Ranking Patriots Draft Needs

http://joepatsfan.blogspot.com/2014/04/patriots-draft-needs.html

I think we all know the needs, which I have explained some above^^, but how do YOU rank them?

To me, it comes down to best available at the pick. So say Kony Ealy and Ra'shede Hageman are there at 29, I would want Ealy because he's the safer pick in my opinion.

Now say everything is equal, talent wise, when we pick.... Then I would rank needs like this:

1. DE 2. TE 3. DT 4. Hybrid/Type 5.SS 6. OL 7. WR

If all things are equal:

1) TE

2) C

3) LB

4) DT

5) DE

6) OG

7) SS

Ivan said:

If all things are equal:

1) TE

2) C

3) LB

4) DT

5) DE

6) OG

7) SS

Click to expand...

While I agree that C is a position of obvious importance, the only thing I'd disagree with may be the thought that the priority would come quite that high. That is simply due to the fact that we could likely still improve upon our weakness from last year's interior disaster of Connelly/Wendell by moving Connelly to center and pairing him with either Cannon/Kline at RG. As long as the 2 of them aren't together again, and the receiving options are more on page with Brady, I think we'll see those 40 sacks come down pretty dramatically to around 25 or so, maybe the high 20s at worst. I think we may be able to get by with IOL in the mid rounds myself.

I agree with just taking BPA, even though we do have a bit of a "need" at TE, DL, and LB just as well.

As you said in another post, I'd be happy with Shazier. I'd also be happy with one of the DL choices as well, or even possibly the TE selection of our choice before he's off the board when we pick at 62.

I'd be tempted to wait until the 3rd round for the center/guard choice, maybe even the 4th depending on how the board falls.

De/olb, ilb depth, Rb, then Dt, Te, Ol, S, cb depth

These are team needs, that could/may be addressed by improvement in play at SS and DE by players on the current roster.

DE, ( a 3-4 type that can slide in and out) SS, TE, C, OLB, ILB, ILB, DT,

Joe,

Great post and thoughts. I've heard there could be day one starters drafted in the 3rd or 4th round this year ( some positions.) So, do you think those two players you mentioned are first round talent, or can Bill get equal value later in the draft?

I think linebacker in our number priority this year. Can someone call Bill and tell him to watch some Green Bay Packer's tape (Matthews) and stop running half marathons. The 2009 NFL Draft is still bothering me.

It's hard to say what our needs are because we don't know the progress of Gronk. If he's healthy then TE goes down a bit, if he's not then it increases.

I would say generally our main needs are:

1. Defensive line versatility
2. An offensive playmaker
3. Coverage linebacker
4. A No 2 Tight End
5. Interior O-line help
6. Running back depth

If we came out of the draft with some versatile lineman on both sides of the ball, an extra weapon on offense and some depth at LB, RB and TE I'd be happy. That seems achievable.

The big question for me: how do you weigh a moderate need for 2014 vs. a major need for 2015? E.g., competition/upgrade for Buchanan and Armstead as an immediate rotational DE vs. the totally bare RB cupboard next year? The calculation requires considering "plug-and-play" each position is, and whether talent is generally available in free agency.

My overall priorities of the moment, in rough order: LB (with an eye toward coverage), TE, OL, QB, DT, RB, S, DE.

Priorities are different from draft order, though. Assuming Vollmer and Gronkowski are on track to be healthy, I don't see any position that absolutely has to be drafted in the top 2 rounds.

For instance, at LB somebody from the group of Christian Kirksey, Christian Jones and Jordan Tripp should be available in the middle rounds. There's such a mysterious cloud of QBs that the difference between rounds 2 & 4 talents might not be too great. And at TE, I'd rather make do with a Crockett Gillmore than spend a high pick on the motley crew of more heralded prospects. So at #29, I'm just looking for a long-term impact player. Assuming Shazier -- my top combo for need + potential -- is gone, the best talent available projects to be at WR, CB and DT.

rob1984 said:

Joe,

Great post and thoughts. I've heard there could be day one starters drafted in the 3rd or 4th round this year ( some positions.) So, do you think those two players you mentioned are first round talent, or can Bill get equal value later in the draft?

I think linebacker in our number priority this year. Can someone call Bill and tell him to watch some Green Bay Packer's tape (Matthews) and stop running half marathons. The 2009 NFL Draft is still bothering me.

Click to expand...

The DE/OLB rusher position is "deep" in this draft but not necessarily talented. You could find a lot of situational rushers here but I think Ealy is more talented than that. He could come in and make a difference as the rushers from Rd2-4 could be contributors too

As for Hageman, the potential on this kid is crazy. People compare his athleticism to JJ Watt. That's what intrigues me about him. If the Patriots don't want to take the risk on this guy I am fine with that but I still believe they need another body at DT. And there are solid options in round2-3 that could be groomed for starting roles in 2-3 years

patchick said:

The big question for me: how do you weigh a moderate need for 2014 vs. a major need for 2015? E.g., competition/upgrade for Buchanan and Armstead as an immediate rotational DE vs. the totally bare RB cupboard next year? The calculation requires considering "plug-and-play" each position is, and whether talent is generally available in free agency.

For instance, at LB somebody from the group of Christian Kirksey, Christian Jones and Jordan Tripp should be available in the middle rounds. So at #29, I'm just looking for a long-term impact player. Assuming Shazier -- my top combo for need + potential -- is gone, the best talent available projects to be at WR, CB and DT.

Click to expand...

Really good post. Need to think 2014 but also beyond that too.

I would agree that at 29 I want impact too. Doesn't really matter position as long as the player makes an immediate contribution whether a sub or starter and shows good potential, no complaints from me.

Some good discussion, attached is a projected depth chart and then my assumptions \ bias.

Link to Depth Chart

Ranking

1. DT - Don't trust that both Wilfork and Kelly will bounce back from injuries and be productive. If one of them is not above average the Patriots are stuck with one of the worst defensive lines in memory.
2. DE - Zero depth behind starters
3. Safety - Hard to trust Harmon and depth is brutal. They should have an opportunity to pick from most of the Safeties at 29 or select a pretty good player in round 2.
   
4. OL - Should be an above average unit as currently setup but should count on a least one injury and some of the core is creeping up in age. Would like two players drafted as early as round 2.
5. TE - Gronk may not be back until week 6 or more. Group could use some bodies but don't see this as a focus on the offense.
6. LB - They have 3 good starters plus other spare parts that could play some OLB in certain situations. More athletes would not hurt.
7. WR - Pretty much set but at 29 the BPA will be better than most of the Patriots WRs, maybe even at 58.
8. QB - Too soon to plan life after Brady and don't think a "project" QB helps the roster. If Brady goes down the Patriots are not capable of winning a superbowl. No problem with a round 4+ QB to come in and compete or replace Mallett but don't see this as a long-term option, just a stop gap. Also ok if they don't draft a QB then wait until next year.
9. RBs - Not a valued position, rookies can come in an immediately contribute. Even if there were no RBs signed going into 2015 I would be ok. For 2014 draft would be ok with a round 5+ RB.
10. CB - Good depth and solid mix of skills. You can never have too many CBs, maybe a CB\S hybrid or slot CB \ special teamer.

Relationship to draft

• Round 1 -2 - BPA at DT, Safety, DE, WR (only because of the depth this year)
• Round 3-4 - BPA at OL, TE, LB
• Round 5+ - fill in rest of roster

supafly said:

While I agree that C is a position of obvious importance, the only thing I'd disagree with may be the thought that the priority would come quite that high. That is simply due to the fact that we could likely still improve upon our weakness from last year's interior disaster of Connelly/Wendell by moving Connelly to center and pairing him with either Cannon/Kline at RG. As long as the 2 of them aren't together again, and the receiving options are more on page with Brady, I think we'll see those 40 sacks come down pretty dramatically to around 25 or so, maybe the high 20s at worst. I think we may be able to get by with IOL in the mid rounds myself.

I agree with just taking BPA, even though we do have a bit of a "need" at TE, DL, and LB just as well.

As you said in another post, I'd be happy with Shazier. I'd also be happy with one of the DL choices as well, or even possibly the TE selection of our choice before he's off the board when we pick at 62.

I'd be tempted to wait until the 3rd round for the center/guard choice, maybe even the 4th depending on how the board falls.

Click to expand...

Sup, i was just going by all things being equal, i.e..I wasn't looking at the most pragmatic approach to this draft or any draft but what I see as the biggest needs right now. Given Gronk's injury history and their need to have to high quality TE's to properly run this offense the way they want to I have TE as their biggest need, at the end of last season the cupboard was bare at the position and it is almost going to be impossible for them to win a Super Bowl without at least one, and their chances improve dramatically if they have both and the offense is fully functioning.

The reason i had center 2nd is because i think a good one could come in and start right away, wendell is serviceable but is really a back-up and good defenses are going to have him in Brady's lap at the snap. OG is also a need but to me Connolly is much better as a starter than Wendell is and the new OL coach may not be as resistant to starting Cannon at guard as Scarnecchia was.

Overall i am a BPA person but need is clearly a factor and because there are only a couple of dynamic TE's in this draft I have Sefarian-Jenkins higher than i would like, however depending upon how this draft falls i am fine with them taking Shazier and a number of others. and then Fiedorowicz or Niklas later, my concern is that they will also go higher and they will end up shut out at the position other than a flyer on a late rounder.Like you there are a number of positions i would be fine with in the first it really depends more upon the player but i still take need into it and TE/LB would be my priorities when things aren't equal.

As for the interior OL, I believe you were the one who pointed out that they have never gone interior OL before the fourth and I think that there is little to no chance they use a first on on e in this draft unless it is a tackle like martin and they are going to pull a Mankins with him and make him a starting guard, in which case they could move Connolly back to center if need be.

I still see DE, DT, WR, and SS as needs but unlike many here I am not drafting so much for 2015 as i am 2014, with the rising cap, free agency, and next year's draft they can fill lesser needs later if they havve to, right now i would put the most pressing needs first as long as they aren't really reaching for them, in which case i would go BPA and fill as many overall needs as possible with the players they believe will become the best pro's, which ultimately is the primary goal of building the roster.

For me it's TE and it's not even close.

Any other position even with the best player in the draft will give us the benefits of a good player in that position.

TE on the other hand will give us some extras:
- Red Zone efficiency will increase
- First down % will increase
- Offense staying on the field longer
- The mismatches, nightmare for opposite defenses will be back

I know you can point some of those items are valid for a Center too, but we have seem last season the difference a TE makes in this team, we have the complete picture, without TE, with TE, and then again without. It's proven. Ok it was Gronk, but he was not playing at his best, he was kind of limited due to his cast and also getting back slowly.

And also I keep my opinion that any other position are more or less addressed, there are players and some depth, even if it's not what we wish, but TE there are no players, only Gronk recovering from major surgery and Hooman who is garbage. DJ Willians will have a hard time to make the 53 man roster.

rob1984 said:

Joe,

Great post and thoughts. I've heard there could be day one starters drafted in the 3rd or 4th round this year ( some positions.) So, do you think those two players you mentioned are first round talent, or can Bill get equal value later in the draft?

I think linebacker in our number priority this year. Can someone call Bill and tell him to watch some Green Bay Packer's tape (Matthews) and stop running half marathons. The 2009 NFL Draft is still bothering me.

Click to expand...

Ever watch the A FOOTBALL LIFE-BILL BELICHICK? It shows Belichick doing his daily treadmill, and he has markers and his notes in front of him and he is reading and marking them up while getting his cardio. Belichick probably had scouting reports downloaded to an I-Pod and listened to them for the entire run, the guy is a tireless worker who leaves no stone unturned.

1. DT
2. TE
3. C/RG
4. SS
5. DE
6. WR
7. LB

The Pats usually draft based on some combination of BPA and need. So if, say, the top SS on their board falls to them at #29, they'll probably grab him ahead of a DT. But, everything equal, that's the way I see their top needs. SS and LB might also be able to be integrated as one if the Pats are looking for a hybrid that can do both (which seems to be all the rage in the NFL right now).

EDIT: I've since had a change of heart and moved C/RG over SS.

I said it before;
Where's the beef - DL, OL, and I hope they are being chased by the best available WR or TE or Safety last 3 in any order but best value available.

Of course I would not loose sleep if one of the last three were picked ahead of the OL but I think we need to add some youth, beef and talent to our lines.

I agree that a world class TE (Gronk) can hit all these marks but don't think any TE in the draft will make a dramatic impact. That doesn't mean I don't see TE as a hole in the roster but don't see it as a early draft priority based on the talent available. If that makes sense..

varjao said:

For me it's TE and it's not even close.

Any other position even with the best player in the draft will give us the benefits of a good player in that position.

TE on the other hand will give us some extras:
- Red Zone efficiency will increase
- First down % will increase
- Offense staying on the field longer
- The mismatches, nightmare for opposite defenses will be back

I know you can point some of those items are valid for a Center too, but we have seem last season the difference a TE makes in this team, we have the complete picture, without TE, with TE, and then again without. It's proven. Ok it was Gronk, but he was not playing at his best, he was kind of limited due to his cast and also getting back slowly.

And also I keep my opinion that any other position are more or less addressed, there are players and some depth, even if it's not what we wish, but TE there are no players, only Gronk recovering from major surgery and Hooman who is garbage. DJ Willians will have a hard time to make the 53 man roster.

Click to expand...

KontradictioN said:

1. DT
2. TE
3. C/RG
4. SS
5. DE
6. WR
7. LB

The Pats usually draft based on some combination of BPA and need. So if, say, the top SS on their board falls to them at #29, they'll probably grab him ahead of a DT. But, everything equal, that's the way I see their top needs. SS and LB might also be able to be integrated as one if the Pats are looking for a hybrid that can do both (which seems to be all the rage in the NFL right now).

EDIT: I've since had a change of heart and moved C/RG over SS.

Click to expand...

Given the OP this is pretty close to how i see it, although i disagree on LB.. However once you look at the draft with all of the considerations things change significantly as you have to take into account the depth of the draft and strengths and weaknesses off the draft by position and round and create an overall draft strategy that takes those factors as well as need into account. I agree with those who say they need a top TE in this draft and there are only 4-5 of them so they will have to take on early. I think they need a Center and d a RG as well as help at LB, D, DE, WR and SS but doubt they can really address all of their needs in this draft, so they will have to evaluate what is left in free agency to bolster their roster while adding the best players they can get at those needs in this draft. And while i understand the position of those who feel they need to address future needs i think that the more pressing needs for this season have to trump future depth, and they will just have to address future needs in future free agency and drafts.

Totaling all the responses, I tally the consensus needs list as:

1. DL
2. TE
3. OL, with priority toward center
4. LB

Ivan said:

Sup, i was just going by all things being equal, i.e..I wasn't looking at the most pragmatic approach to this draft or any draft but what I see as the biggest needs right now. Given Gronk's injury history and their need to have to high quality TE's to properly run this offense the way they want to I have TE as their biggest need, at the end of last season the cupboard was bare at the position and it is almost going to be impossible for them to win a Super Bowl without at least one, and their chances improve dramatically if they have both and the offense is fully functioning.

The reason i had center 2nd is because i think a good one could come in and start right away, wendell is serviceable but is really a back-up and good defenses are going to have him in Brady's lap at the snap. OG is also a need but to me Connolly is much better as a starter than Wendell is and the new OL coach may not be as resistant to starting Cannon at guard as Scarnecchia was.

Overall i am a BPA person but need is clearly a factor and because there are only a couple of dynamic TE's in this draft I have Sefarian-Jenkins higher than i would like, however depending upon how this draft falls i am fine with them taking Shazier and a number of others. and then Fiedorowicz or Niklas later, my concern is that they will also go higher and they will end up shut out at the position other than a flyer on a late rounder.Like you there are a number of positions i would be fine with in the first it really depends more upon the player but i still take need into it and TE/LB would be my priorities when things aren't equal.

As for the interior OL, I believe you were the one who pointed out that they have never gone interior OL before the fourth and I think that there is little to no chance they use a first on on e in this draft unless it is a tackle like martin and they are going to pull a Mankins with him and make him a starting guard, in which case they could move Connolly back to center if need be.

I still see DE, DT, WR, and SS as needs but unlike many here I am not drafting so much for 2015 as i am 2014, with the rising cap, free agency, and next year's draft they can fill lesser needs later if they havve to, right now i would put the most pressing needs first as long as they aren't really reaching for them, in which case i would go BPA and fill as many overall needs as possible with the players they believe will become the best pro's, which ultimately is the primary goal of building the roster.

Click to expand...

Last time I looked Logan Mankins was drafted at a high pick in round 2. He is and has been a G since day 1. When Matt Light was drafted everyone thought of him as a G too.

Zack Martin or Joel Bitonio are college left tackles who at 6'4" are a little too small for tackle. BB says he wants flexibility in his players and drafts Left tackles Bitonio is called the best blocking OL in the draft, how good would he be at RG?. It frees Connolly to go back and compete at center. Light ,Solder, Mankins and Vollmer were higher picks and all started Day 1. Plus the OL is getting old; older than the DL. Its a good year for interior O linemen, so take advantage of that. Double dip in the 3rd or 4th with redshirt injury Brandon Thomas. You will have added needed youth and talent and hopefully solved the Offensive line problems. The PS guys on the roster add depth.

A Team with a Good Line always has Offense, regardless of the skill positions. .