How has your thinking changed?

I originally expected us to trade out of the first, I don't think that will happen anymore.

I think we're in a great position regardless of how the board shakes out. If there's a run on all of the good WRs, we have a shot at some of the best LB, DT, DEs and interior OL.

If there's a run on DT, DE, LB and OL then we have a shot at a potentially franchise WR.

I could see us trading our second rounder, though. I expect a pretty big run on talent to happen in between our 1st and 2nd picks. I also expect another team to want to impulsively jump back into the end of the 2nd and giving us a good deal.

At first I wasn't happy with an OL potentially being our 1st round pick but I have to say it's grown on me quite a bit.

patchick said:

Binkies come, binkies go...over the course of the draft lead up, what opinions have you adjusted? Here's one for me:

I now expect no TE until day three, but a WR earlier. You can only draft the players who are there, and the talent difference between the WR and TE classes is enormous.

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Coleman, day 2. Blanchflower, day 3.

How has my thinking changed?

1) LB is more likely as one of the first two picks.

2) TE is pretty much off the board at 29, especially if we sign Keller.

3) WR is very possible at 29, or with a bit of a trade up (for Beckham).

4) We might actually draft a DE with one of our top two picks.

5) Quarterback is possible at 29 (or a bit lower with a trade down).

This is from http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ds/the-2014-mock-draft-thread.1034735/page-39 post #780 Feb 19.

Alright, for the sake of starting discussion, I'll play along. I'm going with a more plausible Houston trade. Let's say they give us #65 instead of #33. Why not? I also used Craig Turner's comp pick projections to put the picks about where they should be # wise.

1. #29-Trent Murphy, Stanford DE/OLB 6-6 261
Nink and Jones can't play every snap. 15 sacks last year
2. #62-Daniel McCullers, Tennessee NT/DT 6-7 350+
Healthy appetite should consist of 2 blockers, Wilfork's heir
3. #65 (Hou)-Weston Richburg, Colorado St. C 6-4 300
Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Vollmer, Cannon, Kline, this guy
3. #93-C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa St. TE 6-6 262
Gronk insurance
4. #128-Keith McGill, Utah CB/S 6-3 214
For the love of God Bill, no more DB smurphs!
6. #196(Phil)-Cody Hoffman, Brigham Young WR 6-4 218
For the love of God Bill, no more WR smurphs!
6. #204-Ryan Hewitt, Stanford FB/TE 6-4 245
Love hybrids
6. #210(Comp)-Tom Savage, Pittsburgh QB 6-4 245
I feel compelled to take a QB with a 6th Rd Comp Pick
7. #242-Matt Hall, Bellhaven OT 6-9 325
Why not? He's huge!

Fire Away!

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1. I still like Murphy, just not in the 1st. Great production. If we traded back and picked him up in early-mid 2nd I think some here would have a meltdown but I'd still be good with it.
2.Still like the player, but he's dropping. Switch him and CJF would sound more logical.
3.I still think a Mallet trade has a 50% chance on draft day. Swanson is also I guy I like, maybe both a little lower though.
3.See 2. Also would love to see Telvin Smith last until here(93).
4.Pre Browner/Revis. Too low for him anyhow. He's long gone by 130. Good spot to grab our C.
4.Like everyone else I thought a 6 was headed our way. #140 would be a good spot to grab a RB like Jerick Mckinnon if he's still on the board
6.Still like a WR here, but how about Jeff Janis instead.
6.Look at what a difference 2 moths can make, huh? I don't think anyone would be shocked to see Savage go in the 1st. Hall's risen some as well. Cannon's gone next year. Time to groom a new tree.
7.Nicer spot for a Ryan Hewitt. I'd love a flyer on Tyler Starr as well.

OhExaulted1 said:

This is from http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ds/the-2014-mock-draft-thread.1034735/page-39 post #780 Feb 19.



1. I still like Murphy, just not in the 1st. Great production. If we traded back and picked him up in early-mid 2nd I think some here would have a meltdown but I'd still be good with it.

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Is it just me, or do we NEED to have a "Murphy" on this team? I think we do.

supafly said:

Is it just me, or do we NEED to have a "Murphy" on this team? I think we do.

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Hell with it. Draft 'em both lad.

OhExaulted1 said:

This is from http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ds/the-2014-mock-draft-thread.1034735/page-39 post #780 Feb 19.

4.Pre Browner/Revis. Too low for him anyhow. He's long gone by 130. Good spot to grab our C.

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#128-Keith McGill, Utah CB/S 6-3 214

Thanks. I need to start reading up on him.

Before: I had absolutely no idea what the Pats will do next weekend.
Now: Not only do I still have no idea, I'm now absolutely convinced absolutely no one else does, either.

In my ~ shall we call them "formative?" ~ Draft Years, I used to issue Mocks where I'd have us Trading Down like fiends, and ending up with 15 or even 20 Draft Picks!!

Nowadays?

I'll require at least 30.

mgteich said:

How has my thinking changed?

1) LB is more likely as one of the first two picks.

2) TE is pretty much off the board at 29, especially if we sign Keller.

3) WR is very possible at 29, or with a bit of a trade up (for Beckham).

4) We might actually draft a DE with one of our top two picks.

5) Quarterback is possible at 29 (or a bit lower with a trade down).

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I rarely find myself disagreeing with you. This is one of those times, MG.

1. I think too much has been made of the Keller visit. Personally I think he's a option IF the TE they want isn't where they want to pick one. Also he's way too much of a health risk to pass on a TE that they like. IMHO, Keller is only a back up plan if the draft doesn't work out at TE.

2. Given the investment the Pats have made in draft capital and cap space on WR's already, and the myriad of more pressing needs, I can't imagine a scenario where a WR is picked in the first 4 rounds. Your #3 comment astounds me.

3. ....And if #3 astounds me, your comment at #5 makes me question your sanity. For the all the many and well documented reasons, our LACK of a need for a QB....period is evident and doesn't need repeating. Thinking we might pick one in either the first or 2nd rounds would be absolutely insane.

4, As for looking at a LB or DE in the first couple of rounds, I agree that its a distinct possibility. Improving the quality of the depth at those positions should be an important goal of this draft.

Didn't think Pats would pick Easley and didn't bother paying much attention to him because of the ACL injury.

Heard he could be back for training camp, watched a ton of film, and want him bad. I would take the risk of drafting him at 29 in a heart beat. High motor and unreal first step.

patfanken said:

2. Given the investment the Pats have made in draft capital and cap space on WR's already, and the myriad of more pressing needs, I can't imagine a scenario where a WR is picked in the first 4 rounds. Your #3 comment astounds me.

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I can. Rather than look at the position in a black and white way I would say that if they find that they cannot fill the Hernadez role with a TE then they may look to a big athletic WR who can run after the catch to fill that role and maybe some more. They may bot be as interested in bringing in a guy like Robinson to compete for Dobson's role as they are to play a bigger inside game with Gronkowski while maintaining the ability to split out wide.

patfanken said:

2. Given the investment the Pats have made in draft capital and cap space on WR's already, and the myriad of more pressing needs, I can't imagine a scenario where a WR is picked in the first 4 rounds. Your #3 comment astounds me.

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You can't imagine a scenario where they pick a WR in the first 4 rounds, when this is one of the deepest WR classes ever and the TE class is abysmal? And when the Patriots have a lot of players but no difference makers at the position? Give that imagination a workout, Ken!

3. ....And if #3 astounds me, your comment at #5 makes me question your sanity. For the all the many and well documented reasons, our LACK of a need for a QB....period is evident and doesn't need repeating. Thinking we might pick one in either the first or 2nd rounds would be absolutely insane.

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Guess I'm a little slow, or perhaps insane, because this still isn't a bit evident to me. The last time the Patriots had their established backup entering the final year of his rookie contract, they used a 3rd-round pick on a quarterback. And Tom Brady was six years younger then.

I'm expecting a pick rounds 3-4, but if they think a prospect available at #62 is the real deal I wouldn't rush to have them committed.

Ivan said:

I can. Rather than look at the position in a black and white way I would say that if they find that they cannot fill the Hernadez role with a TE then they may look to a big athletic WR who can run after the catch to fill that role and maybe some more. They may bot be as interested in bringing in a guy like Robinson to compete for Dobson's role as they are to play a bigger inside game with Gronkowski while maintaining the ability to split out wide.

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This isn't a bad point, Ivan, considering the talk that BOB was the big proponent of the 2 TE rather than Josh. HOWEVER.... like I said, given the multiple needs elsewhere (DL, LB, OL, TE), and the already heavy investment they have already made at WR, I don't see a scenario for a WR early.

Besides the fact is that WR's aren't impact players. If they were, then why are the vast majority of the best WR's in the game not playing in January.

patfanken said:

Besides the fact is that WR's aren't impact players. If they were, then why are the vast majority of the best WR's in the game not playing in January.

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This to me is the most compelling argument. In the past I've argued against round-1 WRs in principle, because it's perhaps the hardest position to project from college and because its importance is overrated. But yet: we saw what happened when Tom Brady had Randy Moss deep and Wes Welker underneath. And given that an impact TE, IMO, is just not happening in this draft, I'm ready to roll the dice on some of the undeniable receiver talent.

You can't imagine a scenario where they pick a WR in the first 4 rounds, when this is one of the deepest WR classes ever and the TE class is abysmal? And when the Patriots have a lot of players but no difference makers at the position? Give that imagination a workout, Ken!

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2 points on this quote.

1. I never mentioned TE's as not being likely as an early pick. TE's are a completely different category from WR's in terms of value and impact. I have consistently listed a TE as one of my top 2 picks. That's not fair to include TE's. PC.

2. Like I said to Ivan. If "impact WR's" were so important, why were so many of them NOT in the playoffs last season....and the season before that.....and the season before that.

The fact is that there have been several WR's who have had big impacts on superbowl winning teams. However most have them haven't been the so called #1 WR's that everyone seems to demand that we have to have.

Guess I'm a little slow, or perhaps insane, because this still isn't a bit evident to me. The last time the Patriots had their established backup entering the final year of his rookie contract, they used a 3rd-round pick on a quarterback. And Tom Brady was six years younger then.

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BTW - if you remember I wasn't thrilled about that pick either. (see PFK major meltdown #23) . I don't question your logic as stated, but I think the situations are different. That roster spot is important, and if we draft a QB, AND keep Mallett, then we'd need to keep 3 QB's on the 53. In the unlikely situation that Mallett DOES get traded, then of course a QB becomes a likely pick. And while you might be many things.....'slow" isn't one of them

I'm expecting a pick rounds 3-4, but if they think a prospect available at #62 is the real deal I wouldn't rush to have them committed.​

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Some could argue that the really good WRs cost to much AND are picked to high in the draft. To get a high pick you need a bad QB visa vasa. I think the most of us wants 2 TE sets again, myself inc. But this WR class is so strong and so good, so those WRs Patriots normaly ain't haveing a shoot at, happens to be in range this time.

Ivan said:

I would say that if they find that they cannot fill the Hernadez role with a TE then they may look to a big athletic WR who can run after the catch to fill that role and maybe some more.

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...Or maybe just Catch The Falling Knife ~ Kelvin Benjamin!!

I, for one, already have'm listed as a Flex End...which is a far better fit for'm than Split End.

patfanken said:

1. I never mentioned TE's as not being likely as an early pick. TE's are a completely different category from WR's in terms of value and impact. I have consistently listed a TE as one of my top 2 picks. That's not fair to include TE's. PC.

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Ken, I didn't suggest that you don't want to draft a TE early. Quite the opposite, in fact. My point was that you (like all of us!) desperately want a top tight end, but they're just not available in this draft. Which is part of the scenario that makes a WR more of a realistic target.

patchick said:

Ken, I didn't suggest that you don't want to draft a TE early. Quite the opposite, in fact. My point was that you (like all of us!) desperately want a top tight end, but they're just not available in this draft. Which is part of the scenario that makes a WR more of a realistic target.

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I don't know, PC I guess (and the key word here is "guess") a lot will depend on how the Pats' personnel people rate the TE's vs the WR's in this draft. I'm no expert, but there are a lot of people who seem to think there are at least 5 really good ones, and one of them should be available when the Pats pick in the first 2-3 rounds.

Then again Ivan might be right and Josh's influence might be to get away from 2 TE's and use a big WR (ie Harrison) instead of the "flex TE" (thanks Grid) to replace the Hernandez role in the offense. There is a case to be made that its a lot easier to find a Harrison/Benjamin type WR than it is to find a Hernandez type TE, yet given the right talent, they could perform similar tasks

The fact is that I have no clue. The FO might love the TE's or hate them. Josh might want to go more to 3 WR's over 2 TE's, or he may not. I'd love to say that the way the Pats draft next week will give us some answers to those questions, but it really won't. Who they want and and who is there are sometimes 2 different things. All I guess we are going to get are
"indications" of their strategy