Quarterback and Running Back

Armchair Quarterback said:

The numbers don't back you up on this. Thirteen out of the top fifteen rushers from 2013 were picked in the first three rounds, 7 were 1st rounders ( Peterson, Lynch, Matthews, Johnson, Moreno, Bush and Spiller), 3 were 2nd rounders (McCoy, Forte, Lacy), 3 were 3rd rounders (Charles, Murray, Gore), 1 was a fifth rounder (Stacy) and 1 a sixth (Morris).

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and of that list of players, the only one worthy of a market value contract is adrian peterson, a once in a generation runner.

The rest i would wager their teams think they are over paid, and a large portion of them are on at LEAST their second team now, with a couple being replaced as soon as next year(murray, spiller) anything higher then a 5th round pick on a rb is a waste of a pick.

Big-T said:

Bolden can catch? News to me! All I saw him do last year was drop 3rd down after 3rd down when Vereen was on IR! Replacing him with Seastrunk (for example) would be an instant upgrade in all phases of the game.

The idea is to improve not stagnate and ignore areas that can be upgraded - RB can be upgraded via the draft.

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Seastrunk had zero catches last year. Bolden had a 10.3 drop %, Vereen 10.1, so essentially the same.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

I agree with you when you say the idea is to improve not stagnate and ignore areas that can be upgraded - RB can be upgraded via the draft. If the RB is projected to be the better player you take the RB, not a lesser rated C or DL based on need.

chasa said:

and of that list of players, the only one worthy of a market value contract is adrian peterson, a once in a generation runner.

The rest i would wager their teams think they are over paid, and a large portion of them are on at LEAST their second team now, with a couple being replaced as soon as next year(murray, spiller) anything higher then a 5th round pick on a rb is a waste of a pick.

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Your first statement was factually wrong, now you're basing it on what you assume a team thinks and unprovable future moves, so you really don't have anything to base your opinion on.

Armchair Quarterback said:

Seastrunk had zero catches last year. Bolden had a 10.3 drop %, Vereen 10.1, so essentially the same.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

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He didn't have any last year but there's a video on the draft forum somewhere of what happens when Baylor did use him in the passing game though, he's a home run threat.

Vereen had a number of drops due to trying to catch over his shoulder with a cast on his hand, Bolden just has stone hands.

Big-T said:

He didn't have any last year but there's a video on the draft forum somewhere of what happens when Baylor did use him in the passing game though, he's a home run threat.

Vereen had a number of drops due to trying to catch over his shoulder with a cast on his hand, Bolden just has stone hands.

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Vereen was also playing with a broken wrist that still had a soft cast on it, despite that he caught 47 of 69 balls thrown his direction.

Wouldn't a cast make the lasers thrown at you much harder to catch than the over-the-shoulder passes. I suspect Vereen's struggles with over-the-shoulder catches are perceptual rather than injury related.

Big-T said:

Vereen had a number of drops due to trying to catch over his shoulder with a cast on his hand, Bolden just has stone hands.

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He had 21 catches and 55 carries last year. That's a pretty high ratio. Bolden has been put on the field in 3rd down passing situations. He, unlike Lawfirm, has hands or the Patriots wouldn't put him in those situations.

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While what chasa said concerning Top 10 RBs was incorrect, it should be noted that the list of Patriots RBs in the Top 10 under Belichick is even smaller than the list of <#73 RBs the last five years. Here they are:

2004: Corey Dillon, #3
2012: Stevan Ridley, #7

That's it. "Top 10 Rusher" isn't a need. What is a need right now is "guy who can play on all special teams units and pass protect in a pinch." Part of the reason Blount isn't here is he doesn't fill those needs very well.

unoriginal said:

He had 21 catches and 55 carries last year. That's a pretty high ratio. Bolden has been put on the field in 3rd down passing situations. He, unlike Lawfirm, has hands or the Patriots wouldn't put him in those situations.

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While what chasa said concerning Top 10 RBs was incorrect, it should be noted that the list of Patriots RBs in the Top 10 under Belichick is even smaller than the list of <#73 RBs the last five years. Here they are:

2004: Corey Dillon, #3
2012: Stevan Ridley, #7

That's it. "Top 10 Rusher" isn't a need. What is a need right now is "guy who can play on all special teams units and pass protect in a pinch." Part of the reason Blount isn't here is he doesn't fill those needs very well.

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Isn't what is needed is an entire RB depth chart for 2015?

AndyJohnson said:

Isn't what is needed is an entire RB depth chart for 2015?

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And we can't guarantee that any of the incumbents will be re-signed. The last three significant ones weren't.

Deus Irae said:

I'm not being silly. Your comment



was ludicrous, and claiming that the team has its medium to long term starting safety in house is a triumph of hope over reality. What good is it for you to bring all sorts of data and information to the table if you're just going to ignore it when it comes time to actually thinking about what's going on with the team?

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That's exactly what I'm doing:

The last three incumbents weren't re-signed so to assume that they'll automatically do so for a guy that gets benched every time he fumbles and an injury prone Vereen seems hopeful.

BB drafted Ridley and Vereen at least a year ahead of BJGE and Woodhead leaving so to suggest that there is no medium thinking when it comes to RB is ridiculous. Do you think BB just throws darts at a wall?

As for safety, you have your own personal view and I have mine. They could take a safety but I don't think it's a grade A need. That's a difference of opinion, not a difference of fact.

Armchair Quarterback said:

Your first statement was factually wrong, now you're basing it on what you assume a team thinks and unprovable future moves, so you really don't have anything to base your opinion on.

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I think the fact that the teams that used to have those players and watched them walk away, and in some cases, shipped them off, is fact enough that a large portion of the list isn't worth what they are being paid to the team that drafted them.

patsinthesnow said:

Andre Williams could step in day one and compete for the starting job in the 3rd round. He would be our 2015 starter for less than a million while Ridley walks elsewhere.

This draft has a good amount of talented RBs that could probably beat out Ridley for the starting job (Williams, Hyde, Mason, Sankey). Upgrading our starting RB and securing a starter for 2015 and beyond is worth a late 2nd-3rd, but it looks like me/manx/mgteich are in the minority on this one.

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If Kadeem is available I would be pretty excited to see the Pats get him. While he isn't fast, he runs hard as hell and always gets extra yards. Has good hands and can block too.

chasa said:

I think the fact that the teams that used to have those players and watched them walk away, and in some cases, shipped them off, is fact enough that a large portion of the list isn't worth what they are being paid to the team that drafted them.

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11 of the 15 are still with their original team. Of the four that changed teams, Moreno was replaced by a third rounder, not a FA, Johnson was let go because of production (And we'll see on Thursday if the Titans will use a 2nd or 3rd rounder or if they'll wait and sign a UDFA as his replacement), Lynch has more than proved his worth with his new team and Bush just signed his new contract in 2013.

unoriginal said:

IF the Pats don't move Mallett, I doubt they want to carry a third QB, so that precludes a mid-round pick there unless they just love a guy. QBs seem like they'll get overdrafted this year (look at Savage) so unless Mallett gets traded before the start of Day 2 it'll be a guy who has a chance of making the practice squad without being claimed. Perhaps a guy like Fales who could use a redshirt year.

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I don't know about you, but I don't feel too comfortable knowing that our backup QB spot will be filled by a developmental guy on the practice squad---unless of course, he's just one of those "lightning in a bottle" kind of lucked out picks. As we know, those have happened before quite frequently during the Belichick era, but one has to ask what kind of odds we have of repeating that?

With some of the talent that should still be available middle rounds (3rd, 4th) I wouldn't mind seeing our "new" backup through March 2018 taken, even if it means keeping 3 on the 53 man roster this year. I know that roster spots are at an obvious premium, but it's okay to keep a 3rd QB every so often when the situation dictates. It's not like it's an every year thing.

Need is always important but ultimately the purpose of the draft is to get the very best players you can, and while I don't have either back-up QB or RB as pressing need right now I still think that if someone they really like is there and grades out better than the need then take them and address the need another way. As an example most of us feel that interior OL is a pressing need, i certainly do, and when the Patriots third rounder rolls around we may well be wanting a center or an OG, however they could take Ka'Deem Carey and get the best RB in this draft with a late third rounder. They could then go IOL in the fourth and move cannon to OG and the needs are set while getting the talent, at least imo.


This draft is loaded with talent and the patriots should be able to come out of it with at least 4 guys who contribute significantly to this season, and what matters is how good they are, filling needs with guys who don't pan out never does any good, and as need driven as i may be when looking at the draft as it is coming that all changes when it is time to play, and getting the right guys often means looking past the need and at the player's.

Brady2Gronk said:

If Kadeem is available I would be pretty excited to see the Pats get him. While he isn't fast, he runs hard as hell and always gets extra yards. Has good hands and can block too.

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I agree, i like Carey and think he would be an excellent fit for the patriots. They don't need blazing speed they need a smart tough RB who knows how to play in a system that is more pass oriented, and Carey fits that perfectly. if he is there at #95 he would be really high on my list of players to take even though i don't think RB is a big need.

chasa said:

Mostly because you can get a running back off the street, plug him into an office, and he has just as good of a chance of being a top ten RB that year, as a RB drafted #1 overall..

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No way. After sitting around in an office a RB's skills would drop off considerably.

I poked around at a few mocks yesterday, and all these people have us taking McCarron at various places (including with trades of various degrees of unlikeliness, usually involving Mallet.)

supafly said:

I don't know about you, but I don't feel too comfortable knowing that our backup QB spot will be filled by a developmental guy on the practice squad...

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You do know about me: I've repeatedly pointed out the Pats went with Hoyer as the lone backup when he was a UDFA. I'd be completely comfortable with the sole backup in 2015 being a 2nd-year guy who spent 2014 on the practice squad.

It's hardly lightning in a bottle. The Pats have developed Brady, Cassel, and Hoyer into performing NFL QBs. That's a track record. Meanwhile, while the Pats have drafted Rohan Davey, Kevin O'Connell, and Ryan Mallett as mid-round QBs, only Mallett has "stuck" as a QB, and we still don't know how he'd do with regular snaps/elsewhere. In fact, both Cassel and Hoyer beat out mid-round QBs who were drafted a year ahead of them. I'd probably be more comfortable with a low-round guy being developed at this point, even if it didn't save us draft capital and have the potential to save a roster spot, because of the history.

Definitely I would like an upgrade over Fumbley