My way too early and I will deny making them when they end up being wrong predictions

pencilneckgeek said:

I liked your post because I think there's some pretty good insight there and I share your enthusiasm, but there's some stuff I don't believe for a minute, notably:



The rest is either good or bold predictions that I will accept in the spirit in which they were delivered. With respect to the above, however:

• I don't see Gronk being ready for week 1. Week 4 is more likely and lately quite possible. I think you set the bar way too high for coming off a late-season ACL injury.
• Dobson will be good, but the ball will be spread around too much. I see him in the 750 yard range, particularly when you consider how many balls go the way of Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Gronk, and Vereen.
• Stork won't be ready to start in week 1. Wendell might get cut, if Connolly can play Center, but I doubt it.
• This defense will get after the QB with 4 enough that they don't need to blitz that much, but it will feel like they do, because it there will be an unpredictable mixture of blitzes and 4-man pressures, and the QB will never know who is coming.

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Gronk tore his ACL in early December. Welker tore his in early January and was back and practicing in training camp. Adrian Peterson tore his ACL in late December and played every game the following year and won the MVP that season. There are plenty examples of players tearing their ACL as late or later in the season than Gronk did and not miss a game the following season.

I am not setting the bar way too high at all. The bar is that he is ready for week 1. Not saying he will be, but him being ready for week one may actually be a conservative expectation. Typical recovery time is 6 months these days. It will be nine months since his surgery at the start of the season. If Gronk isn't ready week one, it is a concern because either he is being way too cautious coming back or he had a significant set back.

SB39 said:

Those predictions are so incredibly vague they could mean anything........

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Actually, to the contrary, I think they were quite specific. I give Rob props for going out on a limb and putting it out there, even if he throws out a disclaimer in the thread title . Gives us something to talk about and read in the doldrums of the offseason. I say thanks Rob0729.

Rob0729 said:

Typical recovery time is 6 months these days.

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I think you're stretching things a bit. Welker and Peterson pretty much set the bar with recoveries around 7.5 to 8 months. Either way, "6 months" isn't exactly the usual norm--it's quite a feat.

Rob0729 said:

It will be nine months since his surgery at the start of the season.

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You're a full month off. Gronkowski's surgery was on January 7th, thus making it 8 months to the start of the regular season.

We'll have to see how he's looking in the next 4-6 weeks. I can see the arguments from both sides. Ultimately, things seem to be heading in a positive direction with his recovery thus far, so I hope that you are 100% correct. We should have him in the first few/several weeks of the season one way or the other.

I predict that the injury bug will go easy on the Pats this year.
To the other 31 teams,......KARMA, it's time for pay back.
OH, and Vollmer and Solder will be our book ends for 19 games.

PS. Lord, you are listening, okay? Ty in advance SIR.

OhExaulted1 said:

Actually, to the contrary, I think they were quite specific. I give Rob props for going out on a limb and putting it out there, even if he throws out a disclaimer in the thread title . Gives us something to talk about and read in the doldrums of the offseason. I say thanks Rob0729.

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Most importantly he gave us all credible deniability, as there is a "deny it" clause implicit in the Thread title, and that is sacrosanct.

That said I stand by all my predictions 100%.

supafly said:

I think you're stretching things a bit. Welker and Peterson pretty much set the bar with recoveries around 7.5 to 8 months. Either way, "6 months" isn't exactly the usual norm--it's quite a feat.

You're a full month off. Gronkowski's surgery was on January 7th, thus making it 8 months to the start of the regular season.

We'll have to see how he's looking in the next 4-6 weeks. I can see the arguments from both sides. Ultimately, things seem to be heading in a positive direction with his recovery thus far, so I hope that you are 100% correct. We should have him in the first few/several weeks of the season one way or the other.

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Maybe my math is off on Gronk's recovery time, but Welker tore his ACL on January 3rd and had his replacement surgery on February 2nd. Peterson tore his on December 19th and had his surgery December 30th. So Welker had his surgery a month later in the year than Gronk did and Peterson has his surgery a week earlier in the year than Gronk.

Whether the timeline is 6 months or 8 months, Gronk should be back for week one barring any setback or him being way overly cautious (I doubt he will be this time with James Andrews doing the surgery and the Gronk team trusts him).

It seems pretty clear that the Pats fully expect Gronk to be back for week 1 this year since they have not made any real move to get a short term replacement. And people can point to last year as them doing the same, but they expected Hernandez to be the guy who picked up the slack and if not him, then Jake Ballard. Unfortunately, both were not the answer for very different reasons.

Rob0729 said:

Maybe my math is off on Gronk's recovery time, but Welker tore his ACL on January 3rd and had his replacement surgery on February 2nd. Peterson tore his on December 19th and had his surgery December 30th. So Welker had his surgery a month later in the year than Gronk did and Peterson has his surgery a week earlier in the year than Gronk.

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I'm just pointing to the fact that Gronk had his surgery on 1/7, so 9/7 would make it 8 months.

You are certainly correct in stating that a "new" norm has been set when all goes well, so we'll have to hope for the best in Gronkowski's case. Right now, I think you're right and that things are headed in the right direction.

Rob0729 said:

Whether the timeline is 6 months or 8 months, Gronk should be back for week one barring any setback or him being way overly cautious (I doubt he will be this time with James Andrews doing the surgery and the Gronk team trusts him).

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Here's where we disagree a bit. The difference between 6 months and 8 months is pretty big, in the case of an ACL tear/surgery. It's only been 6 months right now. I doubt that Gronkowski would be able to start if there were a game today, but that's just my opinion.

Both parties have a large bonus on the line at the end of next season when the "big" money kicks in for Gronk's deal, so both Gronk and NE have some serious financial reasons to give it an extra couple/few weeks, should it come down to it. The psychological aspects alone of Gronk missing another 6-8+ weeks again may be huge as it pertains to his NFL career, and he would definitely carry the label of "injury prone" for sure, if he doesn't already now.

I agree with you that if he's healthy---he's healthy, but I also can see plenty of reasoning to use just as much caution as last year, give or take a week or two.

Rob0729 said:

It seems pretty clear that the Pats fully expect Gronk to be back for week 1 this year since they have not made any real move to get a short term replacement.

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I think that it's rare for Belichick to put all his eggs in one basket no matter what, so we could still see a TE2 signed. I would be surprised if this was their reasoning for not signing another TE myself, although I certainly understand your point, and you may ultimately be correct. There's no depth whatsoever behind Gronk, at least for anyone who can catch an actual football, anyway. It'd be nice to see someone added in Keller/Finley, although both seem to have injury concerns themselves.

Mike Reiss appears to agree with two of my predictions (Chandler Jones getting 15 plus sacks and the Pats winning the Super Bowl).

Bold predictions for Patriots camp - espnBoston

supafly said:

I'm just pointing to the fact that Gronk had his surgery on 1/7, so 9/7 would make it 8 months.

You are certainly correct in stating that a "new" norm has been set when all goes well, so we'll have to hope for the best in Gronkowski's case. Right now, I think you're right and that things are headed in the right direction.



Here's where we disagree a bit. The difference between 6 months and 8 months is pretty big, in the case of an ACL tear/surgery. It's only been 6 months right now. I doubt that Gronkowski would be able to start if there were a game today, but that's just my opinion.

Both parties have a large bonus on the line at the end of next season when the "big" money kicks in for Gronk's deal, so both Gronk and NE have some serious financial reasons to give it an extra couple/few weeks, should it come down to it. The psychological aspects alone of Gronk missing another 6-8+ weeks again may be huge as it pertains to his NFL career, and he would definitely carry the label of "injury prone" for sure, if he doesn't already now.

I agree with you that if he's healthy---he's healthy, but I also can see plenty of reasoning to use just as much caution as last year, give or take a week or two.



I think that it's rare for Belichick to put all his eggs in one basket no matter what, so we could still see a TE2 signed. I would be surprised if this was their reasoning for not signing another TE myself, although I certainly understand your point, and you may ultimately be correct. There's no depth whatsoever behind Gronk, at least for anyone who can catch an actual football, anyway. It'd be nice to see someone added in Keller/Finley, although both seem to have injury concerns themselves.

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I wasn't saying that there is no difference between 6 months or 8 months. I am saying if the timeline is 6 months or 8 months, Gronk is still in the timeline to be ready for week one.

Do think Gronk needs to prove he can play a full season again to make the Pats want to take the roster bonus hit. So there is incentive for him to come back and probably be practicing by the third week of training camp. If the rumors were true and he was overly cautious last year and the Pats were not happy, it doesn't help his case if he is overly cautious this year too.

I never said that Belichick put his eggs in one basket. I am saying if Belichick really thought there was a strong possibility of Gronk missing games at the start of the season or as some suggest start the year on the PUP, he would have signed a guy like Scott Chandler who signed a very manageable two year $4.75 million contract with the Bills..

I fully expect the Pats to sign Keller in the next few weeks, but he may be less of a guarantee of being ready for week one than Gronk. Same with Jermichael Finley.

Rob0729 said:

I wasn't saying that there is no difference between 6 months or 8 months. I am saying if the timeline is 6 months or 8 months, Gronk is still in the timeline to be ready for week one.

Do think Gronk needs to prove he can play a full season again to make the Pats want to take the roster bonus hit. So there is incentive for him to come back and probably be practicing by the third week of training camp. If the rumors were true and he was overly cautious last year and the Pats were not happy, it doesn't help his case if he is overly cautious this year too.

I never said that Belichick put his eggs in one basket. I am saying if Belichick really thought there was a strong possibility of Gronk missing games at the start of the season or as some suggest start the year on the PUP, he would have signed a guy like Scott Chandler who signed a very manageable two year $4.75 million contract with the Bills..

I fully expect the Pats to sign Keller in the next few weeks, but he may be less of a guarantee of being ready for week one than Gronk. Same with Jermichael Finley.

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I think you and Sup are just splitting hairs at this point. The way it looks today, its not a matter whether Gronk is ready next week, but if he's ready for the first game. He showed last season that he can come off the PUP and be and instant force. At this point in his career there isn't a huge need for him to be a full participant in TC. He can get enough work with Brady in the passing game in non-contact work to be on the same page.

I won't be surprised to see him on the PUP list to start TC. However I won't be shocked if they choose to allow him to practice WITH the team, but limit him in the amount that he can do, either

Rob0729 said:

I fully expect the Pats to sign Keller in the next few weeks, but he may be less of a guarantee of being ready for week one than Gronk. Same with Jermichael Finley.

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I hope that you're right, Rob. It would be nice to have a more capable TE2 in terms of adding some pass catching ability to the team as well.

patfanken said:

I think you and Sup are just splitting hairs at this point. The way it looks today, its not a matter whether Gronk is ready next week, but if he's ready for the first game. He showed last season that he can come off the PUP and be and instant force. At this point in his career there isn't a huge need for him to be a full participant in TC. He can get enough work with Brady in the passing game in non-contact work to be on the same page.

I won't be surprised to see him on the PUP list to start TC. However I won't be shocked if they choose to allow him to practice WITH the team, but limit him in the amount that he can do, either

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Considering Gronk said yesterday that he expects to play the entire season, I would be surprised if he isn't back by the third preseason game. I would be absolutely shocked if he ended up on the PUP. If he didn't last year, no way will he be this year unless he gets another injury or has a huge setback.

Rob0729 said:

Considering Gronk said yesterday that he expects to play the entire season, I would be surprised if he isn't back by the third preseason game. I would be absolutely shocked if he ended up on the PUP. If he didn't last year, no way will he be this year unless he gets another injury or has a huge setback.

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Now that we've heard directly from the player in question last night, I think we're all feeling more positive.

Like I said even when I was still a bit cautious, either way, it seemed like we'd have him early on. The only difference may have been a couple of extra weeks or something. I just wasn't 100% convinced that he'd definitely have been able to go in 6 weeks, but this latest report changes my thinking.This is great news indeed!

Well, here's our long awaited veteran TE acquisition:

Nate Byham--apparently worked out with NE back in May.

Report: Patriots reach deal with TE Nate Byham | ProFootballTalk

Ok, it didn't take long, but I already have been proven wrong on several of my predictions (not a good start). Here is what I got wrong:

• Stork will win the starting job. Wendell gets cut.
• Both Boyce and Thompkins make the final 53 roster. Boyce becomes the kick returner. Boyce has a better season than Thompkins. Thompkins is regularly inactive.
• Easley will be practicing the first week of camp and gets 5 sacks his rookie season (I got the practice thing wrong right away)
• The DTs that make the roster are Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, and Siliga. Kelly will see the most time on the field than anyone. He will play most downs. Wilfork will play only primarily first and second down. Easley and Jones will be situational pass rushers. Siliga will be a run down specialist.
• Will Smith ends up losing rotational snaps to players from other positions like Hightower and Easley. He starts the season as the second guy off the best after Michael Buchannon who has a nice second year jump in production. Smith could get cut during the season or not even make it out of camp. I like the signing, but something tells me he will disappoint. (At least I got the disappointment part right)

At least I got the Brian Hoyer won the starting job over Johnny Manziel.

As has been pointed out, you made a lot of predictions and they were specific... 4 pages of good off-season fodder!

If you wanted people to think you were right about everything, you should have used metaphors and written it in quatrains

That sort of thing.

PatsFanInVa said:

As has been pointed out, you made a lot of predictions and they were specific... 4 pages of good off-season fodder!

If you wanted people to think you were right about everything, you should have used metaphors and written it in quatrains

By threes and fours, they back the line
Across from the Island, the ground is browner
Mannequins cannot guard alone, but must be soldered
The one who is 12 unites the tribes
​

That sort of thing.

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Ok, here are my revised predictions:

• Brady will throw a lot of balls.
• I expect Dobson to catch a lot of those balls.
• Revis will make an impact on the defense.
• We will be saying at the end of the year "Boy, Chandler Jones had a lot of sacks."
• The Pats have an excellent shot of winning the Super Bowl. Not saying they will, but they have a great shot.
• I expect Gronk to play a particular number of games this year during the regular that is some between and including one and sixteen.

Are these better?

Much more robust this way... but why write it, I mean other than for a laugh, right?

Your OP is doing fine, "busts" and all. Much ballsier.

PatsFanInVa said:

Much more robust this way... but why write it, I mean other than for a laugh, right?

Your OP is doing fine, "busts" and all. Much ballsier.

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Well, that post was between 0-100% serious. I am kinda enjoying this non-commitment-commitment to what I believe.... or am I?

I will stick with my original post btw, although the addition of Wright is going to probably make my offensive numbers way off in terms of players' receiving yards.

Bump it now and then, if nobody else does... it will be good to see what "sticks" and what does not. I think this is a great exercise, and I wish -- especially -- that the draftnik crowd looked back at their results. You seem to already be mature enough to understand that hey, you'll be right some, you'll be wrong some... But there are those for whom selective memory seems the dominant form.