Indoor Teams in the cold drop to 4-22 in playoffs

Bill Simmons on the NFL playoffs - Grantland

New Orleans Saints' win in Philadelphia was significant as it was just the 4th since 2006 with 22 defeats by dome teams in sub-freezing outdoor games.

For those of you rooting for Cincinnati today, you may want to get out your Chargers gear and root for the Colts to visit Foxborough next weekend and let the Broncos deal with Cinderella.

Another interesting stat in the Grantland article above is that Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are a combined 19-16 in the playoffs the last 8 years while Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are 21-9 combined in the playoffs in the same time period. Weird.

Suggestions # 5 and #6 almost guaranteed that the Chiefs would lose to the Colts.

The old expression goes there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I wish there was more context to this figure than just 4-22. After all, most NFL teams on the road are underdogs to begin with.

This study shows home teams win 68% of home games regardless of temperature, simply because good teams are generally good at home, and usually the better team gets to host the game (this year's NFC wild card being an exception).

I'm having a hard time re-calculating the 4-22 mark and I'm not sure what it's based on. I also find 35 degrees to be such a ridiculously arbitrary mark. What does that mark have to do? It's not 32 (freezing), and is there a significant difference between 35 and 40 degrees? Why that number specifically? I don't know.

But digging a bit further, you can see it's a bit questionable.

The Vikings from 1982 have been a dome team, and on the road, they're 4-12 regardless of temperature, and 1-3 when it goes under 35 degrees, so 25% on the road, temperature being whatever. They're 2-4 in games under 40 degrees and 1-2 in games below 32 degrees, but that 35 degree mark optimizes their loss record.

The Falcons are 3-5 on the road since they became a "dome" team, 1-4 below that arbitrary 35 degree mark. This is a pretty tiny sample size as if they won one of those games, they'd be above average and above their overall road record as a "dome" team. This mark excludes 2 losses when they were an outdoor team, one in the dome and one below the 35 degree mark. So they were 0-2 as an outdoor team in below 35 degree temperatures, 1-4 as a dome team.

The Saints prior to yesterday were 0-4 in all road games including a dome game against the Vikings, and 0-2 in cold weather games. With the win, they're now above average. Again, extremely small sample size, but they were the same in road games below 35 and above 35 before yesterday.

The Lions are 0-8 in road playoff games as a dome team, and 0-2 in 35 or below. Can you really say they're any worse in cold weather?

I think there's a bit of something to it, but it's effect has been overblown and overstated.

I am rooting for the Chargers cause of Woodhead but that is it. I really don't care who wins in the end. Stats mean nothing. Any Given Sunday. We can beat anyone and we could lose to anyone.

An indoor team playing a cold weather playoff game would mean they are an away team and that would mean they are a lower seed which means they won less games than their opponent which means they probably aren't as good.

although there is some significance in this 4-22 mark I would suggest it is exaggerated. Since the merger the home team is 214-96 in playoff games, a decisive 69% winning percentage. (I am, of course, only counting the games where there really was a home team. That is, Super Bowls have been excluded.) That is from pro-football reference cut and pasted.

So you are comparing 31% versus 16% win percentage.

Since the merger (1970), road teams in below-freezing temperatures (<=32 F) are 32-71 (.311 W%) in the playoffs, and 94-187 (.335 W%) in the rest of the games (over 32 F). Not significantly different, IMO.