Should the Pats Attempt to Sign Jimmy Graham to an Offer Sheet?

Being the slow season, I thought I'd throw this out for discussion. I am generally NOT at all in favor of signing a UFA designated with the franchise tag, and I tended to discount discussion earlier this offseason regarding Jimmy Graham. But with an arbitrator declaring that Graham is to be considered a TE under the franchise tag designation and the Saints reportedly starting negotiations with Graham's agent over at "ground zero", I thought it was at least worth considering the possibility that the Pats might make a run at signing Graham to an offer sheet.

Reasons for and against this that immediately come to mind:

Con:

- 2014 cap space, and long term financial commitment.
- The amount of cap space devoted to the TE position (especially with Aaron Hernandez's dead money hit for 2014).
- The possibility that signing Graham could hurt the team's ability to extend key players such as Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty.
- Giving up 2015 and 2016 1st round picks.
- Potentially alienating Rob Gronkowski if Graham's deal ends up with more guaranteed or total money.

Pro:

- The combination of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham on the field at the same time would be virtually unstoppable, and would allow the Pats to run 2-TE sets which have been missing since 2012.
- The red zone offense would be unbelievable.
- Combined with the talent on defense, the team would be in immediate position to dominate in a way that we haven't seen since 2007. Top 3 on both offense and defense not at all out of the question.
- Graham's contract and cap hit are likely to be more manageable than some of the fantasy speculation about a top WR like Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald, and he is considerably younger.
- The draft picks are likely to be very late 1st round.
- With Rob Gronkowski's injury history and a decision coming up in 2015 whether to pay a big option bonus, having Graham signed long term would be a nice insurance option.

I'm on the fence, and I think it's very unlikely, but I thought it was worth discussing, especially given the slow season.

The Pats would have to do some major reshuffling of the cap in order to do so, but that would have the potential to be the finest offense in NFL history if Dobson makes the leap and the replacement interior OL prove to be effective in actually creating a pocket for Brady to step up into (on top of health). It would definitely spell the end for Mankins in New England. I would say yes, though. Brady doesn't have a whole lot of time left and the addition of Graham on top of the additions on the defensive side of the ball makes this squad an instant Super Bowl favorite with health.

If we could get rid of Amendola, and Arrington's contracts Yes, I'd offer him a 5 year deal

One good thing is after July 15th, the Pats can offer him a contract and structure it any way they want as long as Graham agrees. The Saints, from my understanding, cannot match any offer after July 15th because the CBA bars them from giving Graham a long term contract after that date. So they will have some flexibility to structure it so they can fit him under the cap this year without making the offer easy enough for the Saints to match.

I don't think Belichick does it though. Two first rounders and making him the top paid TE in the league is a little rich. I still believe for the most part it is only worth giving up two first rounders for a elite QB in his mid twenties.

That said, adding Graham to the roster would make the Pats probably the favorites to go to the Super Bowl in the AFC and possibly to win it all. If the Pats could get one or two Super Bowl rings out of a deal like it, it is a no brainer to give up two low first rounders. But there is no guarantees. So I think I would pass. Although I wouldn't be upset if Belichick did pull the trigger.

Rob0729 said:

One good thing is after July 15th, the Pats can offer him a contract and structure it any way they want as long as Graham agrees. The Saints, from my understanding, cannot match any offer after July 15th because the CBA bars them from giving Graham a long term contract after that date. So they will have some flexibility to structure it so they can fit him under the cap this year without making the offer easy enough for the Saints to match.

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That is correct, as Joel Corry of the NFP discussed today:

Graham can appeal Burbank’s decision within ten days to a three-person appeals panel. Unless granted an expedited appeal, there wouldn’t be a resolution with the appeals process before the July 15 deadline for franchise players to sign multi-year deals with their teams.

The July 15 deadline doesn’t appear to apply to offer sheets. The NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) has a July 22 deadline for transition players signing a contract with another club but is silent on the issue with franchise players. Seemingly, Graham would have until the Tuesday after the 10th week of the regular season (November 11) to sign an offer sheet, which the Saints would have five days to match. If the offer wasn’t matched, the Saints would receive two first round picks (2015 and 2016) as compensation from the signing team.

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What's next for Jimmy Graham? | National Football Post

Corry also notes that the Saints currently only have $1.6M in cap space (Graham's franchise tender currently counts $7.053M against their cap).

Rob0729 said:

I don't think Belichick does it though. Two first rounders and making him the top paid TE in the league is a little rich. I still believe for the most part it is only worth giving up two first rounders for a elite QB in his mid twenties.

That said, adding Graham to the roster would make the Pats probably the favorites to go to the Super Bowl in the AFC and possibly to win it all. If the Pats could get one or two Super Bowl rings out of a deal like it, it is a no brainer to give up two low first rounders. But there is no guarantees. So I think I would pass. Although I wouldn't be upset if Belichick did pull the trigger.

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I agree. I think it's unlikely, but it's still intriguing enough that I thought it warranted discussion.

I'd say it's more than unlikely, I can't remember the last time a team gave up 2 1sts and a big long term contract for a FA.

I don't think our cap could realistically accommodate it. To stay competitive, you need to be hitting on those first round picks, since if they're as good as advertised they give you four years of cheap, upper-tier production (and if they're really good, a cheap fifth year as well). Giving up two firsts is just way too much, IMO. I think the loss of draft picks would be an even bigger issue than the salary that he would command.

I don't think they SHOULD try to sign him, but it would be really cool seeing Gronk and Graham playing together. It'd be a Calvin Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald type duo of the tight end position.

Too expensive though.

Marqui said:

I'd say it's more than unlikely, I can't remember the last time a team gave up 2 1sts and a big long term contract for a FA.

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The last time was in 2000 when Dallas did it for WR Joey Galloway. I agree it's a very long shot. But given all the other pieces currently in place for the Pats to make a serious SB run, adding someone like Graham would be intriguing.

It would be aweeome, but it isn happening IMO.

mayoclinic said:

I'm on the fence, and I think it's very unlikely, but I would it was worth discussing, especially given the slow season.

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That's my thoughts on the matter as well. A lot of people will just outright dismiss it, but anytime you have the chance to add one of the best players at a position of need, you have to think about it. It's why they pulled the trigger on Revis, because a guy that is that much better than his peers is worth it.

And in this case, we saw how much the Pats were willing to spend on TE before Hernandez went on his killing spree.

Ultimately, the price will be too steep in both picks and money, but it's fun to think about how ridiculous that offense would be.

Not in a million years. He would be too expensive if you just look at the amount of money it would take, to say nothing of losing the 2 1st rounders.

I would trade two #32's for Graham. We could expect BB to blow one of those anyway, so..

The money on the other hand is complicated.

Let's see, (a) two first rounders or (b) the greatest team in the history of the NFL. I choose B.

Belichick has been fishing around for another tight end in FA and foregoing drafting one. Maybe his eye was on jimmy graham the whole time.

Andre Johnson is a much better/feasible option IMO. He would play every snap unlike Graham and cost at the most 1 1st rounder. Getting his 11 million under the cap wouldn't be hard and if he's holding out just because of his desire to win (Rapoport has said this), then he would probably restructure to a more reasonable deal.

A Jimmy Graham trade is a mess. Two 1sts and a huge contract for a part-time player? No thanks.

Andre for a 2nd, Amendola, and Boyce. He restructures for 2 years 18 million. Boom.

TommyBrady12 said:

Let's see, (a) two first rounders or (b) the greatest team in the history of the NFL. I choose B.

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This move would not make them the greatest team in the history of the NFL. It wouldn't even make them the greatest team in Patriots history.

I don't think we will have the top 2 highest paid TE's in the league on the same team at the same time. That's if he doesn't try and get a top receiver contract (which is what he's claiming he is)

I just wish Graham played for the Giants…

Then I'd be like: Just doooeeet!! Doooeeet!! Dooeeet!!

Soo.. I ask this as more of a fun exercise in imagine-ifs.. what would we need to do to fit both Graham and Johnson under the cap?

Brady restructure..

Danger Zone said:

Soo.. I ask this as more of a fun exercise in imagine-ifs.. what would we need to do to fit both Graham and Johnson under the cap?

Brady restructure..

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There's no real room in TFB's contract for a restructure this year. His salary is only $2M IIRC.