An Approach To The Offseason

DarrylS · Feb 1, 2014

Keyser Söze said:
you're forgetting the games we pulled out of our ass. Our record was 12-4 but could have easily been a lot worse. We have some work to do.

Of course there is always work to do, but "should've lost" does not count for all that much.. or nothing at all. There are no style points in the NFL.. just w's and l's.

Patsbacker · Feb 1, 2014

I'd love to see Arthur Jones and Emmanuel Sanders added for reasonable money and a retention of our big free agents.

PATS68 · Feb 1, 2014

I did not read through the entire thread, but it is simple for me just win in May. Stop getting beat in the 2nd round in the draft and draft an impact player. Stop drafting 6th round picks in the 2nd (Wilson, Harmon). Give me another Branch, Light and not another Dowling, Wilson.

micronin127 · Feb 1, 2014

Starting point: 6,845,171 in cap space (overthecap.com)

1. Extend Vince Wilfork - add 2 years - create just over $4 million in cap space for 2014. (Cap space $11 million)

2. Cut Isaac Sopoaga for $2.5 million in cap savings. (Cap space $13.5 million)

3. Trade Ryan Mallett for a 2nd round rick or a 3rd round pick both this year and next year. Around 300K in cap savings due to offseason rule of 51. (cap space $13.75)

4. Extend Dan Connolly at a level appropriate for a reserve lineman. He can backup at center and either guard. Add 2 years and lower his 2014 cap number by $1 million. (cap space $14.75)

5. Do not use the franchise tag. It would cost $11 million for either Talib or Edelman. And unless you are certain you can franchise-and-trade them, an $11 million one year cap hit would be it for the offseason.

6. Figure out our number for our key free agents:
Talib - $6 million ; Edelman - $5 million ; Wendell - $3 million ; Blount - $2.5 million

It is likely that we will lose a few free agents. Of the list, Wendell is my priority to avoid creating a draft imperative to get a center and reduce flexibility for the draft.

7. Sign a familiar backup QB (Cassell / Hoyer), if and when they become available. For 2 years and 5 million total (2.5 per year hit)

Let's say we re-sign Wendell and sign Cassell and use up 5.5 million of cap space in the process. (Cap space: $9.25)

That would be about it before the draft. If we could get Talib at our number, then I would look to do that too. Edelman caught over 100 balls, but this was the first year he stayed healthy. I think that some combination of Boyce and Amendola can fill that role. The market will overpay him and with AH $7.5 million hit we will lose some free agents this year and likely won't sign any big names.

Draft priorities:
1. Offensive weapon (people say TE, but I would prefer a stud WR, like Keenan Allen last year)
2. Safety (we need a good one)
3. Interior offensive line
4. Tight end (or wide receiver if we took TE first)

* Miguel project that we will get 2 compensatory picks. Later rounds are good places to grab a RB, specialists KR/PR, and maybe a developmental QB.

mayoclinic · Feb 1, 2014

micronin127 said:
Starting point: 6,845,171 in cap space (overthecap.com)

1. Extend Vince Wilfork - add 2 years - create just over $4 million in cap space for 2014. (Cap space $11 million)

2. Cut Isaac Sopoaga for $2.5 million in cap savings. (Cap space $13.5 million)

3. Trade Ryan Mallett for a 2nd round rick or a 3rd round pick both this year and next year. Around 300K in cap savings due to offseason rule of 51. (cap space $13.75)

4. Extend Dan Connolly at a level appropriate for a reserve lineman. He can backup at center and either guard. Add 2 years and lower his 2014 cap number by $1 million. (cap space $14.75)

5. Do not use the franchise tag. It would cost $11 million for either Talib or Edelman. And unless you are certain you can franchise-and-trade them, an $11 million one year cap hit would be it for the offseason.

6. Figure out our number for our key free agents:
Talib - $6 million ; Edelman - $5 million ; Wendell - $3 million ; Blount - $2.5 million

It is likely that we will lose a few free agents. Of the list, Wendell is my priority to avoid creating a draft imperative to get a center and reduce flexibility for the draft.

7. Sign a familiar backup QB (Cassell / Hoyer), if and when they become available. For 2 years and 5 million total (2.5 per year hit)

Let's say we re-sign Wendell and sign Cassell and use up 5.5 million of cap space in the process. (Cap space: $9.25)

That would be about it before the draft. If we could get Talib at our number, then I would look to do that too. Edelman caught over 100 balls, but this was the first year he stayed healthy. I think that some combination of Boyce and Amendola can fill that role. The market will overpay him and with AH $7.5 million hit we will lose some free agents this year and likely won't sign any big names.

Draft priorities:
1. Offensive weapon (people say TE, but I would prefer a stud WR, like Keenan Allen last year)
2. Safety (we need a good one)
3. Interior offensive line
4. Tight end (or wide receiver if we took TE first)

* Miguel project that we will get 2 compensatory picks. Later rounds are good places to grab a RB, specialists KR/PR, and maybe a developmental QB.

There is some significant difference between numbers form overthecap.com and Miguel's numbers, which are generally more conservative. I would personally choose the more cautious estimates for now.

Extending VW for 2 more years when we don't know if he can come back from his injury with any effectiveness is very risky. It lowers out 2014 cap hit but extends his dead money beyond this year.

Re-signing Wendell as a priority? Given how poorly he played, I find that one rather questionable, but that's JMHO.

PATS68 · Feb 1, 2014

I see Braxton Cave being as being a real consideration for the starting center. He has been in the system (PS) and he has a high IQ for what the Pats require out of the position. Same route as Wendell to the NFL and he would be a lot cheaper. He played in a big time program for a very demanding coach and I am pretty sure he was a four year starter.

cstjohn17 · Feb 1, 2014

Very good summary, how does Talib \ CB fit into this picture?

IMO to make room for Talib they will have to do something pretty major with Wilfork. Tough call there but if Talib is signed the Patriots have a pretty good secondary for the next few years (when was the last time you could say that with a straight face.

(Age right now)
CB - Talib (27), Dennard (23), Ryan (22), Arrington (27)
Safety - McCourty (26) <-- extend this guy, Gregory (31) <-- could be upgraded, Harmon (23), Wilson (23)

The other area that is curious is the interior of the offensive line. Quite frankly they weren't very good up the middle.

Maybe with Vollmer back Cannon slides over to guard and Wendell takes Center. More depth is needed.

I also agree about not cutting players until there are replacements, the ideal situation is you have your roster basically set going into the draft and add talent / competition to improve depth.

Nice work MG.

mgteich said:
We will have a top 5 team and SB contender if we bring back our 2013 team plus the IR folks.
Folks can whine, but I think that a 12-4 team with our IR folks and the draft is awesome.
=====================
A) INITIAL DECISIONS
e.g. keep Amendola, cut Sopoaga, say goodbye to Spikes (without replacement), make a decision regarding Wilfork

B) DECIDE BETWEEN BRINGING BACK A PLAYER AND A FREE AGENT REPLACEMENT
e.g: Wendell or a free agent center
e.g.: Blount or a free agent running back
e.g: Edelman or a fa WR

C) UPGRADE BY REPLACEMENT
e,g, don't cut Connolly or Gregory or Kelly until you have a replacement. (I would extend them all, but that's me)

D) MAJOR FREE AGENTS ARE VERY UNLIKELY
as always, we might get one

E) FILL IN WITH MINOR FREE AGENTS
as always

F) DRAFT WITH FLEXIBILITY
have lots of upgrade opportunities but only one real need

G) REMEMBER THAT WE WILL NEED $6M of cap room for transactions after June 1

mgteich · Feb 1, 2014

I should have listed Talib, since my examples looked like the top priorities; with Talib, they are.

When I wrote, I wasn't meaning to make a complete list. I think that we also need to re-sign or replace others not listed also: Hooman, Fletcher, Collie, Svitek, and Carter.

With regard to the OL, Vollmer will make a difference. If we want to do better this year AND build for the future, I would suggest extending Connolly and using a top draft pick for a center or guard. I would like to keep Wendell, but I suspect that he will be starting elsewhere. For me, Brady's problem was more not having hot receivers than anything else. Having Gronk, Welker/Amendola and Vereen available makes a huge difference. So, I think that last year's line was fine (as the rating agencies say). The issue is having to hold the ball longer because the receivers were injured.

cstjohn17 said:
Very good summary, how does Talib \ CB fit into this picture?

IMO to make room for Talib they will have to do something pretty major with Wilfork. Tough call there but if Talib is signed the Patriots have a pretty good secondary for the next few years (when was the last time you could say that with a straight face.

(Age right now)
CB - Talib (27), Dennard (23), Ryan (22), Arrington (27)
Safety - McCourty (26) <-- extend this guy, Gregory (31) <-- could be upgraded, Harmon (23), Wilson (23)

The other area that is curious is the interior of the offensive line. Quite frankly they weren't very good up the middle.

Maybe with Vollmer back Cannon slides over to guard and Wendell takes Center. More depth is needed.

I also agree about not cutting players until there are replacements, the ideal situation is you have your roster basically set going into the draft and add talent / competition to improve depth.

Nice work MG.

All22PatsFan · Feb 1, 2014

Offseason Plan: (Overthecap- $4,683,946)
1. Cut Vince Wilfork- (Cap-$12,188,046)
2. Cut Sopoaga-(Cap-$14,193,046)
3. Cut Kelly-(Cap-$16,198,046)
4. June 1 cut Adrain Wilson(Cap-$17,275,380)
5. Extend McCourty 4 years with 10m signing bonus and move 2014 salary to 1m(Cap-18,195,380)
6. Extend Gostkowski 4 years with 5m signing bonus moving 2014 salary to 900k(Cap-19,195,380)
7.Sign Talib
8.Sign Michael Johnson
9. Sign Hakeem Nicks
11. Sign Blount or Joique Bell
12. Sign Fletcher
13. Draft as following G, DT, TE

Wilfork is a great player, but with the emergence of Silver Siliga, it doesn't make sense to be paying a run stuffer 8m. Pats need pass rush MIchael Johnson can join Jones/Ninkovich and alternate at DE and have Jones play DT on third downs. The Patriots can also alternate the 2nd round pass rushing DT with Armstead and Chris Jones. The Defense would be pretty much set maybe draft a LB for depth purposes.

On the offensive side the Pats can move Connolly to center and play a first round Guard. At WR they can Play Dobson, Nicks and Amendola with the third round TE.
Depth chart:
QB: Brady, Mallet
RB: Ridley, Blount, Vereen, Bolden
FB: Develin
X WR: Dobson, Thomkins, Harrison
Z WR: Nicks, Moe
Slot WR: Amendola, Boyce
TE: Gronk, 3rd round TE
LT: Solder
LG: Mankins
C: Connolly
RG: 1st Rounder
RT: Volmer
LE: Ninkovich, Buchanan
DT: Siliga, Vellano
DT: 2nd rounder, Armstead, Chris Jones
RE: Jones, Michael Johnson
WlB: Mayo
MLB: Hightower
SLB: Collins
CB:Talib
CB: Dennard
Slot CB: Arringron\Ryan
FS: McCourty
SS: Gregory

mgteich · Feb 1, 2014

I think that it is key to understanding Belichick's strategy. Hopefully, the draft can focus on finding future contributors. If they contribute as rookies, that's simply gravy. We should make no mistake, sometimes there is a critical need, which greatly limits the flexibility of a draft. If there is a critical need, Belichick will use the tried and true method of double-dipping, as he has done recently at TE, RB and WR (and some would add in the secondary, although I separate corners and safeties).

BTW, I am not talking about top 20 draft picks. They should be expected to contribute as rookies, although WR's and QB's often do not. Belichick does fine when he has a top 20 pick. When we look at patriot draft strategy, we must consider that we are unlikely to have a top 20 pick.

So, for me, unless we do something serious at TE, we may double dip at TE again this year. Using top draft resources for TE is almost a Belichick trademark, with two top 20 picks and the double dip since he's been here.

Others (including many posters) think that top TE's are easily secured in the 4th or even later.

cstjohn17 said:
I also agree about not cutting players until there are replacements, the ideal situation is you have your roster basically set going into the draft and add talent / competition to improve depth.

patsinthesnow · Feb 1, 2014

Deus Irae said:
I'm not sure where you're getting this theory from. Even in 2007, clearly a Lombardi or bust year, signings were largely 'bargain' types. That's what BB does. It's not as if they paid out huge deals for Welker and Stallworth in '07, after all. Last year, they had Brady's restructure and they used most of that money. That's what tells us they were going for it. It's not who they spent it on. It's that they maneuvered to get into spending mode.

As for Elam/Welker/Wilson.... He screwed up, big time. That doesn't mean he wasn't going for it.

This Elam stuff has to stop. He was an average safety at best, and struggled a good amount of the year. Even if you really don't think Collins is a better player, Collins/Ryan>Elam.

You've been harping on and on about this for awhile Deus, but come on. Elam at 29 wouldn't of made a difference this year for this team. You act as if in hindsight drafting Elam at 29 would of been the best move for the team, when in reality what they did was even better than what you want in hindsight.

Also, if we are going to continue to play armchair GM, this is where the Patriots (and 31 other teams) messed up:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...uld-you-stay-1st-draft-page2.html#post3414515

patsinthesnow said:
Keenan Allen.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...iled-drug-test-combine-page2.html#post3428401

Unbelievable value if he fell all the way to 59. I'm fine with him at 29. Hopefully a trade down to 38-42 range and grab him.

mgteich · Feb 1, 2014

I agree that we did better drafting Collins/Ryan/Boyce that we would have done with Elam.
However, if he had the strategy of taking one shot to get an impact player at a critical position, then Elam was a reasonable choice. However, Belichick chose to take four shots at a contributor.

However if a major priority was to improve at strong safety, then Elam seemed (and seems) an much better choice than Harmon.

Personally, given that we don't have a top 20 pick, I am fine with Belichick's strategy of usually trading down. Obviously, he doesn't always do so. Sometimes he moves up for a Jones and a Hightower.

patsinthesnow said:
This Elam stuff has to stop. He was an average safety at best, and struggled a good amount of the year. Even if you really don't think Collins is a better player, Collins/Ryan>Elam.

You've been harping on and on about this for awhile Deus, but come on. Elam at 29 wouldn't of made a difference this year for this team. You act as if in hindsight drafting Elam at 29 would of been the best move for the team, when in reality what they did was even better than what you want in hindsight.

Also, if we are going to continue to play armchair GM, this is where the Patriots (and 31 other teams) messed up:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...uld-you-stay-1st-draft-page2.html#post3414515

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...iled-drug-test-combine-page2.html#post3428401

Deus Irae · Feb 1, 2014

AzorianPats said:
Jaimie Collins>>>>Matt Elam

We're going to have to get you to actually watch the games. Collins (2013) couldn't hold the jock of Elam (2013).

PATS68 · Feb 1, 2014

Deus Irae said:
We're going to have to get you to actually watch the games. Collins (2013) couldn't hold the jock of Elam (2013).

I agree with this post, 16 game starter compared to a guy who came on at the end of the season. Going forward I see Collins being a star, but Elam played all 16.

superpats · Feb 1, 2014

Everybody is forgetting one thing. Mankins has a 10mil cap hit. He must be restructured. After that Wilfork should be cut or restructured at a considerably reduced salary. That is up to 15 million.. Now we work on the cuts. Wilson, Gregory,soapaga,wendall, ninko(maybe restructure), and i doubt Amendola will restructure to anything of a cap benefit for both this yr and the future. He is all garunteed $$ this yr so cutting him to pay Edelman isnt an option.

Connolly can be an effective center,or if they feel he isnt then He could be cut to free up cap space for a center. Cannon could be an effective rg,im sure he is acclimated to the blocking schemes now. He iss athletic enough to play tackle and he is a big 340 lb guy with good power so i see no reason he cant be a really good rg

Now that the cuts and restructures are done, the team can pursue any free agents they need including locking up Talib. OUR best player on defense.

Perhaps Brady would help free up Maybe 3 mil or so to challenge Manning and his empire next yr.

Next up Mallet could be traded for a #2 pick or part of a package to bring a big fast talented Wr or TE. I would like to workout Britt,Nicks and Maclin. But the big prize is Justin Blackmon. EverybodyWe missed out on Josh Gordon due to Bellichick obviously feeling we need another Hightower or Tavon Wilson. I dont want to lose out on another young wr ready have a serious breakout. From there they can decide on fa"s like starks raji wood or anybody else. In the draft i hope they dont pick 6rounders like wilson in the 45. If we deal our #1 for Justin Blackmon he still can deal Mallet and 2 second rounders.

What probably will happen, trade the#1 down and get some more role players or crables,braces,wilsons,cunninghams,prices,tates,spikes,jacksons, and watch the list continue to grow.Just hope he recognizes we keep losing due to lack of impact WR and pass rusher.j Even Heath Evans who is a huge Bellichick fan keeps acknowledging the patriots need to pull the trigger for a couple of impact players. Even Brian Billick who admires Bellichick said he needs couple of impact players.

Deus Irae · Feb 1, 2014

patsinthesnow said:
This Elam stuff has to stop. He was an average safety at best, and struggled a good amount of the year. Even if you really don't think Collins is a better player, Collins/Ryan>Elam.

You've been harping on and on about this for awhile Deus, but come on. Elam at 29 wouldn't of made a difference this year for this team. You act as if in hindsight drafting Elam at 29 would of been the best move for the team, when in reality what they did was even better than what you want in hindsight.

Also, if we are going to continue to play armchair GM, this is where the Patriots (and 31 other teams) messed up:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...uld-you-stay-1st-draft-page2.html#post3414515

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...iled-drug-test-combine-page2.html#post3428401

You significantly overrate the 2013 play of both Collins and Ryan, while underselling the 2013 play of Elam. I choose not to do that. I also choose not to complain about the Patriots not drafting Tyrann Mathieu, who's another player I wanted them to take, because he would have required either their second round pick or a trade up, and the argument can at least be made the WR was as important as the DB. The same is not true of a linebacker. I try to be fair (despite what some here seem to think), but I'm not going to pretend that Collins/Ryan were anywhere near as good as Elam, because they weren't, and I'm not going to pretend that DE/LB hybrid was a bigger need than WR/S, especially when they could have looked for a cover linebacker in FA or via trade.

As for Allen, I'm not second guessing Dobson after his rookie season. They took a WR, which was a smart call. Now, we'll have to wait a couple of seasons to see if they chose wisely.

The issues are clear. A stupid pick in Tavon Wilson instead of a LB or WR in 2012 meant that they needed to address S/WR in the top rounds. Instead, they did a trade down for a DE/LB hybrid who rode the pine for most of the season, while spending money to sign a safety that the entire universe knew was losing it, and who ended up on IR before the season even began.

Thanks, but I'll keep harping.

All22PatsFan · Feb 1, 2014

Unless you watch coaching film you have no idea how good Matt Elam is. Watching film of rookie safties I can tell you Cyprian, Reid and Matheiu were all better and Collins played great in the playoffs. For all you know Elam wasn't on the Patriots draft board and The patriots have one of the best safeties in the league in DMac and Gregory can play in a robber role.

mayoclinic · Feb 1, 2014

Davidk120 said:
Unless you watch coaching film you have no idea how good Matt Elam is. Watching film of rookie safties I can tell you Cyprian, Reid and Matheiu were all better and Collins played great in the playoffs. For all you know Elam wasn't on the Patriots draft board and The patriots have one of the best safeties in the league in DMac and Gregory can play in a robber role.

Every time I watched Matt Elam this year he sucked eggs. But I don't have All-22.

patsinthesnow · Feb 1, 2014

Deus Irae said:
You significantly overrate the 2013 play of both Collins and Ryan, while underselling the 2013 play of Elam. I choose not to do that. I also choose not to complain about the Patriots not drafting Tyrann Mathieu, who's another player I wanted them to take, because he would have required either their second round pick or a trade up, and the argument can at least be made the WR was as important as the DB. The same is not true of a linebacker. I try to be fair (despite what some here seem to think), but I'm not going to pretend that Collins/Ryan were anywhere near as good as Elam, because they weren't, and I'm not going to pretend that DE/LB hybrid was a bigger need than WR/S, especially when they could have looked for a cover linebacker in FA or via trade.

As for Allen, I'm not second guessing Dobson after his rookie season. They took a WR, which was a smart call. Now, we'll have to wait a couple of seasons to see if they chose wisely.

The issues are clear. A stupid pick in Tavon Wilson instead of a LB or WR in 2012 meant that they needed to address S/WR in the top rounds. Instead, they did a trade down for a DE/LB hybrid who rode the pine for most of the season, while spending money to sign a safety that the entire universe knew was losing it, and who ended up on IR before the season even began.

Thanks, but I'll keep harping.

It boils down to we disagree with Elam's play pretty much.

superpats · Feb 1, 2014

Actually Billick said blue chip players

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