Realistic expectations for each wide receiver

We have a very good combination of veteran receivers (Edelman, LaFell, and Amendola) who have had moderate to high levels of success in their careers, and young up and coming receivers (Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins). What are you expecting from these players realistically in 2014?

For a reference point, these are the receivers along with the stats from their best game of the season –

- Julian Edelman – 13 receptions, 139 yards, 1 touchdown
- Aaron Dobson – 5 receptions, 130 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Brandon LaFell – 4 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown (with Carolina)
- Danny Amendola – 10 receptions, 131 yards
- Josh Boyce – 3 receptions, 49 yards
- Kenbrell Thompkins – 6 receptions, 127 yards, 1 touchdown

These are my projections –

- Julian Edelman – 86 receptions, 946 yards, 11.0 average, 6 touchdowns
- Aaron Dobson – 69 receptions, 1008 yards, 14.25 average, 8 touchdowns
- Brandon LaFell – 45 receptions, 563 yards, 12.5 average, 6 touchdowns
- Danny Amendola – 47 receptions, 487 yards, 10.3 average, 2 touchdowns
- Josh Boyce – 20 receptions, 275 yards, 13.75 average, 1 touchdown
- Kenbrell Thompkins – 15 receptions, 206 yards, 13.73 average, 1 touchdown
- Rob Gronkowski – 72 receptions, 1061 yards, 14.7 average, 13 touchdowns
- Shane Vereen – 58 receptions, 486 yards, 8.4 average, 3 touchdowns

Brady6 said:

We have a very good combination of veteran receivers (Edelman, LaFell, and Amendola) who have had moderate to high levels of success in their careers, and young up and coming receivers (Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins). What are you expecting from these players realistically in 2014?

For a reference point, these are the receivers along with the stats from their best game of the season –

- Julian Edelman – 13 receptions, 139 yards, 1 touchdown
- Aaron Dobson – 5 receptions, 130 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Brandon LaFell – 4 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown (with Carolina)
- Danny Amendola – 10 receptions, 131 yards
- Josh Boyce – 3 receptions, 49 yards
- Kenbrell Thompkins – 6 receptions, 127 yards, 1 touchdown

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What these stats say to me is to confirm eyeball stats and also say somewhat more. All the wide outs have already unexpectedly demonstrated the ability to excel in a single game, save Boyce.

To which I would add the knowledge of their physical characteristics and thus the fairly even spit between Split Ends,' X', Flankers,'Z', and slot backs 'S'.

This is a very young and prospectively much more talented receiving corps then anyone gives them credit for being. They have not reached their peaks, and I would say that only three Amendola, Edelmen and La Fell are near entering their Prime.

Not including Gronkowski and Hoomanawanui, 'Y', as collective receivers, and also young veterans, does the overall receiving an injustice, as one is an All-Pro. The RB receiving is good, and may be improved with potential newcomers White and perhaps Finch, to join Vareen and Bolton, replacing stonehanded Blount.

Certainly none of these receivers and their TE compatriots are beyond their Primes.

Once again we observers see and recall their birthing pains, but do not recognize just how much untapped talent exists here. As fans, we can now safely assume that the receiver issue in its broadest sense to include the various kinds of WRs, TEs, and receiving RBs, is behind us. We can look at other concerns then the receivers.

Brady6 said:

We have a very good combination of veteran receivers (Edelman, LaFell, and Amendola) who have had moderate to high levels of success in their careers, and young up and coming receivers (Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins). What are you expecting from these players realistically in 2014?

For a reference point, these are the receivers along with the stats from their best game of the season –

- Julian Edelman – 13 receptions, 139 yards, 1 touchdown
- Aaron Dobson – 5 receptions, 130 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Brandon LaFell – 4 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown (with Carolina)
- Danny Amendola – 10 receptions, 131 yards
- Josh Boyce – 3 receptions, 49 yards
- Kenbrell Thompkins – 6 receptions, 127 yards, 1 touchdown

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Kenbrell Thompkins will surprise with more improvements than most expect. He is very sudden in his cuts/breaks and highpoints the ball with the best of them. He is not your traditional UFA. He had to attend junior college first. He excelled in spite of horrid qb play. He made explosive plays at Cinci in spite of not having division 1 caliber qb there. He makes great natural adjustments to the ball deep and over the middle. He has run sub 4.4 in some workouts and a pair of 4.40 times at pro day in spite of lacking true division1 coaching/training. He is just a half step away from being Sammy Watkins type who runs away from the entire defense consistently. He was recommended an Olympic speed/flexibility coach to gain that half step maybe more. His cousin Antonio Brown acknowledged he had Far more skill than himself. Forget that undrafted label,he is that guy who falls through the cracks. He had an arrest record and had to attend junior college. After that he was equivalent to a 4/5 star recruit when entering division1. Every college in SEC and Pac12 tried to recruit him among countless others. He signed with Tennessee but changed his mind after coach left. A friend recruited him to Cincinnati. Tennessee said they would allow him to play elsewhere outside SEC or any division1 powerhouse. They gave him a handshake to OK Cincinnati. They revoked it after telling him it was OK. He had to sit out a year so he focused on academics. When he did play, the qb although nothing special but was at least division1 caliber went elsewhere. He was left with a horrific qb so team went run heavy.

KT can be a solid #2 wr. If he works with team and the Olympic trainers hard he can be a possible #ONE/Pro bowler. He has very good suddenness and catch and go quickness. Brady went to him on many critiworkk3rd and longs. Showing he had talent Brady trusted in them situations. I hope he works really hard and makes those minor improvements/refinements to become pro bowl caliber. His talent has been compared to Jeremy Maclin and even s young chad Johnson. He is talented, his only real knock is smaller hands. Far from a typical UFA or late round draft pick.

Now about our WR corps as a whole. The young WRs have some talent to improve/refine with NFL coaching/training. Dobson with refinements is at least Eric Decker caliber. Boyce can be special from the slot. He has similar/ maybe more raw talent than Randall Cobb. Awesome slot talent. And Kenbrell Thompkins is perhaps special. Boom or OK. My favorite. He can be special. Great suddenness and great adjustments to the ball even over the middle. I hope he is working with the Olympic coaches because he could become Sammy watkins talent and ability. His suddenness/quickness caught TFBs attention. Even slightly poor mans Sammy Watkins is good lol.

OH! The line up. LOL

X- Dobson maybe Thompkins
Z- Thompkins/Lafell/Boyce/Edelman/Amendola (no order)
Slot- Amendola/Edelmam
TE Gronk/bulked up Lafell taking nutjobs role.
RB- hopefully Vereen gets slightly stronger,coretains speed and grabs bull by thx horns to become Lethal,3down all purpose back. Because his Receiving skills are special. And having them on the field all 3 downs like Forte,McCoy,MARSHALL FAULK is really Lethal, potentially special.

I hope all our young/fast WRs fulfill their potential. Especially KT,if he works with Olympic trainers to gain a step. He is truly good and could be even better. He has lacked coaching/training other college WRs got. He has very good catch and go suddenness. And made those game winning plays for us. Shows who Brady had confidence in. Doesn't mean others are lacking talent though!

I would love an established wr. Can't believe we let our rivals get mike williams! He would have easily preferred catching from Brady. Cuz that guy is good! But we have some young talent. Hopefully they work harder than every other WR around the NFL.

I think it is going to be an exceptionally balanced receiving corps in terms of production, and see a possibility of 4-5 players over 800 yards. Gronkowski, Edelman, Amendola, Dobson and possibly LaFell are all either above that waterline or capable of getting to it.. And Boyce and Vereen could each go over 500 yards. Brady is going to have many options and a really good run game to go with it. A number 1 is always nice but they have more than enough to get it done this year if the players live up to it. Their passing attack is still not at the point where they can go fast break at will and may not be for the first half of this season but when they can combine all of the elements should end up being a dominant offense.

When i look at the whole package I think this is the best team they have had since 2007.

Edelman - punt returner anything you get from him beyond like 10 catches as WR means someone is injured. I'm not saying he sucks, I'm saying he won't be the focus.
Amendola et al. injured but overlaps so yet another undersized slot guy who is not Edelman steps up. Combined they do like 1200 yards and 20 TDs with no one guy being lights out.
Outside WRs (Think Thompson or Dobson and, I think, Boyce - technically Amendola and Edelman might be included but..., well, you know): Whomever makes it will have a minor, but important, role. combined, maybe 1,000 yards and 15 TDs again with no particular guy being lights out.
Gronk-LaFell about 1,000 yards and 15 TDs with most of that being Gronk, depending on health.
Vareen - ? (I assume health. His drops last year may have been injury related. Or he can't catch. )

I really like the predictions and they make sense, but I just don't see how LaFell can get less than 600 yards. I know we have many options, but this kid was good enough to have 3 straight 600 yards in a very conservative Carolina offense. I think LaFell surprises a lot of us and gives 700-900 yards this year.

lurker1965 said:

Amendola et al. injured but overlaps so yet another undersized slot guy who is not Edelman steps up. Combined they do like 1200 yards and 20 TDs with no one guy being lights out.
Outside WRs (Think Thompson or Dobson and, I think, Boyce - technically Amendola and Edelman might be included but..., well, you know): Whomever makes it will have a minor, but important, role. combined, maybe 1,000 yards and 15 TDs again with no particular guy being lights out.
Gronk-LaFell about 1,000 yards and 15 TDs with most of that being Gronk, depending on health.
Vareen - ? (I assume health. His drops last year may have been injury related. Or he can't catch. )

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So you have Brady throwing for about 3200 yards and 50 TD (+whatever Vereen gets)

I don't know I think if he is gonna get 50+ TD is going to be throwing for more than 4000 yards.

Brady6 said:

These are my projections –

- Julian Edelman – 86 receptions, 946 yards, 11.0 average, 6 touchdowns
- Aaron Dobson – 69 receptions, 1008 yards, 14.25 average, 8 touchdowns
- Brandon LaFell – 45 receptions, 563 yards, 12.5 average, 6 touchdowns
- Danny Amendola – 47 receptions, 487 yards, 10.3 average, 2 touchdowns
- Josh Boyce – 20 receptions, 275 yards, 13.75 average, 1 touchdown
- Kenbrell Thompkins – 15 receptions, 206 yards, 13.73 average, 1 touchdown
- Rob Gronkowski – 72 receptions, 1061 yards, 14.7 average, 13 touchdowns
- Shane Vereen – 58 receptions, 486 yards, 8.4 average, 3 touchdowns

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That would be 412 completions, a career high for Brady.

I'm not a fan of projecting individual stats for WRs because there are only so many passes to go around. If Edelman catches 100 balls again, that would reduce the total number of completions for the rest. But if the defense focuses on Jules and it gives more openings for Amendola, then do we give credit to DA for making catches or Jules for the holes?

What if Gronk gets double-teamed by the safety, which leaves Dobson with one-on-one? And then Dobson's speed forces a defense to leave a wide open hole underneath for Vereen? We'll give credit to Vereen for the catch and run, but without Dobson, it might be a much shorter completion. Or an incomplete if Gronk isn't there and the defense can play differently.

Having said that much, I'd just be happy to see a healthy season from Dobson and Gronk, and enough confidence in Boyce to see him on the field more.

I expect Dobson to have a very solid year if healthy.

convertedpatsfan said:

That would be 412 completions, a career high for Brady.

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It's only 2.6 more completions a game than he had last year.

A top 5 offense, matched with a top 8 defense.

JMC00 said:

It's only 2.6 more completions a game than he had last year.

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True. It's also only 0.9 more completions per game than he had in 2007 when he broke a bunch of records, and only 0.7 more completions per game than when he threw for over 5,000 yards.

Then again, he didn't even average 300 completions in the Super Bowl winning seasons so I don't particularly care if he breaks his completion record or not.

convertedpatsfan said:

That would be 412 completions, a career high for Brady.

I'm not a fan of projecting individual stats for WRs because there are only so many passes to go around. If Edelman catches 100 balls again, that would reduce the total number of completions for the rest. But if the defense focuses on Jules and it gives more openings for Amendola, then do we give credit to DA for making catches or Jules for the holes?

What if Gronk gets double-teamed by the safety, which leaves Dobson with one-on-one? And then Dobson's speed forces a defense to leave a wide open hole underneath for Vereen? We'll give credit to Vereen for the catch and run, but without Dobson, it might be a much shorter completion. Or an incomplete if Gronk isn't there and the defense can play differently.

Having said that much, I'd just be happy to see a healthy season from Dobson and Gronk, and enough confidence in Boyce to see him on the field more.

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I would not expect the numbers I gave to be right on the money, some players will perform worse some will perform better.

Gymrat said:

Kenbrell Thompkins will surprise with more improvements than most expect. He is very sudden in his cuts/breaks and highpoints the ball with the best of them. He is not your traditional UFA. He had to attend junior college first. He excelled in spite of horrid qb play. He made explosive plays at Cinci in spite of not having division 1 caliber qb there. He makes great natural adjustments to the ball deep and over the middle. He has run sub 4.4 in some workouts and a pair of 4.40 times at pro day in spite of lacking true division1 coaching/training. He is just a half step away from being Sammy Watkins type who runs away from the entire defense consistently. He was recommended an Olympic speed/flexibility coach to gain that half step maybe more. His cousin Antonio Brown acknowledged he had Far more skill than himself. Forget that undrafted label,he is that guy who falls through the cracks. He had an arrest record and had to attend junior college. After that he was equivalent to a 4/5 star recruit when entering division1. Every college in SEC and Pac12 tried to recruit him among countless others. He signed with Tennessee but changed his mind after coach left. A friend recruited him to Cincinnati. Tennessee said they would allow him to play elsewhere outside SEC or any division1 powerhouse. They gave him a handshake to OK Cincinnati. They revoked it after telling him it was OK. He had to sit out a year so he focused on academics. When he did play, the qb although nothing special but was at least division1 caliber went elsewhere. He was left with a horrific qb so team went run heavy.

KT can be a solid #2 wr. If he works with team and the Olympic trainers hard he can be a possible #ONE/Pro bowler. He has very good suddenness and catch and go quickness. Brady went to him on many critiworkk3rd and longs. Showing he had talent Brady trusted in them situations. I hope he works really hard and makes those minor improvements/refinements to become pro bowl caliber. His talent has been compared to Jeremy Maclin and even s young chad Johnson. He is talented, his only real knock is smaller hands. Far from a typical UFA or late round draft pick.

Now about our WR corps as a whole. The young WRs have some talent to improve/refine with NFL coaching/training. Dobson with refinements is at least Eric Decker caliber. Boyce can be special from the slot. He has similar/ maybe more raw talent than Randall Cobb. Awesome slot talent. And Kenbrell Thompkins is perhaps special. Boom or OK. My favorite. He can be special. Great suddenness and great adjustments to the ball even over the middle. I hope he is working with the Olympic coaches because he could become Sammy watkins talent and ability. His suddenness/quickness caught TFBs attention. Even slightly poor mans Sammy Watkins is good lol.

OH! The line up. LOL

X- Dobson maybe Thompkins
Z- Thompkins/Lafell/Boyce/Edelman/Amendola (no order)
Slot- Amendola/Edelmam
TE Gronk/bulked up Lafell taking nutjobs role.
RB- hopefully Vereen gets slightly stronger,coretains speed and grabs bull by thx horns to become Lethal,3down all purpose back. Because his Receiving skills are special. And having them on the field all 3 downs like Forte,McCoy,MARSHALL FAULK is really Lethal, potentially special.

I hope all our young/fast WRs fulfill their potential. Especially KT,if he works with Olympic trainers to gain a step. He is truly good and could be even better. He has lacked coaching/training other college WRs got. He has very good catch and go suddenness. And made those game winning plays for us. Shows who Brady had confidence in. Doesn't mean others are lacking talent though!

I would love an established wr. Can't believe we let our rivals get mike williams! He would have easily preferred catching from Brady. Cuz that guy is good! But we have some young talent. Hopefully they work harder than every other WR around the NFL.

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I do not see the same upside in Thompkins as you do. I think he was a UDFA who came into camp and worked hard, and caught on to the offense quicker than the more talented Dobson and Boyce therefore he earned a lot of reps early on in the season. As time passed through his lack of elite talent showed and he started to lose his reps.


Who is the trainer you are referring to in your post?

lurker1965 said:

Edelman - punt returner anything you get from him beyond like 10 catches as WR means someone is injured. I'm not saying he sucks, I'm saying he won't be the focus.

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Huh? Julian Edelman was one of five receivers in the NFL last season to have 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards, he signed a 4-year/$17M contract this offseason. This is probably the most absurd thing I have ever read on this board, seriously, I am not even trying to be a ****.

lurker1965 said:

Edelman - punt returner anything you get from him beyond like 10 catches as WR means someone is injured. I'm not saying he sucks, I'm saying he won't be the focus.
Amendola et al. injured but overlaps so yet another undersized slot guy who is not Edelman steps up. Combined they do like 1200 yards and 20 TDs with no one guy being lights out.

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I'm pretty sure that you just said that neither Edelman nor Amendola will be a significant factor in the offense, but that somebody like Jeremy Gallon will put up numbers like 2011 Rob Gronkowski.

Is that really what you meant to say?

JMC00 said:

So you have Brady throwing for about 3200 yards and 50 TD (+whatever Vereen gets)

I don't know I think if he is gonna get 50+ TD is going to be throwing for more than 4000 yards.

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Yes, it is optimistic. With records that used to hold for 40 years at a time being broken yearly, that may happen and not be the best passing season in the league.

Brady6 said:

Huh? Julian Edelman was one of five receivers in the NFL last season to have 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards, he signed a 4-year/$17M contract this offseason. This is probably the most absurd thing I have ever read on this board, seriously, I am not even trying to be a ****.

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Every year before that has people cutting him on this board. Guess what, he was plan B last year before Amendola was hurt in game 1. That's why they paid Amendola (On the mendola) so much. He'll be plan B again. If Amendola and others are reasonably healthy the glass in front of his "Break glass in case of emergency" will remain intact.

patchick said:

I'm pretty sure that you just said that neither Edelman nor Amendola will be a significant factor in the offense, but that somebody like Jeremy Gallon will put up numbers like 2011 Rob Gronkowski.

Is that really what you meant to say?

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Um, huh? I said NO ONE goes lights out. How on Earth do you translate that as Gallon goes lights out. Do you only have 3 or 4 wide receiver for the year? divide that by 4 or 5 (they'll pick up a free agent from the CFL or something in November. Slot receivers get hurt.)

lurker1965 said:

Every year before that has people cutting him on this board. Guess what, he was plan B last year before Amendola was hurt in game 1. That's why they paid Amendola (On the mendola) so much. He'll be plan B again. If Amendola and others are reasonably healthy the glass in front of his "Break glass in case of emergency" will remain intact.

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That is actually untrue; Edelman led the team in receptions in the preseason, and had 7 receptions for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 1. They paid Amendola based on what the market commanded at the time; Edelman was part of a deeper WR class in both free agency, and a historically deep draft class of wide receivers. Edelman will be the most targeted WR on the team this season if healthy I can all but guarantee it.

The Patriots gave Edelman 4 years/$17M they gave Welker 5 years/$19M back in 2007. They valued Edelman the same way they valued Welker. Amendola was overpaid, everyone knows that including Amendola, the Patriots were handcuffed by the loss of Welker and an extremely weak class of free agents, Edelman was on crutches at the time recovering from foot surgery and a free agent himself.

Brady has had 400 completions just twice in his career so projecting that many or more seems optimistic to me for a couple reasons. 1) as much as I like the kids potential this is not Moss, Welker, gaffney, and Stallworth. While there should be a year two leap and I expect great things from Dobson there is still a lot of learning to do. 2) The pats have an offensive line that excels in run blocking and added more beef to it. Along with two pretty good backs in their contract year I expect the run/pass ratio to be closer to 50/50 based on the defense with some games being run heavy and others being pass heavy. 3) Brady is going to be 37. Like it or not no matter how well he takes care of his body there is wear and tear and things start to break down. He has a team around him that we do not need him to put the ball up 50 times a game save Brady for the real games that matter.

All of that said I expect Brady's stat line to look like 375 completions for 4200 yards and 35 TD's.
GRONK is the primary threat and a superstar weapon on the Calvin Johnson level when healthy which I think he will be 75 receptions 1100 yards 15 TD's.
Eldeman will not be the primary focus and his stats will drop 70 receptions 700 yards 4 TD's
Amendola will be healthy for 8-10 games and win one or two of them with a crazy game but provide excellent blocking and be a very valuable member of the team 50/450/2
Dobson will miss a game or two and play another couple hurt but when he is on the field will show some serious flashes 60/850/5
Lafell will fill in for Dobson 30/300/2
Vereen is in a contract year and I expect him to put up some very good numbers if he can stay healthy. 50/400/4
Leaving 40 receptions, 400 yards, and 3 TD's for Thompkins, Boyce, Hooman etc while filling in due to injury or as part of a rotation.