How has your thinking changed?

A broader change in my thinking: my hunch is now that we're looking at an offense-first Patriots draft.

A QB is a near certainty, with only one (who will be age 38) under contract for 2015. Ditto RB. We all know they need an interior OL and a TE now. OT may be wise to look at, given Vollmer's injury history. And the Pats have been heavily scouting WRs, given that this is one of the best WR classes in memory.

patchick said:

A broader change in my thinking: my hunch is now that we're looking at an offense-first Patriots draft.

Click to expand...

Agreed and I've said so before on one of these threads. A lot of our recent #1 picks have been defense. Collins, Chandler, Hightower, McCourty, add in some FA signees and there's a lot of talent there to work with. The offense is where questions should be starting to creep in with the TE situation, RB becomming FA, etc.

I'm expecting a lot of offense except that I do want and expect a DL to be taken early. Preferably one who can legitimately play DE unless they feel good about Armstead and Buchanon. I daren't mention Bequette but you never know. But whether it's a viable DE rotation guy or DT pass rush type (with Kelly probably entering his last year with us), we need to spend a highish pick there. Other than that I expect the "defense" guys to be disappointed although there will be some bones thrown later for backup types especially at LB.

The biggest change for me has been my view on Shazier. I initially didn't want him because i felt like he was too undersized for them, but upon further review i decided that the Patriots need the cover abilities and athleticism he would bring to their LB unit, and they are so thin there that the extra starting caliber LB would be welcome.

Trying to put my finger on the defense. It is like a Chinese jigsaw puzzle trying to break it down. I keep having to remind myself that Mayo,Wilfork and Kelly are coming back. As well as the enigma that is Armond Armstead.

The sack production was there. But was the pressure there? You would think the ramped up secondary is also going to help the pressure as well as the coverage.

The thing that has bothered me the most over the last few seasons has been the yardage and 3rd down conversions. It truly is downright bitter taste in your mouth as a fan to watch this. Again, I expect that to improve with the signings.

That's why my binkies are any LB that cover TEs and Wr's. Collins is a great start but I would like to see another coverage LB added. I'm totally on board with J.Tripp or C.Jones and I'd be more than happy to use 62 on one of them regardless of round value. I'd love to see Aaron Donald but they have no realistic shot at that so I would like to see a definite need addressed instead. after following other posters binkies and all the hard work they put in they have me convinced that one of these two players fit the bill. They have changed from hoping to get one in the 3rd or 4th to must haves for me and would be more than willing to take the brunt of the head scratchers out there saying way to early.

As far as 29 I'm just flat out confused who they are going to pick. Probably if Hageman is there I would suspect they take him. But I've come to be pretty trusting of what the Pats do with their first round pick. Their hit rate is very successful so if they take a guard,QB or a TE I'll be confident it was a good pick on their part. Personally hoping for a trade back myself to get some of this 2nd tier talent.

I have to admit the learned commentary by others on the board have caused me to rethink my first reaction to the is draft a lot. Originally I thought DL, TE, and interior OL should be the first 3 picks in that order. In my ideal world that would STILL be my preference, especially if Hageman, Niklas, and Richberg where the names attached to those positions.

However if things don't fall that way, and say an offensive lineman is selected I won't hit the roof as I might have if it happened in March. The Pats have had excellent luck drafting OLmen early (at least early for them) Light, Volmer, and Mankins were instant starters and long term success stories. They drafted Solder 1st a year ahead of need, and that's worked out fantastically.

I think if they move Cannon to RG and let Connolly and Wendell fight it out for the C job, I will be very happy with the OL for THIS year. But that being said, drafting a future starting C or G this year early makes some sense, especially if the are ranked significantly higher than any DLman that's available.

But I still remain strongly AGAINST drafting a Safety or WR in the first 3 rounds. I also don't want to see us use one of those 4th round picks on a QB for obvious reasons

patfanken said:

I also don't want to see us use one of those 4th round picks on a QB for obvious reasons

Click to expand...

Ken, this one isn't so obvious to me. It's time to develop the critically important backup to next season's 38-year-old starting quarterback.

Username said:

I started off being all about Jace Amaro, until I actually scouted him. Now I'd be disappointed if we drafted him before the 3rd. Started off not really wanting a QB but the more I watch Connor Shaw, the more I want him. He's intelligent, hard working, accurate, mobile and doesn't turn the ball over. Doesn't have a cannon arm, but that's ok, when was the last time we completed a deep pass more than once a game? He's a perfect Patriot imho, and the fact that he'll probably still be there in the 7th only increases the binky factor.

Click to expand...

I scouted Amaro and I think the guy would be a beast in the Pat's offense. I don't get all the Anti-Amaro scentiments around here. The guy's an amazing talent, a team leader, he wants the ball when the game is on the line, that's the kinda guy I want on my team. I'd be thrilled if we wound up landing Amaro.

patchick said:

Ken, this one isn't so obvious to me. It's time to develop the critically important backup to next season's 38-year-old starting quarterback.

Click to expand...

Well we are gonna have to disagree on this one I'm afraid, PC. Next year there will be plenty of vet QB's on the market (as usual) who can be capable back ups as WELL as the usual assortment of rookie QB's who can compete for the job.

I can't see using a draft pick, especially in that sweet spot in the 4th round, to grab a QB who, at best is going to sit for 3 more years, plus take up a valuable roster spot. Do you really think that any QB we draft this year would be better than, say, Rex Grossman, if we need a guy to manage a couple of games.

That being said I think we do need to add at least 1 more QB to be a camp arm, and PS QB. I think Jeff Matthews fits that bill nicely, and is likely to be a UDFA.

I initially thought it was a foregone conclusion that we would use an early draft choice on a safety. I am now pretty much convinced that if we do pick a safety, it will be in the later rounds. I'm thinking a trade back in round one is probably what we are going to do.

The overall needs haven't really changed and still want DT/DE/OC/OG/TE/ILB picks in the draft. What has changed in some of the players including Hagemen may be available after trading down. If the Pats can pull off another Minnesota trade this year and still have a pick in the 35 - 39 range, they can get a DL and add up additional picks. Imagine the Pats having 2 2nd, 2 3rd and 3 4th round picks. This can be a real strong draft and filling a lot of needs.

The more I look at the draft and the players available on days 2 and 3, the more convinced I am the Patriots will trade back and add a collection of quality players in the middle rounds.

There's too much talent to stay put at 29. Someone will slide and the Patriots (hopefully) will be poised to come home with a plethora of mid round picks.

Ivan said:

The biggest change for me has been my view on Shazier. I initially didn't want him because i felt like he was too undersized for them, but upon further review i decided that the Patriots need the cover abilities and athleticism he would bring to their LB unit, and they are so thin there that the extra starting caliber LB would be welcome.

Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more. As a guy who follows all things OSU football, I initially thought that both Shazier and Roby were overhyped, but now feel as though Shazier would be a fine choice in the 1st round.

ausbacker said:

The more I look at the draft and the players available on days 2 and 3, the more convinced I am the Patriots will trade back and add a collection of quality players in the middle rounds.

There's too much talent to stay put at 29. Someone will slide and the Patriots (hopefully) will be poised to come home with a plethora of mid round picks.

Click to expand...

I really hope you're right about trading down, as long as we don't wait until 52 again like last year (although the value of that specific trade was simply too good to pass up).

With 2 picks in the fourth round, we could very well have 5 or 6 picks in rounds two--four, should they choose to trade down. That "meat" of the draft could go a long way.

patchick said:

Ken, this one isn't so obvious to me. It's time to develop the critically important backup to next season's 38-year-old starting quarterback.

Click to expand...

I agree with you patchick. I really think that the backup QB position should be strongly considered in the 3rd or 4th rounds. It enables us to get the "needs" at other positions with 5 picks in the first four rounds, while still having the luxury to take a QB prospect high enough that he would have a fine chance of being very talented.

I actually feel quite opposite of Ken's opinion, in the sense that I feel that too many undervalue the backup position. It seems as though they assume that we can somehow continue to scoop something off of the scrap heap in the 7th/UDFA rounds, and that will be good enough. The QB position--starter or backup is the most valuable position on the entire team.

patfanken said:

I think if they move Cannon to RG and let Connolly and Wendell fight it out for the C job, I will be very happy with the OL for THIS year. But that being said, drafting a future starting C or G this year early makes some sense, especially if the are ranked significantly higher than any DLman that's available.

Click to expand...

Realizing that this is going to be an extremely unpopular thought, I wonder if there is any possibility that we could actually draft an OT first, rather than an IOL--which is what we all assume?

Let's look at it this way: we have at least ONE of Connelly/Wendell, Kline looked just fine filling in and is part of the Scarnecchia pipeline, and we could still end up using Cannon for RG. That would give us 4 guys on the interior, and 5 if we kept both Connelly/Wendell (not that I want them both on the field at the same time again).

In comparison, all we really have proven are Solder and Vollmer for our outside needs, with Cannon as a swingman who could play either OT or OG. If the right guy is available at OT, I wouldn't be totally shocked if that's the way they went.

FWIW--I still think they'll need to pick a guy at IOL, but the outside possibility exists that it could be later in the draft than we assume, with an OT pick coming before, should BB see the right guy still on the board. I also believe that we still need to fix the problem of the Connelly/Wendell duo, but that could be done any number of ways just the same. We could have Connelly slide over to center again, and have Wendell as our 6th OL. In that scenario, Cannon may play some RG...or even Kline as well.

I felt like NE was going to go defense in the 1st round but the past week I've shifted that thought to an offensive lineman. And I'd be fine with that as BB usually hits the nail on the head when selecting a lineman that high.

I agree with the poster(s) above who feel this could be an offense-heavy draft for the Patriots. Unless one of the impact defenders fall to #29, I could envision the team trading back a few into the second and grabbing someone like Carlos Hyde with their first pick. Thereafter, they could target interior offensive line, wide receiver, tight end with their subsequent picks. I could also see a coverage linebacker in the middle rounds, as well as taking someone like OG Thomas or CB Colvin with a middle round pick and redshirting either for a year with an eye towards 2015. Perhaps they would do this last bit with extra middle round picks acquired via trading down (e.g. out of the first round).

All in all, I agree (like others here) that the Patriots draft decisions do not hinge solely on filling 2013's shortcomings but also 2015's anticipated holes...

Ivan said:

The biggest change for me has been my view on Shazier. I initially didn't want him because i felt like he was too undersized for them, but upon further review i decided that the Patriots need the cover abilities and athleticism he would bring to their LB unit, and they are so thin there that the extra starting caliber LB would be welcome.

Click to expand...

Agree.
Collins is a freak that can cover or attack. Shazier is the solution to free up Collins. On passing downs, the LB corp needs speed. We've seen how teams exploit the 3rd and longs with dump offs that exploited the lack of LB speed. No doubt the Mayo injury last year forced to many square pegs into round holes....but still, Mayo and Hightower are not fleet of foot and this is a passing league. A Collins/Shazier duo would be nice tools for an aggressive D coordinator

I think i expect the pats to trade down more now and i am okay with that, they do not need any true starters on the team but they need high quality depth and they can get more value by trading down.

I guess this is what Caserio and NE are thinking:

Mike Petraglia @Trags
Karen Guregian asks Caserio if @Patriots would use draft this year to begin to replace Tom Brady. "We're thinking short term right now."

Click to expand...