Pats are 6.5 point underdogs next week at Denver

RIpats88 said:

I think you need to put faith that your OL and RB are better than their run defense. our success as of the last 3 games has been you want to put 8 in the box? ok we are still going to run right through you. and by and large we have.



I like the pats being a more physical team denver is more finesse

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No one is putting 8 in the box against is.

Wow! I predicted 3 points for the Pats game and 1 for the Niners. These lines are high. I realize it because Vegas likes to split it but this line is Begging you to take the Pats and the points. During the regular season this would mean bet heavy on the Donks. Not a good omen. Donks D looked good today. We will see if they can stop the Pats rushing attack though!

I don't think that 6.5 is unreasonable.

If our teams were equal on a neutral field, I would expect a 3.5 point speed.

I suppose that what folks are saying that our injuries just don't add up to 3 points. We have recently lost Spikes. I don't expect Allen, Dobson or THompkins to be anywhere near 100%. So, 3 point for recent injuries seems right. Of course, that says that we were equal after Gronk was out.

That being said, there is no reason that we shouldn't have a solid shot to win.

Not into the betting thing, but there's this:

Matt Costello ‏@DJMC25 12m
@tomecurran lines down to 4.5 already
Retweeted by Tom E. Curran

One of the Bronco injuries must have been confirmed as being severe.

Uncle Rico said:

Not into the betting thing, but there's this:

Matt Costello ‏@DJMC25 12m
@tomecurran lines down to 4.5 already
Retweeted by Tom E. Curran

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mgteich said:

One of the Bronco injuries must have been confirmed as being severe.

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lots of people betting pats...i bet it at +6

Uncle Rico said:

Not into the betting thing, but there's this:

Matt Costello ‏@DJMC25 12m
@tomecurran lines down to 4.5 already
Retweeted by Tom E. Curran

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After the Pats blew out the Colts and the Chargers had at least a chance at the end of the game vs. the Broncos, I figured the line would drop when I heard 6.5. Not two points in a couple of hours, but I figured it would be closer to 3 points by the end of the week.

It might be a pick 'em or even the Pats being favored by the end of the week with how fast the line dropped.

Public came in fast and heavy for the Pats if it's down to 4.5 already.

I was thinking it would hit 4 or 4.5 Thursday or Friday.

mgteich said:

One of the Bronco injuries must have been confirmed as being severe.

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My guess it's Harris.

However, the Pats just don't have the receiving horses to truly take advantage of that.

Maybe put in a call to Messrs. Stallworth and Gaffney?

Rob0729 said:

It might be a pick 'em or even the Pats being favored by the end of the week

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I see someone's got a head start on their trip to Colorado, and the "tourist attractions" that come with said trip.

Puff, puff, pass; and enjoy the festivities

JMC00 said:

Public came in fast and heavy for the Pats if it's down to 4.5 already.

I was thinking it would hit 4 or 4.5 Thursday or Friday.

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With the Patriots being a "public team" who attracts top 3 attention for all NFL teams historically (or at least the past 10+ yrs), the Brady vs Manning media hype (along with Brady's 10-4 record), the recent news after the press conference given by Fox about Chris Harris being their most severe injury, and the fact that the spread was likely a point or two on the high side to begin with, I'm not surprised in the least.

That all said, I don't think it's going to go down below 3.5--4 by the end of the week no matter what. Denver -3 to 4 points is going to be considered a pretty solid bet for most, considering their explosive offense, along with their home field advantage.

shmessy said:

My guess it's Harris.

However, the Pats just don't have the receiving horses to truly take advantage of that.

Maybe put in a call to Messrs. Stallworth and Gaffney?

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There is fear Broncos cornerback Chris Harris has suffered a serious knee injury.

One of Denver's top defensive players, Harris left the game in the third quarter with ankle and knee injuries and did not return. Although X-rays were negative, Harris will undergo an MRI exam on his knee Monday morning. It's almost certain Harris won't play in the AFC championship game next week against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

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Chris Harris, Broncos cornerback, to undergo MRI exam for injuries - The Denver Post

supafly said:

I see someone's got a head start on their trip to Colorado, and the "tourist attractions" that come with said trip.

Puff, puff, pass; and enjoy the festivities

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The betting line only means what the public is thinking. A significant drop of the line in the first few hours of it being released usually signifies a huge betting on the underdog. Typically, that causes the line to continue to drop.

It is probably because of the loss of Harris, but if it isn't the line will continue to drop.

The Vegas line means nothing other than where Vegas thinks the money is going to go or where the money is going. If the drop is because the public is betting on the Pats, it will continue to drop all week.

Already seen it down to 5.

Either way, I'll be taking a teaser bet on the Patriots and Seahawks this weekend. That gives me 7 points against each spread.

I'm very happy about this. Even getting the Patriots at +4 makes for a very, very nice bet for a Broncos fan. Best case scenario is a three point win, worst case scenario is a nice payday.

has the ref crew been announced yet?

THE most important aspect of this game, betting wise...IMO of course.

Rob0729 said:

The betting line only means what the public is thinking. A significant drop of the line in the first few hours of it being released usually signifies a huge betting on the underdog. Typically, that causes the line to continue to drop.

It is probably because of the loss of Harris, but if it isn't the line will continue to drop.

The Vegas line means nothing other than where Vegas thinks the money is going to go or where the money is going. If the drop is because the public is betting on the Pats, it will continue to drop all week.

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I don't doubt your statements for one second, but I think you may be in for a surprise if you're expecting it to drop significantly enough to where the Patriots will be even or favored at the end of the week, which is what you said.

The only way that N.England will be even or favored on the road at Mile High against Manning and his offense come gametime, is if Manning and his offense all slip in the shower and fall like dominoes.

Joker said:

has the ref crew been announced yet?

THE most important aspect of this game, betting wise...IMO of course.

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Usually around Wed or Thurs.

As mgteich said, it's not that surprising to see that we opened at 6 pt underdogs, when you consider the fact that we'd have easily been 3 pt underdogs if the game were being played on a neutral field.

I still think that us at +4.5 or so is appropriate, but that we may see it drop down to +3.5 or so by gametime.

6 was probably too high, just the same as we were favored by way too much last year vs BAL. We opened at -8.5 for the AFCCG and it dropped dramatically right off the bat, and continued to do so throughout the week as the reports of the wind, etc continued to emerge.

Corrente, Steratore likely to head Conference Championship crews

per footballzebras.com

Just for reference, we were 3 point underdogs at gametime for the 2006 AFCCG played at Indy, which is also coincidentally the last time we played in the postseason on the road.

I think that this yr's comparison is probably on par with the 2006 situation, all things considered. Of course, we had a much better defense that came in #2 in the NFL having allowed an average of 14.8 ppg throughout the season, but our offense was right around the same effectiveness at something around the mid-20's.

Obviously, it could be argued that our offense is more effective this year, especially if we can continue with the running game, but our point differential is actually worse this year (average per game) at about +7, where it was +10 (average per game) for 2006. All things considered, I think the line should be a point higher or so than it was for our road matchup in 2006. Just my opinion, but I think there are some similarities to both teams and the fact that Manning had a HFA for the AFCCG, along with a good offense.