My way too early and I will deny making them when they end up being wrong predictions

Ok, with two weeks before camp, I figured I would get my season predictions out of the way. Of course I will probably change them by the beginning of the season. But what the hell:

Patriots

In General

• The Pats will finish the season 13-3. I just think this season's schedule will be easier than last year.
• My early target for losses are @ Green Bay, @ Indy, and Cincy. Not that I think any are neccesarily better than the Pats. It is always hard to beat Green Bay in Green Bay especially in late November. Cincy is on a short week and the second night game in a row. Plus, their defense is a good match up for any offense. I think Indy treats the game like a playoff game for revenge for getting embarrassed in the playoffs last year.

Offense

• Gronk will play the entire year and have over 1,200 yards and 13 TDs
• Aaron Dobson will have over 1,000 yards
• Stork will win the starting job. Wendell gets cut.
• Brady will pass for over 5,000 yards and have 37 TDs
• We will see Vereen become close to what Sproles was in NO. He will have about 1,000 all purpose yards. I will say about 400 rushing and 600 receiving.
• White will take over the role that Woodhead left a year ago. He will have a solid rookie season as a situational RB. I say about 500 all purpose yards.
• LaFell will have about 600 yards and 6 TDs.
• Both Boyce and Thompkins make the final 53 roster. Boyce becomes the kick returner. Boyce has a better season than Thompkins. Thompkins is regularly inactive.
• Ridley has a bounce back year with about 1,100 yards and 9 TDs and only fumbling once.
• Amendola has a better year than Edelman. Amendola has about 900 yards and 6 TDs. Edelman has 800 yards and 5 TDs.

Defense

• NFL The defense will have the most blitzes of any season in the Belichick era
• The defense will look more like the Dynasty years in that you will see a lot more presnap movement and delayed blitzes and stunts than in recent year.
• Chandler Jones has 15 sacks or more sacks
• Easley will be practicing the first week of camp and gets 5 sacks his rookie season
• I think the starting CB opposite Revis (at least after week 4) will be a match up based type of call. I think Browner will start against big receivers. Dennard or Ryan will get the call against smaller ones.
• Hightower will play situational DE in subpackages and be primarily a pass rusher. He will have a bounce back year now that he will be playing in a position that fits his strength. I expect him to have 7 sacks.
• The DTs that make the roster are Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, and Siliga. Kelly will see the most time on the field than anyone. He will play most downs. Wilfork will play only primarily first and second down. Easley and Jones will be situational pass rushers. Siliga will be a run down specialist.
• Wilfork will have a subpar year at least for his standards. I will say he will be slightly above average coming down from his Pro Bowl caliber.
• Collins has a break out second year. I give him 7 sacks, 4 INTS, and 2 FF. He will be the guy who covers TEs unless Browner is on a certain play.
• Harmon has a solid second year. I think he more than adequately fills in for the starting position opposite McCourty.
• Speaking of McCourty, he has an All Pro season with the improved secondary and more aggressive front seven.
• The defense will be top five in points allowed. It will be in the top 10 in most key categories most importantly third downs.
• Revis will win DPOY. Not necessarily that he is the best defensive player in the league (although he might be), but the perception of the Patriots defense will be so radically shifted that people will give all the credit to him.
• Pat Chung is somewhat productive in a limited role.
• Will Smith ends up losing rotational snaps to players from other positions like Hightower and Easley. He starts the season as the second guy off the best after Michael Buchannon who has a nice second year jump in production. Smith could get cut during the season or not even make it out of camp. I like the signing, but something tells me he will disappoint.

NFL In General

Division Winners

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Cincy
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Broncos
Wild Cards: San Diego, Ravens

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Falcons
NFC West:Seahawks

Wild Cards: 49ers, Cardinals

Wild Card Round
Broncos over Ravens
San Diego over Cincy

Eagles over Cardinals
Falcons over 49ers

Division Round
Pats over San Diego
Broncos over Colts

Seahawks over Falcons
Packers over Eagles

Conference Championships
Pats over Broncos
Seahawks over Packers

Super Bowl
Patriots over Seahawks (that is my heart, my head says the other way)

Superlatives
MVP - Aaron Rodgers
OPOY - Brady
DPOY - Revis
OROY - Mike Evans
DROY - Clowney

General Thoughts

• Seattle will be the first Super Bowl winner since the Patriots (I think) to win a playoff game the following year.
• The Broncos offense take a significant step back this year (which will still make them very good). I think both Manning and Welker show their age this year. Manning has a solid season, but like Brady's last year will be a very bad year by his standards. For all the hype about Sanders becoming a 1,000 yard receiver with Manning, I think he falls far short of it by a decent amount (200-300 yards). Because of this and a tough schedule, I expect them to not have a bye this year.
• The AFC closes the gap a bit from with the NFC, but will still be a handful of quality teams and most of the conference will be mediocre to bad.
• The Colts will be a great regular season team (12-4), but crumble again in the playoffs when they face a good team in the division round. They will benefit from a weak division.
• Teams taking a step back (be worse than last year by a bit) will be Denver, 49ers, Carolina, KC, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jets
• Teams taking a step up will be Arizona, Green Bay, Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington
• Coaches getting fired: Joe Philbin, Doug Marrone (the Bills will be sold and they will look for a big name head coach), Dennis Allen, and Rex Ryan (yes, I am predicting a clean sweep of coaches in the AFC East not named Belichick this season)
• Geno Smith will win the fixed QB competition in the preseason even though Vick outplays him. Michael Vick will be starting for the Jets by week 5. Geno Smith will be starting again by week 10 because Vick is injured.
• As I said, the Bills will be sold most likely to Jon Bon Jovi's group. My prediction for next offseason is that they trade San Francisco for Jim Harbaugh.
• Colin Kaepernick has a big step back in production due to age wall drops in production from Frank Gore and Anquan Bolden.
• Eli Manning continues to struggle and either gets cut or traded after the season.
• Brian Hoyer wins the starting job in Cleveland.

And yes, I know my predictions are mostly looking at the optimistic stuff, but isn't that what the offseason is for? Being way too optimistic.

You really like Hightower...or does he have a twin?

betterthanthealternative said:

You really like Hightower...or does he have a twin?

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I think Hightower was misused for much of the year last year due to injuries. I think the Pats will use him correctly this year. I think he can be an excellent pass rusher. The problem is they didn't use him that way last year because Mayo went down, Spikes was hurt for much of the year, and Collins wasn't ready until late in the season.

assuming health and dobson making the leap, we win the SB.........i know the qualifiers make it a cop-out prediction......but i cant help it......this is the most excited i have been for a season since 07

Rob0729 said:

I think Hightower was misused for much of the year last year due to injuries. I think the Pats will use him correctly this year. I think he can be an excellent pass rusher. The problem is they didn't use him that way last year because Mayo went down, Spikes was hurt for much of the year, and Collins wasn't ready until late in the season.

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I think he asks, sarcastically, because you mention Hightower twice in your defensive predictions and once you say he'll have 7 sacks then next that he'll have 8.

And I agree he has the ability to do it. Just a matter of getting the chance.

dales804 said:

I think he asks, sarcastically, because you mention Hightower twice in your defensive predictions and once you say he'll have 7 sacks then next that he'll have 8.

And I agree he has the ability to do it. Just a matter of getting the chance.

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LOL! Oops. I will have to fix that.

EDIT: I removed one of the line items.

13-3 seems about right with a healthy gronk, Dobson making the leap and the oline keeping Tom upright.

I think the biggest 'cross your fingers' optimist wish there is for Dobson to make the leap into a 1,000 yard-type receiver. If he does that, then I do think that the rest of your offensive predictions fall into place. For example, I don't see Brady hitting 5,000 yards. But if Gronk is healthy and Dobson is a 1,000 yard guy, then I can see it. I agree with the most of the rest. If Gronk and Vereen stay healthy and Dobson makes the leap, we'll have the best offense in the NFL, and in particular we'll have the versatile, multi-faceted type of offense that's extraordinarily consistent and hard to stop. I'm not as confident in any of those three things happening as you seem to be, but like you said: the offseason is for optimism. As for Ridley, I don't even know what to predict at this point. I feel just about certain that he'll make the team, but beyond that nothing would really shock me. He could go and get 1200 yards and double-digit touchdowns again, or he could be a backup who doesn't see the field all that much.

On defense, I agree with just almost everything that you posted. The exceptions being that I'm not totally sold on Harmon and I don't see Chung doing much, even in a limited role. I think your observations re: Smith, Hightower, and Easley are all on point, though. I do also think that 15 sacks are in play for Chandler Jones, but one of the other pass rushers desperately needs to step up to help make that happen. Half of Ninkovich's sacks were caused by Chandler chasing the QB out of the pocket last year: as impressive as his 11 sacks were, he would've had a handful more if there was another upper tier pass rusher on the field. Between Buchanan, Smith, Hightower, Collins, and an improved secondary, I see Jones getting sacks more often than last year, but hopefully playing significantly fewer snaps as well. Which, IMO, would put him right around 15 sacks, plus not so worn down once the playoffs roll around.

Rob0729 said:

I think Hightower was misused for much of the year last year due to injuries. I think the Pats will use him correctly this year. I think he can be an excellent pass rusher. The problem is they didn't use him that way last year because Mayo went down, Spikes was hurt for much of the year, and Collins wasn't ready until late in the season.

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What makes you believe Hightower can be an excellent pass rusher?

Marqui said:

What makes you believe Hightower can be an excellent pass rusher?

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He was in college. Including from the DE position. Maybe not excellent, but he was a very good pass rusher in college and could be the same in the pros.

Those predictions are so incredibly vague they could mean anything........

Hightower doesn't have the burst/agility to be an impact passrusher. More excuses than production at this point. BUT he can be an impact MLB. He needs to play closer to prototype weight. In this passing league where teams are passing on first/second down there are no standout LBs weighing 270+. They are barely 240. At 250-255 he could be a terror. I see Buchanan stepping up as a passrusher as well as Easley. With Browner on the TE Collins blitzes more often. Concerned over Wilfoirks and Kellys ability to hold the line. Will Smith I don't think makes the team. If Chung does his impact is minimal. Harmon is steady at ss.

On offense Amendola gets hurt again. But Dobson by mid season is a consistent playmaker at X. Kenbrell Thompkins continues to make plays and earns consistent snaps and makes play after play. By mid season both Dobson and Kenbrell are consistent playmakers and stretching the field. Vereen will be the featured back with 1000 rushing yards and 6-800 receiving yards. Ridley is productive as well. Boyce earns a couple reps in the slot to put defenses on its heels. I think we sign Jermichael Finley who teams with Gronk to form a better 2TE set than Hernandez.. Finley has been cleared to play. He is a good blocker and very good pass catcher. At 6'5 250 and 35" arms he is tremendous in the red zone with Gronk. In 2TE sets our run game prospers due to Gronk/Finley blocking combo. They are like extra OLineman. I hope Halapio converts to center like many scouts said. He has the power to man up big DTs by himself. Fleming/Cannon are OK at tackle but dynamic ast guard. They should battle for RG spot. Mankins/Halapio/,Cannon or Fleming makes for a powerful interior OLine. Add Bookends Vollmer,Solder and the OLine can dominate for a change. I have hope for stork but the jury is out on his power and ability to handle a NT without help. Many great college centers struggled due to lack of power. Peter konz comes to mind. Let's get our most dominant lineman on the field. Denver's DLine is going to be dominant with players returning from injury and free agents they added. We need an OLine that can punch them back in the mouth.

Rob0729 said:

Ok, with two weeks before camp, I figured I would get my season predictions out of the way. Of course I will probably change them by the beginning of the season. But what the hell:

Patriots

In General

• The Pats will finish the season 13-3. I just think this season's schedule will be easier than last year.
• My early target for losses are @ Green Bay, @ Indy, and Cincy. Not that I think any are neccesarily better than the Pats. It is always hard to beat Green Bay in Green Bay especially in late November. Cincy is on a short week and the second night game in a row. Plus, their defense is a good match up for any offense. I think Indy treats the game like a playoff game for revenge for getting embarrassed in the playoffs last year.

Offense

• Gronk will play the entire year and have over 1,200 yards and 13 TDs
• Aaron Dobson will have over 1,000 yards
• Stork will win the starting job. Wendell gets cut.
• Brady will pass for over 5,000 yards and have 37 TDs
• We will see Vereen become close to what Sproles was in NO. He will have about 1,000 all purpose yards. I will say about 400 rushing and 600 receiving.
• White will take over the role that Woodhead left a year ago. He will have a solid rookie season as a situational RB. I say about 500 all purpose yards.
• LaFell will have about 600 yards and 6 TDs.
• Both Boyce and Thompkins make the final 53 roster. Boyce becomes the kick returner. Boyce has a better season than Thompkins. Thompkins is regularly inactive.
• Ridley has a bounce back year with about 1,100 yards and 9 TDs and only fumbling once.
• Amendola has a better year than Edelman. Amendola has about 900 yards and 6 TDs. Edelman has 800 yards and 5 TDs.

Defense

• NFL The defense will have the most blitzes of any season in the Belichick era
• The defense will look more like the Dynasty years in that you will see a lot more presnap movement and delayed blitzes and stunts than in recent year.
• Chandler Jones has 15 sacks or more sacks
• Easley will be practicing the first week of camp and gets 5 sacks his rookie season
• I think the starting CB opposite Revis (at least after week 4) will be a match up based type of call. I think Browner will start against big receivers. Dennard or Ryan will get the call against smaller ones.
• Hightower will play situational DE in subpackages and be primarily a pass rusher. He will have a bounce back year now that he will be playing in a position that fits his strength. I expect him to have 7 sacks.
• The DTs that make the roster are Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, and Siliga. Kelly will see the most time on the field than anyone. He will play most downs. Wilfork will play only primarily first and second down. Easley and Jones will be situational pass rushers. Siliga will be a run down specialist.
• Wilfork will have a subpar year at least for his standards. I will say he will be slightly above average coming down from his Pro Bowl caliber.
• Collins has a break out second year. I give him 7 sacks, 4 INTS, and 2 FF. He will be the guy who covers TEs unless Browner is on a certain play.
• Harmon has a solid second year. I think he more than adequately fills in for the starting position opposite McCourty.
• Speaking of McCourty, he has an All Pro season with the improved secondary and more aggressive front seven.
• The defense will be top five in points allowed. It will be in the top 10 in most key categories most importantly third downs.
• Revis will win DPOY. Not necessarily that he is the best defensive player in the league (although he might be), but the perception of the Patriots defense will be so radically shifted that people will give all the credit to him.
• Pat Chung is somewhat productive in a limited role.
• Will Smith ends up losing rotational snaps to players from other positions like Hightower and Easley. He starts the season as the second guy off the best after Michael Buchannon who has a nice second year jump in production. Smith could get cut during the season or not even make it out of camp. I like the signing, but something tells me he will disappoint.

NFL In General

Division Winners

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Cincy
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Broncos
Wild Cards: San Diego, Ravens

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Falcons
NFC West:Seahawks

Wild Cards: 49ers, Cardinals

Wild Card Round
Broncos over Ravens
San Diego over Cincy

Eagles over Cardinals
Falcons over 49ers

Division Round
Pats over San Diego
Broncos over Colts

Seahawks over Falcons
Packers over Eagles

Conference Championships
Pats over Broncos
Seahawks over Packers

Super Bowl
Patriots over Seahawks (that is my heart, my head says the other way)

Superlatives
MVP - Aaron Rodgers
OPOY - Brady
DPOY - Revis
OROY - Mike Evans
DROY - Clowney

General Thoughts

• Seattle will be the first Super Bowl winner since the Patriots (I think) to win a playoff game the following year.
• The Broncos offense take a significant step back this year (which will still make them very good). I think both Manning and Welker show their age this year. Manning has a solid season, but like Brady's last year will be a very bad year by his standards. For all the hype about Sanders becoming a 1,000 yard receiver with Manning, I think he falls far short of it by a decent amount (200-300 yards). Because of this and a tough schedule, I expect them to not have a bye this year.
• The AFC closes the gap a bit from with the NFC, but will still be a handful of quality teams and most of the conference will be mediocre to bad.
• The Colts will be a great regular season team (12-4), but crumble again in the playoffs when they face a good team in the division round. They will benefit from a weak division.
• Teams taking a step back (be worse than last year by a bit) will be Denver, 49ers, Carolina, KC, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jets
• Teams taking a step up will be Arizona, Green Bay, Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington
• Coaches getting fired: Joe Philbin, Doug Marrone (the Bills will be sold and they will look for a big name head coach), Dennis Allen, and Rex Ryan (yes, I am predicting a clean sweep of coaches in the AFC East not named Belichick this season)
• Geno Smith will win the fixed QB competition in the preseason even though Vick outplays him. Michael Vick will be starting for the Jets by week 5. Geno Smith will be starting again by week 10 because Vick is injured.
• As I said, the Bills will be sold most likely to Jon Bon Jovi's group. My prediction for next offseason is that they trade San Francisco for Jim Harbaugh.
• Colin Kaepernick has a big step back in production due to age wall drops in production from Frank Gore and Anquan Bolden.
• Eli Manning continues to struggle and either gets cut or traded after the season.
• Brian Hoyer wins the starting job in Cleveland.

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There are a few things I disagree with (obviously the Amendola part ) but overall I think you did an outstanding job here Rob. Very insightful and was one of the most enjoyable posts I have read on this board in my time here.

I am big Rob Ninkovich fan but I do believe Michael Buchanan is going to take reps from him this year and push him hard for playing time. I love Buchanan, I think he is a freakish talent, and if not for his inability to set the edge/hold containment last season he would not have lost the playing time he did and was pacing 6 sacks early on as a sub rusher.

goheels22002 said:

View attachment 6709

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Cant tell if



or

Rob0729 said:

Division Winners

NFC South: Falcons


Wild Card Round

Falcons over 49ers

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I think this was a terrific post. And I especially like how you snuck something completely outrageous
in there (re: Falcons). Wow - that's a gutsy prediction that you're not going to see very often anywhere.

Collins will be a STUD this year.
Gronk will play in 14+ games this year
Boyce doesn't make roster
Revis will only have 4 INT..but only becasue teams won't throw at him.
CJ finishes with 16.5 Sacks

Finish 12-4 again-Lose in SB
L @KC
L@Bills
L@GB

How many pro bowlers do you predict? (if this all happens) Obvious ones being Brady, Gronk, Revis, McCourty and probably Collins/Jones going by your list. What about the O-Line, Mayo, Dobson?

Brady6 said:

I am big Rob Ninkovich fan but I do believe Michael Buchanan is going to take reps from him this year and push him hard for playing time. I love Buchanan, I think he is a freakish talent, and if not for his inability to set the edge/hold containment last season he would not have lost the playing time he did and was pacing 6 sacks early on as a sub rusher.

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I also think Buchanan is a freak. He beat the jets Ferguson for a sack while he had help on the block. At Illinois the coaches said Mercilus had the sacks but Buchanan was the terror offenses feared once the game started. He was longer and More flexible than Mercilus and even slightly more explosive. I think Buchanan and Moore have huge upside. If we line up in the 3-4 a couple times, Buchanan and Collins would be ferocious.

I'm sure Jones gets double digit sacks again but I'm not sure yet he gets to 16 sacks level. He struggled at times last year especially with bigger Tackles and the better ones. But he especially struggles the bigger even just mediocre tackles like McKinney. He needs to get stronger and improve before we can say he is a 16+ sack guy. Hopefully he does get better. Mayock envisioned him a top pass rusher if he filled his frame out to 275-280 lbs. I really want to see Buchanan become a starter opposite Jones. He is so explosive and Athletic and he is very intense.