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Idle thoughts - the day after editiion


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Let's agree on your arithmetic.

1) Almost 1/2 the time (46%) we will need 3 linebackers (40% base plus 6% sub).

2) We have no "true" backup LB's on the squad (unless someone believes in Beuaharnais).

3) Unless you are counting on Ninkovich, we need a LB or 2 to come off the bench. Collins and Fletcher got lost of reps last year. We have lost Spikes and Fletcher. We've brought in Hull. We will need another addition or two.

4) I expect us to carry 5 LB's.

But lets clarify one thing. The need for snaps from Collins and Fletcher only happened because of injury, and even then they didn't play a ton, until Collins showed he was ready and took playing time.
If the LBs had been 100% healthy reserves would have gotten almost no playing time, other than the role Collins earned by being better than Spikes in many way.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about injuries, but at full health the 4th LB will be a ghostman and even with one injury we wouldn't see an awful lot of him.

That said, we need LB depth.
 
Really great post. Enjoyed reading it a lot. Going to be some very good camp battles!!!



What is a BB draft without a few WTF moments. I guess we should be used to it by now. But its still always painful to watch, even when the end results have been so consistently good over the years. So for what it's worth here are my draft thoughts now that THIS part of the team building process is over.

1. For now I'm going to let BB's selections stand on their own merits. What I find interesting is what they tell us about what he thinks of his team and where it needs help.

a, The lack of serious picks at WR and DB's tells me he's happier with what he has at the WR and Safety spots than many here are. Don't sleep on Nate Ebner. He has all the measurables to be the so called SS everyone here seems to be demanding. Remember this is really only his 3rd season playing the position. Perhaps BB is happy with his development.

b. One can easily infer that all the picks on the OL could mean that he's not as happy with his OL situation as I thought he was. All those picks COULD mean that he's worried about Volmer's recovery from his ankle break. He isn't really thrilled about the prospect of a Connolly/Wendell RG/C combination. But then again who is. ;)

c. The thing that struck me the most of those picks were that ALL these guys are BIG. In the past the Pats have prospered using relatively undersized, athletic OLmen. I have to wonder if drafting all this strength and size signals a departure from this strategy. Are me moving on, not only from Dante, but his philosophy? Are we now going from a "zone blocking" team to a more "power blocking" team?

d. At any rate TC will be more interesting this season. The OL competition is going to be fierce. I only can hope that in this TC, the OL will practice closer to the stands so we can actually get to see what's going on.

e The lack of a LB is also telling. On the surface it seems like we are pretty much lacking in LB depth. This might tell us how BB feels about the LB position in general, More and more it seems like the LB position is becoming devalued as defenses focus more on the DL and DB's configurations.

Back in the 3-4 days, BB would routinely carry 9 LBs on his roster, sometimes even 10. Now he might not even carry 6, if you don't count guys like Ninko. I mean how often are the Pat going to have 3 LB's on the field. The fact is that they are going to be in a "sub package" over 60% of the time, and in 90% of those "sub packages" only 2 LB's are going to be on the field. For that reason I won't be a bit surprise if the Pats end up carrying only 5 "true" LB's on their final 53 man roster. And that COULD be the reason the Pats didn't draft any LB's

2. Why no TE. If there was ONE universally agreed upon fact from both the media and the fans was that the Pats should take a TE in the first 3 rounds. Well 7 rounds have gone by and we still haven't added one. Why? Here are a couple of suppositions

a. He didn't like the players who were available to him at the time

b. He had a player that he wanted, but he was gone. Of the top 5 TE's only CJ Fedorowicz was available when the Pats chose at #62, and he was gone 3 picks later. Perhaps BB felt that the TE's who were left weren't any better than Hooman or DJ Williams

c. Maybe the speculation that the 2 TE phenomenon was more of a BOB thing than a Josh thing is right, and the Pats will use more 3 WR sets this year as a base so there is no need to carry 4 TE's.

d. They really like Mark Harrison to fill that "move TE role"

e. Gronk's health issues are being overstated

f. Keller will soon be a Patriot

g. Any and all of those things could be facts that led to us not drafting a TE

3. While this draft might not be filled with Fantasy Football future All Stars, the Pats first pick could very well be the single most impactful defensive player the Pats have drafted in years. Here's why I think this.

a. The single biggest threat to today's complex and prolific passing offenses is the threat of an effective interior pass rush. A heavy push up the middle disrupts timing and forces QB's to make short quick less accurate throws. It gets the QB "off his spot" and forces him into your outside rush.

b. The problem is that finding players who have that that skill set is rare. So rare that an undersized, short armed, DT from Pittsburgh was the 13th overall pick in the draft.

c. Now what has me so jacked up about this pick is the more that I read about Easly the more it becomes apparent that he has the potential to be the BEST interior rusher in this draft. Even better than Donald.

d. Easly has a skill set that the Pats haven't had in the entire BB era. I think he will be a dynamic presence in the Pats defense from the first game one.

e. And yes I am aware that he might be a liability in the run game, but only if you expect him to be effective 2 gaping or against double teams. A great coach plays to a player's strengths and doesn't ask him to do what he obviously can't. Fortunately that's one of BB's strengths, so I don't worry about Easly's lack of size that much. I trust that BB will only put him in positions to succeed.

4, Easly was the good news, now for the bad. I'm sorry, but even a day later, I CANNOT justify the Garapollo pick. Unless Brady has informed the Pats that he's only going to play 2 more years, it can't be justified. All I know is that the Pats picked a guy with the 62nd pick who isn't going to take a significant snap for them until the 2017 season.....and that's the best case scenario.

Even if the kid turns out to be the 2nd coming of Aaron Rogers, it doesn't make sense today, tomorrow or for the next 3 years. There were just so many solid prospects out there who could have contributed immediately and be potential starters with a couple of years. With that pick we could have take Fiedorowicz TE, Marcus Martin C, Crichton DE, etc. Even a WR at that spot would have been preferable IMHO ( and you all know how I feel about WR's in this draft ;) ). So instead of a player who might actually play a few significant snaps before 2017, we get a guy who most significant contribution the next 3 years will be to play the "athletic QB" on scout teams, and to bring Brady is coffee for the QB meetings. :rolleyes:

Christ if they felt the need to pick a QB this year, they could have had their choice of some great ones much later on. Logan Thomas would have made much more sense because he probably needs 3 years to develop and in the meantime he could have at least played on ST's or become a TE.

This pick might make just a LITTLE sense if the Pats somehow trade Mallett for a 2015 pick before the season starts. But as of now it makes no sense at all, even on a roster basis. We now need an extra roster space for a QB, which means its likely that one of the offensive linemen we drafted will be cut because we will only be able to carry 8 OLmen instead of the 9 we'd carry if we only had 2 QB's on the 53 man roster.

5. As for the rest of the draft, who knows. We have gotten some very good value at the bottom of the roster recently, But as of this moment, they are all just camp fodder until proven differently. I will be surprised if more than 4 of these picks make the 53 man roster. I only expect 2 to eventually be full time starters (Easly and Stork) by the 2015 season.

BOTTOM LINE - My excitement about Easly can't overcome the lack of an addition of a significant other pick in this draft. Beyond my HOPE that Stork can become the starting C in another year, I really doubt that any of the rest of these picks will ever be more than back up players on this team. Grade C-

BTW- The draft is one one aspect of the team building process, and while, except for Easly, this draft was a big disappointment, I remain EXTREMELY excited and optimistic about the 2014 version of our New England Patriots
 
We are in 100% agreement.

The #4 LB and #5 LB would have almost ZERO reps, except as special teamers, if there were no injuries.

But lets clarify one thing. The need for snaps from Collins and Fletcher only happened because of injury, and even then they didn't play a ton, until Collins showed he was ready and took playing time.
If the LBs had been 100% healthy reserves would have gotten almost no playing time, other than the role Collins earned by being better than Spikes in many way.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about injuries, but at full health the 4th LB will be a ghostman and even with one injury we wouldn't see an awful lot of him.

That said, we need LB depth.
 
I don't get why the QB pick confuses people and is being disagreed with.

It really is simple logic.

We need to know who Brady's successor is..or at least that they have our future in mind. This pick solidifies that. No one is mocking the Packers for picking Aaron Rodgers when they did anymore...

Some people don't share your exact taste for risk management. Some people don't share your assessment of the risks inherent in not drafting this QB. Some did the calculation (like the OP) and would've rather run the risk of not having JG and instead getting one of the available non-QB. That's all stuff that is matter of opinion and is why people disagree with the pick. There's not 1 obvious right answer as you are suggesting.

As far as your latter point, all this solidifies is that they drafted a guy. No one has any idea if he can play. Your Aaron Rodgers comparison is fully optimistic. JG could be (much) more like Mallett or Kevin O'Connell and maybe we'll look back on the use of the draft capital expended to get him as a waste that could've otherwise gone to getting deeper at a different position and therefore making better use of the golden years of Brady.
 
If Belichick thought like some fans here 2001 would not have produced a Super Bowl.

I mean we had the great Drew Bledsoe in 2000 and the about to be great if needed Michael Bishop.
 
If Belichick thought like some fans here 2001 would not have produced a Super Bowl.

I mean we had the great Drew Bledsoe in 2000 and the about to be great if needed Michael Bishop.

Come on, Icy. Be better than that.

2nd round pick v. compensatory 6th round pick. The Brady draft actually undercuts the "Drafting the kid in round 2 is the right call" argument.

Hell, Cassel (7th round) and Hoyer (UDFA) v. O'Connell (3rd) and Mallett (3rd) do that, too.
 
2nd round pick v. compensatory 6th round pick.

Passing on him so many times, given how much they purportedly liked him, until they felt forced to pick him because of the value, speaks mostly to sheer luck in getting him.

The biggest credit for Brady is not in drafting him, but in realizing what they had and keeping 4 QB's to ensure he wasn't snatched up.
 
Come on, Icy. Be better than that.

2nd round pick v. compensatory 6th round pick. The Brady draft actually undercuts the "Drafting the kid in round 2 is the right call" argument.

Hell, Cassel (7th round) and Hoyer (UDFA) v. O'Connell (3rd) and Mallett (3rd) do that, too.

Sorry but it's not prudent to build a multi million dollar machine that clearly revolves around an aged bolt. I think the pick was very wise and prudent. I think Belichick will have several good veteran FA options available to him this summer when teams cut to rebuild. How about those possible cuts will have greater 2014 season effect than anything he saw in the draft. I was not enamored with any of the TE's beyond the top 2 and the WR options were not much better either at pick #62 ... at least none that would prove useful in 2014.

If there was a pick at #62 who would have definitely made an impact this year I'm sure he would have made it ... not like he's suddenly become soft as a grape. The problem in this and all forums is everyone bases their thoughts on what they know and there is much they don't know going forward ... every year the plan is altered which is a huge part of the reason we are successful year after year ... a rolling stone gathers no moss.
 
Sorry but it's not prudent to build a multi million dollar machine that clearly revolves around an aged bolt. I think the pick was very wise and prudent. I think Belichick will have several good veteran FA options available to him this summer when teams cut to rebuild. How about those possible cuts will have greater 2014 season effect than anything he saw in the draft. I was not enamored with any of the TE's beyond the top 2 and the WR options were not much better either at pick #62 ... at least none that would prove useful in 2014.

If there was a pick at #62 who would have definitely made an impact this year I'm sure he would have made it ... not like he's suddenly become soft as a grape. The problem in this and all forums is everyone bases their thoughts on what they know and there is much they don't know going forward ... every year the plan is altered which is a huge part of the reason we are successful year after year ... a rolling stone gathers no moss.

My point was that the argument you made was really terrible. As I pointed out, your own argument killed your argument. I've mostly avoided talking about the actual pick. It's a waste of time around here, just at discussing Easley around here is a waste of time.
 
So a pick at the most important position is a waste and yet it would be fine had it been a backup TE instead? Or someone to battle for the 4th-5th WR slot? I find this logic stunning. I think the problem is that fans are looking at the draft to get guys to come into camp and hopefully be good enough to beat out some of the starters. But nobody is going to beat out Brady so the pick is seen as worthless.

BB said it himself, he doesn't want to lose one player and end up as a 1 win team.

As for Ken's (OP) contention re: QB that there were some 'great ones' to be had later on in the draft, I guess time will tell but if they were that great they probably would have been drafted higher. BB saw the one he wanted and he took him.

I know jack squat about any of these guys but I have no problem at the QB position being drafted at #62.
 
I think the problem is that fans are looking at the draft to get guys to come into camp and hopefully be good enough to beat out some of the starters.

When you really look at the players Belichick drafts, he's not counting on them being first year starters to get a contribution from them. Easley and Storts are both great examples. Both players are experienced at multiple positions on their respective lines and, therefore should be able to step in and provide rotational depth as rookies. Depth at multiple positions is a significant contribution. If they end up earning their way into the starting lineup, that's a bonus.

I would say that Belichick views a first year starter as the exception rather than the rule and certainly not something he's counting on when he calculates the short term value of a draft pick.
 
I consider the backup QB position to having health insurance. You hope that you never need to use it, but if something happens and you need it then you better have good coverage. I can certainly understand the posters who do not like the 2nd round pick and wish BB chose another player at a position of 'need'. I am sure there will be players picked in the early 3rd round who will turn out to be great players and many of us may wish BB chose them instead. There will also be players picked in the early 3rd round that many of us wish BB had chosen that will turn out to be busts.

I am not sold on Garoppolo being the next Rodgers or being the heir apparent to Brady. Brady could end up playing at a high level into his 40s and Garoppolo doesn't develop into the player BB hopes for. We may be having this same discussion about a backup QB getting picked in the early rounds of the draft again a few years from now. The truth is that nobody can really predict how well a college QB will develop into a NFL caliber QB, let alone a 'franchise' QB. However, statistically there is a better chance for a QB picked early in the draft. BB seems to value the backup QB position and believes that he needs to invest in that position. I would rather that BB use a late 2nd round draft pick than spend more $$ for a vet backup QB who might be an NFL caliber backup QB, but has almost no chance of developing into a 'franchise' QB. I personally would also rather BB use an early draft pick than hope to find a decent QB in the late rounds.

I personally have never understood all the talk about trading Mallett for a high level draft pick. I would have been happy if it happened, but always felt like it was just wishful thinking. We need a backup QB who understands the system. I would not want us to go into the season with just Brady and a rookie. I think it likely that we keep 3 QB this year. I also think it is very possible that Mallett leaves at the end of the year without any trade or other kind of compensation back to the Patriots. Many will then consider that Mallett was a wasted draft pick. I personally will not consider it a wasted draft pick because we needed a backup QB and Mallett filled that position.
 
What if Brady doesn't go into a steep decline, but when Brady does retire this guy become the next best QB in the league, is it still a wasted pick?

It's because, in all likelihood, it was a wasted pick unless Brady goes into steep decline, and there were quality players, at need positions, on the board at the time.
 
What if Brady doesn't go into a steep decline, but when Brady does retire this guy become the next best QB in the league, is it still a wasted pick?

If Brady doesn't go into a steep decline, he'll probably be around longer this this kid. So, yeah, probably. That's why I wrote "in all likelihood" in my post
 
The large number of injuries is more a function of the violence of football than anything else. It is almost inevitable that Brady could again be added to that list. Having depth and contingency plans makes the team better. Getting younger overall tends to reduce the injury risk. More than finding starters to surround Brady, this draft was about getting younger backups and role player who, developmentally, will be groomed to step in if needed. A winning team can better afford such patience. The Patriots are the worst place for Garropalo to go in terms of expected playing time from his perspective but he is one of the best kind of depth players for a team like the Patriots. This is probably more important than drafting a tight end, purely from a need perspective, where talent at that position isn't as strong as in other years. Perhaps they will better address that need in the next draft.


This is my thinking too. I would be surprised if we did not end up with three QB's on the 53. Should Garrapalo pan out, Mallett will be free to go, but if not, then I'm sure we'll see some type of effort to resign Mallett.
 
LB and RB.......Other teams' roster cuts will fill the voids at these positions. No doubt BB has trust issues for both Ridley and Bolden and Belichick always like to have a big back vet on the roster. Teams that drafted their future at RB always purge the pricier vets....so talent will become available. The same can be said at ILB as $$$$ and age tend to force the issue for teams.
 
There is no indication of Brady declining, he's always in good shape and is a responsible professional, taking good care of himself. I'm pretty sure when Brady feels he lost a step he will be the first to indicate that to BB.

We have a qualified backup under contract, that need should have been addressed next draft. In a draft this deep we should have addressed some of the glaring needs we have.

In the event of Brady retiring I'm ok with a couple seasons of adjustments, that includes better draft position, drafting always in the bottom 4 is difficult. There will be other veterans getting up there in age at the same time, this franchise will need a total rebuild when that happens, but that's future.
 
I don't see Brady going into steep decline anytime soon, but the risk of injury as you get to 38 and 39 is more of a concern to me. I have no problem with the choice, it's a guy they wanted.
 
e The lack of a LB is also telling. On the surface it seems like we are pretty much lacking in LB depth. This might tell us how BB feels about the LB position in general, More and more it seems like the LB position is becoming devalued as defenses focus more on the DL and DB's configurations.

Or he thinks Beauharnais might be ready to be the #4 LB and the other backup LB will be a camp battle or maybe someone becomes available to pushed Beauharanais down to the #5 LB
 
We needed a QB for 2015.
SOLUTION
Belichick chose to be one year ahead, as is usually the case. He chose our 2015-2017 quarterback this year. And just BTW, the solution to the roster spot problem is move Mallett. With Garrapolo, we need carry only 2 quarterbacks.

I love how the JAG fans take as a given that this one draft pick is THE guy absolutely guaranteed to pick up the offense SO fast that unlike 2000 Tom Brady, JAG can be relied upon to be the one and only backup.
 
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