More Production From WR's To Make Up For TE's

We all seem to think that we will get more out our WR's to make up for our TE's. Let's use yards as a measure. I'll use rounded numbers.

2012
WR - 2700
TE - 1500
RB - 650
total - 4850

2013
WR - 2850
TE - 750
RB - 750
total - 4350

I suppose the WR's could do even more than last year. The numbers below require more from the tight ends. I don't think that it is a good idea to expect even more from our wide receivers. I am presuming that we "want" to have about the same yards as 2012, and make up for the decease in production at the tight end position.

2014
WR - 3000
TE - 1100
RB - 750
total - 4850

To me, an obvious key to success is have a 3rd TE who can produce when Gronk is out. Hooman is fine as one of the tight ends. However, Hooman and Mulligan was a failure as a TE duo. Of course, that "tight end" could be Keller or LaFell. Or perhaps, Gronk will be healthy all year (or at least in the playoffs).

Would prefer less production from Brady and more from the backs.

I am hoping Vereen and White can take some of the TE production from the RB position and that they can use Lafell in the move TE role to offset some of the loss in production there. Overall I expect less from Edelman but another good season, More from Amendola, Dobson, Boyce, Gronkowski, and Vereen, as well as some production from White.

I see a lot of projections of the starting lineup with Edelman as the #1 receiver... not sure I like him as a #1. Although he may have the most production, the #1 usually lines up outside and that's going to be Lafell and Dobson. As long as one of those guys can exceed expectations, the WR production should be where we need it. I expect Lafell to have his best season yet and Dobson to make a leap.

I love our offense with Gronk but without him, someone will need to step it up big time. Hopefully he's going to stay on the field.

CheeseMonkeys said:

I see a lot of projections of the starting lineup with Edelman as the #1 receiver... not sure I like him as a #1. Although he may have the most production, the #1 usually lines up outside and that's going to be Lafell and Dobson. As long as one of those guys can exceed expectations, the WR production should be where we need it. I expect Lafell to have his best season yet and Dobson to make a leap.

I love our offense with Gronk but without him, someone will need to step it up big time. Hopefully he's going to stay on the field.

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Don't confuse number rankings or passes caught with roles... Edelman is not the deep threat WR any more than Welker was - he's playing Welker's role - not Moss'

mgteich said:

We all seem to think that we will get more out our WR's to make up for our TE's. Let's use yards as a measure. I'll use rounded numbers.

2012
WR - 2700
TE - 1500
RB - 650
total - 4850

2013
WR - 2850
TE - 750
RB - 750
total - 4350

I suppose the WR's could do even more than last year. The numbers below require more from the tight ends. I don't think that it is a good idea to expect even more from our wide receivers. I am presuming that we "want" to have about the same yards as 2012, and make up for the decease in production at the tight end position.

2014
WR - 3000
TE - 1100
RB - 750
total - 4850

To me, an obvious key to success is have a 3rd TE who can produce when Gronk is out. Hooman is fine as one of the tight ends. However, Hooman and Mulligan was a failure as a TE duo. Of course, that "tight end" could be Keller or LaFell. Or perhaps, Gronk will be healthy all year (or at least in the playoffs).

Click to expand...

Having a 2d TE who is a receiving threat, to me, is more about the dynamism and variability of the offense than some yd comparison. If you had two tes (season-long =your 3d) who could produce 1500yds, that doesn't necessarily imply to me that the wrs are then limited to a 2700-2800 ceiling.

The synergistic effects of a TE threat can open things up and you still see the wrs getting theirs for 3k. 5k + yds in today's no-touch nfl is not that extraordinary.

You imply a scenario for over 5200 yards (TE- 1500, WR 3000, RB - 750). I am a bit more modest in my expectations.

Gumby said:

Having a 2d TE who is a receiving threat, to me, is more about the dynamism and variability of the offense than some yd comparison. If you had two tes (season-long =your 3d) who could produce 1500yds, that doesn't necessarily imply to me that the wrs are then limited to a 2700-2800 ceiling.

The synergistic effects of a TE threat can open things up and you still see the wrs getting theirs for 3k. 5k + yds in today's no-touch nfl is not that extraordinary.

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They have at least 3 rookie TEs in camp so maybe one will work out, I hope we need two IMO

Let's face it, the Pats had the huge misfortune of losing a top TE at the worst time last year. That combined with Gronk's injury history leaves the Pats short at that position and there really isn't much they can do about it. Maybe Belichick will come up with a no TE offense when Gronk isn't playing. Either that or they have someone or something else in mind.

mgteich said:

You imply a scenario for over 5200 yards (TE- 1500, WR 3000, RB - 750). I am a bit more modest in my expectations.

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6 guys (some same-guy) have thrown for +5K yds in past 3 seasons. So agreed your numbers are more 'conservative-plausible'. (I just said it wouldnt be that extraordinary anymore.)

I maybe lost my point going back down the 'yard-nbr' analogy. The point was more that I want the individual wins to be easier, because the offense is more unpredictable with two quality TEs, 3 solid wrs, and 2 good rbs as opposed to 1-4-2 or 1-3-2 (or if Gronk doesnt come back right away 0-3-2). So, I dont think you can necessarily MAKE UP the synergy of a TE with an extra WR no matter how "GOOD" or "MORE DEVELOPED" he may be. Even if you are getting JUST AS MUCH YARDAGE, you are probably WORKING TOO HARD to get it.

The yard # measurement game is (as in so many football stats)... the devil in the details and you can make the stats lie depending how you want to read them. So I just dont think it says anything to say we make up 'yards' in one category from a shortfall in another.

If you are winning games easily because you confuse the opponents D early and get out to an early comfortable lead..... your passing yard #s may not mean squat anyway.

Let Drew Brees throw for 5K, with him and his opponent both doing 90 sec drives through the 3Q/4Q. Meanwhile TB hands off to RBs in the 4th Q and his opponent just tries to make it out the breezeway as quickly as possible and hit the showers. I'd rather see them win a bunch of 21-3 games with demoralized opponents than 49-45 back-forth gut-wrenchers for both sides that rack up the 'glory yards'.

So, bottom line; who from any of those WRs (or scrub TEs) could provide that TE-like "capability" (move TE) or (physical red-zone/1D-marker presence)?
Although Dobson and one or two other guys have some height - I dont think they give that TE-like threat. I always liked Hoo-man's attitude, but he never seemed to progress and just disappeared in games after seeming to make a little progress once or twice. That new 6-8 guy (J Jones) could be interesting (if he doesnt turn into another PS-trainee destined for another teams roster). I'm still expecting to see BB look to a cut-down /salary-cap vet player to compete (although I would much rather have some youth pop up and make a statement, you cant count on that much).

I expect absolutely nothing more from the WRs than was provided last season.

Odd considering you now have three sophomore receivers entering the season.

The WR corp should be significantly better than a majority of last year just because Thompkins, Boyce, and Dobson are no longer rookies and won't have those rookie growing pains (assuming they all make the roster), Amendola will be healthy (he may or may not be healthy all year, but odds are he won't have an injury week one that will hamper his production all year like last year), and LaFell is an upgrade to the corp. It may not translate into statistics, but I think the WRs will be much better than last year.

Personally, I think people are way too preoccupied with the offense. I will take last year's offense if the defense can be much improved. The Seahawks' offense was significantly worse than the Pats' and they won on defense (although a great defense). Baltimore's offense was mediocre the year before and even when Flacco got hot in the playoffs, it was a good, not great offense. The Giants the year before that was an above average offense, but arguably not as good as the Pats' last year's offense. You have a good enough defense and Brady, the receiving options aren't nearly as important in a Super Bowl formula.

JackBauer said:

Odd considering you now have three sophomore receivers entering the season.

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I would expect nothing less from him. In his world the Patriots have been 0-16 for the past 13 seasons.

mgteich said:

We all seem to think that we will get more out our WR's to make up for our TE's. Let's use yards as a measure. I'll use rounded numbers.

2012
WR - 2700
TE - 1500
RB - 650
total - 4850

2013
WR - 2850
TE - 750
RB - 750
total - 4350

I suppose the WR's could do even more than last year. The numbers below require more from the tight ends. I don't think that it is a good idea to expect even more from our wide receivers. I am presuming that we "want" to have about the same yards as 2012, and make up for the decease in production at the tight end position.

2014
WR - 3000
TE - 1100
RB - 750
total - 4850

To me, an obvious key to success is have a 3rd TE who can produce when Gronk is out. Hooman is fine as one of the tight ends. However, Hooman and Mulligan was a failure as a TE duo. Of course, that "tight end" could be Keller or LaFell. Or perhaps, Gronk will be healthy all year (or at least in the playoffs).

Click to expand...

Interesting numbers for 2012 and 2013. With Gronkowski coming back from ACL surgery, it would be nice to get 1,000 yards out of the TE position, but I think it will be more like the 750 yards we saw last year since Gronk's the only threat as a receiver there. Gronk's injury history suggests they use him in traditional ways, not so much downfield. I would expect Brady to put up right around 4,000 yards through the air, with more production on the ground to attack pass protection.

Last season, we saw some pretty impressive production on the ground against pass protection, and I think the pendulum is staring to swing back the other way. I loved Blount. But he was not a pass catching threat at all, nor was he able to pick up a blitz. Shane Vereen and R James White are multi-faceted in the run or pass game, and the talk of BJGE coming back in a situational role looks right to me as well. A backfield of Ridley, Vereen, White, Law Firm and Develin looks great. (Bolden is the odd man out.) All can block and each brings a different expertise and look.

That's okay since the WR grouping is deeper, and bigger, this coming season with Lafell added to the mix of Dobson, Amendola, Edelman, Boyce and Mark Harrison. (I don't think Thompkins and Gallon make the 53, but I could be wrong about that.)

Essentially, the Patriots go three deep at the slot position and three deep at the wideout position, with all three wideouts being big and tough enough to to battle corners for the ball. This group of guys gives me a lot of confidence that McDaniels and Brady will have lots of situational options to attack opponents through the air.

Look for increased production out of the backfield - rushing and receiving.

JackBauer said:

Odd considering you now have three sophomore receivers entering the season.

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One year older might not = one year better.

Gumby said:

So, bottom line; who from any of those WRs (or scrub TEs) could provide that TE-like "capability" (move TE) or (physical red-zone/1D-marker presence)?
Although Dobson and one or two other guys have some height - I dont think they give that TE-like threat. I always liked Hoo-man's attitude, but he never seemed to progress and just disappeared in games after seeming to make a little progress once or twice. That new 6-8 guy (J Jones) could be interesting (if he doesnt turn into another PS-trainee destined for another teams roster). I'm still expecting to see BB look to a cut-down /salary-cap vet player to compete (although I would much rather have some youth pop up and make a statement, you cant count on that much).

Click to expand...

The only one i can see running move TE routes is LaFell, who is considered to be an outstanding blocker and who has good size 6'2 210 but clearly doesn't have TE size. TE was my biggest priority going into the draft and i was bummed when they didn't geet one but I understand their thinking if they thought they were being overdrafted out of need. Hopefully they can get Keller after 6/1.

Lafell is going to be a bigger pick up than some of you think. He's capable of getting 900 yards with brady throwing it to him.

The three sophomore WRs have to get better, especially dobson.

Edelman will get 900 to 1000 yards.

Amendola is capable of getting 700-800 yards if he manages to stay on the field.

In short, the offense will be lethal. This time we have a defense to go along with it.

TommyBrady12 said:

Lafell is going to be a bigger pick up than some of you think. He's capable of getting 900 yards with brady throwing it to him.

The three sophomore WRs have to get better, especially dobson.

Edelman will get 900 to 1000 yards.

Amendola is capable of getting 700-800 yards if he manages to stay on the field.

In short, the offense will be lethal. This time we have a defense to go along with it.

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Numbers are always hard to project but those are baselines most wouldn't disagree to much with. I don't expect the offense to go back to being centered around a couple of receivers, as it was in the Moss and Welker years but I think it will be much more balanced and the open guy will be Brady's favorite receiver, as it was during the dynasty seasons. they will probably be top 3 in points and I won't be surprised if they lead the league in points against. This should be an exceptional team.

captain stone said:

One year older might not = one year better.

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There's a vast difference between one's expectation of future events and simply acknowledging what might or might not happen. It's certainly possible that none of Thompkins, Dobson, or Boyce will progress, but the odds of that happening are slim.