Any Statisticians out there? 538 weighs in on Spygate.

primetime said:

Moreover, using Vegas spreads as a way to analyze anything at all is incredibly stupid.

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Your overall post is well-stated and on point. Never mind the statistics - what I've quoted above is the knockout punch. Any conclusions based on this premise are worthless.

TonyTucker said:

I'm curious where the magical signals came from against the Panthers. They last played in 2001 when the Panthers were 1-15 with a different HC and QB. So, if the theory is, the Patriots played an opponent, stole their signals, and then used those in the next game, how does that apply to CAR?

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There is such a thing as the paranoid mindset.

Case in point: one study found that people who believe Osama bin Laden is still alive today are also more likely to believe that he was already dead before the mission to take him out. (Think about that for a moment.)

With others addressing the stats, I'll stick to other areas....


Stealing signs ≠ illegal
Stealing signs in a specific manner, outlined in a memo = Considered illegal by Goodell


Big difference.

Also, this article really sums things up:

Patriots never taped walkthrough, Goodell finds - The Boston Globe

A few highlights include

As for the eight tapes from 2000 to 2002 that Walsh provided to the NFL, the footage shown was mundane - a shot of coaches on the sidelines, the play from an end-zone angle, and a shot of the scoreboard to indicate the down and distance of the next play.

Goddell said Walsh told him he never handed the tapes over during a game, thus eliminating the possibility there was an in-game benefit.

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"We were able to verify that there was no Rams walkthrough tape," Goodell said. "No one asked him to tape the walkthrough. He's not aware of anybody else who may have taped the walkthrough. He had not seen such a tape. He does not know of anybody who says there is a tape."

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Goodell also noted that Walsh confirmed he was aware of no other violations of league policy by the Patriots - "no bugging of locker rooms, there was no manipulation of communication systems, there was no crowd noise violation that he was aware of, no miking of players to pick up opposing signals or audibles."

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primetime said:

************ what's with patsfans and being super internet sensitive

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You didn't get the humor.

Take a Prozac.

Since Spygate the Pats record has been 93-30... a 76% winning record.

Haters have to hate, and many teams are jealous of our success... because they suck long term.

Deus Irae said:

With others addressing the stats, I'll stick to other areas....


Stealing signs ≠ illegal
Stealing signs in a specific manner, outlined in a memo = Considered illegal by Goodell

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I think you meant to say stealing signs is legal since it is?

The real kicker is none of this logic or analysis of the cause or effect matters to anyone. Many opposing fans and even players think its about tapped practices and really don't care what the impact was. Its all about them trying to stick it to pats fans.

Shockt327 said:

In reality, the tape is simply used so the coaches can know -- after the game -- what coverage the opposing D was attempting to execute; that way, they can do a faster job of breaking things down. I have no problem with this act being illegal, or the Pats getting punished for it.

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This highlights one of the biggest problems with "Spygate". Most fans, even those of the Patriots themselves, seem to completely misunderstand what rule the Patriots broke that day.

It is legal and continues to be legal to tape defensive formations for study after the game. Maybe you didn't mean that this was illegal but then you go on to say, "I have no problem with this act being illegal, or the Pats getting punished for it". They did NOT get punished for this.

They were punished for filming from an illegal LOCATION, not for filming the defensive formations!

If us Patriot fans can't get it right, how can we expect our opposing fans to get it right themselves.

The only part I agree with is the last paragraph of the article.

Like I said before....
Every cheater in sports tend to have a whistleblower. Lance Armstrong's masseuse. The US track coach for BALCO. Steve Courson for the Steelers PED use in the 70's. The documentary camera man that exposed Bountygate. The UNC employee. And so on.

So where is the whistleblower for the Patriots? Why has not one current or former Patriots employee - and many have left the organization on less than good terms - has written a tell all book or gone to the media claiming they either participated in cheating, were asked to cheat or witnessed cheating happening. A lot of people would love to bring the Patriots and Belichick down. And there's a lot of money to be made by blowing the whistle on the organization. And still 7+ years later....not one. I wonder why.

And if you're wondering about the SB drought after spygate... when was the last time the Patriots had a top shelf defense? 2004, the season of their last title. Gee....what a coincidence.

shmessy said:

You didn't get the humor.

Take a Prozac.

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It was late and I was still slightly tipsy from the game, my bad man

primetime said:

It was late and I was still slightly tipsy from the game, my bad man

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No worries PT. It took me 2 hours to get out of the FedEx Field traffic. It was a lousy joke anyhow.

ctpatsfan77 said:

It's not a terrible article, though it punts at the end.

It also ignores the fact that there's a very good reason why the Patriots struggled in some of their post-Spygate losses (viz., injuries to key offensive players).

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Not only that, but Super Bowl 46 was one of the luckiest games I've ever seen for one team.

The safety was flukey at best. The first touchdown by Cruz was one of the luckiest throws with Mayo all over that area. Three fumbles two recovered by Giants and one wiped out by a dumb penalty. All the damn drops and not to mention the ridiculous catch by Manningham. All of this probably wouldnt had matter had Gronk being 100% Sickening loss

Mark12 said:

Not only that, but Super Bowl 46 was one of the luckiest games I've ever seen for one team.

The safety was flukey at best. The first touchdown by Cruz was one of the luckiest throws with Mayo all over that area. Three fumbles two recovered by Giants and one wiped out by a dumb penalty. All the damn drops and not to mention the ridiculously catch by Manningham. All of this probably wouldnt had matter had Gronk being 100% Sickening loss

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I just replayed that game in my head in about 10 seconds reading this paragraph. I need a drink...

Funktopus said:

Too much random stuff happens to derive any cause and effect conclusions. One guy kicks a field goal in a snow storm and another guy catches the football with his helmet. 2 things that have to happen to even have this discussion.

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People forget that when the Pats won their three SB titles, they won those three by three points each. Very narrow margin of error. They could have lost all three. And the ones they lost to the Giants they lost by 3 and 4 - one play in either game and the Pats have 5 Lombardis.

If taping defensive signals from an improper location helped the Pats win three Super Bowls, it couldn't have helped them that much. And if NOT taping defensive signals from an improper location kept NE from winning two Super Bowls, it couldn't have impeded them by much.

ivanvamp said:

People forget that when the Pats won their three SB titles, they won those three by three points each. Very narrow margin of error. They could have lost all three. And the ones they lost to the Giants they lost by 3 and 4 - one play in either game and the Pats have 5 Lombardis.

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Agreed. I've said many times that if I took any 1 play per season I wanted and make a slight adjustment, then I make the Patriots have 0 Super Bowl or I could make them have 6.

If the Patriots went from dominant to pathetic at the moment of Spygate, then the haters would have a point. But any impartial analysis of the situation shows they are arguably better since spygate than they were before. They just haven't had luck getting that 1 lucky bounce they needed to win the Super Bowl. Prior to 2007, we were the ones making the helmet catch. After that, our opponents were.

dales804 said:

I just replayed that game in my head in about 10 seconds reading this paragraph. I need a drink...

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Sorry

Regarding the rampant total mis-application of mathematical stats tools, read Nicholas Nassim Talib's "The Black Swan". It's endemic.

Mark12 said:

Not only that, but Super Bowl 46 was one of the luckiest games I've ever seen for one team.

The safety was flukey at best. The first touchdown by Cruz was one of the luckiest throws with Mayo all over that area. Three fumbles two recovered by Giants and one wiped out by a dumb penalty. All the damn drops and not to mention the ridiculously catch by Manningham. All of this probably wouldnt had matter had Gronk being 100% Sickening loss

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A day later and zero comments on that article. Some JAG on the Eagles makes some comments and people come out of the woodwork. Somebody puts some thought into the topic (right or wrong) and doesn't make any sweeping "cheaters" generalizations? Crickets.

The 24/7 sports media cycle needs ratings, and so they create ratings by creating controversy. Quarterback controversies, drama between QB and coach, anything TMZish they can create to make football more than football.

We were unfortunately the worst victims of this. It even gave our slight violation a name, "Spygate" which sounds sinister, a wordplay on something that brought down a President of the United States, and then kept repeating it, and repeating it, and repeating it.

Now having a camera man in the wrong location, at a game that no doubt had more than a hundred cameramen, has become `the Patriots knew every play their opposition was calling and called precise counter plays every down`

I think it's fair for New England fans to despise these people. What the Patriots did in the post-salary cap era was amazing, and what they continue to do is amazing.

The media took our dynasty away.

It isn't seen like the Cowboys dynasty or the Steeler dynasty in some ways, at least some of the time, because it was tarred and feathered by a ratings and controversy hungry media that reported blatantly lies and inaccuracies and reckless speculations over a slight violation of new league policy.

During football season, when I have the fever, I check out other teams forums, even NFC teams that have nothing to do with us. There's a lot of Patriot defenders and Brady supporters out there, and always seem to be the smarter fans in general, but we would be lying to ourselves if we didn't recognize that our football team is tarnished because of it. The mindless drones of the world, of which there are many, repeat Crygate rumors and lies at nausea to one another and it's the go-to excuse.

Every single season we hear about it from all corners and crevices of the country.

It's bull#$#!%

Just once I would like to see Tedy or McGinest go to war with these jokers on BSPN. Pull a Samuel L. Sackson on ESPN's First Take. "Say Spygate one more $^% #&^@ time!"

It's still not too late for the media to correct its wrongs and put it to rest.

If Rodney Harrison wants to complain about something, why doesn't he start complaining about that instead of always sounding like a spiteful shill all the time?

It isn't seen like the Cowboys dynasty or the Steeler dynasty in some ways, at least some of the time, because it was tarred and feathered by a ratings and controversy hungry media that reported blatantly lies and inaccuracies and reckless speculations over a slight violation of new league policy.

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On the other hand, a lot of that is certainly just spite because of how consistently dangerous the entire league knows we are. They sometimes like to deny it because they think denial drops us down a notch, but it doesn't take super powers to see they're absolutely full of it.