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My QB rankings and Analysis, any thoughts?


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midwestpatsfan

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Hi draftniks,
Well, sadly the season came to an end a little earlier than we would have hoped, but it was a great season and now we can focus on the draft. I do not post a bunch on here, but plan on doing it more this year. I dealt with an illness this fall that left me bedridden (nothing life threatining) for a stretch and it allowed me to really watch a bunch of games this fall and I have started to put together my notes on positions. I wanted to get anyone and everyone's thoughts on what they think of my unprofessional opinions. So, here goes:
QB Rankings and Overviews
#1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville:
Positives: Smart, instinctive, poised, high character guy. Above average arm strength, good footwork and hip rotation. Can make all the throws. Has decent pocket presence, and moves well with the ball while keeping his eyes downfield. Can make plays with his feet. No off field issues and graduated from college in 3 years.
Negatives: Slender build, could become a health risk if he does not bulk up. Needs to work on adding zip to his out route patterns. Not always willing to take the easy yards that are there with his feet, would always rather throw. Will have to work on taking the ball from under center.
#2. Derek Carr, Fresno State:
Positives: Good size and athleticism, smart. Has an NFL ready arm, probably the best arm in the draft. Can make all the throws with accuracy. Put up gaudy, video game type numbers.
Negatives: Has to do a little work on his footwork as he tends to have happy feet while sitting in the pocket. Only really has one year of good production, so is it talent coming through or a 1 year fluke? Not all that mobile and tends to lock onto his first read a little too much.
#3. Zack Mettenberger, LSU:
Positives: Great size and build, prototypical for the NFL. Possesses a really good arm, has good touch on the over the shoulder and back shoulder passes as well. Makes good reads and goes through his progressions well. Put up good numbers playing against some of the best defenses in the country.
Negatives: No threat whatsoever to run with the ball. Is heavy footed and will be confined to being a pocket passer, which some teams and really, the NFL seem to be going away from. Not me though. The other big negative is he suffered a torn ACL late in the season and will probably not be ready for training camp or the beginning of the season so you are looking at a red shirt year. If not for the injury, he would be my #2 QB, and he still might end up there. As a pats fan, I would seriously consider him at the end of round 1 because I love his talent.
#4. Blake Bortles, Central Florida:
Positives: Think Cam Newton. He is an athletic freak for a guy his size. Has a big arm and can run with the ball very well. Didn’t play elite competition, but when he did, he played well. Potential is through the roof to be one of those QB’s that is a true duel threat that can handle the beating because of his big frame.
Negatives: Seems like most of what I have seen like this kid more than me and have him in the top 10, which is a little too rich for my blood. He has a lot of work to do as a passer. His footwork is inconsistent and his read progression has been limited to this point. He will need to do a lot with his throwing fundamentals to become a real threat as a passer.
#5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois:
Positives: Good size and adequate athleticism. He throws a really pretty football and can zip it into tight windows as well as put nice touch on the ball. He might have the best mechanics of any QB in this draft. He has great footwork on the drops (3step, 5step, and 7step) Honestly, reminds me of Brady a bit with his size and his mechanics, I am all in on this guy as a value pick, but I would imagine after this week at the senior bowl he will shoot up draft boards. Could end up in the 1st after all is said and done.
Negatives: Needs to add a little more bulk to his frame. Did not play against elite competition so the speed of the game might take some time to adjust to. Not a real threat to run with the ball.
#6. A.J. McCarron, Alabama:
Positives: Good size and mechanics. A true winner in a tough conference. Team leader and seems to have the intangibles to be a successful QB. He has great instincts on his throws as well as in the pocket.
Negatives: Has good arm strength, but not great and it is something he is going to have to improve on especially on out routes. Played with a lot of talent, so was it him making them better or the other way around. Not happy that he is skipping the Senior Bowl and I think it will affect his draft stock. Not overly mobile and won’t really make plays with his feet.
#7. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M:
Positives: Johnny Footballs greatest asset may be his abilty to make plays out of nothing. A real threat in the running game. He has a strong arm and is probably the most accurate passer on the move. Seems to have good leadership skills on the field and is able to get his teammates to follow him. Played well against good defenses and is a winner. Has shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield when the pocket breaks down. He is a polarizing figure who seems to make the most out of every play and the most out of the players around him. He is a winner with a winners mentality on the field and will most certainly be drafted well before I would take him.
Negatives: Oh boy, where do I begin? Let’s start on the field. He is small. Not only is he short, but he has a small frame. He is careless with the ball when he runs and he tends to force some throws when he is required to go through his progressions. He has happy feet all the time. Tends to want to run more often than wait for the WR’s to run their routes. His mechanics as a thrower are adequate at best and will need to be refined if he is going to be a consistent threat throwing the ball. Off the field he is a ticking time bomb. He loves the spotlight and football may not be #1 in his life. He has had issues with authority as well as alcohol. Does not have that level headed nature you look for in a franchise QB. Was kicked out of Manning’s passing camp due to missing or being late to 2 days of the camp apparently from being hung over.
#8. David Fales, San Jose St.:
Positives: He has good size, but what I saw from him was his excellent grasp of the game. Playing on a bad team, he was able to show great anticipation on where his WR’s should be. He was one of the best at throwing the ball before his WR was open and trusting his instincts and anticipation to be where they are supposed to be. Showed great field awareness and went through his progressions. Very accurate on the short and intermediate throws. He has good mechanics and a nice quick release.
Negatives: He only has adequate arm strength, which he will have to work on to have a chance to be a starter in the NFL. Accuracy falls off on his longer throws, again, probably because of his arm strength. Might need to be in a west coast offense to take advantage of his quick release and high accuracy on the shorter throws.
#9. Brett Smith, Wyoming:
Positives: If you like Johnny Manziel but don’t want the baggage or lack of size, this is your guy. He is sneaky athletic and has pretty good feet. Can make plays in the running game as well, but does not rely on it. Has good arm strength and is a real competitor. Has good vision downfield and can make all the throws, although some additional arm strength would not hurt.
Negatives: The only thing that I really saw was sometimes he gets almost too amped up during the game which tends to lead to mistakes. His confidence can sometimes get the best of him and he will throw ill advised throws into coverage which led to turnovers. Did not play against elite competition and he only led his team to a 5-7 record, which is a little disturbing considering his talent.
#10. Tajh Boyd, Clemson:
Positives: He is a good combo of passer and runner. Very tough and has the frame to withstand hits. Pretty good pocket presence. Has a live arm but has shown good touch on the lofted passes as well. Good speed in the open field and can extend plays with his movement skills. Has started a lot of games and played in some big games with good success.
Negatives: Height is a big issue for Tajh. He is listed at 6-1 but he is going to be 6ft at best. Clemson’s offense is a simple one so his nfl route tree is limited at best and well need to learn to read defenses at the NFL level. Tends to want to run first if the play starts to break down and does not really keep his eyes downfield.
Honorable Mention:
#11. Keith Wenning, Ball State
#12. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
#13. Aaron Murray, Georgia
#14. Stephon Morris, Miami
 
Applause.gif



Great great post. Bravo.
 
Thank you, it has been a labor of love. I have notes on lots of players from all positions, so if this is something people here would find entertaining or informative, I will do it for all positions.
 
Thank you, it has been a labor of love. I have notes on lots of players from all positions, so if this is something people here would find entertaining or informative, I will do it for all positions.

Yes please. I'll give some more constructive feedback once I've had time to absorb this.
 
Awesome, that would be greatly appreciated
 
Some thoughts:


1. I agree with you entirely on Bridgewater. I find it strange that the NFL doesn't seem quite as impressed with him as I am. Clear #2 player in this draft behind Clowney for me.

2. I would probably grade Brett Smith higher than you. 2nd round grade for me. I can see why you see it as a flaw, but I love his competitiveness.

3. I would be extremely reluctant, as a GM, to draft Manziel. He's a potential job killer but oh boy, in the right scheme, he could be wonderful. Personally I think the Jags are ideal for him. The one thing I really like about Manziel is that he allows receivers to run with the ball which suits the Jags receivers perfectly.

4. I have a suspicion that Logan Thomas will go in the 2nd round if he has a good Senior Bowl. Someone will love his size and athleticism. Heck, I do and that's probably where I'd draft him.
 
Just thinking about how I'd grade them.

Potential 1st Overall:

Teddy Bridgewater


Top 10:

Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel


1st Round:


Derek Carr


2nd round:

Logan Thomas
Brett Smith
Zach Mettenberger


3rd Round:

Jimmy Garoppolo


4th round:

AJ McCarron
Aaron Murray
Tajh Boyd


Haven't really thought about it beyond this.
 
Come on people, this deserves more interest than it's getting.
 
Hi draftniks,
Well, sadly the season came to an end a little earlier than we would have hoped, but it was a great season and now we can focus on the draft. I do not post a bunch on here, but plan on doing it more this year. I dealt with an illness this fall that left me bedridden (nothing life threatining) for a stretch and it allowed me to really watch a bunch of games this fall and I have started to put together my notes on positions. I wanted to get anyone and everyone's thoughts on what they think of my unprofessional opinions. So, here goes:
QB Rankings and Overviews
#1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville:
Positives: Smart, instinctive, poised, high character guy. Above average arm strength, good footwork and hip rotation. Can make all the throws. Has decent pocket presence, and moves well with the ball while keeping his eyes downfield. Can make plays with his feet. No off field issues and graduated from college in 3 years.
Negatives: Slender build, could become a health risk if he does not bulk up. Needs to work on adding zip to his out route patterns. Not always willing to take the easy yards that are there with his feet, would always rather throw. Will have to work on taking the ball from under center.
#2. Derek Carr, Fresno State:
Positives: Good size and athleticism, smart. Has an NFL ready arm, probably the best arm in the draft. Can make all the throws with accuracy. Put up gaudy, video game type numbers.
Negatives: Has to do a little work on his footwork as he tends to have happy feet while sitting in the pocket. Only really has one year of good production, so is it talent coming through or a 1 year fluke? Not all that mobile and tends to lock onto his first read a little too much.
#3. Zack Mettenberger, LSU:
Positives: Great size and build, prototypical for the NFL. Possesses a really good arm, has good touch on the over the shoulder and back shoulder passes as well. Makes good reads and goes through his progressions well. Put up good numbers playing against some of the best defenses in the country.
Negatives: No threat whatsoever to run with the ball. Is heavy footed and will be confined to being a pocket passer, which some teams and really, the NFL seem to be going away from. Not me though. The other big negative is he suffered a torn ACL late in the season and will probably not be ready for training camp or the beginning of the season so you are looking at a red shirt year. If not for the injury, he would be my #2 QB, and he still might end up there. As a pats fan, I would seriously consider him at the end of round 1 because I love his talent.
#4. Blake Bortles, Central Florida:
Positives: Think Cam Newton. He is an athletic freak for a guy his size. Has a big arm and can run with the ball very well. Didn’t play elite competition, but when he did, he played well. Potential is through the roof to be one of those QB’s that is a true duel threat that can handle the beating because of his big frame.
Negatives: Seems like most of what I have seen like this kid more than me and have him in the top 10, which is a little too rich for my blood. He has a lot of work to do as a passer. His footwork is inconsistent and his read progression has been limited to this point. He will need to do a lot with his throwing fundamentals to become a real threat as a passer.
#5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois:
Positives: Good size and adequate athleticism. He throws a really pretty football and can zip it into tight windows as well as put nice touch on the ball. He might have the best mechanics of any QB in this draft. He has great footwork on the drops (3step, 5step, and 7step) Honestly, reminds me of Brady a bit with his size and his mechanics, I am all in on this guy as a value pick, but I would imagine after this week at the senior bowl he will shoot up draft boards. Could end up in the 1st after all is said and done.
Negatives: Needs to add a little more bulk to his frame. Did not play against elite competition so the speed of the game might take some time to adjust to. Not a real threat to run with the ball.
#6. A.J. McCarron, Alabama:
Positives: Good size and mechanics. A true winner in a tough conference. Team leader and seems to have the intangibles to be a successful QB. He has great instincts on his throws as well as in the pocket.
Negatives: Has good arm strength, but not great and it is something he is going to have to improve on especially on out routes. Played with a lot of talent, so was it him making them better or the other way around. Not happy that he is skipping the Senior Bowl and I think it will affect his draft stock. Not overly mobile and won’t really make plays with his feet.
#7. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M:
Positives: Johnny Footballs greatest asset may be his abilty to make plays out of nothing. A real threat in the running game. He has a strong arm and is probably the most accurate passer on the move. Seems to have good leadership skills on the field and is able to get his teammates to follow him. Played well against good defenses and is a winner. Has shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield when the pocket breaks down. He is a polarizing figure who seems to make the most out of every play and the most out of the players around him. He is a winner with a winners mentality on the field and will most certainly be drafted well before I would take him.
Negatives: Oh boy, where do I begin? Let’s start on the field. He is small. Not only is he short, but he has a small frame. He is careless with the ball when he runs and he tends to force some throws when he is required to go through his progressions. He has happy feet all the time. Tends to want to run more often than wait for the WR’s to run their routes. His mechanics as a thrower are adequate at best and will need to be refined if he is going to be a consistent threat throwing the ball. Off the field he is a ticking time bomb. He loves the spotlight and football may not be #1 in his life. He has had issues with authority as well as alcohol. Does not have that level headed nature you look for in a franchise QB. Was kicked out of Manning’s passing camp due to missing or being late to 2 days of the camp apparently from being hung over.
#8. David Fales, San Jose St.:
Positives: He has good size, but what I saw from him was his excellent grasp of the game. Playing on a bad team, he was able to show great anticipation on where his WR’s should be. He was one of the best at throwing the ball before his WR was open and trusting his instincts and anticipation to be where they are supposed to be. Showed great field awareness and went through his progressions. Very accurate on the short and intermediate throws. He has good mechanics and a nice quick release.
Negatives: He only has adequate arm strength, which he will have to work on to have a chance to be a starter in the NFL. Accuracy falls off on his longer throws, again, probably because of his arm strength. Might need to be in a west coast offense to take advantage of his quick release and high accuracy on the shorter throws.
#9. Brett Smith, Wyoming:
Positives: If you like Johnny Manziel but don’t want the baggage or lack of size, this is your guy. He is sneaky athletic and has pretty good feet. Can make plays in the running game as well, but does not rely on it. Has good arm strength and is a real competitor. Has good vision downfield and can make all the throws, although some additional arm strength would not hurt.
Negatives: The only thing that I really saw was sometimes he gets almost too amped up during the game which tends to lead to mistakes. His confidence can sometimes get the best of him and he will throw ill advised throws into coverage which led to turnovers. Did not play against elite competition and he only led his team to a 5-7 record, which is a little disturbing considering his talent.
#10. Tajh Boyd, Clemson:
Positives: He is a good combo of passer and runner. Very tough and has the frame to withstand hits. Pretty good pocket presence. Has a live arm but has shown good touch on the lofted passes as well. Good speed in the open field and can extend plays with his movement skills. Has started a lot of games and played in some big games with good success.
Negatives: Height is a big issue for Tajh. He is listed at 6-1 but he is going to be 6ft at best. Clemson’s offense is a simple one so his nfl route tree is limited at best and well need to learn to read defenses at the NFL level. Tends to want to run first if the play starts to break down and does not really keep his eyes downfield.
Honorable Mention:
#11. Keith Wenning, Ball State
#12. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
#13. Aaron Murray, Georgia
#14. Stephon Morris, Miami

Great work.

Here's my rankings for the Pats:

1. Christian Hackenberg, Penn St.
1a. Kevin Hogan, Stanford.
1b. Brent Hundley, UCLA.
4. Devin Gardner, Michigan.
5. Bryce Petty, Baylor.

Slightly different than yours, but there's a common connecting theme. :D
 
Solid list and I like the well thought analysis; eager to read your other position breakdowns.

(manx knew this was coming)

Manziel is too talented to be the 7th overall quarterback. The truth is finally coming out from current and former NFL evaluators about where he falls in the draft: Daniel Jeremiah, former NFL scout, has Manziel as the #1 QB. Gil Brandt, former VP of player personnel, has him as the #1 overall prospect. The media's attempt at defamation has failed miserably. (Back in September, rumors that he would go undrafted, he's a poor leader, etc) Nick Saban called him one of the greatest competitors he's ever faced. Mel Kiper is even mocking him #1 overall now.

/end Johnny Football rant :)

My current top 3 QBs and the only 3 with first round grades are Manziel, Bridgewater, and Garoppolo.
 
Good job, I don't get to watch much college games because I don't live in USA but sometimes I bet and watch through some stream. I think AJMcCarron has some problems when the pocket starts to collapse, he's not very good outside the pocket and gets a little desperate with pressure, affecting his decision making.

I read some things that he hired an agent only now and that they believe that the best strategy was to no play the senior bowl and some other things, kind of a Diva behavior, I've got the impression that this can be a Geno Smith 2.0 in regards do expecting being drafted earlier, not 1st round of course, but I think this guy is 3rd round pick at best.
 
Interesting to see your thoughts, midwestpatsfan. Although we differ on several players, I really liked the analysis. For myself I have Johnny Manziel at #1. There's a number of good QBs in the draft, but Manziel is the only one with some real elite qualities, like his field vision. And forget about his running ability, I think he's the most skilled passer in the draft. He has superstar potential, which I don't really see when looking at more pro ready QBs like Bridgewater. On the other hand, like manxman2601, I'd be scared to death to draft him. There's serious questions about his maturity, his style presents huge potential for injury and I have doubts that he'll be able to change his game enough and fit in a regular pro system.

I have Brett Smith as my #2. He's a fantastic passer who I just can't find a whole lot wrong with. He plays calm and smart. He surprised me when I began watching his tape because I didn't really think a whole lot of him. Considering most have him as a day 3 pick, I'd love for the Pats to scoop him up and develop him over the next couple years.

Next I have Zach Mettenberger, Teddy Bridgewater and Stephen Morris. All look pro ready with good overall skills. Morris is obviously the surprising one of that group and he surprised me too. In watching the tape, I liked his accuracy and the way he goes through his progressions. His numbers would have looked much better if his receivers weren't constantly dropping balls. His biggest problem is decision making. Throws way too many risky balls. I feel the same about Mettenberger. Of course Mettenberger has off field issues and injury issues, but he has great size and I'm impressed at how much he improved this year.

After them I have A.J. McCarron, David Carr and David Fales. All seem decent, nothing special. I liked Carr much more last year than I did this year. Blake Bortles is next. He's fantastic physically, but I feel he needs a lot of development. I'm not in with the crowd rating him as a 1st rounder.

As far as the other big names go, I feel similarly about Jimmy Garoppolo whereas many good scouts and draftniks love him, but I just don't see it. I think he's pretty average. Logan Thomas does nothing for me. Big guy who doesn't use his size well and is a below average passer. I think Aaron Murray improved some this past year even though his receiving options handcuffed him. Still isn't high on my list though. I think Tajh Boyd is awful. I can't imagine him playing QB in the NFL. I don't think his skills translate to anything more than a wildcat QB.
 
I have Brett Smith as my #2. He's a fantastic passer who I just can't find a whole lot wrong with. He plays calm and smart. He surprised me when I began watching his tape because I didn't really think a whole lot of him. Considering most have him as a day 3 pick, I'd love for the Pats to scoop him up and develop him over the next couple years.

Love Smith.
 
This is crazy, but Tahj Boyd is my favorite qb in this entire draft class. I just have a gut feeling that he would be amazing here.
 
This is crazy, but Tahj Boyd is my favorite qb in this entire draft class. I just have a gut feeling that he would be amazing here.

Go read Ridson's remarks on him at the Senior Bowl. I agree with him, I think Boyd is bad and I've seen him live.
 
Loving all the chatter and opinions. I think I should make clear that I really like Brett Smith as well and I do think he will go in the 2nd round. I think as this process moves forward and I can go back and review tape or find new games these rankings will probably change some. I only had a few early games of his to watch, so I have to admit, my notes on some of these smaller guys is much more limited than the teams you can find on TV every week. He is a guy now on my radar to go back and look at more since reading the comments on here. That is what I am hoping to get out of these threads
 
I love Johnny Football. The biggest problem is he's too damn competitive to slide or run out of bounds. But he can run, throw, has instinct and his teammates love him. I honestly think he's the best of the lot if he can stay healthy - which, adittedly, is a longshot.

Mettenberger is so much like Mallett it's silly, although Mett seems tougher without quite as strong of an arm (still plenty of arm but Mallett's cannon is rare). I like Mett, problem is I've heard two sources (draft tweets, no inside sources) continue to refer to the off field concerns being "scary". Combine this with the ACL and I think he may drop more than expected like Mallett did.

I like McCarron but he needs to go on Brady's body building program. He has the frame for it but he's not big a strong enough yet. He also tends to drop his eyes when the pass rush comes. I'm a 'Bama fan but the (relative to where they're drafted) bust rate the last few years is a little scary.

Overall I'm not sure there's a guy I want to draft too much this year. Smith intrigues, depending where he goes, maybe. Mett and McCarron I would consider but not until the 3rd round. The guy I would try if he slips is Logan Thomas. I get it about his accuracy and overall performance but as a thrower he's closer to Cam Newton than Tim Tebow, he has a LOT of work to do but there's plenty to work with. However I suspect someone will take him earlier than I would.
 
Has anybody given Tom Savage a good look? I haven't watched any tape of him, but I've heard a lot of good things.
 
Has anybody given Tom Savage a good look? I haven't watched any tape of him, but I've heard a lot of good things.
Pretty solid, good arm strength and football IQ, wouldn't mind signing him post-draft one bit
 
This is crazy, but Tahj Boyd is my favorite qb in this entire draft class. I just have a gut feeling that he would be amazing here.

Boyd really benefited from having some excellent Wide receivers and a WR coach as the head coach.

I think teams need to stay away from him early.

In my mind Hundley was the best QB in college football last year. Put him in the Clemson offense and he might have had a record breaking year.
 
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