Brady: Better or Worse in 2014?

another offseason with the rookies from last year, Gronk healthy week 1, Amendola without a torn groin(taking bets for the squares on when he suffers a freak injury next year)

Brady was something like 2% off his average, I think next year hes going to have another MVP quality year and the pats will beat the giants in the superbowl.

regular season stats mean next to nothing...he will get into the playoffs...what we need is a top shelf center and the two guards able to stop the inside A gap bull rushes. Brady has to be able to step up to be truly effective. I cannot believe how many fans watched the playoffs and failed to recognize this glaring weakness. It starts with Wendell being replaced by a stud who DELIVERS blows, not absorb them.

Joker said:

regular season stats mean next to nothing...he will get into the playoffs...what we need is a top shelf center and the two guards able to stop the inside A gap bull rushes. Brady has to be able to step up to be truly effective. I cannot believe how many fans watched the playoffs and failed to recognize this glaring weakness. It starts with Wendell being replaced by a stud who DELIVERS blows, not absorb them.

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Amen.

give Brady all day and he'll pick the opposing secondary apart.

give Brady 2 seconds and he'll seem slightly above average to average.

give Brady 3.3 seconds and he'll pick the opposing secondary apart.

strngplyr said:

By the way, fix the poll.

"Better or Worse" is not a "yes or no" question.

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pet peeve of mine

supafly said:

My one and ONLY concern with Tom Brady...is protecting him properly with the offensive line.

The longer he can play, the better we are and will continue to be.

The receiving options were a total joke last year. It was pathetic. That's not on Tom Brady. Without him, we'd have likely been an 8-8 team at best.

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I voted him to be better, but he won't make it through the season if he is on a pace to be sacked 40 times again.

AzPatsFan said:

I voted him to be better, but he won't make it through the season if he is on a pace to be sacked 40 times again.

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I think our chances of not only succeeding in 2014, but also keeping Brady around for the longest period of time possible, go hand in hand with adding talent and depth at the interior line positions of C/RG.

We could see a nice rookie draft pick added to the mix in the top 3-4 rounds, along with possibly retaining Svitek for depth + the (hopeful) progression from one/two of the guys in the pipeline. If we're lucky, we could see a free agent brought in who has some middle tiered talent or above. In order for that to happen, we may have to move on from BOTH Wendell/Connelly, however.

patsfan-1982 said:

if Gronk plays a full season he will be in the top 3 in stats

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If Gronk plays a full season the moon will turn blood-red and dogs will lay down with cats.

That said: There's a lot of hope around here in terms of the receiving corps. Meanwhile I keep seeing a lot of doom and gloom on the cap catching up to us - pick one, Talib or Edelman. We're stuck with Amendola.

I very quickly realized when I came here that the answer to cap questions is "ask Miguel" and one or two others. Those who knew weren't talking and those who were talking didn't know.

Don't get me wrong, I love off-season stuff... what I am seeing this year though is unwarranted enthusiasm for Dobson. Permanent loss of Hernandez, duh. Gronk may make it through a regular season but I can't believe he'll be there for our last game -- and if it's anything like SB 42, it might not be a good thing if he IS there.

So to answer the question, Brady was the best quarterback in the NFL in 2013. He took the tools he had and got them to believe and to gut out wins. He has that "pretty boy" rep blah blah blah and isn't some good ol' boy duck-hunter in the off-season. He's also one of the most mentally tough guys in the league. Favrevrah or Forehead would be crying a river about their supporting cast this year. Brady took a pretty average bunch overall and willed them to win. Not all the credit goes to Brady -- these guys bought in and went way further than they had any business going. Guys stepped up. Lagarett Blount turned into this world-beating back for 3 or 4 games. Edelman got his chance and became as good as I always thought he was. Dobson played well... you guys see him as the next Randy Moss, but right now I'll take "played well." Talib went from "who?" to shut-down now that he's in a major market. This was my most satisfying non-superbowl year evah.

He might some weird way win the SB for us in 2014... so yes he might be better in 2014. What Brady "would" be this coming year with a stellar receiving corps is moot, unless some sort of magic happens I'm not privy to (something I don't rule out, per my note on capology limitations). His stats may be better, which is moot unless you are trading stats in a bar argument or play fantasy football.

This boils down to "will the Patriots be better in 2014." That might take the shape of low-scoring affairs, a lot of balls in the middle of the field, play actions set up by an increasingly potent run game.

You go to war with the army you have. I don't think the cavalry coming over the hill to save your butt, in the form of the dramatic long ball, is going to be this team's style. Certainly our ability to make that happen at season end declines precipitously given Gronk's history.

Do we - can we - have a team where that doesn't matter? Tall order in today's pass-happy NFL.

All that said (sorry for how much "all that" is,) I'll go in on day one hoping as always. I'm still on here looking for the latest move, the latest reason to say "oh yeah great pickup" or "oh yeah great draft pick." That's why we're "fans," it's short for fanatic. Rational or not, we're all 0-0. Is McCourty at his ceiling? Reason says yes. My heart says "how about if our secondary suddenly becomes as good as Seattle." Are two of our three most talented receivers made of glass? Reason says um, yeah, they are. My heart says "shut up stupid brain."

You get the idea.

Damn. Too much coffee.

I love Brady, and there is no other QB I would rather have but he is not the same QB when throwing down the field, as he was earlier in his career.

Passes 11+ yards down field –
- 2007 – 97/189 51.3%, 2225 yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
- 2009 – 82/178 46.1%, 1966 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
- 2010 – 66/137 48.2%, 1467 yards, 15 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
- 2011 – 99/193 51.9%, 2269 yards, 21 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
- 2012 – 76/192 39.5%, 1748 yards, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
- 2013 – 74/188 39.3%, 1694 yards, 13 touchdowns, 8 interceptions

He is older and like everyone else has likely lost some arm strength with age.

So if we want to give him the best chance to succeed we need to rebuild the tight end position and add another physical outside receiver who can make plays on the football down field, we cannot continue to expect a 36 year old QB to throw perfect passes 25 yards down field to 5’10 receivers.

Ivan said:

The question of how much longer Brady can play at an elite level has been raised repeatedly over the past year, and some pointed to the decline in his statistics as evidence of his decline, so my question has been whether that statistical decline was a result of declining abilities on Brady's part or the loss of over 85% of the production from his receivers the previous year? My take on it is fairly well known, I don't see any slippage in Brady's abilities and attribute the down year statistically to the loss of his receiver's and inexperience of the replacements. It will be interesting to see how people feel about his coming season.

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I am on record as saying that Brady's on the downward slope of his career arc. But also that he's still absolutely an elite QB. I mean, take the best QB in history and say he's not quite as good as he was at his peak, and what are you left with? Still a legendary, incredibly great QB. Just not quite what he was at his very best.

At the start of this past season I said that I think Brady would have one of his best seasons from a performance perspective, but because of all the injuries and new players, his numbers would suffer. That proved to be be true. I thought Brady played very well in 2013, but his numbers indeed were down. So what do I expect in 2014?

Well, look at the last four seasons:

2010: 65.9%, 3900 yds, 36 td, 4 int, 7.3 td%, 0.8 int%, 7.9 ypa, 111.0 rating
2011: 65.6%, 5235 yds, 39 td, 12 int, 6.4 td%, 2.0 int%, 8.6 ypa, 105.6 rating
2012: 63.0%, 4827 yds, 34 td, 8 int, 5.3 td%, 1.3 int%, 7.6 ypa, 98.7 rating
2013: 60.5%, 4343 yds, 25 td, 11 int, 4.0 td%, 1.8 int%, 6.9 ypa, 87.3 rating

Clearly the statistical trend is not in an encouraging direction, though, as evidenced by this past season, there are clearly other reasons for the statistical decline.

I fully expect (1) the young WRs to improve; in the case of Dobson, that the improvement is dramatic; (2) Gronk will be healthier; (3) they will add another pass-catching TE; and (4) the protection will be better as they improve the OL. Those things being said, I think it's reasonable, at this point, to project Brady being a lot better statistically in 2014 than he was in 2013. Of course, who knows what injuries or whatever will occur (nobody at this point in 2013 thought Hernandez was frickin' going to jail for murder).

I would think his stat line should look something like this:

64.0%, 4800 yds, 35 td, 10 int, 8.0 ypa, 100 rating

Combine that with a solid running game and an improved defense, and the Patriots will once again be an elite team in the AFC and a strong contender for the Lombardi trophy.

Joker said:

regular season stats mean next to nothing...he will get into the playoffs...what we need is a top shelf center and the two guards able to stop the inside A gap bull rushes. Brady has to be able to step up to be truly effective. I cannot believe how many fans watched the playoffs and failed to recognize this glaring weakness. It starts with Wendell being replaced by a stud who DELIVERS blows, not absorb them.

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While I agree, the issue is the middle of the offensive line I find just as much issue with the play of Dan Connolly as I do Ryan Wendell. Connolly was consistently overpowered and beat when the DL was shaded as a 1-tech DT on his side.

I expect Brady to be slightly worse as a QB next season than past season. I expect a gradual decline each of the next 3 seasons.

It's clear that Brady has been on the decline; A previous posted mentioned footwork. 5-9 years ago, Brady had an amazing ability to sense the rush and just take a step or two to avoid a sack. I didn't see much, if any, of that last year.

But I am hopeful Brady is statistically better next season due to improved receivers.

I think counting on 600+ attempts per year from a 37 year old guy isn't going to give you the ultimate prize

to have Brady QB'ing an offense everyone knows is going to run the ball is the best weapon you can have......move cannon to RG, draft marcus martin or jonotthan harrison to play C and maybe find a grinder of an RT to develop

the pats need an offensive game plan that prevents a defense from being able to do a decent job covering out of 8 in the box

I wouldn't call it a decline just yet, but I guess you could say we are entering the twilight of his prime. Brady's velocity and trajectory of his passes are still top notch. Brady's been remarkably healthy throughout his career, but things you have to keep an eye out for are those nagging shoulder injuries(i.e--rotator cuff) that plague many older qbs in their careers.

Protecting Brady is most important....and with this being said, I would love the Pats to morph their offense a bit more to a smash mouth running style and limit Brady's throws to 25-30 attempts a game. That way we don't put Brady at risk and heighten pressure on our inexperienced OL(without Scarnecchia also).

I really like what Denver did in 1998 in how they utilized Elway when he was at the end of his career. Elway's attempts were down(27.4 attempts), but Terell Davis was the focal point of the offense and that saved Elway physically. Elway had fewer opportunities but was extremely efficient in their SB year. I really like the Pats RB options and think this style is possible.

PatsWickedPissah said:

Congrats! This is the 1st poll ever on Patsfans where we can all agree!
Brady will be better or worse in 2014!
We all say YES!

As to which, I say he'll without doubt be measurably better
(My key assumption is that BB does NOT lose his mind and trade Amendola as my man Brady6 wishes)

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Pissah, I am actually somewhat surprised at the results as there were numerous posts and a number of threads making the argument that Brady was slipping and showing signs of age. And the reason i asked the question now is because we don't know what he will have for weapons at this time and had they added good receivers and re-signed Edelman then the answer would have been more obvious, whereas now it is more on Brady. I would have thought the results would have been in Brady's favor but by a lesser margin, say 75-25 or so but apparently those who made those posts either no longer feel that way or won't go on record with it.

AzPatsFan said:

I voted him to be better, but he won't make it through the season if he is on a pace to be sacked 40 times again.

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This really surprises me AZ, as you were making the argument that keeping Mallett is essential because Brady may only have a year left in him.

Give #12 some time to throw the ball and he'll be great, yet again.

Ivan said:

Pissah, I am actually somewhat surprised at the results as there were numerous posts and a number of threads making the argument that Brady was slipping and showing signs of age. And the reason i asked the question now is because we don't know what he will have for weapons at this time and had they added good receivers and re-signed Edelman then the answer would have been more obvious, whereas now it is more on Brady. I would have thought the results would have been in Brady's favor but by a lesser margin, say 75-25 or so but apparently those who made those posts either no longer feel that way or won't go on record with it.

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Huh?
Point being that by definition YES he will be better or worse so whichever you think, the poll answer must be YES (even if you think worse, your poll answer is YES)
Problem is with the poll wording.

What kind of a question/poll combination is that?

Better or Worse

Yes or No?


Heh?

They hate their poll!!

I'm really going to enjoy the next 7 years. Because I don't think Brady is retiring any time soon but there are going to be posts like this all over, constantly.

Hell, JI has Brady retiring in 2 years tops. Manning is going to last for forever, though, being the golden child.

Top 3 scoring offense in the league despite injuries and crazy turnover. He's a machine and he's gonna keep going for a while now. Like Belichick I think he'll stick around longer than people think.