Can Minitron Repeat in 2014?

BradyFTW! said:

1. In his prime, Welker was much better than Edelman is.

Click to expand...

I am not ready to make that conclusion yet personally, I think that Edelman had his first opportunity to be the lead dog last year and he played as well as Welker did in his first season in that role back in 2007. Body of work suggest Welker is better but I want to see how Edelman follows up last season, I do not dismiss the possibility that Edelman can duplicate the success at age 27-32 that Welker did with us.

2. Even still, plenty of us thought that targeting him so frequently was to the detriment of the overall offense once the end of season/playoffs came around.

Click to expand...

I agree with that, but I do not think Brady sees it that way. I think that Brady throws to the open player and more times than not Welker and now Edelman are open.

As far as the catch ratio stat, I'm again not sure how that makes the case that you're trying to make. If anything, it just demonstrates that there isn't a ton of room for him to improve on a per-target basis in the role that he was previously in. If he's going to become a more efficient player, that will likely happen by being targeted less, but in more favorable situations.

Click to expand...

Edelman had the highest catch ratio of any player in the NFL with more than 50 targets in 2013; you do not get much more efficient than that. Many do not like the fact that they are not all 25-yard completions but that is unrealistic, and I do not think that we are all of sudden going to become a vertical offense with Edelman running deep routes.

I was not using targets to make my case for Edelman, I was using targets to say that the improvement in the offense will not come from players like Dobson getting more targets (resulting in Edelman getting less) the improvement in the offense will come from those players converting more of their targets.

There's nothing abstract about this argument, by the way. Just look at the impact that Gronk's health had on Edelman's usage. In the seven games that Gronk played in, Edelman averaged 7 targets and 5 receptions per game, versus ~11.3 and ~7.8 when Gronk was hurt. When Gronk took the field, both Edelman's targets and receptions instantly dropped by about 35%. And yeah, that's a small sample size, but so is Edelman's career production.

Click to expand...

That is misleading, there was a period at mid-season when Amendola returned and the Patriots put him back in his role as the #1 slot WR, those games were the Miami, Pittsburg, and Carolina game. At halftime against the Broncos, the team determined that Amendola was not able to get open enough and that is when Edelman reassumed the lead role in the offense. After that, he went on two great games back to back against Denver and Houston with Gronkowski in the lineup.

In those 3 games when Amendola first returned from the groin/concussion Edelman combine for 10 total targets, that drove down his average. The other games with Gronkowski he averaged 10 targets per game.

Brady6 said:

I think it is important to remember that Welker consistently had 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards and he was paired with Randy Moss, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and others in his career. Edelman was targeted 151 times in 2013; Welker was targeted 174 times in 2012 and 172 times in 2011. Brady threw the football the second most times in his career last season and a lower percent of those passes went to Edelman than went to Welker in any of his seasons here.

Edelman having similar stats does not mean that the rest of the offense is struggling, the football can be distributed the same was the improvements would need to come from the completion percentage of the players improving when targeted. Look at the players last season –

- Edelman – 69.53%
- Vereen – 68.11%
- Amendola – 65.06%
- Hoomanawanui – 63.15%
- Gronkowski – 58.20%
- Collie – 54.54%
- Dobson – 50%
- Boyce – 47.36%
- Thompkins – 45.71%

Outside of Edelman, Vereen, Amendola, and Hoomanawanui every player could significantly improve upon his catch ratio. That is where the improvements will come, that and eliminating targets to players like Collie, Bolden, Mulligan, and any other player that will not have a major role in this offense.

Click to expand...

Yes, we eliminate targets to Collie, Bolden and Mulligan. We add targets to LaFell, White and our 3rd TE.

My only concern is his heath, maybe its inside my head but i question his durability.

mgteich said:

...We add targets to...our 3rd TE.

Click to expand...

I would not include any targets to our 3rd TE, or our 2nd TE either (whoever they end up being).

Brady6 said:

Edelman having similar stats does not mean that the rest of the offense is struggling, the football can be distributed the same was the improvements would need to come from the completion percentage of the players improving when targeted. Look at the players last season –

- Edelman – 69.53%
- Vereen – 68.11%
- Amendola – 65.06%
- Hoomanawanui – 63.15%
- Gronkowski – 58.20%
- Collie – 54.54%
- Dobson – 50%
- Boyce – 47.36%
- Thompkins – 45.71%

Outside of Edelman, Vereen, Amendola, and Hoomanawanui every player could significantly improve upon his catch ratio. That is where the improvements will come, that and eliminating targets to players like Collie, Bolden, Mulligan, and any other player that will not have a major role in this offense.

Click to expand...

This is sort of tangential, but the catch ratio of the receivers that you are looking to improve are largely the ones to whom Brady makes more challenging throws. Edelman, Vereen, Amendola, and HooMan are primarily being targeted inside the numbers a short distance downfield. Aside from Vereen's difficulty positioning himself to make the catch on the wheel route and Dobson's spell of dropsies that he later corrected, there isn't a ton of room for improvement. It's no secret that Brady is most accurate at the passes right in front of him. The balls on the sideline and down the field are tougher to bring-in because they are longer, more difficult throws. Gronk's catch ratio is partly a function of Brady regularly giving him a chance to go and get 50:50 balls in coverage, and Dobson and Thompkins would get thrown balls on the sideline that would require a remarkable catch, because Brady could give them a low-risk, but low probability chance to catch a pass, when it was simply time to get rid of the ball. I'm not saying that the outside receivers can't improve their hands or even that making a clutch catch can't win the game, but I don't think that an improved catch ratio is going to translate into significantly heightened production or better numbers from the remainder of the receiving corps.

The improvement is likely to come from players being healthier and more effective and from young players who learn to get open with more consistency. The main reason that Edelman was targeted so many times (like Wes before him) was that Brady expected him to be open and defaulted to throwing to him a large amount of the time. Somebody said that Brady throws to the open receiver, but it seems to me that that was more the case before the offense was so heavily based on quick, timing patterns. Now, I think it's more the case that Brady throws to the players who get open with consistency on a given route, makes his read there and sometimes overlooks players who are open elsewhere. If one other receiver can get regular separation, the offense will look different and better and Minitron's numbers will go down.

captain stone said:

I would not include any targets to our 3rd TE, or our 2nd TE either (whoever they end up being).

Click to expand...

It would be strange to sign a free agent TE if we were not going to give him opportunities.

Also, if Brady has more time and isn't worried about being hit as often as he was last year, we may see him being less keyed in on the shorter routes. I think this could have an impact on JE's production too. It seems that when Brady is comfortable in the pocket he (as do most QB's) survey the field better.

Edelman, Edelman, defense be back pedallin.....

If that UFA is Dustin Keller, then I agree; if that UFA is another useless JAG like Matty Mulligan,
then it'll just be more of the same old, same old.

mgteich said:

It would be strange to sign a free agent TE if we were not going to give him opportunities.

Click to expand...

http://patspub.patsfans.com/2014/06...013-numbers-you-should-hope-not/#.U59PG_ldXHQ

The Patriots offense, at least since the arrival of Wes Welker, is designed to feature the slot receiver. Welker was getting a higher percentage of targets from Brady than Edelman did in 2013, and few people saw that as inherently bad.

As I'm fairly sure I said upthread, the question is not whether or not Minitron can replicate his 2013 performance in vacuo. The question is whether or not he repeats it with everyone else still struggling, or with everyone else improving. The former would be horrible for the Patriots. The latter would be horrible for their opponents.

captain stone said:

If that UFA is Dustin Keller, then I agree; if that UFA is another useless JAG like Matty Mulligan,
then it'll just be more of the same old, same old.

Click to expand...

The only reason a Mulligan would be signed would be in case of injury, as was the case last year. I agree that the additional of JAG camp fodder will have little effect on the offense.

The current roster of Gronkowski, Hooman and Williams would obviously need to be upgraded for there to be a significant improvement. I would note that LeFell, Develin and/or one of OL's will get some reps in TE roles.