Future of Logan Mankins as a Patriot

NE_PATS_FAN_54 · May 6, 2014

This is a topic I've been pondering for a little bit and was amplified when I read Greg Bedard's mock draft on MMQB:
2014 NFL Mock Draft: What teams should do in the first round | MMQB | Greg A. Bedard

29. New England: Xavier Su’a Filo, OL, UCLA
The Patriots need some size and youth on the interior of the OL, and with a possible contract issue with Logan Mankins coming next offseason, the Patriots always plan ahead.

Bedard is usually ahead of the curve on things like this so seeing this comment made my wonder: are the Pats going to put Mankins in the same boat as Wilfork next offseason? Obviously Wilfork's situation was complicated because of his achilles injury last year but there was no way they were going to pay Vince even if he finished last year healthy. A very similar situation is looking to play out with Mankins and the team during the 2015 offseason. See below for Miguel's breakdown of Mankins' deal:
Miguel's Unofficial Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page - Logan Mankins - PatsCap.com

Based on Miguel's numbers, it seems as though the Pats stand to gain $7M in cap space in 2015 if they cut Mankins (with him counting $4M against the 2015 cap and nothing against the 2016 cap). Mankins will be 33 years old going into the 2015 season and by my view, hasn't shown significant signs of slowing down. The question will be: do the Patriots view Mankins as an $11M player next year? The rumors are, of course, that the cap will rise beginning next year so that may make the decision a little easier. However, the Pats have a significant of their core players that could hit FA in 2015: (McCourty, Slater, Revis, Gostkowski, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon, etc).

Mankins health and level of play during 2014 will most likely be the determining factor going forward. I would think given Mankins contract history that he will not be receptive to a re-negotiation but a lot can obviously change. Going into Thursday's draft, it will be awfully interesting to see how high the Pats go to draft an OL. As Bedard mentions, the Pats always plan ahead and OL is a position that they haven't invested much draft capital into in the past few years.

Brady6 · May 6, 2014

NE_PATS_FAN_54 said:
This is a topic I've been pondering for a little bit and was amplified when I read Greg Bedard's mock draft on MMQB:
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/06/nfl-mock-draft-what-teams-should-do/

Bedard is usually ahead of the curve on things like this so seeing this comment made my wonder: are the Pats going to put Mankins in the same boat as Wilfork next offseason? Obviously Wilfork's situation was complicated because of his achilles injury last year but there was no way they were going to pay Vince even if he finished last year healthy. A very similar situation is looking to play out with Mankins and the team during the 2015 offseason. See below for Miguel's breakdown of Mankins' deal:
http://patscap.com/mankins.html#mankins

Based on Miguel's numbers, it seems as though the Pats stand to gain $7M in cap space in 2015 if they cut Mankins (with him counting $4M against the 2015 cap and nothing against the 2016 cap). Mankins will be 33 years old going into the 2015 season and by my view, hasn't shown significant signs of slowing down. The question will be: do the Patriots view Mankins as an $11M player next year? The rumors are, of course, that the cap will rise beginning next year so that may make the decision a little easier. However, the Pats have a significant of their core players that could hit FA in 2015: (McCourty, Slater, Revis, Gostkowski, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon, etc).

Mankins health and level of play during 2014 will most likely be the determining factor going forward. I would think given Mankins contract history that he will not be receptive to a re-negotiation but a lot can obviously change. Going into Thursday's draft, it will be awfully interesting to see how high the Pats go to draft an OL. As Bedard mentions, the Pats always plan ahead and OL is a position that they haven't invested much draft capital into in the past few years.

Personally, I think Mankins is going to have the best season since 2010 this season. He is healthy and not rehabbing during the offseason for the first time in years. He turned 32 a few months ago so he should have 3 seasons left in him assuming good health. I see a Wilfork type contract extension in his future.

james87654 · May 6, 2014

I think it could go either way depending on how he plays going forward. BB obviously likes mankins' understated toughness and sees him as a good leader for the OL. I usually love Bedard but he had a column recently advocating for a 16 team playoff that I think is the dumbest thing i have ever heard. The great thing about the NFL is that it isn't the NBA and the regular season games actually matter.

borg · May 6, 2014

Hell of a contract Mankins signed. Big money and likely to see all of it....that is a rarity. Shows us who had leverage during that negotiation.

ripatsfan91 · May 6, 2014

Maybe an extension before next season to spread out that 11 mil against the cap?

Gwedd · May 6, 2014

Personally, I see Mankins agreeing to an extension, then retiring at the end of it as a Patriot. He'll get all his money and be able to go off to his ranch and spend time doing whatever he wants for the rest of his life. I view it as a win/win situation, barring any untoward ocurence, such as a severe injury, etc.

chasa · May 6, 2014

add 2 years, convert next years base into a bonus, make the 2 added years low base line with high roster bonuses.

Spiral · May 6, 2014

See: Wilfork, Vince

Mankins is not going to get $7M in 2015. Not from the Patriots, and not from anyone else.

varjao · May 6, 2014

Last year his performance was affected by the atrocious center playing on his side. I still see Mankins as a vital piece in this line, you can't switch everything in one or two years.

Center is the priority, and then guard, other than Mankins. Tackle deserves a look, but Vollmer signed a new deal last year and Solder will likely stay for his big contract.

Extension is the word and I think it's good for both sides.

Ring 6 · May 6, 2014

Spiral said:
See: Wilfork, Vince

Mankins is not going to get $7M in 2015. Not from the Patriots, and not from anyone else.

Because its so much more than the 6.5mill he is getting this year?
Are you predicting Mankins blows out his Achilles? Otherwise what does Wilfork have to do with this?

Spiral · May 6, 2014

AndyJohnson said:
Because its so much more than the 6.5mill he is getting this year?
Are you predicting Mankins blows out his Achilles? Otherwise what does Wilfork have to do with this?

Nothing to do with his Achilles. There would be a net cap hit to cut him this year, with $8M of unamortized signing bonus. Not true next year, just like for Wilfork in 2014. They will tell him to see what his market value is, and negotiate with him after his agent calls around. Just like with Vince. Or he calls the Patriots' bluff and they cut him, resulting in his signing to play somewhere else in 2015. Either way, he's not making $7M in 2015.

Deus Irae · May 6, 2014

Spiral said:
Nothing to do with his Achilles. There would be a net cap hit to cut him this year, with $8M of unamortized signing bonus. Not true next year, just like for Wilfork in 2014. They will tell him to see what his market value is, and negotiate with him after his agent calls around. Just like with Vince. Or he calls the Patriots' bluff and they cut him, resulting in his signing to play somewhere else in 2015. Either way, he's not making $7M in 2015.

If he plays at the level he's been playing, he'll get his $7 million, either in NE or somewhere else.

mgteich · May 6, 2014

Spiral said:
Nothing to do with his Achilles. There would be a net cap hit to cut him this year, with $8M of unamortized signing bonus. Not true next year, just like for Wilfork in 2014. They will tell him to see what his market value is, and negotiate with him after his agent calls around. Just like with Vince. Or he calls the Patriots' bluff and they cut him, resulting in his signing to play somewhere else in 2015. Either way, he's not making $7M in 2015.

We would save 2014 cap money by cutting Mankins in 2014 and replacing him by a 1st rounder. More importantly, we would avoid giving him $6M of new money for 2014 services.

The team has decided that Mankins is worth $6M for his 2014 services. After the season, they will need to decide whether Mankins is worth $7M of new money next year, whether is salary or spread out.

If we draft a LG who has played LT in the 1st or early second, it seems likely that Mankins might leave unless he has a great season.

Jackson 2 · May 6, 2014

Bedard has his moments, but I'll never forget him going on the radio last June after Hernandez was arrested saying Ahern is " a good kid at heart"...

Spiral · May 6, 2014

mgteich said:
We would save 2014 cap money by cutting Mankins in 2014 and replacing him by a 1st rounder. More importantly, we would avoid giving him $6M of new money for 2014 services.

The team has decided that Mankins is worth $6M for his 2014 services. After the season, they will need to decide whether Mankins is worth $7M of new money next year, whether is salary or spread out.

If we draft a LG who has played LT in the 1st or early second, it seems likely that Mankins might leave unless he has a great season.

I agree with your points, except that I'm not sure if they would save 2014 cap money if they cut him--it would probably depend on when, since the total bonus proration is greater than his 2014 salary. Moot issue for this year, IMO.

My concern with Mankins is that the last game of the season often ends up being his worst. I don't expect that to change as he gets older.

Mack Herron · May 6, 2014

Field Yates ‏@FieldYates

From @MikeReiss & I: Patriots hosted FA G Davin Joseph on a visit, per sources.
Former Bucs G is a 2x Pro Bowler, has started 97 games.

Ring 6 · May 6, 2014

Spiral said:
Nothing to do with his Achilles. There would be a net cap hit to cut him this year, with $8M of unamortized signing bonus. Not true next year, just like for Wilfork in 2014. They will tell him to see what his market value is, and negotiate with him after his agent calls around. Just like with Vince. Or he calls the Patriots' bluff and they cut him, resulting in his signing to play somewhere else in 2015. Either way, he's not making $7M in 2015.

Then you cannot compare him to VW whose contract this season was because of the injury and risk coming from it.
Also, where do you get a cap hit to cut him now? 10.5 to keep, 8 to cut, means there would be a cap savings. If you are worried about cap cutting him now and saving 2.5 this year then 7 mill next year is better than paying him 11 mill this year them saving 7 next.
Finally, the decision does not include sunk money so you save 6.5 this year or 7 next, hardly a difference worth cutting a probowl caliber player over.

Ring 6 · May 6, 2014

Spiral said:
I agree with your points, except that I'm not sure if they would save 2014 cap money if they cut him--it would probably depend on when, since the total bonus proration is greater than his 2014 salary. Moot issue for this year, IMO.

My concern with Mankins is that the last game of the season often ends up being his worst. I don't expect that to change as he gets older.

Your calculation wrong. The saving is the cap hit minus the cost to keep.
You cant compare the sb to the salary, it doesn't work that way.
Hit to keep 10.5
Hit to cut 8

Savings by cutting 2.5

Simple as that.

mgteich · May 6, 2014

Mack Herron said:
Field Yates ‏@FieldYates
From @MikeReiss & I: Patriots hosted FA G Davin Joseph on a visit, per sources.
Former Bucs G is a 2x Pro Bowler, has started 97 games.

And a fine RG he is. Joseph would be a fine upgrade to Connolly at RG.

Deus Irae · May 6, 2014

mgteich said:
And a fine RG he is. Joseph would be a fine upgrade to Connolly at RG.

Torn Patellar tendon in 2012. Bad year in 2013.

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