How the Patriots should look at pick 29

Just some thoughts.

When you pick a player in round one you are looking for a 3 things.

1) Need - Does this player fit a need position for me?
2) Good Starter - Can this player start for my team and play at a high level.
3) Impact - Can this Starting playing make a big impact.

So first off we should ask ourselves what starting spots the Patriots generally have open.

TE - We use 2 generally making this a starting spot.
C - Wendell is not even average starting level
G - Connoly is okay but can be upgraded
SS - This spot is not really claimed but it is designed within our system to have generally have a true SS and kind of have a high safety and low safety. Also we have no idea how good Ryan could be as the 2nd S in our system. If he does it as well as he plays CB or better this spot might not even be open. Also Harmon showed promise and could turn out to be a serviceable starter. Either way this spot can easily be makeshift not making it s true need.

Other needs are DT, DE, LB, WR. However we currently have starting level players for all of those. DT is a tad questionable but the depth there is pretty good regardless. And it is very possible a DT draft pick at 29 would not see starting minutes.

So when you look at the starting spots which are open for sure (TE, C, G, SS) no one really falls in our range at 29 to hit the 3 keys i posted.

TE (besides Ebron who shouldn't fall) has no prospect in that range worth taking. Same for Center. SS does but like i said that can be easily makeshift and we potentially have our starters anyway. G is a need and we could get a guy to start. However it is hard for a G to have a big impact. I do not see a guy we can take as good as Mankins which is about the worst quality guard i would want if we used a first round pick on one. Not to mention Connolly though upgradable is at least serviceable.

The point is this. No one at pick 29 truly makes sense for us to pick. There is not "Chandler Jones" when you have a clear need, a player is there that can fill it & start and make a big impact. That is really not available to us.

That is the reason you see so many different players mocked to us. Because no player in our range really makes sense. I think the Patriots know this as well. However, if that is the cause the question becomes what do we do about it?

The only player on the board that fits all 3 keys for use is Ebron - TE. Everyone else is either a key backup/rotation player or is just really good and upgrade a already decent player or is a reach (like drafting one of the Centers at 29). This does not mean I am saying we should break the bank to take Ebron. In fact I am very much against that idea. I just think it illustrates how out of play our first pick is in this draft.

So what are we to do about this? Well there really isn't much we can do. Here are our options.

#1 Do a modest trade up for Ebron if he is there. (say pick #29 & #130 or less... I would not give up more). This is an option i could live with but wouldn't love. I hate giving up picks in a draft this deep but Ebron is a player which could have a true first round impact for us.

#2 Take BPA at a secondary need. To me this means LB, DE, DT or WR. The only players on my board here are in order Ealy, Shazier, Hageman, Lee. That is it. I see them as true first round talents that could make an impact for us and really solidify a spot on our roster but it wouldn't have the true impact you want in a first rounder cause there is no vacant starting spot for them.

#3 Try to trade up for a Tier 1 prospect if they fall to 15 or lower. This I don't love either. None of the tier 1 prospects are true needs for us and would just be great additions to a spot that is already okay.

#4 Trade down. This is probably the option which makes the most sense. This puts our picks more in line with our needs and prospect projections. It is probably the best value move.

#5 Pick a QB if one falls. This is am against. The only 2 QBs i like at all in this draft are Bortles and Carr and both should be gone by 29. If they are not then you take a QB and sit on him for 4 years. This is not giving your team the best chance to win this year which is a very good opportunity and maybe our best one of Brady's last years.

#6 Trade this pick into next years draft. This I like more than option 5. If the right offer could be had this would be interesting. Again it hurts you this year. Would rather not.

None of these are ideal obviously. However to me the best options are far and away #1 #2 & #4. I would think the Patriots are probably thinking the same thing.

Re: # 4 - Trade Down.
I think the Pats/ BB have a reputation for liking to wheel and deal. I wonder if teams will try and low ball us knowing that the Pats like to trade down and get more picks. If the scenario presents itself I hope that a feeding frenzy develops (like QB's falling) and that several teams are looking to trade up and that we hold out for a good deal. I don't want to see us trade back 25 spots for an additional 6th round pick or something stupid like that.

The Patriots should look at the 29th pick as the spot where they can select the best available offensive or defensive lineman on their board. The Patriots have aging players where it matters most - in the trenches.

#29 is effectively a high 2nd rounder, and if they can trade down to pick up a second second round pick, getting an OL and a DL to add youth and depth on both lines in the top 60 picks is the way to go. By trading out of the first round they should be able to get two more late round picks in 2014 and/or 2015.

BobDigital said:

Just some thoughts.

When you pick a player in round one you are looking for a 3 things.

1) Need - Does this player fit a need position for me?
2) Good Starter - Can this player start for my team and play at a high level.
3) Impact - Can this Starting playing make a big impact.

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Your reasoning makes a lot of sense based on your assumptions, but unfortunately I can't get on board with the assumptions! Your whole post takes 2014 roster needs as the starting point, the lens through which you evaluate options for pick #29. That's totally opposite to how I look at round-1 picks.

When I pick a player in round one, I am looking for 4 things:

1a) Confidence -- Considering the prospect's skill level, frame and athleticism, injury history and mental makeup, do I feel confident they can become a productive NFL player?
1b) Ceiling -- Assuming all goes well, does this prospect have special qualities that could make him a true impact player?
3) Rarity -- How likely is it to find similar strengths and attributes in prospects later in the draft? How pricey are comparable free agents?
4) Position -- How important is the talent at this position to what I want my team to achieve on the field? How much of an upgrade should he represent over the course of his rookie contract?

An extreme and focused positional need can make #4 a dominant consideration, but by and large I don't narrow by position until I've considered all the rest. For this year's Patriots you can make a case for many different positions as ranking in the top tier of positional needs, so I'm mostly looking for impact athletes.

I think this priority list yields dramatically different results. For instance, Nate Solder was drafted to a position with two incumbent starters, which would have have kept him off an immediate-need screen. But he was a rare athlete with a high ceiling at an important and hard-to-fill position due to be open after his rookie year.

patchick said:

Your reasoning makes a lot of sense based on your assumptions, but unfortunately I can't get on board with the assumptions! Your whole post takes 2014 roster needs as the starting point.

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I have to agree. BB is not thinking so much about 2014. I think BB is looking at potential 2015 starters who can provide depth in 2014 when he selects.

For instance when he selected Collins, he was looking for depth in 2013 knowing he had potential departures in Spikes and Fletcher after the 2013 season. So BB viewed Collins as depth for 2013 and as a potential starter for 2014.

PS: If Spikes and/or Fletcher returned for 2014, then BB gets another desired outcome. Competition for playing time.

I disagree slightly with your overall premise. I don't think the 1st round is a place where you particularly pick for need. That is how you get in trouble and start reaching.

When we talk about need, I think you've ignored the fact that Bill's history in the 1st round is generally picking a player a year ahead of when they will be needed. Wilfork, Maroney, Merriweather, Solder are good examples of this. We already had Traylor, Dillon, Rodney and Light ahead of them at the time but they took over the starting job the year after. You could kind of make the same argument for Mayo with Tedy too.

So, I think we could legitimately look at one of a number of areas this year. If we follow this strategy, I think a DT to take over from Vince/Kelly or a guard/centre are possibilities. Theoretically it also brings corner into the mix if Bill really thinks Revis is here on a one year rental, or running back (though probably too high).

What I think Bill looks for in his 1st round picks are "safe" picks. The 1st round isn't a time to gamble on a projection. I can't think of a player he has done that with in his time here. He looks to see how guys compare with those currently on the roster and he looks for players who can be cornerstones of his team for the next 10 years.

He may not always take the flashy player but he takes a real solid, high character starter.

So I would not be shocked to seem him take Louis Nix or Weston Richburg. An outside possibility is Demarcus Lawrence who by all accounts is a high character kid who can learn behind Nink for a year and then eventually take over.

I think my requirements for any draft would be finding the best available player that meets our immediate needs and needs for the following season. In other words, upgrade now and next year. 1st rounders should only be spent on immediate upgrades and day one starters. 2nd & 3rd rounders should contribute this year and be in position to challenge for starting in year 2. Rounds 4 & 5 are depth and/or players who have the potential to be serious contributors who fell in the draft because of injury or off field issues. 6-7 are fliers on players who may be from smaller programs or may be players who have special team potential - speed guys or size guys that could contribute a limited role now and in the future, but if they were to develop beyond their profiled limitations. For example, a skinny QB without much arm strength who does everything too slow, but has serious leadership & heart.

With these in mind, I think we'll trade down from 29 unless a real gem falls to us that BB feels is worth the multiple players we'd pick up through the trade. I think they'll be opportunities since teams will look to chase QB or WR prospects who fall below where they have them rated.

My wishes for the draft are to add a pass rusher, a larger center, a NT, a SS, a bruiser RB and/or a very fast RB/WR. I'm not sure on LB candidates, but I wouldn't be unhappy with a good ILB or OLB.

zimmy said:

I disagree slightly with your overall premise. I don't think the 1st round is a place where you particularly pick for need. That is how you get in trouble and start reaching.

When we talk about need, I think you've ignored the fact that Bill's history in the 1st round is generally picking a player a year ahead of when they will be needed. Wilfork, Maroney, Merriweather, Solder are good examples of this. We already had Traylor, Dillon, Rodney and Light ahead of them at the time but they took over the starting job the year after. You could kind of make the same argument for Mayo with Tedy too.

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Agreed, though the obvious 2015 hole is RB which doesn't happen to be a round-1 consideration this year. Oh, and backup QB, of course!

What I think Bill looks for in his 1st round picks are "safe" picks. The 1st round isn't a time to gamble on a projection. I can't think of a player he has done that with in his time here.

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There I have to disagree. On draft day, Nate Solder and Chandler Jones were both considered ultra-raw projections with rare size and and athleticism.

patchick said:

There I have to disagree. On draft day, Nate Solder and Chandler Jones were both considered ultra-raw projections with rare size and and athleticism.

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The new 1st round drafting requirement buzzing around Patriots headquarters seems to be ultra athletic athletes with size. BB will have a couple of very interesting options available at the end of the first round to select from.

It now appears that every team from #21 to #32 is ready to deal their first rounder to a QB needy team that smartly passes on a QB at the top of the draft, so BB's trading options may be slimmer than expected.

Ochmed Jones said:

The new 1st round drafting requirement buzzing around Patriots headquarters seems to be ultra athletic athletes with size. BB will have a couple of very interesting options available at the end of the first round to select from.

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Interesting exercise to go with those criteria first and foremost and see what the prospect list looks like. Something like:

Ra'shede Hageman
Allen Robinson
Stephon Tuitt
Joel Bitonio

Would you add Ryan Shazier to that list? Maybe not freakishly big but he is some kind of fast...

Well i am glad that got the conversation going.

Here are a list of all the Patriots first round picks in the BB era with position & year

Seymour - DT #6 -01
Graham - TE #21 - 02
Warren - DT #13 - 03
Wilfork - NT #21 - 04
Watson - TE #32 - 04
Mankins - OG #32 - 05
Maroney - RB #21 - 06
Meriwhether - S #24 - 07
Mayo - LB #10 - 08
McCourty - CB/S #27 - 10
Solder - OT #17 - 11
Jones - DE #21 - 12
Hightower - LB #25 -12

TheRazorsEdge said:

Would you add Ryan Shazier to that list? Maybe not freakishly big but he is some kind of fast...

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Absolutely! I only left him off because he seems to be out of reach on more and more mocks. Given that his measurables are on par with the best cornerbacks in the draft, I think Shazier's size is very good indeed.

There I have to disagree. On draft day, Nate Solder and Chandler Jones were both considered ultra-raw projections with rare size and and athleticism.

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I'm respectfully disagree with your disagreement. Solder and Jones were both Seniors with 3 years of starting experience. Solder, I felt, was an extremely safe projection --from Big 12 left tackle to NFL left tackle.

Jones was a little more of a projection, just because he played mostly DT at Syracuse. But moving undersized DTs to DE in the NFL has been SOP for over a decade now.

I agree that there's no need to spend a 1st on a RB. I also think Vereen is a slam dunk to get re-signed.

As gets discussed every year at this time, my belief is that need is but one part of the value matrix. If we were simply to draft by need, the pick would be safety, tight end, or defensive end. However, when blended with other criteria, I'm starting to come around on the idea of Sua Filo with their first pick. I cannot see the paying Mankins his salary next year, and I have a hard time seeing Mankins take less.

It's markedly unsexy, but I can see it happening depending on who's available at 29. My preference would be to take one of Ealy, Mosley, or Shazier in the first and come back with Yankey in the second....as much as Yankeys don't belong in the New England sports scene.

dryheat44 said:

I'm respectfully disagree with your disagreement. Solder and Jones were both Seniors with 3 years of starting experience. Solder, I felt, was an extremely safe projection --from Big 12 left tackle to NFL left tackle.

Jones was a little more of a projection, just because he played mostly DT at Syracuse. But moving undersized DTs to DE in the NFL has been SOP for over a decade now.

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Very fair points. I was talking about how they were commonly portrayed in draft analyses at the time -- as intriguing physical specimens who hadn't made as big an impact on the field as their athleticism suggested. But they did have solid college experience.

I'm starting to come around on the idea of Sua Filo with their first pick. I cannot see the paying Mankins his salary next year, and I have a hard time seeing Mankins take less.

It's markedly unsexy, but I can see it happening depending on who's available at 29.

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I've had the same thoughts, but with Joel Bitonio as the target.

Where do people stand on Kareem Martin @29 or as first pick? He has perfect size, length and athleticism and plays in a very disciplined way. And when he does turn it on, can dominate when he converts speed to power. Plays LDE, RDE and looks to offer something inside. In a poor DE class, I'm really coming round to Martin. Thinks he gets better in the NFL, played too much on a 3 man front at UNC.

manxman2601 said:

Where do people stand on Kareem Martin @29 or as first pick? He has perfect size, length and athleticism and plays in a very disciplined way. And when he does turn it on, can dominate when he converts speed to power. Plays LDE, RDE and looks to offer something inside. In a poor DE class, I'm really coming round to Martin. Thinks he gets better in the NFL, played too much on a 3 man front at UNC.

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I like Martin and am OK with him as a first pick...provided our first pick is in the 40s.

As much as I like him, I'd rather take him in the 60s. I like Ealy in the first over Martin in the second, but if Ealy's not available and we go with Sua Filo or Sefarian Jenkins in the first, Martin makes a lot of sense. In my ever-mutating mental mock draft, I think we could do a lot worse than Ealy-Yankey-Fiedorowicz after Day Two.

dryheat44 said:

I think we could do a lot worse than Ealy-Yankey-Fiedorowicz after Day Two.

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I cannot imagine how.

dryheat44 said:

I like Martin and am OK with him as a first pick...provided our first pick is in the 40s.

As much as I like him, I'd rather take him in the 60s. I like Ealy in the first over Martin in the second, but if Ealy's not available and we go with Sua Filo or Sefarian Jenkins in the first, Martin makes a lot of sense. In my ever-mutating mental mock draft, I think we could do a lot worse than Ealy-Yankey-Fiedorowicz after Day Two.

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I see the logic behind Ealy and want to like him, but every time I watch, I just don't see it. That's probably a personal blind spot but I just can't get on with Ealy. I'm not a fan of Yankey either I'm afraid, I really don't like the value there but I'd be very much on board with the Fiedorowicz pick.