (19 rushes)
RB Shane Vereen: 14 (7 rush, 7 catches)

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It Is What It Is >> In Focus: Charting offensive opportunities for Patriots skill position players in preseason

While we're on the topic of Mike Reiss, I have to call BS on him.

In his 8/24 post on the release of Kelly, Smith and Anderson, he says that "None of the moves come as a major surprise." In a later post, he seems to take credit for "foreshadowing" Kelly's release: "The potential release of Kelly was foreshadowed in mid-July, so the move doesn't come as a major surprise." This is despite the fact that in his roster projection from last week (http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england...66208/new-england-patriots-projected-roster-5), he has both Kelly and Anderson on the final 53.

Overall I disagree with the following:

- Ridley being cut
- Boyce making the team
- Wendell making the team
- Beauharnais being cut
- Wilson being cut

I mean, unless BB is drawing a line in the sand. He let it leak and it went public using someone like Reiss who has some credibility. I agree with others that state maybe Ridley's fumbles are over-exaggerated. You are kind of sending a pretty strong message to the rest of your backs. One thing I do know is that none of us knows. I think it would be a little bit of a shocker though however you slice and dice it..

Reiss bases his opinion on Ridley getting "only" 11 plays, but in those he carried the ball 8 times for 28 yards. Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots - Box Score - August 22, 2014 - ESPN

He got his work in and yielded to others who have more to prove or plays they needed to run in live competition (Vereen, for example.) If the first teamers were in there the entire game, he would have gotten 16 or 17 carries - about average for him. They know what they've got in Ridley. There's no reason to make him a bell cow in a pre-season game when there are so many guys you want to see take snaps.

My RB group: Ridley, Vereen, Develin, White and either Finch or Bolden. Finch makes it if he's the designated KR specialist. Releasing Bolden and Gray is difficult because both have the talent to play in the NFL. Gray might clear waivers to join the PS. Bolden will get picked up.

Brady6 said:

Ridley is a top 10 NFL RB as runner; at the very least, they would trade him and get something for him.

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Why would any team trade Ridely when they could have him for free in a couple of days when all teams must be at 53 players?

Triumph said:

Why would any team trade Ridely when they could have him for free in a couple of days when all teams must be at 53 players?

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It is guaranteed if you trade for him.

Triumph said:

Comedy gold.

Badmouthing BB.

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Still waiting for you to provide us with that list of teams who have had as much success as Belichick has while replacing over 90 percent of their roster Triumph? Why is it taking so long? A fantasy genius like you should be able to write that up for us in no time.

Triumph said:

Why would any team trade Ridely when they could have him for free in a couple of days when all teams must be at 53 players?

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A guarantee that he goes to you without giving him the choice of signing elsewhere, on top of the fact that his salary is already very affordable. I doubt anyone thinks they'd get a top half of the draft pick for him, but we got a 4th for Maroney, I'm guessing we could get a 5th for Ridley at least.

Yeah sure, Gray looked good for about a quarter of exhibition football and White hasn't even done that.

Shouldn't Reiss know a day after Tommie Kelly got cut that playing time in a preseason game is not a good way to judge roster spots?

It be my fault it's my fantasy football draft i took him in the 8th round of my fantasy draft and I even stated only Patriot I drafted and would have a big season in a contract year.
It would be all my fault

Triumph said:

Why would any team trade Ridely when they could have him for free in a couple of days when all teams must be at 53 players?

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Because if ten teams would want Ridley only one of them will be successful in the strategy of waiting for him to be a free agent and sign him.

I don't see Ridley getting cut, but he has trade value as a RB who had 1,200 yards just two seasons ago.

Triumph said:

Comedy gold.

Badmouthing BB.

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I can understand why you jet fans would love this move triumph but Patriot fans would hate it.

makoute said:

It is guaranteed if you trade for him.

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Doesn't Ridley have to agree to go to said team?

Its in Ridleys best interest to hit the open market and time is on his side with final cutdown looming.

Rob0729 said:

Because if ten teams would want Ridley only one of them will be successful in the strategy of waiting for him to be a free agent and sign him.

I don't see Ridley getting cut, but he has trade value as a RB who had 1,200 yards just two seasons ago.

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One team would be successful and a team that Ridley wants to play for.

Also, Ridley gets paid more hitting the market.

TBR said:

Reiss just lost any credibility he had

Ridley's "fumbling issues" are incredibly over-exaggerated

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I really don't think they are exaggerated. Initially I was a bit surprised by this because Reiss is the only one saying this, but after looking at it again I'm not surprised at all - for a couple of reasons:

- As Patriots fans, we should have learned by now to not be surprised by anything. There are always a few surprises around cut down time, some more than others (Mesko, Hoyer, Branch, Koppen, all the way back to Lawyer Milloy).

- Ridley's fumbling issues are not over-exaggerated in my opinion. In 2012, Ridley ranked 5th among RB's in fumbles lost (4) and was 10th in 2013 among RB's (3 fumbles lost). It's been made remarkably clear that the Patriots coaching staff simply can't rely on a player who can't secure the ball. Ridley is the most likely the best inside runner on the team. But that does not matter if he can't be relied upon to secure the ball.

- I don't think Ridley would have been nearly as involved in the offense last year had Vereen not gone down in Week 1. He had been benched after fumbling in Week 1 but was only put in the game because Blount had yet to establish himself and there was nobody else. He then proceeded to raise his stock until fumbling in 3 consecutive games against CAR, PITT, and DEN. He was then surpassed by Blount for the remainder of the year (mostly).

- Ridley is in the final year of his deal and the Patriots may have made the determination that they have no interest in retaining him for 2015 and beyond. Players like Jonas Gray (RFA in 2016) and Finch (RFA in 2017) are all under team control for multiple years and come at approx. half the cost of Ridley this year (Ridley on cap for $940K, Gray and Finch $420K). I'm not a big Bolden fan, but he's also cheaper than Ridley this year (570K).

- The emergence of James White. He's clearly made a favorable impression on the team thus far.

Ivan said:

I can understand why you jet fans would love this move triumph but Patriot fans would hate it.

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You must have been on suicide watch when Milloy was cut.