Shockingly Obvious: McDaniels, Don't Be Afraid of the Run!!!

McDaniels Express Route to next head coaching Gig:

1. Get-along good with T. Brady. Be pass-happy to align yourself closer to Brady's success, at the expense of offensive balance.

Example: Up 10 points with nine minutes to go in a good weather game. Milk the clock? No, let's throw for a 40 yard bomb that is incomplete, then follow that up with 2 incompletions for a 20 second drive, and give ball back to an average QB, who quickly scores points on your defense.

TonyTucker said:

I've got no problem with them throwing 45 times, if it's working. Clearly on Sunday, Brady could not complete a pass more than 5 yards, and the running game was gashing them for 6+ ypc. Yet Clown Shoes still felt the need to call passes in the dirt that ended up making that game closer at the end than it needed to be.

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Unfortunately, common sense and history also shows that if you run on every single down, they're eventually going to key in on that and stop it If you charted every play McDaniels called, I gaurantee you behind every successful run we had there was a sequence of plays before hand that led to that play being a success.

Anyone who knows anything about play calling knows you don't just call random plays. You run numerous plays in order to set up another further down the line. It isn't random!

How do you know that some of our successful run plays weren't down to the sequence we were calling before, which INCLUDED passing plays? You don't. Those pass attempts could well have been leading up to an eventual run.

The art of play calling is DECEPTION. You can't give up on either the pass or the run or you become predictable. You have to keep them guessing and by passing the football, even though we didn't have tremendous success, we forced them to respect the fact that we were going to do it. If we stopped passing and didn't attempt to often enough, they'd have cheated towards the run.

Whilst sometimes I wish we would narrow down the ratio a little bit, the notion that we shouldn't have passed and the fact that we did so kept things closer is absolutely ludicrous.

You have to pass or they won't respect it. That's common football knowledge and, had we still wound up losing the game via a freak fumble or whatever, you'd probably be whining we didn't try and get the passing game going often enough!

You're going to LOSE football games. Don't over analyse it. You need to look at execution more than the play calling FYI.

As some of the other posters have said, TB gets a ton of latitude in checking out of called plays that based on the defensive alignment, personnel groupings on the field for both teams.

Howe's numbers are interesting and certainly worthy off additional scrutiny of the offense but it does not prove that JMC is the one that is calling run plays when the result is a pass or vice-versa.

robertweathers said:

As some of the other posters have said, TB gets a ton of latitude in checking out of called plays that based on the defensive alignment, personnel groupings on the field for both teams.

Howe's numbers are interesting and certainly worthy off additional scrutiny of the offense but it does not prove that it is JMC is the one that is calling run plays when the result is a pass or vice-versa.

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Brady does change plays a lot, but I think it's more from one pass play to another pass play, or one run play to another run play. I don't think they run from a passing formation very often, but maybe they should.They'd be a lot less predictable.

One thing that really annoys me,is that when they get a first down around the 50 yard line, the next play is almost always a deep pass that is usually over thrown. They should put that one in the back of the playbook.

I am sure that Brady has a running play or a passing play that he can check to depending on the defense.

I think that the most obvious example of the team abandoning the run was the 2nd Miami game, where they were up in the first half and got that way by running the ball and they came out in the second half and threw the ball 3 straight times.

They just did not run the ball in the second half at all. This occurred pretty much for all their losses. They stopped running the ball even though they had 3rd quarter leads.

Nunchucks said:

I am sure that Brady has a running play or a passing play that he can check to depending on the defense.

I think that the most obvious example of the team abandoning the run was the 2nd Miami game, where they were up in the first half and got that way by running the ball and they came out in the second half and threw the ball 3 straight times.

They just did not run the ball in the second half at all. This occurred pretty much for all their losses. They stopped running the ball even though they had 3rd quarter leads.

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Bingo, Nunchucks.

That second Miami game was egregious. 55-22 Pass-to-Run ratio while missing their #3 and #4 WRs, and "Ghidorah + Bolden and Develin" were fully available.

Who needs automatic home field advantage throughout the playoffs anyway?

shmessy said:

Bingo, Nunchucks.

That second Miami game was egregious. 55-22 Pass-to-Run ratio while missing their #3 and #4 WRs, and "Ghidorah + Bolden and Develin" were fully available.

Who needs automatic home field advantage throughout the playoffs anyway?

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shmessy- its not like Brady threw it for 201 yards and 4 picks. The man had great weather conditions, put up 364 yards and if he had a guy like Gronk to catch a TD pass or Amendola and Edelman making a grab in the clutch we aren't having the discussion on why they didn't utilize the running game as much as they should have during the game.

supafly said:

For sure. I'm not exactly certain what the final numbers ended up being, but we went right back to struggling in the red zone all over again yesterday after a nice improvement at Baltimore the week before.

Of course, I think it's safe to say that the lack of any type of actual downfield receiving threat kind of goes hand in hand with the issues in the RZ too though. As much as people seem to be worried about Dobson's future this season, I honestly don't think he adds too much at the moment. Unfortunately, his injury kind of seemed to ruin any good momentum that he was building coming off of his peak in the Steelers game.

If Thompkins/Dobson aren't going to contribute too much, then we seriously have to hope that either Collie comes back and sets the world on fire (doubtful), the TEs somehow contribute (doubtful), or we continue to somehow get it done with Amendola/Edelman + Shane Vereen--which is scary to think about vs good teams.

Sheer luck and someone possibly beating Denver could go an awful long way towards helping this cause in the playoffs...an awful long way.

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I said right after the loss to the Ravens last year in the AFCCG that the team needed a big bodied, athletic WR that can win jump balls. Dobson was drafted with that in mind but, unfortunately, hasn't lived up to it to date (keep in mind he's only a rookie). He's also injured. With that being said, it's hard to expect much from him in the red zone in the postseason, which is why I said that red zone offense should be considered an issue going forward. The team desperately needs another TE next season. He could either be a compliment to Gronk to help the red zone offense even more when Gronk is available or can take over his role when Gronk's seemingly inevitable injury strikes.

robertweathers said:

shmessy- its not like Brady threw it for 201 yards and 4 picks. The man had great weather conditions, put up 364 yards and if he had a guy like Gronk to catch a TD pass or Amendola and Edelman making a grab in the clutch we aren't having the discussion on why they didn't utilize the running game as much as they should have during the game.

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Heh, "if" is a nice way to put it...maybe if they ran the ball more, there would be no "if" and the Patriots would have home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

robertweathers said:

shmessy- its not like Brady threw it for 201 yards and 4 picks. The man had great weather conditions, put up 364 yards and if he had a guy like Gronk to catch a TD pass or Amendola and Edelman making a grab in the clutch we aren't having the discussion on why they didn't utilize the running game as much as they should have during the game.

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If Gronk caught a TD pass that day it would have broken the NFL rules because he was on the IR.

Had Gronk been available, I'd be a LITTLE more comfortable with the 55-22 pass-run ratio. No Gronk, no Dobson, no Thompkins. Brady had an amazing game under the circumstances, but should not have left the Lamborghini parked in the garage.

Our two TE's were Hoomanawanui (who unexpectedly made the catch of his lifetime) and Mulligan.

What I don't get is why when its 3rd and two and you're on the five yard line you pass? To me its four down territory so you have two shots to run the ball and get just one yard each time. Are we saying that we cannot gain one yard running behind Solder/Mankins with James Develing running ahead of Blount or Ridley? Thats what irritates me its not necessarily the ratio of pass / run but the annoying 3rd and short and you see TB in shot gun formation.

shmessy said:

Bingo, Nunchucks.

That second Miami game was egregious. 55-22 Pass-to-Run ratio while missing their #3 and #4 WRs, and "Ghidorah + Bolden and Develin" were fully available.

Who needs automatic home field advantage throughout the playoffs anyway?

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Like everyone has mentioned though, Brady's play call at the LOS is dictated by what the defense is doing. Much like what we did to Peyton by playing nickel all game and forcing him to call run plays, I see defenses stacking the LOS, putting extra defenders once we start dominating with the run. This is especially evident once we reach the red zone.

This is when McD and Brady has to realize that even when you have extra defenders in the box, running the ball is still a good option, much like what we did against the Ravens. McD needs to be more creative with his playcalling to take advantage of opponents getting too aggressive to stop the run as well. Not just play-action, but also some well timed screens when defenses are getting too aggressive.

But I do agree that our running game needs to be utilized more than what we did in those games that we lost. Our playoff success will coincide with how well we run the ball and how committed we are to doing so.

condon84 said:

Like everyone has mentioned though, Brady's play call at the LOS is dictated by what the defense is doing. Much like what we did to Peyton by playing nickel all game and forcing him to call run plays, I see defenses stacking the LOS, putting extra defenders once we start dominating with the run. This is especially evident once we reach the red zone.

This is when McD and Brady has to realize that even when you have extra defenders in the box, running the ball is still a good option, much like what we did against the Ravens. McD needs to be more creative with his playcalling to take advantage of opponents getting too aggressive to stop the run as well. Not just play-action, but also some well timed screens when defenses are getting too aggressive.

But I do agree that our running game needs to be utilized more than what we did in those games that we lost. Our playoff success will coincide with how well we run the ball and how committed we are to doing so.

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I hear ya, Condon. Let's put that very winnable game against Miami in some further perspective.

The next 2 games for the Dolphins against NON-PLAYOFF teams? 0-2. They were dominated by a combined score of 39-7.

Let's hear it from the "Correlations Does Not = Causation" crowd some more! Folks, the earth is NOT flat.

Buffalo-19
Miami - 0
(Bills Pass-Run ratio? 21-55)

NYJ - 20
Miami-7
(Jets Pass-Run ratio? 28-42)

I cannot help but look at that 55-22 pass-run ratio in a 4 point loss to that team, without Gronk, Dobson and Thompkins, and an excellent healthy RB squad, as just a huge and HFA costly brainfart.

I think in the end you have to find that good mix and as the game plays out you need to go more with what seems to be working the 2-3 series before.

That is more of an innate skill. If you are feeling it then call in that play. Strategy is always a tricky thing and not everyone can successfully implement it...you need a knack for it for sure...

Nunchucks said:

I am sure that Brady has a running play or a passing play that he can check to depending on the defense.

I think that the most obvious example of the team abandoning the run was the 2nd Miami game, where they were up in the first half and got that way by running the ball and they came out in the second half and threw the ball 3 straight times.

They just did not run the ball in the second half at all. This occurred pretty much for all their losses. They stopped running the ball even though they had 3rd quarter leads.

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My fear is that the weather conditions is what brought about the running game plan against Buffalo. Hope I'm wrong because they'll need a significant run game if they're winning in the playoffs.
Also, McDaniels had better be working overtime to devise a successful game plan that works without Julien Edelman. EVERY team the Pats play will focus on Brady's new binky and will look to limit Edelman. Brady is slipping back into a bad habit of focusing on his favorite receiver rather than finding the open guy. This is going to kill this team unless McDaniels gets a handle on this offense and forces Brady to spread the ball around.

As currently constituted the Pats neither have a serious vertical threat unless Dobson is healthy nor a true Red Zone threat unless Hooman turns into Fauria. So they need to play smash mouth, short passes, screens and show chicanery. Plus Amendola is playing at what 70%? Thompkins just came off a hip injury, Boyce is hurt and Dobson's foot is not 100%.

Fortunately (knock on wood) the RBs are healthy and the O Line even minus Vollmer seems strong. I would not be shocked to see formations with Blount, Ridley and Vereen on the field at the same time just to keep Ds guessing.

I do think the Pats should commit to the run, play field position and allow the finally somewhat healthier D and the kicking game win some games.

RIpats88 said:

Vereen, Amendola certainly have the ability to put up big games...look at vereen vs. the browns, he had 150+ yards. or Amendola vs the dolphins. the dolphins made an effort to take out vereen and amendola exploded for 130yards

not to mention a healthy Thompkins, or maybe Dobson if he can overcome this latest foot injury(hopefully they were being more precautionary after he re-injured it) both have the ability to play a solid game


I think if we can run like we have the past 2 weeks(where brady basically played game manager) we are in good shape offensively. I mean we put 30+ points on the ravens/Bills with brady barely passing the ball..that has to make you feel good. because as we saw against the dolphins/browns brady can still move the ball passing

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Amendola appears to be a player who is not a consistent week-to-week type player but he will have a handful of really exceptional games in a season

2013
1. 10 receptions for 104 receiving yards
5. 4 receptions for 55 receiving yards
6. 2 receptions for 0 receiving yards
8. 3 receptions for 15 receiving yards
9. 4 receptions for 122 receiving yards
11. 6 receptions for 45 receiving yards
12. 3 receptions for 17 receiving yards
13. 5 receptions for 54 receiving yards
14. 4 receptions for 36 receiving yards
15. 10 receptions for 131 receiving yards
16. 2 receptions for 45 receiving yards
17. 1 reception for 9 receiving yards

2012
1. 5 receptions for 70 receiving yards
2. 15 receptions for 160 receiving yards
3. 5 receptions for 66 receiving yards
4. 6 receptions for 55 receiving yards
5. 1 reception for 44 receiving yards
10. 11 receptions for 102 receiving yards
11. 7 receptions for 41 receiving yards
12. 1 reception for 38 receiving yards
13. 6 receptions for 58 receiving yards
16. 2 receptions for 5 receiving yards
17. 4 receptions for 27 receiving yards

Some of this is likely associate with injuries; but he maybe a player who just excels in certain matchups and is not as big of factor or non-existent in other matchups. The good news is if he is streaky he has a big game due for a big game right about now.

Deus Irae said:

The Patriots have gone 51-13 (winning percentate: 80%) over the past 4 seasons playing the way they play, yet you think the magic bullet is to run more, and you point to some of the most ridiculous examples possible.




Your lack of understanding on this topic is astounding.

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Happy New Year, Deus!

I've been following your discussion here.

I think this is one of those times when we have to hold two, potentially conflicting ideas in our heads at the same time.

Yes, you are quite correct that correlation is not causation (an updated version of the old, post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy...I thought you'd appreciate that ) and you are also quite correct that the "forumula" adopted by BB and the Pats in recent years has worked a whole heck of a lot more often than it hasn't.

But, I'm inclined to think that this is also a case of "where there's smoke, there's fire." I'm not saying that the Pats lost those four games because of the Run/Pass ratio, but it's also hard to deny that the running game plays a more important role when the receiving weapons are, let's say, "less robust" without Gronkandezker and where the pressure on the O to keep the D off the field is greater without Mayfork on D.

I also think it's fair to suggest that Josh's "default state of mind" is to pass rather than run.

When I think that the Pats could have to play the AFCCG in Denver in a few weeks, where one of the objectives will be to keep Peyton Manning off the field with our at times challenged secondary for as long as possible, I think that I like the idea of three RB's getting half the touches on long, productive possessions and opening things up for TB's brilliance.

Okay, can someone explain to me why our pass run ratio is McDaniels' fault and not Bill's? We were passing a lot when McDaniels first became O-Coordinator under BB's tutelage, we were still passing when he left and O'Brien replaced him, and we are pretty much doing the same the second time round for McDaniels. BB has seen this offense work through the years, it is his system and the O'coordinators are assistants that are implementing exactly what he wants.
The two constants in our system have been Belichick and Brady, no matter who the offensive coordinator is. So if we need to put the blame somewhere, let's put it where it makes sense.

Good to see someone pointing this out.

As for the "correlation and causation" crowd, this is not some kind of coincidence. Short passing, deep passing, running the ball. If you only do 1/3 effectively in a game, you will fail. That is just football.


As for "blaming people"... football is a team game. Not only does the defense playing well have its nominal benefits, but it prevents the offense from panicking and making less than optimal decisions.