OK, now people are bringing stats into the conversation!
Coin flipping and draft results and zero risk.
To look at this empirically:
Miguel pointed out that the recent results of low-round rookies on IR was the same as the Delta House GPA. "Zero point zero." That was the stat.
To then compare that to the draft is sort of a stretch. I believe there are several drafted players on the Patriots roster currently. Someone can look that up. The success rate of the draft is significantly higher than zero.
Same thing with UDFA's. We can each rattle off a list of UDFA's that have made this team and other teams, and have contributed. The stats absolutely support that approach. Name one late-sixth round pick with a torn up knee that has.
OK, name two.
This may or may not turn out to be the "most deeper" draft in decades, but this player was the #17 RB. While a terrific year for a number of positions, RB wasn't noted in those lists. Late sixth round is about the right place for the #17 RB in any draft. As someone earlier noted; if injured before the draft he would have been undrafted - and thus signed without any notable bonus anyway.
Finally, there may or may not be "zero risk" but there is not "zero cost." If, in fact, "you play those odds a lot of times" you will be unable to afford high-priced high-performing players in a salary-capped system. For example, behind door #1 you have 14 low-round/udfa players on IR, such as 2013, and the output of those players the next year; behind door #2 you have a $4mm difference between resigning Revis (say at a $14mm annual charge) and another CB at a $10mm charge. Pick one. That's an example of the cost of doing this. So the risk is the unproductive loss of the 2014 salaries.
If he was not picked up, Carolina would have been stuck with the salary. While Panther's fans are unhappy, we still don't know if Carolina management is.
Those are the stats, and I'm stickin' with 'em.
