FO Film Study from December 2013: Brady in decline.

BREAKING NEWS!!!! PROOF BRADY IS IN DECLINE!!!!



oh well....guess the Pats are through...I think I'll post a "Bob Kraft Is A Horrible Dog Owner!" thread...

Mike the Brit said:

Moreover ... as a quarterback gets older, he can't move around so well. That's apparent. But he CAN be a coach on the field. And that loads things in favour of the no-huddle/hurry-up. Clearly, his inexperienced receivers didn't let the Patriots make use of that as much as they had in previous years. With an extra year in the system and (let's hope) a healthy Amendola and Gronk, who knows ...

Click to expand...

i would like to point out that the no-huddle/hurry-up offense was almost always run plays, completely opposite of 2 years ago, of course the personal experience around Brady was completely different.

patsfanboy said:

i would like to point out that the no-huddle/hurry-up offense was almost always run plays, completely opposite of 2 years ago, of course the personal experience around Brady was completely different.

Click to expand...

Isn't that my point? The super-quick catch-them-off-balance-with-short-pass hurry-up wasn't there last year.

Mike the Brit said:

Isn't that my point? The super-quick catch-them-off-balance-with-short-pass hurry-up wasn't there last year.

Click to expand...

Hopefully it's back next season and with a vengeance! No huddle 2.0 more speed, more home run plays then hand it over to that secondary the team has now to turn it right back over to Brady & co.

I think we need to cut Brady...AFC title game appearances just don't cut it for me anymore

With Ryan Wendell allowing pressure consistently up the middle and Mankins and Connolly having to cover for his garbage play certainly didn't help. Did his miss some throws, absolutely. Did he make throws that required Herculean efforts by receivers to be caught, numerous times. I still don't believe he's in decline...yet.

It's not an accident that NFL players mostly fall within a certain age range. Brady is, probably, outside the range. And being outside that range almost certainly means his ability to perform at his highest QB potential is ebbing. In other breaking news the sky is blue and taxes must be paid.

To be a super bowl competitive team it's BB & staff's job to determine what 2014 Tom Brady is capable of contributing reliably (which is X), build that part of the team (passing offense) as well as the overall road map to victory based on that X, and Brady performs that X with a level of reliability. So while the whole film breakdown about what Brady is or isn't, his age, about missing throws at times/situations may be good fodder it isn't particularly germane. The question/answer breakdown that is most germane is: (1) is the X that BB and staff estimate/require from Brady sufficient enough to make a viable super bowl competitive team? IMHO it's obvious that BB and staff expect a significantly above QB average contribution from Brady -- one that even allows for below average contribution from other components of the team. (2) Can Brady contribute that X with an above average reliability level (regardless of if he misses throws sometimes or even more often than when he was age 28)? IMHO the answer is clearly yes considering the well above average success of the Patriots fielding a super bowl competitive team.

Unfortunately Brady's time will likely draw to a close in the next few years (to quote a movie, "we all got it comin kid"). His contribution level(X) will ebb to a point it's time to have another player be the starting QB. However, if basing it on 2013's performance, the X Brady will contribute in 2014 will be super bowl contention worthy and markedly above average for an NFL QB.

Danger Zone said:

Yup, that's exactly what I'm thinking.

I believe Moss was the last receiver that Brady trusted to do this. And we know Moss did exactly this because sometimes he wasn't very subtle about it. I still remember him smiling after breaking up an Int or two.

Click to expand...

I'll never forget the long TD catch Moss made against a double team vs Miami (?). He had his back to the ball and while fending off a defender with his left arm, he caught the pass in the crook of his right elbow. I've never seen anything like it and can't see how I ever will again.

When you have a WR like Randy Moss you can pretty much throw up anything and he'll probably come down with it. That has to help a less accurate long passer, and our boy Tommy LomBrady is definitely one of those.

bostonia3333 said:

I think we need to cut Brady...AFC title game appearances just don't cut it for me anymore

Click to expand...

That's right. Brady hasn't gotten us to a SB since way back in 2012.

And don't forget Belichick. They need to fire his dumb *** too.

The thing that separates Brady from most other QBs is he doesn't make the really bad play at the worst time... ever. He doesn't let his ego get in the way and force a ball. Besides having the ability to win games in big situations, he also has an uncanny knack for not losing them. That is why he is who he is.

I remember so many times where Drew would have the team in a good position late in a game, only to try and force the ball and turn it over. Sometimes it's best to just hand the ball off to someone else and let them do their job.

Most good or great QBs have so much confidence in themselves and it can work against them. We don't have that problem with Brady. His brain is bigger than his ego.

1960Pats said:

I'll never forget the long TD catch Moss made against a double team vs Miami (?). He had his back to the ball and while fending off a defender with his left arm, he caught the pass in the crook of his right elbow. I've never seen anything like it and can't see how I ever will again.

When you have a WR like Randy Moss you can pretty much throw up anything and he'll probably come down with it. That has to help a less accurate long passer, and our boy Tommy LomBrady is definitely one of those.

Click to expand...

So did all the QB's who had not just a receiver like Moss but actual Moss manage to toss him 23TD passes? Moss probably caught 30 or so TD passes when he was playing with more accurate long passers. All the accurate long passers must have all sorts of yardage and TD records. Too bad Randy had to waste 3 years with Brady or he might have put up some decent stats.

KontradictioN said:

This is an interesting, if not depressing, read. Not sure I fully agree with it. With all he had to deal with at WR, TE (or lack thereof), and interior OL, I think it's impossible to determine whether or not Brady is in decline already. Whether he is or is not should become more clear when the team gives him a few more weapons and the WR's we currently field come of age. He did make some bad decisions, but what quarterback doesn't? That said, Football Outsiders did a film study that started with breaking down his deep passing accuracy and then broke it down a bit more from there. I'll highlight some key parts...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Tom Brady






I don't particularly agree with this.





Just to note, there's no comparison to other quarterbacks in this article, but it's still a somewhat interesting, albeit flawed, read. Each breakdown they do of him comes with All-22 stills that break down the play.

Click to expand...

These Football Outsider guys are a little big for their britches. I appreciate what they try to do, which is to take a scientific, empirical approach to judging players rather than just echo popular impressions, but they seem to lack a sound understanding of the game at times.

I remember a 'critique' they did of Ted Washington--was he really the demon run-stuffer we all assumed he was? They concluded no because they found too many plays in one game in which he did nothing. They watched the tape and yeah, sure, he did nothing... on quick passes, on outside runs, basically any offensive play in which a NT has no chance of really doing anything. The fact that the offensive play-calling in that game seemed to want no part of Ted Washington didn't factor into the FO analysis.

This analysis of Brady is worse, as the very first post in the comments section explains well (plus, I question the Amendola example. How do we know Brady wasn't throwing to a point on the field, and Danny simply didn't reach it? It's clearly a hole in the zone).

Jercules said:

These Football Outsider guys are a little big for their britches. I appreciate what they try to do, which is to take a scientific, empirical approach to judging players rather than just echo popular impressions, but they seem to lack a sound understanding of the game at times.

I remember a 'critique' they did of Ted Washington--was he really the demon run-stuffer we all assumed he was? They concluded no because they found too many plays in one game in which he did nothing. They watched the tape and yeah, sure, he did nothing... on quick passes, on outside runs, basically any offensive play in which a NT has no chance of really doing anything. The fact that the offensive play-calling in that game seemed to want no part of Ted Washington didn't factor into the FO analysis.

This analysis of Brady is worse, as the very first post in the comments section explains well (plus, I question the Amendola example. How do we know Brady wasn't throwing to a point on the field, and Danny simply didn't reach it? It's clearly a hole in the zone).

Click to expand...

I'm usually a big fan of FO. This is a case, though, where they put out a really horse**** article, and I'm not going to sugarcoat their screw up just because I normally like the site. This was the sort of "just close enough to be terrible" analysis that PFF devolved into doing.

1960Pats said:

I'll never forget the long TD catch Moss made against a double team vs Miami (?). He had his back to the ball and while fending off a defender with his left arm, he caught the pass in the crook of his right elbow. I've never seen anything like it and can't see how I ever will again.

When you have a WR like Randy Moss you can pretty much throw up anything and he'll probably come down with it. That has to help a less accurate long passer, and our boy Tommy LomBrady is definitely one of those.

Click to expand...

In his prime, Brady was a much better long passer than people gave - or give - him credit for. I'm not certain he's still got the same touch on his long ball, but to say it was just Randy Moss isn't at all fair. He was doing it when his home run ball was going to David Patten or Deion Branch.

Brady at 70% is better than 95% of NFL quarterbacks. Give him a healthy Gronk and that is enough.

So if Brady comes out firing on all cylinders this September will there be a new article titled

BRADY BETTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF STOPPING?

it is ridiculous to come to such an judgement ,people have up and down moments all though out their career.

thenepatsrule said:

So if Brady comes out firing on all cylinders this September will there be a new article titled

BRADY BETTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF STOPPING?

it is ridiculous to come to such an judgement ,people have up and down moments all though out their career.

Click to expand...

It's not just that everyone has ups and downs. It's that everyone knew his numbers were likely to fall because of the massive turnover at WR. That wasn't even including the losses of AHern and Gronk. This article essentially says "Everyone knew that Brady would probably struggle with this group, especially when the group got even worse than originally expected, and Brady did struggle, so he must be in decline".

It's some of the worst analysis I've ever seen on a QB, and it's from a site that usually excellent. I hope this doesn't become a habit for FO.

slow news day...take shot at Patriots...Brady or Belechick...get hits...move on to a new day.

Deus Irae said:

It's not just that everyone has ups and downs. It's that everyone knew his numbers were likely to fall because of the massive turnover at WR. That wasn't even including the losses of AHern and Gronk. This article essentially says "Everyone knew that Brady would probably struggle with this group, especially when the group got even worse than originally expected, and Brady did struggle, so he must be in decline".

It's some of the worst analysis I've ever seen on a QB, and it's from a site that usually excellent. I hope this doesn't become a habit for FO.

Click to expand...

Worst QB analysis? That's a lofty title for a profession, sports media, whose base requirements are a pulse and access to the Internet....... but you're spot on. It's virtually axiomatic that the 2013 Patriots' passing game would have an overall negative effect on Brady's or any established QB's performance. It's such an obvious fact that using 2013 for a drawn out comparative analysis is strikingly egregious.

I suspect Brady's performance level has passed its peak based on the harsh reality of aging (not quantified -- just an assumption), but, IMHO, his 2013 performance if anything suggests he's still firmly in the neighborhood of his peak. How many QBs could have their targets/supporting cast changed/lessened to that high degree yet remain effective and win at that rate?

Yea Brady has never been able to throw it deep

Reche Caldwell 49 yard catch for Patriots against Chargers in 2006 AFC Playoff - YouTube