2014 Draft Prospect Thread

manxman2601 · Feb 13, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I'm going to assume that Starr will show exceptional athleticism at the Combine. But that only goes so far. There are tons of guys with freakish athleticism who struggle in the NFL:

- Lawrence Okoye. 6' 5 1/4" 304# DT and former Olympian with no prior football experience; 4.84 40, 1.67 10 yard split, 36" vertical. Went undrafted in 2013, put on IR by the 49ers, has yet to play a snap in a regular season game.
- Brandin Hardin, Oregon St. 6'3" 217# DB; 4.43 40, 1.52 10 yard split. 6.88 3-cone, 35.5" vertical, 24 reps@225. Went in the 3rd round in 2012, since cut by Chicago, now on the Jets. Has yet to play a regular season snap in 2 full seasons.
- Louis Ngwezu, Wisconsin. 6' 3 7/8" 252# DE; 4.60 40, 1.60 10 yard split, 6.84 3-cone, 41.5" vertical. Went undrafted in 2012, currently with Carolina, has yet to play a snap in a regular season game.
- Dale Moss, WR, South Dakota St. 6' 3 1/4" 213# former basketball player; 4.51 40, 1.61 10-yard split, 6.35 3-cone, 41.5" vertical. Went undrafted in 2012. Has been signed and waived by 4 NFL teams (GB, Tampa Bay, Chicago and Carolina), now with an Arena Football team. Did not play a regular season snap in 2 years.

All 4 of those guys were high on my radar, but only 1 was drafted, and none has played a meaningful NFL snap despite 7 cumulative seasons.

And as CTpatsfan notes, Nate Ebner has raw athleticism comparable to guys like Kenny Vaccaro, as well as a high motor and background in rugby; he's excelled as a special teamer, but in 2 years hasn't made a ton of progress as a rotational safety.

Starr has been productive at the small school level, which distinguishes him from some (but not all) of the guys listed above; but whether he takes a huge jump at the pro level is a big risk. I'd say day 3, but I wouldn't personally go to the 3rd round based on athleticism alone. Maybe 4th, but 5th-7th seems more likely, if not UDFA.

By all means I hope the Pats check him out thoroughly, and consider him in the late rounds or as a UDFA if they like him. But I wouldn't spend a 3rd-4th round pick on him unless I was convinced he was the "real deal" and not a developmental prospect. That's possible (there are always guys like Jahri Evans and Jared Veldheer out there), but seems a bit unlikely right now.

I don't agree that Ebner who has barely ever played football has anything to do with one of the most productive defensive CFB players of the last two to three years.

mayoclinic · Feb 13, 2014

manxman2601 said:
I don't agree that Ebner who has barely ever played football has anything to do with one of the most productive defensive CFB players of the last two to three years.

As I mentioned, some of the guys on that list had athleticism but a lack of football experience - Lawrence Okoye and Dale Moss as well as Ebner, who I didn't list but CTpatsfan did - whereas guys like Louis Ngwezu and Brandin Hardin had considerable experience playing for top conference schools. It wasn't intended to be a perfectly homogeneous list, just a list of guys with ridiculous physical tools and athleticism who haven't exactly taken the NFL by storm so far.

Starr obviously has both football production and likely tremendous measurables. That gives him a big advantage over the first group of guys IMO, and I can understand why you would separate him. It's not clear how the difference in level of competition would affect him, though he apparently had a good week of practice playing for the West squad at the East-West Shrine Game (where he was coached by Romeo Crennel, currently the DC for Houston and Bill O'Brien). Jeff Risdon of DetroitLionsDraft.com had these comments:

South Dakota LB Tyler Starr stood out in drills for the West. He was easily the most lithe and agile of the group, though he didn’t exactly have a lot of competition on that front. Starr is a legit 6’4” and 250 pounds with Clay Matthews-esque hair and muscle. He demonstrated fluid hips and burst from his stance in drills. During team sessions he excelled at ducking under the block and attacking the football, exactly what teams want from a 3-4 ILB. Most of his experience is as an edge rusher, so the transition might be a little longer than fans want, but Starr has absolute NFL starting potential.

RealGM Football: Encroachment: Tuesday Shrine Game Practice Notes

"South Dakota LB Tyler Starr had himself quite an afternoon. Earlier this week I wrote that he was the best athlete of the West LBs and he proved that again. He undercut a route and nearly came up with a diving interception on one rep. On the very next rep, he mirrored Washington QB Keith Price as Price scrambled away from inside pressure. Price opted to try and flip the ball past him, but Starr reached out and made a strong INT. On the very next rep he quickly sniffed out a run and exploded past the blocking to nail the runner with a big thump.

"Starr has proven himself to be rangy, smart and athletic. There's a lot to like from the small school Starr. Okay, I know that was cheesy..."

Interesting that Risdon projected Starr to a 3-4 ILB.

Kyle Crabbs of NFL Draft Bible had this to say:

Here's what Kyle Crabbs of NFL Draft Bible had to say about the 6-5, 250-pound Little Rock, Iowa, product:

"I was really impressed with this guy in person. He is simply massive in his frame and looks to have the ability to add on some legitimate girth to his frame. He moved well in linebacker drills and he looked like a WR plucking the football out of the air. I really wish I'd have had the chance to see him with the pads on to see how physically he plays against this level of competition, but there is plenty of football left this week. He gained my attention, however."

Starr turning heads at East-West practices

I think the odds are that Starr is the real deal, and I wasn't trying to imply otherwise, but I think there will be significant technical adjustments for him in transitioning to the NFL. He's been wildly productive in the FBS arena, but his athletic ability clearly is way above the competition. In the NFL he won't be able to get by on athletic ability alone. I think he'd be a great backup SAM to Jamie Collins, and well worth a day 3 pick. 3rd round sounds a bit rich for my blood, personally. I'm also guessing that Romeo and the Texans have the inside track on this guy, having coached him for a week.

VJCPatriot · Feb 13, 2014

mayoclinic said:
Stelfans already mentioned Starr on the Mock draft thread. Very, very interesting. Very interesting.

From Bruce Feldman (of "physical freak" fame):

Small school Starr ready to shine at NFL scouting combine - CBSSports.com

Good find. Yummm.

A 6'4" 250# LB with unreal explosiveness and agility? Where have I heard that one before?

Fantastic find. Thanks! You can never have enough mobile, athletic players on defense in today's NFL. If you're telling me this guy could be Jamie Collins 2.0 I want! Having two really mobile coverage linebackers would make our nickel defense very tough to pass against. Opens up a lot of options in sub packages.

You're always worried about small schools, and the level of competition, but if that athleticism is legit, man he must have the most fluid hips in the upcoming draft amongst linebackers! And that's exactly what you're looking for in coverage. I'd like to see some film on this guy. But right sounding like an intriguing prospect whom we could land with a mid to late round pick. Wonder if BB has heard of this guy yet?

Wow, and here's a recent NESN article on Starr:
http://nesn.com/2014/02/south-dakot...r-seems-like-patriots-perfect-draft-prospect/

And well, I know one game is a very small sample size. But I don't find myself very impressed with Starr in that clip against Kansas. Maybe I'm expecting too much but I don't see the motor and the magnetism around the ball. The couple of sacks he got were nice though.

Brady6 · Feb 13, 2014

Couple question regarding Sammy Watkins:

1. Do you think he will drop because of his off field issues, and if so how far?
2. Would you trade up to take him?

He seems like the best WR prospect since AJ Green and Julio Jones.

JerseyShore99 · Feb 13, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I would prefer any of the above (including Lyerla) to taking a ST-only player or a guy with limited athletic ability and upside. Alfonzo Dennard, Julian Edelman and Michael Buchanan have been outstanding 7th round picks; hopefully we'll get someone like those guys - a day 2 prospect who falls, or a conversion prospect with athleticism and upside.

Some guys I would love to see in the 7th:

- TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
- QB/TE Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
- DE/TE Larry Webster, Bloomsburg
- DT Zach Kerr, Delaware
- LB Tyler Starr, South Dakota
- DB Jonathan Dowling, Western Kentucky
- DB Dontae Johnson, North Carolina St.
- RB Zac Bauman, Northern Arizona

I'd like Lyerla or Gallon late, maybe Connor Shaw and John Urschel too

Snake Eyes · Feb 13, 2014

JerseyShore99 said:
I'd like Lyerla or Gallon late, maybe Connor Shaw and John Urschel too

Don't forget Jordan Lynch! He's too damned interesting not to take.

VJCPatriot · Feb 13, 2014

Brady6 said:
Couple question regarding Sammy Watkins:

1. Do you think he will drop because of his off field issues, and if so how far?
2. Would you trade up to take him?

He seems like the best WR prospect since AJ Green and Julio Jones.

Since when have you known BB to trade up to get a WR in the 1st round? In fact he passed on Dez Bryant to get additional picks even though it was clear DB was a 1st round value.

And PS if Sammy Watkins really is a blend of AJ Green and Julio Jones, there's no way we'd be in a position to draft him with the #29 pick unless he has a Randy Moss like stock freefall.

Wilfork#75 · Feb 14, 2014

Brady6 said:
Couple question regarding Sammy Watkins:

1. Do you think he will drop because of his off field issues, and if so how far?
2. Would you trade up to take him?

He seems like the best WR prospect since AJ Green and Julio Jones.

1. I don't think he falls past about #15, although I see Detroit as his likely floor. Unless Mike Evans runs a blazing 40 time Watkins is easily the top WR in this draft so I don't see him falling.

2. No chance. The cost to move up that high would be ridiculous. Don't get me wrong, I love the player, but the value would be horrible. If we were looking for a WR in the 1st round I'm hoping Mike Evans runs a 4.6 and falls to 29. I've heard a lot of people talk about his draft stock being heavily linked to his 40 time, but personally I don't care if he runs a 5.0, the guy can play. Unfortunately I think he runs in the 4.5's and is the number 2 or 3 WR off the board. But WR isn't a position I would look to draft high anyway, I would prefer to not touch it until the 4th/5th round.

manxman2601 · Feb 14, 2014

Get it shawtaay said:
Lawrence Virgil - Valdosta State

Anyone know anything about this kid??? His measurables pop off the page as a 5-t option.

Good lord!

I started watching him and thought he had the strangest style I'd seen. Seemed to just stand there at the snap, let the blockers come onto him and not use his hands to fend them off. For the first few snaps he made no attempt to get upfield. I thought he was going to qualify for worst video I'd seen.

And then he started to play.

Firstly the man looks like a giant. I'm not sure whether it's just at this level that everyone is smaller but the guy looks huge in comparison in a good way. He looks powerful and long without any bad weight. And he has some serious athleticism, gets into the backfield in a flash at times.

Plus size, length and athleticism. It's just his technique that needs some serious work. Yes please in the seventh or UDFA. I'm thinking that if you stash this guy for a year or two and train him up then you could end up with an ideal 5-tech.

Lawrence Virgil | Draft Breakdown

Edit: apparently runs a 4.8 40 at 290-300lbs

And another video

http://www.hudl.com/athlete/673359/lawrence-virgil

Hageman? Pfftt!

manxman2601 · Feb 14, 2014

manxman2601 said:
Good lord!

I started watching him and thought he had the strangest style I'd seen. Seemed to just stand there at the snap, let the blockers come onto him and not use his hands to fend them off. For the first few snaps he made no attempt to get upfield. I thought he was going to qualify for worst video I'd seen.

And then he started to play.

Firstly the man looks like a giant. I'm not sure whether it's just at this level that everyone is smaller but the guy looks huge in comparison in a good way. He looks powerful and long without any bad weight. And he has some serious athleticism, gets into the backfield in a flash at times.

Plus size, length and athleticism. It's just his technique that needs some serious work. Yes please in the seventh or UDFA. I'm thinking that if you stash this guy for a year or two and train him up then you could end up with an ideal 5-tech.

Lawrence Virgil | Draft Breakdown

Edit: apparently runs a 4.8 40 at 290-300lbs

And another video

Lawrence Virgil - Hudl

Hageman? Pfftt!

The first video on that second link is a lengthy highlight video from his junior year. I'm not convinced he'll last until the seventh. This guy destroys Div II offensive linemen. He looks seriously dominant at times which is what you want from an NFL draft prospect at the Div II level. He shows tremendous burst and good COD abilities. I understand the level he's playing at so I can't get too excited but he's exactly what I look for in a DE/DT in terms of size (I can't believe he's only 6-4) and athleticism.

Nice find Shawtaay.

manxman2601 · Feb 14, 2014

For those of you wanting a penetrating 3-tech, you should look at this analysis of who is likely to be the most effective at the next level. Donald and Sutton are the standouts but Tuitt and Caraun Reid, of whom I've been a fan since last year, also grade out high whilst Hageman is a little further back. My new beau, Lawrence Virgil also features quite well.

It is not the be all and all but as a metric it has shown some predictive ability in the past.

Finally make sure you read about the profoundly deaf Adham Tallat, a 6-6 292lb DT from a Div III school for the hard of hearing who is getting some serious NFL interest.

NFL Draft 2014: Finding Playmaking Defensive Tackles For The Dallas Cowboys - Blogging The Boys

Username · Feb 14, 2014

manxman2601 said:
Good lord!

I started watching him and thought he had the strangest style I'd seen. Seemed to just stand there at the snap, let the blockers come onto him and not use his hands to fend them off. For the first few snaps he made no attempt to get upfield. I thought he was going to qualify for worst video I'd seen.

And then he started to play.

Firstly the man looks like a giant. I'm not sure whether it's just at this level that everyone is smaller but the guy looks huge in comparison in a good way. He looks powerful and long without any bad weight. And he has some serious athleticism, gets into the backfield in a flash at times.

Plus size, length and athleticism. It's just his technique that needs some serious work. Yes please in the seventh or UDFA. I'm thinking that if you stash this guy for a year or two and train him up then you could end up with an ideal 5-tech.

Lawrence Virgil | Draft Breakdown

Edit: apparently runs a 4.8 40 at 290-300lbs

And another video

Lawrence Virgil - Hudl

Hageman? Pfftt!

He looks incredibly inconsistent. At times he looks unaware what's happening and pretty uninterested. Definitely shows a couple of flashes but also doesn't seem to be as physically dominant as he should be. Colour me intrigued but sceptical.

JerseyShore99 · Feb 14, 2014

Snake Eyes said:
Don't forget Jordan Lynch! He's too damned interesting not to take.

He's not of my interest, as I previously said a while back I'd rather have Martinez or Shaw over Thomas and Lynch

Wilfork#75 · Feb 14, 2014

manxman2601 said:
For those of you wanting a penetrating 3-tech, you should look at this analysis of who is likely to be the most effective at the next level. Donald and Sutton are the standouts but Tuitt and Caraun Reid, of whom I've been a fan since last year, also grade out high whilst Hageman is a little further back. My new beau, Lawrence Virgil also features quite well.

It is not the be all and all but as a metric it has shown some predictive ability in the past.

Finally make sure you read about the profoundly deaf Adham Tallat, a 6-6 292lb DT from a Div III school for the hard of hearing who is getting some serious NFL interest.

NFL Draft 2014: Finding Playmaking Defensive Tackles For The Dallas Cowboys - Blogging The Boys

That metric is far too simplistic for me to take too seriously and overlooks way too many factors. A much better study would have been to look at sacks and TFL in relation to snaps not games because it can skew the numbers greatly. For example Hageman played less snaps than most others because Minnesota substituted a lot more than most other teams. It also doesn't take into account surrounding talent or assignment. Hageman doesn't have much talent along side him on the DL and faces constant double or triple teams, Donald is just asked to get after the QB while Hageman has a lot more responsibility vs the run. Also someone like Tuitt who has Nix commanding double teams next to him would get a lot more opportunities than others. Then you also have quality of competition amongst many other factors to take into account.

I know Greg Peshek at second round stats has done studies in the past for D-lineman on time to the QB for sacks as a measurement of explosion for d-lineman which also takes into account opposing O-line rankings. Although that is more applicable to DE's that DT's, I think that type of data is a much better indicator compared to just splash plays per game.

Just on the eye test Donald is head and shoulders above everyone else as a pass rushing 3-tech.

JerseyShore99 · Feb 14, 2014

Starting to like Tyler Starr a little, an OLB from South Dakota, should be well scouted at combine and get selected in the late rounds. Take quite a few LBs over him but I wouldn't mind seeing what he has

mayoclinic · Feb 14, 2014

Pre-Combine risers and falls from Matt Miller:

2014 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Offseason Week 2 | Bleacher Report

Richard Rodgers gets a mention.

captain stone · Feb 14, 2014

…as does Troy Nicklas & Stephon Tuitt, in the Fallers category.

I noticed in his latest 2-round mock that he has us taking Aaron Donald at 29 ahead of fellow DTs
Louis Nix & Tim Jernigan, and ahead of TEs Amaro & ASJ.
Don't care much for his pick at 61, however.

Get it shawtaay · Feb 15, 2014

mayoclinic said:
Pre-Combine risers and falls from Matt Miller:

2014 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Offseason Week 2 | Bleacher Report

Richard Rodgers gets a mention.

Rodgers as NASTY speed off the line for a guy his size. Closes cushion like a wide receiver.

Honestly, I don't get the interest in the early guys.

ASJ is underwhelming in every area. Run after the catch, drive blocking, fights the ball instead of catching it. Fiedorowicz is too slow to be worth an early pick. Of course, at least he can block - Amaro is just a big slow receiver. Niklas looks okay.

I don't see what separates those guys from Rodgers or Xavier Grimble.

kennyb · Feb 15, 2014

Get it shawtaay said:
Rodgers as NASTY speed off the line for a guy his size. Closes cushion like a wide receiver.

Honestly, I don't get the interest in the early guys.

ASJ is underwhelming in every area. Run after the catch, drive blocking, fights the ball instead of catching it. Fiedorowicz is too slow to be worth an early pick. Of course, at least he can block - Amaro is just a big slow receiver. Niklas looks okay.

I don't see what separates those guys from Rodgers or Xavier Grimble.

Amaro isn't slow. Not for a TE anyway.

Niklas is slow questionable hands and has a terrible concussion history.

free agent chandler and a latter round pickup like Ted bolser (lacrosse player) is my bet. Rookie te would spend the first year just learning the system anyway.

s3antana5757 · Feb 15, 2014

Brady6 said:
Couple question regarding Sammy Watkins:

1. Do you think he will drop because of his off field issues, and if so how far?
2. Would you trade up to take him?

He seems like the best WR prospect since AJ Green and Julio Jones.

What off-field issues?

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