Pats Picker 2014: Post Draft Early 53 Man Roster Projection

Using the http://patspicker.patsfans.com/ picker. This was my first attempt. There is going to be a lot of competition this year for spots which is great to see. I may have gone a little OL heavy.

We'll see:

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Develin, White
WR (7) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, LaFell, Slater, Boyce
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Wendell, Stork
G (3) Mankins, Halapio, Connolly
T (4) Solder, Cannon, Fleming, Vollmer
DE (5) Jones, Ninkovich, Easley, Buchanan, Smith
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Armstead, Siliga, Jones
ILB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(1) Collins
CB (5) Revis, Browner, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan <-- Green in for Browner to begin the season.
SS (3) Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
FS (2) McCourty, Chung
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken

Total players: 53
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Tough selections were down to keep an extra DE or LB? Too many interior OL? I could see Stork beating out Wendell thus freeing up one possition e.t.c

Obviously there are still a lot of UDFA to come in as well.

Is it just me or is it nice to look at the Patriots Defense and see some reasonable depth for a change? Without doing my own projections, I'm interested to see how the roster battles develop this off-season.

Very nice to see. This is without the usual UDFA making the roster as well. I left a 3rd TE off there just because any TE we seem to have as an option ATM seem pretty safte to keep on the practice squad.

I think that this is very reasonable to assume for the final roster although I'm curious to see what June 1st cuts there are as I would love to see some battles at Safety and Linebacker. I also could see us cutting Thompkins as he would seem to be losing many of his chances. I would much rather in the case of 7wr then Harrison who would at least be a little bigger which IMO is what we really need ( we shall see what Lafell does but, my hope is high with Brady throwing him the ball)

My opinion: Too many safeties, not enough LB depth. Ryan and Arrington can play Safety in a pinch. I would say Chung/Wilson are competing for one roster spot and James Morris/Cam Gordon are competing for the last LB spot.

My own (TC battles in bold):

Offense (25)
QB: Brady, Mallet, Jimmy G (3)
HB: Ridley, Vereen, White, Bolden (4)
FB: Develin (1)
WR: Edelman, Dobson, LaFell, Amendola, Slater, Boyce/Thompkins (6)
TE: Gronk, Hooman, Jones (3)
OC: Stork(1)
OG: Mankins, Kline, Halapio (3)
OT: Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Flemming (4)

Defense (25)
DE: Jones, Nink, Buchannan, Will Smith/Moore (4)
DT: Wilfork, Easley, Siliga, Armstead, Kelly/Chris Jones (5)
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Beauharnais, Morris/Gordon, Ja'Gared Davis/Chris White (6)
CB: Revis, Browner, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Justin Green/Jamea Thomas (6)
S: McCourty, Harmon, Ebner, Chung/Wilson (4)

Special Teams (3)
K: Gost
P: Allen
LS: Aiken

My thoughts on roster breakdown:

1. Would not be surprised to see Keller added in next couple of weeks.

2. Going to be tough decision between Boyce and Thompkins. I want to keep both of them, but I think there will only be one roster spot. Probably toughest positional battle in camp. Gallon seems destined to be a PS receiver year 1.

3. Wendell and Connolly are gonna have a tough time making the roster. I have them both being cut due to economics; Stork/Kline/Halapio are much cheaper than Wendell/Connolly. Plus the team seems to really like Kline (he did great filling in at LG when Mankins played LT) and Stork was a Dante pick.

4. Defensive line has a lot of competition with old vs young. Kelly and Will Smith are interesting players; both coming off major injuries in their 30s. Do the patriots keep both these guys over promising young talent?

5. It seems like there isn't a big run plugging DT outside of Wilfork, Siliga, and Kelly. Two of those 3 are coming off major injuries and are past 30. I wonder if BB would make a trade or pick up another big bodied guy who can play NT.

QB (2) Brady, Garoppolo
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, White, Develin
WR (7) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, Boyce, LaFell, Thompkins, Slater
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Connolly, Stork
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Halapio
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Fleming
DE (5) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Smith, Moore
DT (6) Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Armstead, Jones, Siliga
ILB(2) Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Mayo, Collins, Gordon
CB (4) Revis, Browner, Dennard, Arrington
SS (4) McCourty, Harmon, Chung, Wilson
FS (2) Ryan, Thomas
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Ott

Total players: 53
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I think they will move Mallett before the end of the preseason to a team that either has an injury at QB or has a QB who struggles during camp. I also expect a third TE to be added (Keller) at which time Chung or T. Wilson will be gone.

QB (3) Mallett, Garoppolo, Brady
RB (4) Ridley, White, Develin, Vereen
WR (6) Edelman, Amendola, Boyce, LaFell, Harrison, Dobson
TE (3) Watson, Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Wendell, Stork
G (3) Mankins, Halapio, Connolly
T (4) Solder, Cannon, Fleming, Vollmer
DE (4) Jones, Buchanan, Easley, Ninkovich
DT (6) Wilfork, Siliga, Jones, Armstead, Forston, Kelly
ILB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Davis, Hull, Collins
CB (5) Revis, Browner, Ryan, Arrington, Dennard
SS (2) Harmon, Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Chung
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken

Total players: 53
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Here's what I've got:

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, White, Houston, Develin
WR (7) Edelman, Dobson, Amendola, LaFell, Boyce, Thompkins, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui, Williams
C (2) Wendell, Stork
G (2) Mankins, Kline
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Smith, Buchanan
DT (6) Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Siliga, Jones, Armstead
ILB(2) Mayo, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Hightower, Collins, Hull
CB (5) Revis, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Thomas
SS (3) Harmon, Chung, Ebner
FS (1) McCourty
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken

Some explanations:
-I went very conservative with rookies making the roster but will almost certainly give up some spots to someone like Halapio down the line.
-I think Wendell stays because he was just given 4M/year this offseason. I think Connolly will be the veteran who gets cut. It seems weird keeping Kline over Halapio, but he played very well at LG last year when put in.
-My only UDFA to make the roster so far is Houston. I think White has taken Bolden's role, and Houston will fill the role that Blount left vacant.
-DJ Williams hasn't really done anything for a roster spot, but I don't feel comfortable keeping only 2 TEs when one is still recovering from injury. I'm more inclined to keep Williams over either of the UDFAs at this point because they weren't even that productive in college.
-Seeing Beauharnais and Hull as the only backup linebackers is unsettling.
-6 DTs seems a bit excessive; one of Kelly, Siliga, Jones, Armstead will likely underwhelm and get cut, but as it stands now, they're 4 the best 53 players on the team. I have similar feelings about the WR position and Amendola, Thompkins, Boyce.
-Still a mystery who will be the safety opposite McCourty. The worst case scenario could be Chung, who may not be as bad as we expect because he would be playing more of a SS role where his coverage deficiencies are less harmful.

Elijah, where is Browner?

Here's what I've got:

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, White, Develin
WR (7) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, LaFell, Boyce, Slater, Harrison
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Stork, Wendell
G (3) Mankins, Connolly, Halapio
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (5) Jones, Ninkovich, Easley, Moore, Buchanan
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Jones, Siliga, Armstead
ILB(4) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais, McCuller
OLB(2) Collins, Hull
CB (6) Revis, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Thomas
SS (2) Harmon, Ebner, Wilson*
FS (1) McCourty
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken

Wilson (or Chung, depending on which completely worthless safety you prefer) takes the Brandon Browner spot.

My assumption is that Thomas was drafted as a safety and Ryan will play substantial snaps there this season, perhaps even start.

Harrison makes it over Thompkins as a potential TE.

My UDFA du jour is McCuller. Small school guy but good metrics and college production at a position where depth is desperately needed. Replace him or Hull with a free agent as you like, though there's no one particularly inspiring available right now. Hull could also make space for one of the safeties, Bolden, or Will Smith.

Brandon Bolden is probably my most surprising cut.

One thing that jumps out at me when doing this is the lack of depth at LB. Hopefully someone there will surprise and be suitable in a backup role.

Sparetire said:

Elijah, where is Browner?

Click to expand...

Browner won't count against the initial 53-man roster because of his four game suspension. So the Patriots basically get to take 54 then cut one when Browner is ready to return.

RB (4) Houston, Ridley, Vereen, White
QB (3) Brady, Garoppolo, Mallett
OL (8) Cannon, Fleming, Halapio, Kline, Mankins, Solder, Stork, Vollmer
WR (6) Amendola, Dobson, Edelman, Gallon, LaFell, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui, Williams
DB (9) Arrington, Browner, Chung, Dennard, Harmon, McCourty, Revis, Ryan, Thomas
LB (7) Beauharnais, Collins, Gordon, Hightower, Hull, Mayo, White
DE (5) Buchanon, Jones, Moore, Ninkovitch, Smith
DT (5) Armstead, Easley, Jones, Siliga, Wilfork
K (1) Gostowski
P (1) Allen
LS (1) Ott

Sparetire said:

Elijah, where is Browner?

Click to expand...

Suspended.

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, White, Finch
WR (7) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, LaFell, Boyce, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui, Jones
C (2) Wendell, Stork
G (3) Mankins, Connolly, Halapio
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Smith
DT (6) Wilfork, Kelly, Siliga, Easley, Jones, Armstead
ILB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(1) Collins
CB (6) Revis, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Thomas
SS (3) Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
FS (2) McCourty, Chung
ST (2) Gostkowski, Allen

Total players: 53

Elijah said:

Suspended.

Click to expand...

And Gronk will probably start on PUP.

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, White, Houston, Develin
WR (7) Edelman, Dobson, LaFell, Amendola, Boyce, Thompkins, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui, Watson
C (2) Connolly, Stork
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Halapio
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Fleming
DE (6) Jones, Ninkovich, Easley, Armstead, Buchanan, Moore
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Jones, Siliga
ILB(2) Mayo, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Hightower, Collins, Fleming, Gordon
CB (5) Revis, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington
SS (2) Harmon, Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Thomas
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken

Total players: 54
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Here goes nothing....


QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
--- Cut: none

RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, White, Bolden, Develin
--- Cut: Roy Finch, Stephen Houston, Jonas Gray

WR (6) Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, Matthew Slater, Josh Boyce, K Thompkins
--- PUP: Aaron Dobson
--- Cut: Jeremy Gallon, Mark Harrison, Reggie Dunn, Derrick Johnson

TE (3) Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui, D.J. Williams
--- Cut: Asa Watson, Justin Jones

C (1) Stork
--- Cut: Ryan Wendell, Braxston Cave

G (4) Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Jon Halapio, Josh Kline
--- Cut: Chris Barker

T (4) Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming
--- Cut: Jordan Devey, R.J. Mattes

DE (4) Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dominique Easley, Michael Buchanan
--- PUP: Will Smith
--- Cut: Jake Bequette, Zach Moore

DT (4) Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Armond Armstead, Sealver Siliga
--- Cut: Chris Jones, Joe Vellano, Marcus Forston, L.T. Tuipuloto

LB(6) Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Steve Beauharnais, Josh Hull, Ja'Gared Davis
--- Cut: Taylor McCuller, Chris White, Darius Fleming, Cameron Gordon, Deonte Skinner

CB (5) Darrelle Revis, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington, Jemea Thomas
--- Suspended: Brandon Browner
--- Cut: Justin Green, Travis Hawkins, Malcolm Butler, Dax Swanson

S (5) Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Kanorris Davis, Shamiel Gary, Tavon Wilson
--- Cut: Nate Ebner, Patrick Chung

ST (3) Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Danny Aiken
--- Cut: Tyler Ott

Total players: 53
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- Brandon Browner is suspended four games, to be added later
- Aaron Dobson starts on PUP on offense
- Will Smith starts on PUP on defense
- Am certainly hopeful that Gronk doesn't start the season on PUP
- Probably need to have one less player on offense (26) and one more on defense (24); e.g., remove Bolden or Develin for another defensive lineman
- Considered going without Mallett, (two QB), but went with three for now
- Not very confident with the idea of going with only two tight ends

Final roster spots:
- DE: Buchanan vs Moore, Bequette
- DT: Armstead, Siliga vs Vellano, Chris Jones; optimistic that Tommy Kelly (and VW) are fully recovered and healthy enough to play right away
- LB: Hull, J Davis vs White, Fleming, McCuller, Gordon, Skinner
- CB: J Thomas vs Green, Hawkins, Butler, Swanson
- S: K Davis, Gary, T Wilson vs Chung, Ebner
- RB: Bolden, Develin vs Houston, Finch, Gray
- TE: Williams vs Jones, Watson
- WR: If all are healthy then it comes down to Thompkins vs Boyce when Dobson is ready to play.
- OL: Went with Connolly over Wendell to make room for the new guys. While Connolly has a much larger cap figure ($4,083,334 vs $1,625,000), represents more cap savings if cut ($1,083,334 vs $425,000), and is four years older, I just think he is a better player. I'll go with Kline over Cave and Barker inside, and Fleming over Devey and Mattes as the 4th tackle.

dales804 said:

One thing that jumps out at me when doing this is the lack of depth at LB. Hopefully someone there will surprise and be suitable in a backup role.

Click to expand...

I noticed that too, but if the Patriots are in a 4-2-5 as often or more often than a 4-3 then hopefully that will not be too much of an issue.

It seems like keeping a total of 12 players at WR and RB is too many. I'd cut that down to 10.