I think it is important to remember that Welker consistently had 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards and he was paired with Randy Moss, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and others in his career. Edelman was targeted 151 times in 2013; Welker was targeted 174 times in 2012 and 172 times in 2011. Brady threw the football the second most times in his career last season and a lower percent of those passes went to Edelman than went to Welker in any of his seasons here.
Edelman having similar stats does not mean that the rest of the offense is struggling, the football can be distributed the same was the improvements would need to come from the completion percentage of the players improving when targeted. Look at the players last season –
- Edelman – 69.53%
- Vereen – 68.11%
- Amendola – 65.06%
- Hoomanawanui – 63.15%
- Gronkowski – 58.20%
- Collie – 54.54%
- Dobson – 50%
- Boyce – 47.36%
- Thompkins – 45.71%
Outside of Edelman, Vereen, Amendola, and Hoomanawanui every player could significantly improve upon his catch ratio. That is where the improvements will come, that and eliminating targets to players like Collie, Bolden, Mulligan, and any other player that will not have a major role in this offense.
1. In his prime, Welker was much better than Edelman is.
2. Even still, plenty of us thought that targeting him so frequently was to the detriment of the overall offense once the end of season/playoffs came around.
As far as the catch ratio stat, I'm again not sure how that makes the case that you're trying to make. If anything, it just demonstrates that there isn't a ton of room for him to improve on a per-target basis in the role that he was previously in. If he's going to become a more efficient player, that will likely happen by being targeted less, but in more favorable situations.
None of this makes him a bad player, or part of the problem. He was simply the only guy who was even remotely open way too often, because the other receivers around him basically sucked. Since I'm assuming that he won't be a significantly better player in 2014 than he was in 2013, getting targeted 151 times again would more or less mean that, on 151+ passing plays, he was the most open player on the field. And since I think that he's a pretty good NFL talent who should under no circumstances ever be the best receiver on your team, that's a problem.
There's nothing abstract about this argument, by the way. Just look at the impact that Gronk's health had on Edelman's usage. In the seven games that Gronk played in, Edelman averaged 7 targets and 5 receptions per game, versus ~11.3 and ~7.8 when Gronk was hurt. When Gronk took the field, both Edelman's targets and receptions instantly dropped by about 35%. And yeah, that's a small sample size, but so is Edelman's career production.
If Edelman had averaged the target/rec numbers with Gronk healthy over a full season, he would end up with 112 targets and 80 receptions. I expect something a lot closer to that than the 2013 numbers: in fact, I expect a further decrease, simply because out of Dobson, Amendola, LaFell, and Vereen, the overall talent/health of that unit will almost certainly be greater than last year. Plus I expect another TE signing as well, and whoever is signed will offer more in the receiving game than Hooman and Mulligan could.
