WR Depth Chart

Deus Irae · Mar 17, 2014

BradyFTW! said:
I agree - as long as the WR contracts that are being signed don't carry significant amounts of guaranteed money, I'm fine with it. If our rookies can't beat out FA JAGs for roster spots, then that just means that they suck anyway.

This is also why I don't necessarily consider it a failure when the Pats bring in FA JAG WRs on low/no guaranteed money, and then they end up not making the roster. For all the bellyaching around here about Michael Jenkins last year, he served his purpose. He set a bar that Kenbrell had to clear to make the roster. Clearly it wasn't a very high bar, considering that Kenbrell wasn't very good, but he did serve his purpose.

Michael Jenkins was a stiff. That was known before he was signed. By signing him, the team cost itself money (not much, but it's still money) and a roster sport that could have been spent on an unknown player. Had he made the roster, it would have highlighted just how bad the Patriots offseason was in terms of WRs. The team got lucky when it found Thompkins, because it changed the narrative, in the minds of many, from "WTF?" to "Cool, we got kids to develop!".

It's fine, important and necessary to bring in camp bodies. It's stupid, as a rule, to bring in lousy ceiling-established veterans who aren't going to be good enough to make it, unless you've already got better options on the roster.

Brady6 · Mar 17, 2014

mgteich said:
Well put!

I think that we all should understand that Belichick does (and should) allocate a certain amount of money for free agents who do not end up making the 53. These players serve their purpose. They provide camp competition and insurance against injuries. The signings are not mistakes. The money isn't wasted.

IMHO, if Boyce, Thompkins and Harrison can't beat these guys out, they don't deserve a roster spot. And yes, part of the valuation process is projected future value as well as current value.

The problem with that is it only focuses on 2014 and nothing beyond that. You take a player like Josh Boyce who just turned 24 years old, and has just one season in the NFL compared to a player like Danny Amendola who will turn 29 years old in the next football season and is entering his seventh NFL season. It is very likely that Amendola is going to be the better player in 2014, but will he be in 2015, 2016, and 2017? Boyce is a freakish talent who is very raw, but his upside is as intriguing as any player on the team, personally there is no way, that I would cut Boyce unless he pulled a Hernandez, that type of upside is not something you give up on. I am not saying I would cut Amendola; I would probably carry an extra WR and run with eight offensive lineman instead of nine at least early on.

BradyFTW! · Mar 17, 2014

Deus Irae said:
Michael Jenkins was a stiff. That was known before he was signed. By signing him, the team cost itself money (not much, but it's still money) and a roster sport that could have been spent on an unknown player. Had he made the roster, it would have highlighted just how bad the Patriots offseason was in terms of WRs. The team got lucky when it found Thompkins, because it changed the narrative, in the minds of many, from "WTF?" to "Cool, we got kids to develop!".

It's fine, important and necessary to bring in camp bodies. It's stupid, as a rule, to bring in lousy ceiling-established veterans who aren't going to be good enough to make it, unless you've already got better options on the roster.

Jenkins cost $15,000. In salary cap terms, that's not worthy of consideration. If I understand the cap correctly, then it didn't even get applied to the cap at all, since that's nowhere near enough to put him in the top 51. He also cost one roster spot out of 90. The roster spot argument was a lot more compelling to me before the last CBA expanded the roster size. I dunno who the 91st guy would have been, but I have a hard time believing that he would have offered any more to the team than Jenkins did.

Neither of those costs are significant enough to even be worth the 30 seconds that it takes to type out a complaint about them. In fact, I'd probably argue that the biggest cost associated with his signing was the team that the Patriots' FO and coaches spent reviewing his film, determining whether or not to offer him a contract, negotiating with him, and coaching him during the brief time that he was on the roster.

BradyBranch39 · Mar 17, 2014

I am hoping Lafell has very little of a signing bonus, but that his guaranteed $ kicks in IF he makes the 53 this year. Because I can easily see a scenario where he doesn't.

mgteich · Mar 17, 2014

I agree.

The word "lousy" is probably not necessary to the meaning.

We shouldn't bring in veterans who are not good enough to make it, unless we already ahve better options and these players simply provide insurance against injury.

And we can discuss how this analysis applies to our situation at safety in another thread.

Deus Irae said:
It's stupid, as a rule, to bring in lousy ceiling-established veterans who aren't going to be good enough to make it, unless you've already got better options on the roster.

ralmat55 · Mar 17, 2014

I am not an Amendola hater. But, you have to wonder if it makes sense to pay him $3.5 million dollars to be your 4th receiver when a Thompkins, Boyce, Harrison, Ogden or 2014 draftee or UDFA can fill the position for $500k? My thinking is that it doesn't especially when he offers no special team value either.

I would be looking to trade Amendola. There are quite a few teams out there in need of an experienced slot receiver (Chiefs, Bucs, Texans, Browns and 49ers). If I couldn't trade him, I would release him before his roster bonus comes due and early enough that he could get a good enough deal from another team to offset the $2million guarantee he got for being on the roster when the new league year began.

You can agree or not, but it is situations like this that make the NFL off-season so endlessly fascinating.

Brady6 · Mar 17, 2014

BradyBranch39 said:
I am hoping Lafell has very little of a signing bonus, but that his guaranteed $ kicks in IF he makes the 53 this year. Because I can easily see a scenario where he doesn't.

LaFell is a 27-year-old 6’2” 215Lb. receiver who is coming off his best season as a pro; he played on a run heavy team and was very productive in each of the past three seasons. He is the best UFA WR signing the Patriots have made since Welker and Moss in my opinion.

MTM558 · Mar 17, 2014

My best guess at the WR depth chart as of now is as follows:

X: Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins

Z: Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Josh Boyce

This is just my projection. If healthy, Dobson should start as the outside (X) receiver. If healthy, I think Amendola should start at the other outside position (Z)... because frankly, if he's healthy, he is a better all around receiver than Edelman in my opinion. Edelman was amazing and can excel in the slot, but let's be honest, he only caught over 100 passes because every other option was injured.

If I'm KT, I'm not exactly feeling safe. Same with Boyce, though given his draft status, he could be safe.

mgteich · Mar 18, 2014

LeFell just became an almost lock. He was just paid a $3M bonus.

WIDE RECEIVERS AS OF MARCH 18
Edelman
Dobson (or PUP)
Amendola (or trade)
LeFell
Boyce (or Thompkins or Harrison)

Given the injury history of all these (except LeFell), be could keep six on the 53.

SHOWTIME15 · Mar 18, 2014

mgteich said:
LeFell just became an almost lock. He was just paid a $3M bonus.

WIDE RECEIVERS AS OF MARCH 18
Edelman
Dobson (or PUP)
Amendola (or trade)
LeFell
Boyce (or Thompkins or Harrison)

Given the injury history of all these (except LeFell), be could keep six on the 53.

We need one more receiver....I don't think that's going to cit it. I would love to see them draft marquise lee.

SalemPats · Mar 18, 2014

TommyBrady12 said:
We need one more receiver....I don't think that's going to cit it. I would love to see them draft marquise lee.

This is a very deep WR class. Lee, Odell, Cook, Benjamin might be available at the end of round 1. In Round 2, Benjamin, Mathews, Robinson, Moncrief, etc... are good options. I like Jordan Mathews in round 2, he's 6'3 with great hands. Very good route runner, he could play on the outside and fit our system well.

dex13 · Mar 18, 2014

While BB likes to do some unexpected things, I would be shocked to see him draft a WR before the third round. He might but with the depth chart fairly stacked, I would guess RB before WR as far as skill positions. More than likely it will be heavy on the lineman (O and D), LBs and TEs.

50-yard-line · Mar 18, 2014

dex13 said:
While BB likes to do some unexpected things, I would be shocked to see him draft a WR before the third round. He might but with the depth chart fairly stacked, I would guess RB before WR as far as skill positions. More than likely it will be heavy on the lineman (O and D), LBs and TEs.

Honestly, I don't see how our first three, or even four, picks aren't OL/DL/TE, not necessarily in that order.

Unless there's a blue chip BPA WR available, please no. Learning curve/high bust rate/old QB = not good.

strngplyr · Mar 18, 2014

50-yard-line said:
Honestly, I don't see how our first three, or even four, picks aren't OL/DL/TE, not necessarily in that order.

Unless there's a blue chip BPA WR available, please no. Learning curve/high bust rate/old QB = not good.

This. We need to improve the trenches on both sides. TE becomes next biggest need. Our WR aren't anything to be jealous of, but it is a solid group of tier 2 players.

Gronk is our tier 1 weapon. You'll have a hard time listing many teams with more than one #1 option.

Off the top of my head I can only think of the Bears.

Just because ours doesn't come in the form of a WR doesn't mean we don't have one.

Sicilian · Mar 18, 2014

50-yard-line said:
Honestly, I don't see how our first three, or even four, picks aren't OL/DL/TE, not necessarily in that order.

Unless there's a blue chip BPA WR available, please no. Learning curve/high bust rate/old QB = not good.

Given the Patriots recent trend of doubling up at particular positions/groupings in the top 4 rounds, I'm expecting either 2 DL or 2 OL in the first four picks, with a tight end rounding it out.

BelichickFan · Mar 18, 2014

This is how I see things ending up. Keep in mind I expect a return to the 2007 3 WR/1TE offense.

X - Dobson (backup Britt, Harrison or one of the other backups)
Z - LaFell (backup Thompkins)
Slot - Edelman (backup Boyce)

I think they'll move Amendola one way or anyther. However as it's not a cap benefit they could keep him if Boyce looks like a lost cause. As Boyce was starting to play a little before he got hurt, I am assuming he'll make a jump. His skill set should make him a very good slot WR. LaFell should be a solid Gaffney replica and Thompkins would be a solid backup.

We actually match up well to 2007 except that Moss isn't walking through the door. Dobson won't be Moss, clearly. But he can play that role and will get lots of single coverage if Gronk can stay healthy. In the perfect world either Britt (I know he's unsigned) or Harrison would make an athletic backup but we could probably survive with Thompkins or Boyce if necessary.

Stylez · Mar 18, 2014

BelichickFan said:
This is how I see things ending up. Keep in mind I expect a return to the 2007 3 WR/1TE offense.

X - Dobson (backup Britt, Harrison or one of the other backups)
Z - LaFell (backup Thompkins)
Slot - Edelman (backup Boyce)

I think they'll move Amendola one way or anyther. However as it's not a cap benefit they could keep him if Boyce looks like a lost cause. As Boyce was starting to play a little before he got hurt, I am assuming he'll make a jump. His skill set should make him a very good slot WR. LaFell should be a solid Gaffney replica and Thompkins would be a solid backup.

We actually match up well to 2007 except that Moss isn't walking through the door. Dobson won't be Moss, clearly. But he can play that role and will get lots of single coverage if Gronk can stay healthy. In the perfect world either Britt (I know he's unsigned) or Harrison would make an athletic backup but we could probably survive with Thompkins or Boyce if necessary.

Looked to me that Dobson had good separation often on deep routes and had to adjust to the pass, either under or overthrown. I hope he is more confident this year and makes a good jump. I'm picking Boyce as my hidden gem this year if he can stay healthy. I agree, it gets as close to 2007 as it could considering there isn't that Elite WR like Randy.

dex13 · Mar 18, 2014

Sicilian said:
Given the Patriots recent trend of doubling up at particular positions/groupings in the top 4 rounds, I'm expecting either 2 DL or 2 OL in the first four picks, with a tight end rounding it out.

I could see a LB in there if there is a good one available. LB core is shallow especially with the loss of Fletcher.

supafly · Mar 18, 2014

BelichickFan said:
I think they'll move Amendola one way or anyther.

Tom Curran's thoughts on the matter:

"There's been scatter-shot speculation over the past couple of months that the Patriots would release Amendola prior to this year. Even for the inch-deep thinkers we have wading into Patriots conversations, that was dumb."

I highly agree. The guy caught 51 passes in his first 10 games while battling through an injury. Once Gronk went down, we went to the run game for the last 3 weeks, and his opportunities were limited. It wasn't too difficult for opposing defenses to gameplan accordingly.

They'll make their decision after the season is over, and at that time they very well may move on from him if he doesn't improve a bit. That said, his improvement doesn't have to be nearly what some seem to suggest, as his first 10 games produced a 5.1 catch rate per game, and the injuries/going to the running game ended up bringing that down to a 4.5 catch rate. Another catch per game should do it.

supafly · Mar 18, 2014

Stylez said:
Looked to me that Dobson had good separation often on deep routes and had to adjust to the pass, either under or overthrown. I hope he is more confident this year and makes a good jump. I'm picking Boyce as my hidden gem this year if he can stay healthy. I agree, it gets as close to 2007 as it could considering there isn't that Elite WR like Randy.

Just out of curiosity, you're going to go with a guy who looked lost and didn't see the field until the other 2 rookie receivers went down in a heap of injuries as your "hidden gem" of the 2014 WR corps?

Could be--but he's got an awful long way to go to have the opportunity to do that, especially with the addition of another WR or two as additional competition, and the potential of a healthy Gronk + draft pick TE.

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