The Pats have made substantial changes to the back end of their defense with the acquisitions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, but have yet to address the front end. They've passed up a lot of options in free agency.
Thinking more about what a defensive front end would look like that would create the greatest potential, I keep thinking conceptually of a 5 man "base" DL with a NT flanked by 2 "3 techs" flanked by 2 "edge rushers". Seattle used this "Bear" formation quite a bit:
One of Pete Carroll’s favorite tweaks to this front is to reduce the five-technique (Bryant) down to a three-technique and play what’s known as a "Bear" front (named after the Mike Ditka/Buddy Ryan Bears).
Muth read: The Seahawks and multiple defensive fronts - SBNation.com
Big-T in particular has been a strong proponent of the potential advantageous of overloading on the DL in combination with a dominant secondary. There are several advantages to this approach:
1. It is very strong against the run. With a big NT like Wilfork/Siliga in the middle and 2 DTs on each side flanked by a DE on each side, you have 5 men on the line and terrific run stopping ability.
2. You can generate tremendous pressure up front. You can crash either or both 3-tech with a big NT like Wilfork or Siliga to plug the middle, as well as create pressure from the edges.
3. You have terrific versatility to morph into various hybrid fronts, including 4 man, 3 man, and semi-ameboid formations.
However, this approach puts pressure on the LBs, who must be able to cover a lot of ground and be effective in coverage. The emergence of Jamie Collins is one of the keys in allowing this kind of approach to be effective, but another rangy coverage LB is needed.
Based on this, I would target the following:
Defensive Draft Picks:
- Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh. I would trade up to get Donald if at all possible, as he is the most disruptive defender in the draft.
Alternative: If the Pats can't trade up for Donald, then Dominique Easley is the best option as a disruptive 3-tech.
- Dominique Easley, DE/DT, Florida. I would actually double up with Donald and Easley - they would create tremendous disruption and chaos, particularly with Wilfork sandwiched in the middle.
Alternative: Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt isn't as explosive or disruptive as Easley, but he would still be effective.
- Christian Jones, LB, Florida St. A versatile LB with great explosiveness and coverage ability is badly needed.
Alternative: Jordan Tripp.
- Antone Exum, DB, Virginia Tech. A big CB/S hybrid who can play press-man or in the box.
Alternative: If Exum is gone I would probably go for a hybrid LB/S like Kevin Pierre-Louis.
UDFAs/PS Candidates:
These are developmental guys who I wouldn't see contributing in 2014, but with long term potential. They might be signed as UDFAs, or signed to the PS at roster cut down time.
- Terrance Fede, DE, Marist
- Ben Gardner, DE, Stanford
- Zach Moore, DE, Concordia
- Larry Webster, DE, Bloomsburg
- Zach Kerr, DT, Delaware
- Jonathan Dowling, DB, Western Kentucky
Defensive Roster:
Because of the flexibility of so many players to play different positions, I am avoiding traditional positional classifications but rather list some of the roles a player might be expected to play.
1. Chandler Jones (RDE, Elephant)
3. Vince Wilfork (NT)
3. Aaron Donald/Dominique Easley (3-tech)
4. Dominique Easley/Stephon Tuitt (3-tech, 5-tech, LDE)
5. Rob Ninkovich (LDE, LB)
6. Dont'a Hightower (LDE, MLB, SAM)
7. Jerod Mayo (WILL, MLB)
8. Jamie Collins (SAM, WILL, LEO/sub rusher)
9. Michael Buchanan (RDE, Elephant, LEO/sub rusher)
10. Christian Jones/Jordan Tripp (WILL, MLB, SAM, LEO/sub rusher)
11. Tommy Kelly (3 tech, 5 tech)
12. Sealver Siliga (NT)
13. Armond Armstead (3-tech, 5-tech, LDE)
14. Chris Jones (3-tech)
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15. Devin McCourty (FS)
16. Darrelle Revis (CB)
17. Brandon Browner (CB/S)
18. Alfonzo Dennard (CB)
19. Logan Ryan (CB/S)
20. Antone Exum (S/CB)
21. Duron Harmon (FS)
22. Kyle Arrington (dime CB)
23. Tavon Wilson (SS, LB/S, STer)
24. Nate Ebner (SS, STer)
With the above 24 man defensive roster the Pats would have tremendous ability to combine different back end coverage schemes with different front end pressure schemes, depending on the opponent and the game-specific goals. For simplicity purposes, I divide things into a "5-2-4 base" which can morph into different formations, and a "sub package" which adds a secondary player and optimizes pass rushing over run stopping.
Base "5-2-4":
Ninkovich/Hightower - Easley(/Tuitt) - Wilfork - Donald(/Easley) - Cha. Jones
Hightower/Ninkovich - Armstead/Kelly - Siliga - Chr. Jones/Kelly - Buchanan
Collins - Mayo
Hightower-Chrst. Jones(/Tripp)
Revis - Dennard - McCourty - Browner
Notes:
1. In a 5-2 base you have a penetrating 3-tech on either side of a NT, flanked by an edge rusher. That scheme provides tremendous pressure up front, which will create opportunities for the back 6, but is also difficult to run against. Easley and Donald are too quick for any interior OL to handle, and having Vince Wilfork crashing the middle will make them even more effective, and open up opportunities for Jones and Ninkovich outside.
2. The roster is at least 2 deep at each position in the front 7, guarding against injury. The goal should also be to rotate players even when healthy, and keep people fresh.
3. While the scheme is nominally called a "5-2-4 base", in reality it is a hybrid scheme that can fluidly morph between different formations without changing personnel to provide versatility and create confusion. Either Hightower or Ninkovich can drop back to LB (either MLB or SAM) in the base, converting it to a 4-3 under with Easley/Armstead as the LDE. Ninkovich and Hightower will probably end up dividing snaps between the DE and LB positions. Chandler Jones (or even Aaron Donald) can also stand up in an "elephant" role, converting to a 3 man front. Even more amorphous fronts are possible, include semi-ameboid formations, with the NT being the only player who is not truly interchangeable.
4. Christian Jones/Jordan Tripp provide depth behind Jerod Mayo, versatility to play MLB or WILL, and speed and coverage ability. Both Jones/Tripp and Jamie Collins can blitz off the edges as well. The LBs can ideally function as part of either the front end or back end of the defense. Mayo, Collins, Hightower, Ninkovich and Jones/Tripp all have tremendous flexibility in this regard. Mayo, like Wilfork, is an "anchor" with less versatility than the other guys, but he will function as the "glue" and as the defensive signal caller.
5. Devin McCourty is the "glue" of the back end, functioning as a single high FS and captain for the secondary. He will allow Revis, Browner and Dennard to all play aggressive press-man coverage. Cover-1 and Cover-3 will be the predominant coverage schemes, with some Cover 7; zone coverage (Cover-2 and Cover-4) will be used at times to confuse things, but in a lesser role.
6. There is no single dedicated SS. Exum and Browner could be used interchangeably as big press-man CBs who can drop down into a SS role. Tavon Wilson (or Kevin Pierre-Louis) could also play a SS or LB/S hybrid role. Alfonzo Dennard can be substituted as a 3rd CB. Again, one of the goals is to create confusion and exploit mismatches.
7. I believe that Aaron Donald and Dominique Easley would provide the maximal disruptive combination up front. Those 2 guys would be the lynchpins of my draft strategy. However, if either of those is not attainable, Stephon Tuitt would be my alternative. He could substitute for Easley at the 3/5 tech / LDE position, and if Aaron Donald was gone then Easley could slot to the 3-tech position. As long as I can get 2 of those 3 guys I think things will work fine.
8. Although this is a "base" formation, Jamie Collins gives terrific coverage ability. The combination of Collins and Christian Jones would actually give the Pats tremendous range and coverage from the LB group, and would decrease the need for a traditional "safety". Both Collins and Jones would be effective blitzing off the edge as well.
Sub Defense:
Ninkovich/Hightower - DT - Donald(/Easley) - Cha. Jones
(Hightower/Ninkovich - DT - Chr. Jones - Buchanan
Collins - Mayo
(Hightower - Chrst. Jones(/Tripp))
Revis - Browner - McCourty -Exum/Ryan - Dennard
Notes:
1. The basic switch is that one of the 3 DTs in the 5-2 base comes off the field for an extra DB. Because of the flexibility of the personnel, the sub defense could include anything from a 5-1-5 to a 1-4-6.
2. Most commonly this will be the NT, with 2 3-techs inside. However, it may be desirable to run a sub-package with the NT at times to keep teames from running too much.
3. Chandler Jones can kick inside in a 5-1-5 "NASCAR" package. This could be very difficult to defend with Collins/Buchanan coming off one edge and Ninkovich/Hightower off the other, and Mayo/Jones as the lone LB.
4. If the 5th DB is a "big nickel" back line Exum/Wilson then he would be functioning as a 2nd LB as well.
5. Alternatively, the 5th DB could be more of a coverage player like Logan Ryan or Kyle Arrington, giving maximum coverage ability.
Again, these are schematic simplifications, and just starting points. A creative defensive mind could create endless variations given the versatility and skill set of the defensive players.
