2014 Off-Season Additions for the Offense

MTM558 said:

I don't get why people want to cut Amendola yet keep Edelman around for the same relative contract. Amendola came up big in a few games and played the whole season with a torn groin, missing a few games as well as with a concussion.

Yes the knock on Amendola is his durability, but Edelman is just as fragile. Since when has he ever been reliable and consistently healthy outside of this year? So many fans love to overlook that.

If the choice ever comes down to Amendola vs. Edelman, I keep Amendola. He's a better player than Edelman and will actually cost money to release. Edelman is a product of the Patriots' system. Any slot WR in this offense will produce. Edelman isn't half the receiver he is if he were to go elsewhere. Who knows if he'll even be able to stay healthy (I know same can be questioned of Amendola).

If the Patriots go into next season with Amendola, Boyce, Dobson, Slater, and maybe Thompkins (depending on any veteran WR additions such as Emmanuel Sanders or even another rookie WR), as long as they can reinforce the Offensive Line and get any sort of production out of their Tight Ends they will be ok.

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Why? Because some people can only see the last game, or at most the last season. Hence the "trade Gronk", "we can't depend on Gronk" and "Gronk can't stay healthy" talk.

Prior to this season Edelman had never played a full 16 game season, or put up more than 371 yards receiving. He had a great year, granted. But we now we are supposed to pay him a big long term contract under the assumption that he will be able to replicate it for the next 4-5 years? Amendola played injured, and he does have an injury history; but the Pats knew that history when they gave him his contract prior to this season.

One of the leading "we have to re-sign Edelman" champions on this board had this to say only last May when Edelman re-injured his foot and missed OTAs:

Good thing we are not depending on him, Slot WR's are a dime dozen.

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Now that tune has changed to:

Edelman has earned the $$$ DA is currently getting nuff said!

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I think the truth is somewhere in-between. Edelman isn't a "dime a dozen" player, but he's not irreplaceable, and there is a limit to how much we can spend on slot receivers, who are limited in their red zone capability and ability to stretch the field. And it's not at all clear that Edelman is going to be better than Danny Amendola over the next 4 years.

PatsSweFan said:

Kenny Britt? Looked to be an absolutely beast before he torn his ACL and MCL...since we've seen many off the field problems and seems to be a douche but if we want a big outside WR cheap maybe ?

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Isn't that Gronk recent injury? many Players have looked average coming back from that type of injury. Things that make you go Hmmmm.

We might save some time and dig up posts from last year's threads comparing Welker and Amendola over the next 4 years.

mayoclinic said:

I think the truth is somewhere in-between. Edelman isn't a "dime a dozen" player, but he's not irreplaceable, and there is a limit to how much we can spend on slot receivers, who are limited in their red zone capability and ability to stretch the field. And it's not at all clear that Edelman is going to be better than Danny Amendola over the next 4 years.

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TonyTucker said:

TE and offensive line. Rob "Bob Sanders" Gronkowski can't be counted on, so as someone else mentioned, prepare for the future like he's not part of it. Tired of the o-line coming up short. The 10 million dollar man gives up another brutal sack. Wendell sucks.

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Tony the massive don't like to hear the truth, I agree with what you said about the Big Guy. We know BB is Stubborn but he's no fool I cannot see this Team going forward Depending on Fragile Gronk he is what he is.

mgteich said:

I don't see the conflict between your post and mine. I apologize for any confusion.

I agree that the $2.88M in cap room will not be available until June 2nd when we start signing rookies. In any case, we will need to have double that amount available after June 1.

I agree that this cut would move some of the unamortized bonus (dead money) to 2015.

The key is that we have to lay out EXACTLY ZERO new money, if we so choose. All of Amendola's 2014 compensation is avoidable.

DEJU ALL OVER AGAIN
Last year, Belichick chose between Welker and Amendola, and might have signed both.
This year, Belichick must choose between Amendola and Edelman, and might sign both.

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No, the key is that the cap has been below 2009 numbers since the new CBA started, so cap space is a scarce commidity. Whether the Patriots take a full haircut in 2014, or take a pair of smaller haircuts in 2014 and 2015, they'd have to take a haircut with a tight cap, and they'd be doing it for a player who can be productive when healthy. They signed a glass man. They're stuck with that glass man until next season.

What may be of interest to people around here is this story from the National Football Post:

NFLPA debating whether to use $2M option on cap | National Football Post

I agree with all you say, except the certainly of your conclusion. The "haircut" you speak of in the Amendola contract is sunk cost. Whether it is paid this year or next is relevant to long term cap planning, but not really to the decision that needs to be made.

IMHO, the issue is whether Amendola is worth over $3M of new money for his services in 2014. I think that the answer is yes. The suspect that an additional 2015 cap hit will occur even if Amendola stays, since his salary can be moved to bonus (if he agrees).

Deus Irae said:

No, the key is that the cap has been below 2009 numbers since the new CBA started, so cap space is a scarce commidity. Whether the Patriots take a full haircut in 2014, or take a pair of smaller haircuts in 2014 and 2015, they'd have to take a haircut with a tight cap, and they'd be doing it for a player who can be productive when healthy. They signed a glass man. They're stuck with that glass man until next season.

What may be of interest to people around here is this story from the National Football Post:

NFLPA debating whether to use $2M option on cap | National Football Post

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mgteich said:

I agree with all you say, except the certainly of your conclusion.

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Nothing's 100%, but when is the last time BB took a haircut of this nature? Hell, he kept Chad Johnson around...

mgteich said:

The "haircut" you speak of in the Amendola contract is sunk cost. Whether it is paid this year or next is relevant to long term cap planning, but not really to the decision that needs to be made.

IMHO, the issue is whether Amendola is worth over $3M of new money for his services in 2014. I think that the answer is yes. The suspect that an additional 2015 cap hit will occur even if Amendola stays, since his salary can be moved to bonus (if he agrees).

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It's relevant precisely because it is a cost, sunk or not, in an era with a tight cap. It's also relevant because it brings up the question of cost comparison in a year with limited FA WR and TE options, even if you leave out the dead money:

Amendola for $3 million v. replacement WR/TE.

If you can find that $3m replacement 'receiver', cutting D.A. will make some sense. I've looked at the FA lists, though, and I haven't seen that player on them. It sure as hell isn't Sanders, IMO.

Tom E. Curran @tomecurran

Randy Moss tells me it "hurts" to see Tom Brady without a full arsenal of weapons. #PatriotsTalk

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I am with ya randy

OK, now we come to the real issue. Some think that they can sign Edelman for $4M AAV and want to spend the extra money.

I agree with you.

Deus Irae said:

Amendola for $3 million v. replacement WR/TE.

If you can find that $3m replacement 'receiver', cutting D.A. will make some sense. I've looked at the FA lists, though, and I haven't seen that player on them. It sure as hell isn't Sanders, IMO.

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MTM558 said:

...If the Patriots go into next season with Amendola, Boyce, Dobson, Slater, and maybe Thompkins...

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...they will have the Worst WR corps in football.

captain stone said:

...they will have the Worst WR corps in football.

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What do you expect them to do? They don't have 20 Mill in cap here.

They will bring in other WRs just like usual..but don't expect any big names

patsinthesnow said:

Wow. Now this is interesting. I'm ready to flip flop on Edelman now and say sign him for 4 years 16-20 million and cut Amendola.

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And eat 3.6 million in dead money NEXT year - no thanks.

DA will be healthy for camp. He is essentially on a 1-year deal now. Cutting him is ridiculous. Playing hurt, in 12 games, he was targeted the same % of times per snap as Edelman and had about the same catch rate. If you prorate him out to snap counts = to Edelman, he gets 94-95 catches and near 1000 yards.

So yay! let's cut him and save 2.88 million...and eat 4.8 million...and use that money to sign Edelman who, FOR THE FIRST TIME, actually stayed healthy this year. Yeah, freaking brilliant, really. Amendola is too much of an injury risk, so cut him, eat 4.8 million and sign the guy who has a WORSE injury history. What am I missing here?

The off-season is actually pretty easy for the Pats. Evaluate Wilfork...restructure, renegotiate or cut. Evaluate Kelly, do the same. If both won't be back, go and grab a veteran DT or 2 in FA.

Mankins probably won't restructure this year - that's for next year. Extend McCourty and save a little money in the process. Sign Talib. Restructure Connolly and Gregory or cut them. Restructure Gost - too many amazing kickers out there. Resign Wendell ONLY if the price is right. Same with Blount. Say goodbye to Sopoaga.

And for cripes' sake, Dante replacement, find a way to keep Marcus Cannon on the field. Kills me to see a guy with that freakish athleticism standing on the sideline.

Grab Arthur Jones if he can be had for the right money...just because that'd be kind of awesome.

Same with Scott Chandler (unless you can coax Tony G, which seems ludicrous, but what the hell). Get a receiving option #2 Veteran tight end. And take another look at Ballard if he's floating around - maybe the year mostly off helped get him over the hump.

Keep Edelman if the money is right, let him walk and get Manny Sanders otherwise, if the money isn't ridiculous. Sure, I'd love to see Fitz or Boldin or or A Johnson, but can't see it as possible. And honestly, short of those three and Megatron, WRs aren't worth what they're getting paid - ask Miami.

Draft interior O-line and TE. No WR. Look for another speed LB and SS if there is a value piece found there. In the draft, take the 2012 approach and trade up if necessary to get the OL and TE guy you want. The Pats don't need depth bodies - they're loaded there already. With so many on the roster still under rookie deals, there really isn't much hay to be made in the later rounds for this team.

And always get vets with attitude. Kelly is one (I really hope he's back). I hoped Adrian Wilson could be one, but didn't happen, and don't give him much of a chance of coming back (not sure he had anything left anyway, depending on when he was hurt). If you can't keep Talib, grab a top safety in FA and a good corner (safeties are cheaper), preferably someone who can light it up, instead of the other way around.

Wonder if Jamie Collins could play WR or move TE?

The Patriots depth chart on offense looks something like this going into next year (on offense / not every player included):

QB: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett
RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden
FB: James Develin
WR: Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater
TE: Rob Gronkowski
T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer
G: Logan Mankins, Marcus Cannon
C: Dan Connolly

Let's start with the offensive line. I am pretty content with Solder at Left Tackle, Vollmer at Right Tackle, and Mankins at Left Guard. Center and Right Guard are the two positions the team should look to upgrade. Before they explore Free Agency and the Draft, I'm sure they'll consider the futures of Marcus Cannon and Dan Connolly. Cannon is an ok Right Tackle / Swing Tackle, but if he wants any long term future with the team he needs to steal a starting Guard position. I think the team gives him that chance. As for Connolly, he is a potential cap casualty. If he is willing to take a pay cut, I could see the team trying him back at Center (where I think his best position is). Wendell is a known commodity and consistent... but he's not thaaat good. If the interior line can be upgraded in any way, the offense will have an easier time maintaining drives.

Tight End is the other obvious position that needs a to be addressed. Gronkowski... I love the guy, but I don't know how he will respond after so many surgeries. I want to count on him, but I think the Pats may start to view him as more of an accessory than a core offensive tool, so if he's out of the lineup they can function fine but when he's in they can explode. This draft has many quality Tight End prospects that I expect the team to take at least 1 of, and Free Agency offers a few decent options. The Tight End doesn't have to be a featured position on offense... if the Pats can get Dennis Pitta like production from any of their Tight Ends they should be satisfied.

At Wide Receiver, the team will give Amendola and Dobson every chance they can to be starters. The Patriots should not try and bury Dobson with a veteran after spending so much time last year developing him. They need to let him loose. If Amendola didn't tear his groin he would have had a fantastic season. Let him get healthy and he is twice the player Edelman is. With that said, Edelman could still return. Thompkins could also make a leap. Boyce is around too. If the Patriots add a Wide Receiver it will probably be as a #3 or #4 WR (Sanders perhaps?)... unless they want to go the way of Denver and have two 6-foot tall monsters on the outside. The future of this position hinges on the development of the rookies, and they can't turn back now.

I have no issues at Running Back.

captain stone said:

...they will have the Worst WR corps in football.

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Because of the unknown, I understand. I'd love for the Pats to make a deal and get Larry Fitzgerald, but let's be realistic. They spent a whole year developing Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce. They can't just turn around and bury them on the depth chart, that would stall their development and make those picks and signings wasteful.

Dobson is 6'3 and doesn't have much trouble getting open. If he can gain some weight, add some strength, and make an effort to be a bit more physical, he could be a player. I'm not calling him Randy Moss, hell he probably won't be Demaryius Thomas, but Dobson has potential. He doesn't need to be a game breaker or a #1 target. He can be a role player, especially since the Patriots' offense always goes through their Slot WRs, RBs and TEs (When healthy). The same standards apply to Thompkins.

Boyce is very raw, but his speed brings a new element to this team. He can play any of the receiver positions and could develop into a solid #4 option for this team - think Andre Caldwell of the Broncos. Not used regularly, but can make plays when the ball is thrown his way. Boyce could even be involved in some gadget run plays, get him on the edge and watch him go.

Between these 3 rookies, Thompkins is the player who is in most danger of being replaced. If Edelman returns or the team elects to sign a player like Sanders or Decker or Nicks (for examples) or even draft another WR, he could be forced out because of numbers.

Brady_to_Moss said:

What do you expect them to do? They don't have 20 Mill in cap here.

They will bring in other WRs just like usual..but don't expect any big names

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I keep seeing this but I really don't know what to actually expect. We aren't exactly strapped against the cap and there are certainly some adjustments/restructures that can be made to free up more room. The fact of the matter is I think that 90% of people who watch this team andwatch other teams around the league would agree that we aren't one of the most talented rosters in football. No WR is going to waltz in and make 12m but Its also not unreasonable to expect a player like a James Jones or even a Hakeem Nicks (whom I don't really want) to come here and play on a 1/2 year deal at a reasonable price. If teams want to overpay for those players than fine, I have no problem with the Pats setting a limit but Bill has other ways of improving talent at a position other than throwing money at it. I think saying that the Pats will go out and get a "big name" is just as silly as saying "expect nothing more than a few jags to come in and compete". Relying on a second year jump alone along with the health of Gronk to hold up and finally put us over the hump would be a mistake IMO.

MTM558 said:

The Patriots depth chart on offense looks something like this going into next year (on offense / not every player included):

QB: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett
RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden
FB: James Develin
WR: Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater
TE: Rob Gronkowski
T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer
G: Logan Mankins, Marcus Cannon
C: Dan Connolly

Let's start with the offensive line. I am pretty content with Solder at Left Tackle, Vollmer at Right Tackle, and Mankins at Left Guard. Center and Right Guard are the two positions the team should look to upgrade. Before they explore Free Agency and the Draft, I'm sure they'll consider the futures of Marcus Cannon and Dan Connolly. Cannon is an ok Right Tackle / Swing Tackle, but if he wants any long term future with the team he needs to steal a starting Guard position. I think the team gives him that chance. As for Connolly, he is a potential cap casualty. If he is willing to take a pay cut, I could see the team trying him back at Center (where I think his best position is). Wendell is a known commodity and consistent... but he's not thaaat good. If the interior line can be upgraded in any way, the offense will have an easier time maintaining drives.

Tight End is the other obvious position that needs a to be addressed. Gronkowski... I love the guy, but I don't know how he will respond after so many surgeries. I want to count on him, but I think the Pats may start to view him as more of an accessory than a core offensive tool, so if he's out of the lineup they can function fine but when he's in they can explode. This draft has many quality Tight End prospects that I expect the team to take at least 1 of, and Free Agency offers a few decent options. The Tight End doesn't have to be a featured position on offense... if the Pats can get Dennis Pitta like production from any of their Tight Ends they should be satisfied.

At Wide Receiver, the team will give Amendola and Dobson every chance they can to be starters. The Patriots should not try and bury Dobson with a veteran after spending so much time last year developing him. They need to let him loose. If Amendola didn't tear his groin he would have had a fantastic season. Let him get healthy and he is twice the player Edelman is. With that said, Edelman could still return. Thompkins could also make a leap. Boyce is around too. If the Patriots add a Wide Receiver it will probably be as a #3 or #4 WR (Sanders perhaps?)... unless they want to go the way of Denver and have two 6-foot tall monsters on the outside. The future of this position hinges on the development of the rookies, and they can't turn back now.

I have no issues at Running Back.

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Just commenting on the WR position, I think there is a difference between bringing in players to compete with the players you have and "burying" a player on the depth chart. Dobson showed plenty of flashes throughout the year but if bringing in another talented receiver to compete with him and he goes ahead and beats Dobson out, I don't see any problem with that. Same goes for Amendola and Edleman if he's resigned. Nobody except Brady should be handed a job going into next year. Dobson should make a second year jump but to what extent that jump is is unknown, I have no problem brining another guy who you have expectations for to come in and compete for a job.

Brady_to_Moss said:

What do you expect them to do? They don't have 20 Mill in cap here.

They will bring in other WRs just like usual..but don't expect any big names

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I don't expect them to do anything, sadly. What I would want them to do is, among other things:
Re-sign Minitron; this needn't be a bank-breaker.
Sign a young vet UFA capable of playing starter's snaps; again, not a bank-breaking splashy signing, but not a Donald Jones/Molasses Mike Jenkins Pyle O' Shyte either.
Find a size/speed non-slot UDFA post-draft to at least have on the PS if everyone else remains
healthy, and who would be an upgrade over Kenbrell the Faller Thompkins.

captain stone said:

I don't expect them to do anything, sadly. What I would want them to do is, among other things:
Re-sign Minitron; this needn't be a bank-breaker.
Sign a young vet UFA capable of playing starter's snaps; again, not a bank-breaking splashy signing, but not a Donald Jones/Molasses Mike Jenkins Pyle O' Shyte either.
Find a size/speed non-slot UDFA post-draft to at least have on the PS if everyone else remains
healthy, and who would be an upgrade over Kenbrell the Faller Thompkins.

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Have any names in mind?

What is the contract situation and the numbers of Peyton..... Hillis?

Unfortunately given the similarities between Amendola and Edelman, and the fact the Edelman has only produced at this level for one season, my guess is that Edelman leaves this offseason.

I'm thinking that we'll look for a veteran WR with some playmaking ability to add more variety to our WR group, which is of higher importance in light of Gronk's continued injury issues. I think we look into Decker, but that he'll be too expensive and instead we'll go after Hakeem Nicks. Given Nicks' 0 TD season in 2013, he'll be less expensive than usual. And, there were more than a few rumors of the Pats being interested in Nicks at the trade deadline this past season.

Then in the draft, grab a TE in one of the first two rounds (Ebron would be amazing but looks like he could go as high as mid-late teens).

All other resources - draft picks and free agency $$$ - could then be focused on bringing back Talib and Blount, getting a new Center, and adding depth to the O-line and defense overall.

varjao said:

What is the contract situation and the numbers of Peyton..... Hillis?

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McDaniels traded him out of Denver. The rumor is that it was because Hillis was putting the moves on Mrs. McDaniels. Not going to happen.