Patriots going back to the "Traditional" 4-3???

DaBruinz · Mar 16, 2014

When Bill took over in 2000, the team was a mess. It was in salary cap hell and he knew it. Between 2000 and 2001 he brought in low budget guys like Anthony Pleasant, Bobby Hamilton, Bryan Cox, Mike Vrabel, etc. The Pats defense for those 2 years was a 4-3.

As everyone knows, the Pats won the 2001 SB in the 4-3 and a starting line of :
Hamilton, Brandon Mitchell, Richard Seymour, Anthony Pleasant. They had Vrabel, Bruschi and Phifer as the LBs. Ty Law, Otis Smith, Lawyer Milloy, and Tebuckey Jones in the Secondary.

NOW, lets looks at today's Pats, but from the secondary to the Line.

The secondary now has Revis, Browner/Dennard as the Starters. Ryan, Arrington as the back-ups. Browner could very well see time as the Big Nickel or even the starting Safety opposite McCourty. At Safety, the Pats have McCourty on one side and either Browner/Harmon/Draftee on the other side.

For linebackers, the Pats have Mayo, Collins, and Hightower with some questions behind them in Beauharnais and Ja'Gared Davis.

Up front is where the questions are. At DE, they have Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Ninkovich can be moved back to OLB in a pinch. They also have Michael Buchanon, who showed some stuff early, but was replaced by Andre Carter as the season went on. They also have Jake Bequette who has underwhelmed since being drafted. There is definite need here.

The inside gets even more convoluted with the rumor that Big Vince has asked for his release after the Patriots supposedly approached him about an extension and restructure of his contract. The Pats do have some depth here, though. They have Tommy Kelly, Chris Jones, Sealver Siliga and Joe Vellano. They also have the untested Armond Armstead and Marcus Forston.

Chris Jones proved he is a good pass rusher, but the opposing team doubled him up on many rushing plays last year, opening gaping holes. Joe Vellano just didn't have what it took to be a NT and was taken out with a single blocker more often than not. Sealver Siliga is a good guy at NT when singled, but can't handle the double teams.

Seeing Wilfork go is going to hurt, no matter what. But it's not the end of the world if the Pats switch back to the traditional 4-3 instead of the 4-3 "Under" which relies on having a true Nose Tackle. All the Pats need is someone like an Alex Carrington to take the DT spot next to Kelly or Armond Armstead to step up and play at a level close to what Brandon Mitchell provided us those many years ago and I think this defense could be easily as good as the 2001 defense.

Keyser Söze · Mar 16, 2014

I think we've been slowly transitioning to a 4-3. We need some beast inside rushers though. That would make our secondary even better. Too bad Donald isn't going to be there at #29.

Big-T · Mar 16, 2014

I think we will see more aggressive looks - like Seattle using 5 and 6 man fronts. Belichick has just assembled a secondary capable of playing press man and disrupting any route, it pretty much eliminates the "safety valve" with a good jam allowing more creative & down right nasty play from the front 7.

Keyser Söze · Mar 16, 2014

I think McCourty is going to take his game to the next level playing behind these guys.

Ring 6 · Mar 16, 2014

Really the base is now nickel. I don't have the raw numbers but its seems something like 50% of the snaps are in nickle, 25% are in pass only nickel/dime (where we move DEs to DT and heavily play pass first) and 25% are in base, aside from the few short yardage defenses mixed in.
Our success is going to be more based on nickle and dime than the base, and I think BB is seeing this.

From the Nickle perspective (1st and 10 vs passing teams, 2nd and longer)
I see the secondary being something like this: #1 WR is exiled to Revis Island. #2 WR is jammed and pounded by Browner with help over the top, as well as from the LBs on crossing routes. Nickel corner (Dennard most likely) is man on the slot. TE is in man either with a S or a LB with a safety over the top.
LBs will be Mayo and Collins. Both can cover, both can be disruptive as blitzers.
On the DL I would love to see us find a top outside pass rusher to team with Jones in the nickle. I'd rather see Ninkovich be a sub in this scheme, as both a DE and LB. I think that Chris Jones is a good fit for this scheme, and always felt this would be Armstead niche. If we cannpt rely on Armstead (and no one here knows what kept him off the field last year) I'd like to see us move away from using a 320+ lb DT in these situations, and find a more pass rush oriented guy to be at least part of the mix. Kelly is so-so in this role, not ideal.
Run D matters in the nickle but isn't vital, because if a team tries to exploit it we can come out of the nickel and still have a strong pass D from the base.

Dime/3rd down and long nickel
I love moving Jones inside in these situations. Few Gs can handle him. If we add a DE to the mix, Nink becomes the #3 DE and comes in here. Nink-Jones-Jones/Armstead-Allen would be ideal. Collins as a blitzer adds a lot here too.

Base
We have a secondary that can allow us to play base and defend the pass well. This is very promising. Revis and Browner locking down the outside with McCourty having corner cover skills on the 3rd WR or TE will keep teams from trying to go big and exploit us in the air. The LBs give us solid run D skills, and all can blitz and rush the passer. The possible exploitation of LBs in coverage is tempered by Revis Island allowing more help.

This defense should be the best we have seen in years, even without the additions that are to come and the questions at RS and DT.

RayClay · Mar 16, 2014

or Hageman, if available?

mgteich · Mar 16, 2014

So, you think that Dennard is better in the slot that Arrington?

AndyJohnson said:
Really the base is now nickel. I don't have the raw numbers but its seems something like 50% of the snaps are in nickle, 25% are in pass only nickel/dime (where we move DEs to DT and heavily play pass first) and 25% are in base, aside from the few short yardage defenses mixed in.
Our success is going to be more based on nickle and dime than the base, and I think BB is seeing this.

From the Nickle perspective (1st and 10 vs passing teams, 2nd and longer)
I see the secondary being something like this: #1 WR is exiled to Revis Island. #2 WR is jammed and pounded by Browner with help over the top, as well as from the LBs on crossing routes. Nickel corner (Dennard most likely) is man on the slot. TE is in man either with a S or a LB with a safety over the top.
LBs will be Mayo and Collins. Both can cover, both can be disruptive as blitzers.
On the DL I would love to see us find a top outside pass rusher to team with Jones in the nickle. I'd rather see Ninkovich be a sub in this scheme, as both a DE and LB. I think that Chris Jones is a good fit for this scheme, and always felt this would be Armstead niche. If we cannpt rely on Armstead (and no one here knows what kept him off the field last year) I'd like to see us move away from using a 320+ lb DT in these situations, and find a more pass rush oriented guy to be at least part of the mix. Kelly is so-so in this role, not ideal.
Run D matters in the nickle but isn't vital, because if a team tries to exploit it we can come out of the nickel and still have a strong pass D from the base.

Dime/3rd down and long nickel
I love moving Jones inside in these situations. Few Gs can handle him. If we add a DE to the mix, Nink becomes the #3 DE and comes in here. Nink-Jones-Jones/Armstead-Allen would be ideal. Collins as a blitzer adds a lot here too.

Base
We have a secondary that can allow us to play base and defend the pass well. This is very promising. Revis and Browner locking down the outside with McCourty having corner cover skills on the 3rd WR or TE will keep teams from trying to go big and exploit us in the air. The LBs give us solid run D skills, and all can blitz and rush the passer. The possible exploitation of LBs in coverage is tempered by Revis Island allowing more help.

This defense should be the best we have seen in years, even without the additions that are to come and the questions at RS and DT.

Ring 6 · Mar 16, 2014

mgteich said:
So, you think that Dennard is better in the slot that Arrington?

Yes. Arrington just isnt very good. I'd rather have Ryan out there too.

patsfaninpa · Mar 16, 2014

Makes sense to use the 4-3 more. Most colleges run that defense. That's where we get our players from. Don't have to convert them to new positions. NG's are damn near impossible to find. And, there aren't many 250lb+ ILB's you need in the 3-4 either. I can see us going dt and de 1-2 in this draft with Edelman and Lafell signed.

Lowercaseg · Mar 16, 2014

I like the idea of Dennard or Ryan over Arrington as well. Ryan showed some skills last season so I'm looking forward to seeing how he develops. On a side note, one thing I like about Browner and Revis besides coverage skills is they are not afraid to tackle, i.e., good against the run.

jmt57 · Mar 16, 2014

AndyJohnson said:
Really the base is now nickel. I don't have the raw numbers but its seems something like 50% of the snaps are in nickle, 25% are in pass only nickel/dime (where we move DEs to DT and heavily play pass first) and 25% are in base, aside from the few short yardage defenses mixed in.

I haven't yet located a stat with how many snaps for each formation, but looking at the total snap counts for each defensive player the most common formation was indeed a 4-2-5.

Defensive snaps - New England Patriots Blog - espnBoston

Scroll down to the third entry and you can see the season-long cumulative snap counts; you can also go through and see snap counts on a game-by-game basis.

Here are the players who were out on the field for more than 50% of the Patriots' defensive snaps in 2013:

Defensive end
Chandler Jones – 1,134 of 1,156 (98.1 percent)
Rob Ninkovich – 1,105 of 1,156 (95.6 percent)

Defensive tackle
Chris Jones – 786 of 1,156 (68.0 percent)
Joe Vellano – 667 of 1,156 (57.7 percent)

Linebacker
Dont’a Hightower – 861 of 1,156 (74.5 percent)
Brandon Spikes – 690 of 1,156 (59.7 percent)

Cornerback
Aqib Talib -- 849 of 1,156 (73.4 percent)
Kyle Arrington – 834 of 1,156 (72.1 percent)
Alfonzo Dennard – 722 of 1,156 (62.5 percent)
Logan Ryan – 598 of 1,156 (51.7 percent)

Safety
Devin McCourty – 1,031 of 1,156 (89.2 percent)
Steve Gregory – 840 of 1,156 (72.7 percent)

nekromantique · Mar 16, 2014

Don't know about dennard as the slot corner. I recall him lining up inside a bit early on in the season, and it didn't look too good.

Then again, that was also when they were putting Arrington outside still, so that probably had alot to do with it.

I think where browner/dennard/Ryan line up will be completely situational.

pctronics0072 · Mar 16, 2014

Keyser Söze said:
I think McCourty is going to take his game to the next level playing behind these guys.

Last year at this time, I saw the MVP of the team after Brady to be the Prisoner. I believe his presence, and not Amendola, is what truly allowed Bill to move away from Welker knowing he had an excellent option until Gronk returned and Amendola built up trust with Brady. AH's homicidal tendencies kind of ruined Bill's plan.

This year, I see the MVP to be McCourty. He has the range and smarts to be able to be the ultimate fail-safe. How many times as safety have we seen him truly get burned (not the he could have gotten the guy down a couple of yards sooner type of thing) He will allow Browner to be aggressive. If he goes down, he is going to be extremely hard to replace.

skspikex2 · Mar 16, 2014

Chandler Jones – 1,134 of 1,156 (98.1 percent)
Rob Ninkovich – 1,105 of 1,156 (95.6 percent)
Andre Carter – 155 of 1,156 (13.4 percent)
Michael Buchanan – 121 of 1,156 (10.5 percent)
Jake Bequette – 14 of 1,156 (1.2 percent)

Yea, Pats need more capable DE that can help Jones and Ninko. 98% for the season will tired out anybody.

mgteich · Mar 16, 2014

This is not sustainable that the rotational DE played 1.2% of the time. It is not terrible that the pass rushing DE played 23.9%.

skspikex2 said:
Chandler Jones – 1,134 of 1,156 (98.1 percent)
Rob Ninkovich – 1,105 of 1,156 (95.6 percent)
Andre Carter – 155 of 1,156 (13.4 percent)
Michael Buchanan – 121 of 1,156 (10.5 percent)
Jake Bequette – 14 of 1,156 (1.2 percent)

Yea, Pats need more capable DE that can help Jones and Ninko. 98% for the season will tired out anybody.

Brady6 · Mar 16, 2014

DaBruinz said:
When Bill took over in 2000, the team was a mess. It was in salary cap hell and he knew it. Between 2000 and 2001 he brought in low budget guys like Anthony Pleasant, Bobby Hamilton, Bryan Cox, Mike Vrabel, etc. The Pats defense for those 2 years was a 4-3.

As everyone knows, the Pats won the 2001 SB in the 4-3 and a starting line of :
Hamilton, Brandon Mitchell, Richard Seymour, Anthony Pleasant. They had Vrabel, Bruschi and Phifer as the LBs. Ty Law, Otis Smith, Lawyer Milloy, and Tebuckey Jones in the Secondary.

NOW, lets looks at today's Pats, but from the secondary to the Line.

The secondary now has Revis, Browner/Dennard as the Starters. Ryan, Arrington as the back-ups. Browner could very well see time as the Big Nickel or even the starting Safety opposite McCourty. At Safety, the Pats have McCourty on one side and either Browner/Harmon/Draftee on the other side.

For linebackers, the Pats have Mayo, Collins, and Hightower with some questions behind them in Beauharnais and Ja'Gared Davis.

Up front is where the questions are. At DE, they have Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Ninkovich can be moved back to OLB in a pinch. They also have Michael Buchanon, who showed some stuff early, but was replaced by Andre Carter as the season went on. They also have Jake Bequette who has underwhelmed since being drafted. There is definite need here.

The inside gets even more convoluted with the rumor that Big Vince has asked for his release after the Patriots supposedly approached him about an extension and restructure of his contract. The Pats do have some depth here, though. They have Tommy Kelly, Chris Jones, Sealver Siliga and Joe Vellano. They also have the untested Armond Armstead and Marcus Forston.

Chris Jones proved he is a good pass rusher, but the opposing team doubled him up on many rushing plays last year, opening gaping holes. Joe Vellano just didn't have what it took to be a NT and was taken out with a single blocker more often than not. Sealver Siliga is a good guy at NT when singled, but can't handle the double teams.

Seeing Wilfork go is going to hurt, no matter what. But it's not the end of the world if the Pats switch back to the traditional 4-3 instead of the 4-3 "Under" which relies on having a true Nose Tackle. All the Pats need is someone like an Alex Carrington to take the DT spot next to Kelly or Armond Armstead to step up and play at a level close to what Brandon Mitchell provided us those many years ago and I think this defense could be easily as good as the 2001 defense.

They do not run a 4-3 under and have not since 2011. They run a variation of a 4-3 over and 3-4 under, which I do not expect to change. Belichick is not going to play a straight 4-3 stack it does not offer enough flexibility for his taste. If we lose Wilfork they will use Siliga, and a rookie (Nix, or Jones) to replace him and maintain their defensive philosophy, Belichick has spent the last 3-4 seasons building this scheme and I doubt he have done that if he felt it was unstainable after Wilfork.

That is my opinion on the situation anyway.

Ring 6 · Mar 16, 2014

mgteich said:
This is not sustainable that the rotational DE played 1.2% of the time. It is not terrible that the pass rushing DE played 23.9%.

I'm not sure how Bequette is called anything other than inactive last man on the bench. He has never been in any 'rotation'.

Sparetire · Mar 16, 2014

AndyJohnson said:
Yes. Arrington just isnt very good. I'd rather have Ryan out there too.

Are we talking slot cb? cause as a slot cb he is pretty good, its the outside that really makes him not that good overall.

Ring 6 · Mar 16, 2014

Sparetire said:
Are we talking slot cb? cause as a slot cb he is pretty good, its the outside that really makes him not that good overall.

He is easier to hide as a slot cb and faces a higher proportion of weak players so he isn't as brutal, but, no, he is not good.

Ring 6 · Mar 16, 2014

patsfaninpa said:
Makes sense to use the 4-3 more. Most colleges run that defense. That's where we get our players from. Don't have to convert them to new positions. NG's are damn near impossible to find. And, there aren't many 250lb+ ILB's you need in the 3-4 either. I can see us going dt and de 1-2 in this draft with Edelman and Lafell signed.

3-4 and 4-3 are kind of irrelevant, with one exception.
For the last 2 years we have played a 43 with 2 guys who are the size of 3-4 OLBs in the DE positions.
Switch last years personell to a 34 and you have the same LBs with similar duties, but instead of 3 300lb DL you have 2 plus Chandler Jones.(or Ninkovich depending on formation)
That is certainly a move to be more pass conscious and sacrifice run D. We could do the same thing from either a 34 or 43, but under this philoosphy the 4-3 gives you more alignment flexibility.
The real key is having players who can fit the nickle. We have a number that fit it well, and a few that are so-so.
Chandler Jones as a DE in nickle and DT in dime (see my expanded definition above of these) is about as good a fit as there is.
Ninkovich, IMO, is a decent fit, but someone you really wish we could do better than, and have him as a guy who plays 40-50% of the snaps in a variety of roles.
Collins, IMO, is a tremendous fit in the nickel and dime, and Mayo a good one.
Buchanan showed potential, and Carter was what we wanted but he just is over the hill, so we need a better DE who is either #3 or pushes Nink back to #3.
At DT, Armstead's hype tells me he would be a great fit, but I don't know whether we will ever see him on the field. Kelly is an acceptable fill in but someone I'd rather see an upgrade to, and Chris Jones actually looks like he could be a very good sub DT, in the Mike Wright mold.
I'm not sure where Hightower fits, but I would love to see him tried as that 3rd DE in nickle and dime.

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