Realistic expectations for each wide receiver

lurker1965 · Jun 1, 2014

Brady6 said:
That is actually untrue; Edelman led the team in receptions in the preseason, and had 7 receptions for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 1. They paid Amendola based on what the market commanded at the time; Edelman was part of a deeper WR class in both free agency, and a historically deep draft class of wide receivers. Edelman will be the most targeted WR on the team this season if healthy I can all but guarantee it.

Maybe you are right.
I do not think so. Edelman has too much value as a special teamer to risk him, a player who's only injury free season was last year, on offense when you have other options. IMO.

lurker1965 · Jun 1, 2014

pazrul72 said:
Brady has had 400 completions just twice in his career so projecting that many or more seems optimistic to me for a couple reasons. 1) as much as I like the kids potential this is not Moss, Welker, gaffney, and Stallworth. While there should be a year two leap and I expect great things from Dobson there is still a lot of learning to do. 2) The pats have an offensive line that excels in run blocking and added more beef to it. Along with two pretty good backs in their contract year I expect the run/pass ratio to be closer to 50/50 based on the defense with some games being run heavy and others being pass heavy. 3) Brady is going to be 37. Like it or not no matter how well he takes care of his body there is wear and tear and things start to break down. He has a team around him that we do not need him to put the ball up 50 times a game save Brady for the real games that matter.

All of that said I expect Brady's stat line to look like 375 completions for 4200 yards and 35 TD's.
GRONK is the primary threat and a superstar weapon on the Calvin Johnson level when healthy which I think he will be 75 receptions 1100 yards 15 TD's.
Eldeman will not be the primary focus and his stats will drop 70 receptions 700 yards 4 TD's
Amendola will be healthy for 8-10 games and win one or two of them with a crazy game but provide excellent blocking and be a very valuable member of the team 50/450/2
Dobson will miss a game or two and play another couple hurt but when he is on the field will show some serious flashes 60/850/5
Lafell will fill in for Dobson 30/300/2
Vereen is in a contract year and I expect him to put up some very good numbers if he can stay healthy. 50/400/4
Leaving 40 receptions, 400 yards, and 3 TD's for Thompkins, Boyce, Hooman etc while filling in due to injury or as part of a rotation.

Rules and "emphasis" changed. Those numbers reflect when defenders could play defense. Think how many penalties Rodney Harrison would get today.
From Y.A. Tittle to Marino was what, 30 years before the TD record fell? What was it, 30 again before Manning broke it. Then 3 for Brady and 6 more for manning again? (My math may be off).
It seems like every year Brees has more yards than ever before in league history, with the #2 being someone else from that year (Brady, Manning, Romo, whatever).

I think your reasonable prediction might be conservative. Not because Brady has a good year, but because all QBs have a record year.

pazrul72 · Jun 1, 2014

lurker1965 said:
Rules and "emphasis" changed. Those numbers reflect when defenders could play defense. Think how many penalties Rodney Harrison would get today.
From Y.A. Tittle to Marino was what, 30 years before the TD record fell? What was it, 30 again before Manning broke it. Then 3 for Brady and 6 more for manning again? (My math may be off).
It seems like every year Brees has more yards than ever before in league history, with the #2 being someone else from that year (Brady, Manning, Romo, whatever).

I think your reasonable prediction might be conservative. Not because Brady has a good year, but because all QBs have a record year.

Pay me a ton just had the greatest QB season ever with 450 completions for 5477 yards. That was with some incredible weapons and just an ok run game. On top of which I believe pay me a ton is far more selfish and a stat who$e then Tom. I did have more yards for each receiver until I added it all up and came out too short for the left over guys so if Tom threw for 4500 I would not be surprised or object to a slightly higher number. That said you are talking numbers like the 2007 patriots well after the rule change and emphasis. Greatest offense in NFL history are not quite as common as you are making it out to be though I do agree with the sentiment this ain't my grandfathers football. 5,000 yards is the new 4,000. It used to be one hell of a year with just one or two QBs throwing for 4k now you are average at best if you can't hit that mark. The reason I think Brady will have a more average year is injuries, young WR's still not quite ready for prime time though making excellent steps, and a beefy Oline that likes to run block. This is one of the most balanced deep teams I can recall seeing assembled. Only Brady and GRONK qualify as superstars so it's hard to focus or stop any one part and I expect a different "star" every game based on the match up.

OhExaulted1 · Jun 1, 2014

convertedpatsfan said:
That would be 412 completions, a career high for Brady.

I don't think he breaks 400 if we have a better defense and rely more on the run. I think his stat line will look something like this:

348-549 63.4% 4096 30-11 95.7 Rating

patchick · Jun 1, 2014

lurker1965 said:
Um, huh? I said NO ONE goes lights out. How on Earth do you translate that as Gallon goes lights out. Do you only have 3 or 4 wide receiver for the year? divide that by 4 or 5 (they'll pick up a free agent from the CFL or something in November. Slot receivers get hurt.)

I said "somebody like Jeremy Gallon," because you said that:

- Edelman would have no more than 10 catches
- Amendola would be injured
- "yet another undersized slot guy who is not Edelman" would step up
- the slot receivers would combine for 1200 yards and 20 touchdowns

So you have the top two slot receivers making no impact, and the slot receivers as a group combining for the most TDs from the position in team history.

Bonzo · Jun 2, 2014

I don't even feel confident in predicting who makes the team, let alone forecasting their production... My early guess is we'll be treated to at least one surprise (like KT of last year) where a young gun emerges to push a vet for a gig. (Hoping Harrison plays the way he looks!)

lurker1965 · Jun 2, 2014

patchick said:
I said "somebody like Jeremy Gallon," because you said that:

- Edelman would have no more than 10 catches
- Amendola would be injured
- "yet another undersized slot guy who is not Edelman" would step up
- the slot receivers would combine for 1200 yards and 20 touchdowns

So you have the top two slot receivers making no impact, and the slot receivers as a group combining for the most TDs from the position in team history.

Is the only possibility that there will only be 3 slot guys, all of whom are "fragil" because you need an undersized guy to regularly face line backers? That is the one position I'd be surprised if there were no calls to the "shadow" roster starting in October.
Again, if you have 3 WRs, divide it by 4. Roughly 300 yards and 5TDs is not big production - well, at least in yards. ( I say roughly because if Amendola has 325 and our mystery WR has 275, that's roughly.)

Team history: how often do I have to post that history WAS a valid guide. Rules change. We see new passing records every few years for things that used to stand for decades. I'm betting that the league, that wants to promote TDs for fantasy football, succeeds in that. (No, I do not like it, but must admit that exists.)
If you choose to be awed by Drew Brees's new passing yards record in the year several other QBs broke it too, feel free.

patchick · Jun 2, 2014

lurker1965 said:
Again, if you have 3 WRs, divide it by 4. Roughly 300 yards and 5TDs is not big production - well, at least in yards.

In yards, maybe. But it was the 20 TDs from the slot position, cobbled together from what you've described as ineffective JAGs and street FAs that made me say

?

For perspective: it's hard to imagine a better lineup of slot receiving talent than the 2011 Patriots, with Welker (in his top career year), Hernandez and Edelman. They combined for 16 TDs.

Bonzo · Jun 2, 2014

That's a bizarre glitch... Patchick quoted lurker1965, but it displays as if it's my quote and I even got the notification.

patchick · Jun 2, 2014

Bonzo said:
That's a bizarre glitch... Patchick quoted lurker1965, but it displays as if it's my quote and I even got the notification.

Huh, very weird indeed. I'll edit my post and submit the bug!

Bobs My Uncle · Jun 2, 2014

It's an exercise in futility to guess at production numbers before these guys have stepped foot onto the field for TC.

My primary hope is for health amongst the receiving staff, Gronk included. With health in place, and continued development from the kids - Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce, I really like the odds of this group producing some fine numbers.

Blessed with health, I would expect Gronk, Edelman, Amendola and Dobson to see the majority of reps. This is a VERY capable and veteran group that could thrive as the primary unit. Thereafter, you have a couple of young guys - Thompkins and Boyce - who have considerable upside and the benefit of already being experienced in the system and with Brady. I would think that they'd have an excellent chance of cutting into the reps of the above. If either show progress from last year, you have to like seeing such young and still improving kids as the 4th and 5th receiver options off the bench. If so, I'm not sure where a guy like LaFell fits in, despite his salary charge .... unless it's to assume some of the TE role should a guy like Keller or Finley not be added.

meatface · Jun 2, 2014

Bobs My Uncle said:
It's an exercise in futility to guess at production numbers before these guys have stepped foot onto the field for TC.

My primary hope is for health amongst the receiving staff, Gronk included. With health in place, and continued development from the kids - Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce, I really like the odds of this group producing some fine numbers.

Blessed with health, I would expect Gronk, Edelman, Amendola and Dobson to see the majority of reps. This is a VERY capable and veteran group that could thrive as the primary unit. Thereafter, you have a couple of young guys - Thompkins and Boyce - who have considerable upside and the benefit of already being experienced in the system and with Brady. I would think that they'd have an excellent chance of cutting into the reps of the above. If either show progress from last year, you have to like seeing such young and still improving kids as the 4th and 5th receiver options off the bench. If so, I'm not sure where a guy like LaFell fits in, despite his salary charge .... unless it's to assume some of the TE role should a guy like Keller or Finley not be added.

Exactly the numbers themselves aren't that important, what I think is important is for each player to be effectively incorporated into the offense so that the the tam can do what it wants with the ball. Brady doesnt need to make every guy a 1000 yard receiver, he just needs to be able to go out there and put the ball where he wants it and to do so he will need to trust his receivers.

Bonzo · Jun 2, 2014

patchick said:
Huh, very weird indeed. I'll edit my post and submit the bug!

To be honest, I was just relieved to find out I was being spared slaughter in a debate with Patchick.

BobDigital · Jun 2, 2014

My realistic hopes.

Dobson 1000 yards 70 catches 8 TDs (If he plays all 16 games. I would like to see him do that)
Edelman 800 yards 80 catches 6 TDs (He will be good but Amendola will be better than last year I think and split more catches and yards)
Amendola 750 yards 60 catches 5 TDs (These stats might not look a ton better but that is going to be due to Edelman's play. Amendola has more quality reps)
Lafell 650 yards 5 TDs (Dobson's emergence keeps him from doing more)
Gronk 700 yards 10 TDs (Will miss the first 6 weeks and hopefully play in the rest)
Vereen 300 yards 3 TDs (Vereen last year IMO showed limitation which is why we are investing so much in other receiving RBs. I think he will run more and split catches).

Odds and ends 400 yards 3 TDs

Total 4600 yards 40 TDs -

varjao · Jun 2, 2014

I'm fine with any kind of production of our receivers as long as we go 16-0

fumbrunner · Jun 2, 2014

Will be interesting to say the least. I'm pulling for KT. Love his story and potential. By the look of this pic, he's been not taking anything for granted. Looks buff

temp20140530-thompkins-silverman_7589--nfl_mezz_1280_1024.jpg

lurker1965 · Jun 2, 2014

pazrul72 said:
Pay me a ton just had the greatest QB season ever with 450 completions for 5477 yards. That was with some incredible weapons and just an ok run game. On top of which I believe pay me a ton is far more selfish and a stat who$e then Tom. I did have more yards for each receiver until I added it all up and came out too short for the left over guys so if Tom threw for 4500 I would not be surprised or object to a slightly higher number. That said you are talking numbers like the 2007 patriots well after the rule change and emphasis. Greatest offense in NFL history are not quite as common as you are making it out to be though I do agree with the sentiment this ain't my grandfathers football. 5,000 yards is the new 4,000. It used to be one hell of a year with just one or two QBs throwing for 4k now you are average at best if you can't hit that mark. The reason I think Brady will have a more average year is injuries, young WR's still not quite ready for prime time though making excellent steps, and a beefy Oline that likes to run block. This is one of the most balanced deep teams I can recall seeing assembled. Only Brady and GRONK qualify as superstars so it's hard to focus or stop any one part and I expect a different "star" every game based on the match up.

You are right, but actually I was thinking of Drew Brees and the yardage record two(?) years ago. He broke it and had the best season, yardage-wise, ever. Also breaking it was Tom Brady. I think three or four QBs broke the old record that year. The old record was like Dan Fouts in 1981 or something and about 30 years before him like Y.A. Tittle or somebody.

patchick said:
In yards, maybe. But it was the 20 TDs from the slot position, cobbled together from what you've described as ineffective JAGs and street FAs that made me say ?

For perspective: it's hard to imagine a better lineup of slot receiving talent than the 2011 Patriots, with Welker (in his top career year), Hernandez and Edelman. They combined for 16 TDs.

Yeah, that may be a tad optimistic. But not because they aren't viable in the new pass happy, fantasy friendly NFL. Taller receivers usually make better red zone targets.

BTW, I did not call them ineffective. Austin Collie was not "ineffective." He was not a big deal, but the term "ineffective" seems slightly pejorative. (I know what you mean, just want to highlight different meanings for the term and distance myself from it before I become the guy who called Gallon "ineffective." You know how those things can start, right?

)

Oh, sorry, the reply took so long. For some reason the notification system messed up and, even though it used to not exist, I find myself reliant on it. Kinda like cell phones or the internet.

patchick · Jun 2, 2014

Bonzo said:
To be honest, I was just relieved to find out I was being spared slaughter in a debate with Patchick.

So embarassing when you slay the wrong victim.

supafly · Jun 4, 2014

fumbrunner said:
Will be interesting to say the least. I'm pulling for KT. Love his story and potential. By the look of this pic, he's been not taking anything for granted. Looks buff

He shouldn't be "taking anything for granted," because he's definitely on the outside looking in and sitting squarely on the bubble. Just because some guys like Thompkins, Joe Vellano etc did alright and filled in last year doesn't mean they'll be automatically handed jobs in 2014. We all hope that the competition for both WR and DL has increased enough to push some of these guys aside.

Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, LaFell, Slater = 5 already.

Boyce, Thompkins, Gallon, Harrison, etc will likely battle it out for the last spot.

We could keep 7 WRs, but it's probably not likely. If Thompkins steps up and earns the job, then good for him. We'll all be rooting for him. He disappeared at times last year, had trouble beating man coverage, and was benched at one point. He'll need to step it up in training camp for sure. I don't think he caught more than a dozen or so balls from Mid-October on to the end of the year...

Realistic expectations for each wide receiver

lurker1965

In the Starting Line-Up

lurker1965

In the Starting Line-Up

pazrul72

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

OhExaulted1

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

patchick

Moderatrix

Bonzo

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

lurker1965

In the Starting Line-Up

patchick

Moderatrix

Bonzo

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

patchick

Moderatrix

Bobs My Uncle

PatsFans.com Supporter

meatface

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

Bonzo

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

BobDigital

Pro Bowl Player

varjao

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

fumbrunner

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lurker1965

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patchick

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supafly

Eff you, Shula

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