Reiss doesn't consider Ridley a roster lock

strngplyr said:

I usually get mocked when I say that. Ridley doesn't have that 6th gear, but he gets to 5th as fast or faster than just about any running back in the NFL.

Not many people hit the hole as fast as he's capable. His balance is also pretty insane.

Ridley is one of the most consistent runners, his biggest and main issue is the fumbling, if he gets that fixed he can be a consistent top 5-7 in yardage back (if we'd give him the ball that much).

Unfortunately, despite his talent, it's all worthless if he's that big of a liability, a fumble every ~45 or so touches is a little too much for my liking if we want him to be a 20 touch per game kinda guy. Hopefully he gets it together, his personality and skill set are both things I want on the team long term.

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I agree. He has unique cutting ability in close quaters and i really don't care if he has no 50 yard runs. That's what passing is for. I'd rather have both he and Blount, but if i had to have one (fumbling problem dealt with) I'd take Ridley. He moves the chains.

Deus Irae said:

I hear you. I expect Ridley will make the team. I expect that he'll start the season as the team's #1 traditional RB, and Vereen will start the season as the team's #1 3rd down back. I'm also someone who thinks that Reiss is a far better reporter than he is an analyst. I just don't get the shots at Reiss, in this particular case, for seeing some small percentage chance of a potential shocker when we're talking about a guy who's been in the doghouse in multiple seasons, and who lost his RB1 role at the end of last season.

Brady cut = shocker
Mayo cut = shocker
Ridley cut = surprising, but not shocking the world

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I would be shocked if Ridley's cut, like I was shocked that BJ took Maroney's job. Maroney had NFL talent, but was a meathead, or shied from contact. If Ridley's cut it's because he's not serious about ball security or some other character issue. He's our best runner by a pretty good margin.

RayClay said:

I would be shocked if Ridley's cut, like I was shocked that BJ took Maroney's job. Maroney had NFL talent, but was a meathead, or shied from contact. If Ridley's cut it's because he's not serious about ball security or some other character issue. He's our best runner by a pretty good margin.

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Since we've not seen the new guys, we don't know if that's true.

RayClay said:

I would be shocked if Ridley's cut, like I was shocked that BJ took Maroney's job. Maroney had NFL talent, but was a meathead, or shied from contact. If Ridley's cut it's because he's not serious about ball security or some other character issue. He's our best runner by a pretty good margin.

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I'd actually put down the "shocked" reaction as well. He's had his struggles but he's manned up and even put his face out there on NFLN. I think this kid gets it. I'm not ready to write him off yet. Could I be wrong? Hell yes. But he seems like a good dude who will give 100% effort, and we've seen what he can be when he's rollin' right.

Hard guy to root against.

Deus Irae said:

Since we've not seen the new guys, we don't know if that's true.

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I don't believe in the unknown. I know that's an unpopular stance here.

Now, had we drafted a Heisman trophy winner, or a first rounder, I'd have to take that into consideration, but we didn't. That being the case, we have three running backs (not Develin) who have run the ball for us in NFL competition and a universe of running backs who might be available, who haven't.

Until we at least see a play from scrimmage in a preseason game, they need to prove it.

OhExaulted1 said:

I'd actually put down the "shocked" reaction as well. He's had his struggles but he's manned up and even put his face out there on NFLN. I think this kid gets it. I'm not ready to write him off yet. Could I be wrong? Hell yes. But he seems like a good dude who will give 100% effort, and we've seen what he can be when he's rollin' right.

Hard guy to root against.

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Who knows what goes on behind the scenes? We really don't. I remember all the yak about how hard Ocho's working and he really gets it, last player at practice yada yada. Not putting him in thatg category, just saying who knows.

Hell, the murderer was a happy upbeat guy with a great smile. We'll have to see how he's used in preseason to get a clue how he stands with the team.

Brady6 said:

These are the only RBs in the NFL that I can say are better than Stevan Ridley is –

1. Adrian Peterson
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Frank Gore
6. Arian Foster
7. Matt Forte
8. Alfred Morris

Outside of that, he falls into the next tier of RBs like Lacy, Murray, Matthews, Spiller, and others who could rank in different orders depending on the season. I do not think it makes sense to consider cutting a player that could have a case easily made for him being top 10 at his position in the NFL.

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Hate to say it, but i predict that Chris Johnson will be back in the top 10 this season. The Jets love to run and Johnson brings receiving skills that very few RBs have.

According to this site theres actually quite a few RBs better than Ridley. http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/playerstats.php?pos=RB For the few carries that Bolden had in 2013 his numbers compare very close to Ridleys.

Deus Irae said:

You're calling a guy who lost his starting job to Blount a top 10 RB. If we only add your overlooked Martin, and the guy who beat Ridley out last year, that already puts Ridley outside the top 10.

That doesn't even get into Spiller/Jackson, or Bernard, or Lacy, or Ivory, or Ellington, or Ball (Or Moreno, for that matter), and so on.

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He lost his starting job due to ball security issues, he was fumbling and was benched because of that. It was not an indication of Ridley’s ability as a runner only his ability to secure the football.

I do not think it is clear cut that the players you listed are better than Ridley, none of them have ever produced at the level Ridley did in 2012.

Brady6 said:

He lost his starting job due to ball security issues, he was fumbling and was benched because of that. It was not an indication of Ridley’s ability as a runner only his ability to secure the football.

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Part of one's ability as a runner is holding on to the ball, so it certainly was in indication of his ability as a runner. Blount beat out Ridley. End of story. Even for you, Ridley doesn't crack the top 10.

Brady6 said:

I do not think it is clear cut that the players you listed are better than Ridley, none of them have ever produced at the level Ridley did in 2012.

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You missed 3 players in his own division, 1 of whom is in decline and would have a weaker case, one of whom has been more productive when healthy, and one of whom is pretty clearly better but more limited: Spiller, Jackson and Ivory. As for the raw data, you seem to have missed Spiller in 2012 and Jackson in 2009, to say nothing of overall numbers. Also, cherry picking one year, and it's not even last year? Tsk, tsk.

Deus Irae said:

Part of one's ability as a runner is holding on to the ball, so it certainly was in indication of his ability as a runner. Blount beat out Ridley. End of story. Even for you, Ridley doesn't crack the top 10.

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If Blount really beat out Ridley, why is Blount on the Steelers? Your telling me we could not anti-up less than $2M per and $950K guaranteed for our STARTING RB? Blount started games while Ridley was working through issues with ball security, he had two big games so the team road the wave.

You missed 3 players in his own division, 1 of whom is in decline and would have a weaker case, one of whom has been more productive when healthy, and one of whom is pretty clearly better but more limited: Spiller, Jackson and Ivory. As for the raw data, you seem to have missed Spiller in 2012 and Jackson in 2009, to say nothing of overall numbers. Cherry picking one year? Tsk, tsk.

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I did not miss them I just disagree with your stating that they are without a doubt better than Ridley, as I said in my original post, there is a group of players below the top 8 or 9 RBs in the NFL that could align in different orders depending on the season. None of them is clearly better than the other.

If Ridley had received the same 290 carries he did in 2012, he would have finished with 1247 yards and 11 touchdowns, that is nearly identical to his 2012 season, the only thing that changed dramatically was his opportunity, because he missed 2 games and had the ball security issues. I did not cherry pick any stats, Ridley has been in the league for 3 seasons and has performed at a high level in all 3, his only issues has been fumbling.

Brady6 said:

If Blount really beat out Ridley, why is Blount on the Steelers? Your telling me we could not anti-up less than $2M per and $950K guaranteed for our STARTING RB? Blount started games while Ridley was working through issues with ball security, he had two big games so the team road the wave.

I did not miss them I just disagree with your stating that they are without a doubt better than Ridley, as I said in my original post, there is a group of players below the top 8 or 9 RBs in the NFL that could align in different orders depending on the season. None of them is clearly better than the other.

If Ridley had received the same 290 carries he did in 2012, he would have finished with 1247 yards and 11 touchdowns, that is nearly identical to his 2012 season, the only thing that changed dramatically was his opportunity, because he missed 2 games and had the ball security issues. I did not cherry pick any stats, Ridley has been in the league for 3 seasons and has performed at a high level in all 3, his only issues has been fumbling.

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Using your logic, Arrington is a better CB than Revis, because he once had a 7 INT season, and Revis has never had that many. And that "If... carries" thing? That's a Y/A issue, and Ridley falls behind Spiller and Ivory on that one, and tied with Jackson, who's a better receiver. You throw stats around blindly, without thinking. They end up undercutting your arguments instead of the arguments of those you're debating.

And that Blount argument? He beat out Ridley. End of story. What team he's on now is irrelevant.

Brady6 said:

You could begin with naming any other RB that you would consider without a doubt better than Stevan Ridley. Outside of maybe Doug Martin who I overlooked I do not think you will have many.

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RBs I would swap in an instant for Ridley:

Bernard
Bush
Spiller
Martin
Stacy (almost beat the Seahawks by himself with Clemens as his qb. Disregard his ypc, dude will be a beast with Bradford back and Robinson at LG)
Lacy

Toss ups:

Bell (need to see more with a better OL this year. Already can catch the ball at a high level.)
Blount
Woodhead/Mathews
F. Jackson (33 years old)
Rice (was 2013 an anomaly?)
McFadden (will he ever be healthy?)
Ellington (need to see more)

Add those 6 to your previous list of 8 and that's 14. Throw Ridley in with the toss-ups and he's what I've said for two years: he's an average RB.

Above average running ability - no receiving ability - fumbling issues.

Ridley's best year that fans always reference he wasn't even top 10 in total yardage for RBs.

Deus Irae said:

Using your logic, Arrington is a better CB than Revis, because he once had a 7 INT season, and Revis has never had that many. And that "If... carries" thing? That's a Y/A issue, and Ridley falls behind Spiller and Ivory on that one, and tied with Jackson, who's a better receiver. You throw stats around blindly, without thinking. They end up undercutting your arguments instead of the arguments of those you're debating.

And that Blount argument? He beat out Ridley. End of story. What team he's on now is irrelevant.

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That would be putting a significantly higher value on interceptions than I would. I look at things like completion percentage and QB rating against in order to assess a CBs performance. Just like, I look at things like YPC, yards after contact, and percent of runs stuffed with RBs.

A reliable average starting RB is all the patriots need to succeed. After all, the patriot role is that of one of the RB by committee troika.

Personally, I would consider extending both Vereen and Ridley before the season starts. Of course, this is unlikely, but extending one of them would help the running game going forward. If we extended both, we would have Vereen, Ridley and White for next year. Bolden would be a very replaceable RFA.
Our current situation is go into the next off-season with White, Bolden as an RFA (or one of the UDFA's).

patsinthesnow said:

RBs I would swap in an instant for Ridley:

Bernard
Bush
Spiller
Martin
Stacy (almost beat the Seahawks by himself with Clemens as his qb. Disregard his ypc, dude will be a beast with Bradford back and Robinson at LG)
Lacy

Toss ups:

Bell (need to see more with a better OL this year. Already can catch the ball at a high level.)
Blount
Woodhead/Mathews
F. Jackson (33 years old)
Rice (was 2013 an anomaly?)
McFadden (will he ever be healthy?)
Ellington (need to see more)

Add those 6 to your previous list of 8 and that's 14. Throw Ridley in with the toss-ups and he's what I've said for two years: he's an average RB.

Above average running ability - no receiving ability - fumbling issues.

Ridley's best year that fans always reference he wasn't even top 10 in total yardage for RBs.

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If Ridley gets 250carries this season he will have atleast 1200 and 10TDs.

He's a very good running back which is hard to deny after seeing his 2012 campaign and what he did last season after only starting and being the lead back in 6 games he still had 700

i would keep him....hes too explosive, more-so than any other rb i have seen in my years watching the team....law firm would get what the OL gave him and then fall forwards (which is good thing) and maroney wasnt physical enough....you got to give him one more chance with the fumbles

does he have small hands or just lose focus and technique when lunging for the extra yards? or both?

I don't consider a label of "near lock" asinine for Ridley. BB wants a consistent 4.0 YPC back who doesn't risk putting the ball on the ground with poor technique. Ridley lost the lead in Buffalo when the Pats were struggling to find a receiving game, and lost the game in Carolina with a goal line fumble. They were not simply mistakes. They were critical, game-changing mistakes, and neither was anything other than the product of sloppy handling. He showed his ball handling failures more frequently than those two mistakes, and was lucky there were not more.

BJGE was the perfect Pats back. Not for talent, but because he was cheap, disciplined and consistent when with the Pats. The fact that Ridley, if he can protect the rock, is exciting or electric with his physical potential, is likely not high on BB's list of concerns. The fact that after 2 full NFL seasons it suddenly dawned on him he shouldn't swing the ball away from his body and sought guidance from Faulk is probably not that important either (that probably should have dawned on him in his first year or when he had issues in season 2). If he demonstrates the same poor form in preseason and puts the ball on the ground, and any alternative shows a consistent ability for a 4.0 YPC, then I could easily see Ridley being shown the door in a contract year when teaching benefits some other team the next year.

I like Ridley, and hope he corrects his ball handling technique because he can be great with his quickness and agility. To say BB cannot live without Ridley, thus making Ridley a lock, fairly ignores what BB values in backs - cost, consistency and diversity. Ridley has 1 of those 3 traits. Vereen has 2 if not all 3 (I would hesitate on consistency because of the injury factor), making him a more likely lock.

Brady6 said:

If Blount really beat out Ridley, why is Blount on the Steelers? Your telling me we could not anti-up less than $2M per and $950K guaranteed for our STARTING RB? Blount started games while Ridley was working through issues with ball security, he had two big games so the team road the wave.

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I expect that if it had been Ridley who was the free agent and gotten that offer from the Steelers, BB would have passed on him too. He just doesn't value RBs that highly.

Brady6 said:

That would be putting a significantly higher value on interceptions than I would. I look at things like completion percentage and QB rating against in order to assess a CBs performance. Just like, I look at things like YPC, yards after contact, and percent of runs stuffed with RBs.

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Your take on INTs wasn't the issue, or the point. Your manner use of stats and "production" was. If you're looking at YPC, Ridley's behind Spiller and Ivory, and even with Jackson, despite having spent his career aided by the fact that he's had the better QB to make life easier for him. Yards after contact is an obviously biased metric choice when you're comparing to a speed and avoid guy like Spiller, etc....

Or, to put it another way, Lacy won rookie of the year and made the Pro Bowl in his only NFL season, yet you dismissed him out of hand.

Deus Irae said:

You missed 3 players in his own division, 1 of whom is in decline and would have a weaker case, one of whom has been more productive when healthy, and one of whom is pretty clearly better but more limited: Spiller, Jackson and Ivory. As for the raw data, you seem to have missed Spiller in 2012 and Jackson in 2009, to say nothing of overall numbers. Also, cherry picking one year, and it's not even last year? Tsk, tsk.

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Way to complain about Brady6 cherry picking one year for Ridley while at the same time cherry picking (Not even last year!) 2012 for Spiller and 2009 for Jackson to boost your argument for them.

Maybe you can explain which overall numbers you're using to conclude that Jackson and Ivory are better than Ridley.