Knowshon Moreno ?

BelichickFan said:

And there goes Thornton as a reliable source.

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Deus Irae said:

I'm not going to hunt down which fumbles were on what kind of plays, because both are statistically non-receivers. If we changed "fumbles" to "touches", there would be little change, so I'm not going to go there.

Blount had 9 fumbles in his first 2 years, but only 3 in the next 2 seasons. He also has a higher YPC, both as a member of the Patriots and overall. So, for Blount, his fumble rate in years 1 and 2 was one fumble per 42.8 carries. In years 3 and 4, his fumble rate was one fumble per 64.7 carries.

Ridley, on the other hand, has gone in the opposite direction. In year 1, 87 carries and 1 fumble. In year 2, 1 fumble every 72.5 carries. In year 3, 1 fuble every 44.5 carries.

If you isolate Blount's last season, he was still fumbling once every 51 carries, which is better than Ridley.

Breaking things down that way, Blount is trending better than Ridley. The question is whether the trends are real, or just statistical noise.

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50-yard-line said:

There's a lot of statistical noise in stats like this, though, because we're talking so few fumbles...SSS.

For example, one of Ridley's fumbles last year happened on a short pass...

Steelers at Patriots: Troy Polamalu forces fumble

that cold have been called incomplete. In any case, I give that play more credit to Polamalu than a mistake by Ridley, who was simply hung out to dry. Take that fumble away and the stats change dramatically.

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BelichickFan said:

And there goes Thornton as a reliable source.

Too bad, I liked Moreno as a "do everything decently" guy to add to Ridley and Vereen.

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Dolphins agreed to terms with RB Knowshon Moreno, formerly of the Broncos, on a one-year contract.

According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, the deal is worth "about" $3 million. Moreno let a week pass between his visit and signing, but couldn't drum up any other interest. Although the Broncos were open to re-signing Moreno, he made no other visits. Teams saw through Moreno's Peyton Manning-inflated stats, but he's still a solid signing for a Dolphins team that had one of the league's worst backfields last season. Moreno gets what's blocked, catches passes and holds his own in blitz pick up. There's a strong chance he enters Week 1 as the Dolphins' No. 1 running back. Daniel Thomas is on the hot seat.

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