Overtime Decision to kick off and take wind, rather than receive and go on offense

SoCal Bong · Nov 25, 2013

A couple of years ago when the new OT rules about a FG not winning the game on the first possession were first implemented in the playoffs, I questioned whether a coach should ever elect something other than to receive (side or kick).

I even ended up making a wager with Neuronet that it would happen within the next 10 OT games which it did not and I paid up by making donations to the NEP Charitable Foundation and to PatsFans.com. I originally wanted 50 games but that just didn't seem practical to track for such a long period and knew that the odds were against me with such a small sample but I agreed anyway because I was so curious to see how it played out.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...c-mistake-electing-receive-ot-i-think-so.html

Of those that chimed in, a few people could see that it might be feasible under the right circumstances but the majority thought the idea was absolutely laughable.

I was thrilled to see BB be the first coach (I think) to make that gutsy and controversial decision and especially to see it work. Can you imagine how hard BB would have been ripped had Denver won the game on the first possession?

I don't expect to see teams start doing this regularly going forward, but the fact the BB did it and succeeded will at least makes that decision a bit easier when the right situation presents itself.

Uncle Rico · Nov 25, 2013

Apparently Marty Mornhinweg made the same call in 2007 (I believe to the day/same date). Totally backfired and he was vilified for it.

This site ranks it as the worst coaching decision in Lions history. And that's saying something.

1. Marty Mornhinweg takes the wind in overtime vs. Bears (2002)

The most misguided coaching call of all-time does, in fact, belong to former Lions head coach Marty Mornhinweg.

With the Lions and Chicago Bears deadlocked at 17 and heading into overtime, the Lions won the OT coin toss, giving them the choice of playing defense or offense. With the NFL's sudden death rules, 99 times out of 100 the team that wins the coin toss will take the ball. Mornhinweg was that one exception.

The Windy City was living up to its nickname on that chilly November day, and Mornhinweg thought that Hanson, one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history, would be better off with the wind at his back. Mornhinweg took the wind and let the Bears have the ball.

Paul Edinger hit a 40-yard field goal on the Bears' first try with the ball. Bears 20, Lions 17.

We'll never know if BB would have made the same decision under the old OT rules.

Ring 6 · Nov 25, 2013

Uncle Rico said:
Apparently Marty Mornhinweg made the same call in 2007 (I believe to the day/same date). Totally backfired and he was vilified for it.

This site ranks it as the worst coaching decision in Lions history. And that's saying something.

We'll never know if BB would have made the same decision under the old OT rules.

I think he would not have. The fact that 3 doesnt end the game has a major impact on that decision.

MrNathanDrake · Nov 25, 2013

I was flipping out at home... but I was in the comfort of a nice heated home, on my cozy sofa.

I didn't feel the powerful and cold WIND like the coaches and players did.

Belichick made the right choice. Most OT's are coming down to FG's, and most teams are not scoring TDs on the first drive anyways

BelichickFan · Nov 25, 2013

I agreed with Barry back then, I didn't think it would be in a Manning game but with an offense limited team I figured it would happen soon enough. Of course, the wind made it comparable to an offense limited team. You trade the risk of a one drive TD to get the wind the rest of the quarter. The most surprising part was the captains looking utterly confused about whether they wanted the ball or not after winning the toss.

The Scrizz · Nov 25, 2013

I was calling for taking the wind. You're talking about a minimum 10 yard swing in FG distance giving the Pats much more field position flexibility.

Plus Peyton was throwing ducks.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Nov 25, 2013

I'm admittedly not in the same football stratosphere as Bill Belichick, but in my peon opinion it was the wrong call. Both teams get at least one possession (provided no TD on the first drive.) That means that the team that gets the ball first will always have at least as many possessions as the team that kicks, and half the time they will get one additional possession. It should have happened this way last night as well. The Patriots and Broncos each had two possessions before that fluke punt recovery. Had this played out without the fluke, it would have been the Broncos having the last chance to win the game, rather than the Patriots, simply because we elected that.

I'm glad it worked out, but I still can't say I concur. End results are not always due to the best decisions (for example, I still agree with the 4th and 2 call.) I guess the extenuating circumstances last night were Manning's struggles going into the wind, but more importantly, the punt/kick game advantage.

Pros of Deferring:

-The wind for special teams (extended punting range and field goal range.)
-The wind for defense (throwing into the wind is more difficult.)

Factors: Manning did not throw well into the wind in general but had just led a TD drive into that same wind. The Broncos offense was mostly getting it done on the ground. Manning was not really effective either way.

Cons of Deferring:
-Potential of allowing first-drive touchdown.
-Decent chance that receiving team gets one extra possession.

Factors: Again, Denver had just scored a touchdown. I don't think that risk was as big as the extra possession, though, which could have very well decided the game.

juxtapoz15 · Nov 25, 2013

I thought the more controversial decision was when BB chose to accept the penalty in OT to make it 3rd and 14 versus 4th and 1. He would have taken plenty of heat if Peyton would have converted on 3rd down.

BradyFTW! · Nov 25, 2013

SoCal Bong said:
A couple of years ago when the new OT rules about a FG not winning the game on the first possession were first implemented in the playoffs, I questioned whether a coach should ever elect something other than to receive (side or kick).

I even ended up making a wager with Neuronet that it would happen within the next 10 OT games which it did not and I paid up by making donations to the NEP Charitable Foundation and to PatsFans.com. I originally wanted 50 games but that just didn't seem practical to track for such a long period and knew that the odds were against me with such a small sample but I agreed anyway because I was so curious to see how it played out.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...c-mistake-electing-receive-ot-i-think-so.html

Of those that chimed in, a few people could see that it might be feasible under the right circumstances but the majority thought the idea was absolutely laughable.

I was thrilled to see BB be the first coach (I think) to make that gutsy and controversial decision and especially to see it work. Can you imagine how hard BB would have been ripped had Denver won the game on the first possession?

I don't expect to see teams start doing this regularly going forward, but the fact the BB did it and succeeded will at least makes that decision a bit easier when the right situation presents itself.

To your (and others' credit) I thought that the idea was ludicrous when it was first stated, and I thought Belichick had screwed up when he made the call last night.

There are a bunch of small advantages that you get by doing it. Aside from the wind, you also know exactly what you're playing for when you come up on offense. If the opposing team didn't put up any points, you can just play for the FG, and if they got the FG then you know it's TD-or-die. That's a non-trivial edge. But, in my mind, that's all outweighed by the fact that the team that gets the ball first can end the game without you ever getting it.

Turns out that Belichick disagrees, and it sure worked out last night.

By the way, in light of these overtime rules, did anyone else find this postgame quote by Manning to be pretty funny?:

"Hated the way that ended, not getting a chance to get our hands on the ball," Manning said. "We helped them with some short fields. It's hard to do that to our defense."

Uhh... you got the ball twice in overtime, Peyton, including the opening drive. You just couldn't do **** with it.

yukon cornelius · Nov 25, 2013

name another HOF QB.....even under those conditions.....that you would give the ball to under those circumstances

flip the scripts......wopuld you have given brady the ball and dare him to put it in the endzone to beat you?

it isn't just the new rules.....it is also mannings record in the cold, and the fact that other than 2-3 really solid throws (including the Tamme TD at the end of the first), he was pretty inept last night

BB gave the ball to a first ballot HOF QB and dared him to win the game.....predictably, Manning couldn't

Boogs · Nov 25, 2013

I liked the call too (going with the wind). It's a calculated risk and it worked. But I thought it was a very smart move. Peyton Manning unable to throw spirals outdoors in the freezing cold. Balls like that hang up there forever and you know there is no chance he'll go deep on you.

terabthia2 · Nov 25, 2013

juxtapoz15 said:
I thought the more controversial decision was when BB chose to accept the penalty in OT to make it 3rd and 14 versus 4th and 1. He would have taken plenty of heat if Peyton would have converted on 3rd down.

Wow. The more I think about it, the more it feels like, essentially, that Bill was saying with his actions "You're TOAST, Peyton! You're toast and choking in the clutch. And I'm going to say so with my actions until you prove me otherwise!"

Now we just need some Manning-worshipping mediot to chime in about how bad ol' Bill was "disrespecting" Manning. :bricks:

PatsDeb · Nov 25, 2013

FWIW, Ghost could not make a FG into the wind from the 30 yard line during practice. They were falling about 10 yds. short. So, BB probably figured the Broncos had to get to the 20 to be fairly sure of making it. Prater is a good kicker though, and there's always the possibility that Manning would actually drive all the way down the field, as he just did it to tie the game. BB definitely has cojones!!

PatsDeb · Nov 25, 2013

terabthia2 said:
Wow. The more I think about it, the more it feels like, essentially, that Bill was saying with actions "You're TOAST, Peyton! You're toast and choking in the clutch. And I'm going to say so with my actions until you prove me otherwise!"

Manning was playing pretty bad, except for the one TD drive late. They kept running out of the spread, making good yardage then stalling at mid-field when Manning tried to throw.

yukon cornelius · Nov 25, 2013

not only was manning physically poor last night, save for a few throws, he was thoroughly confused much of the night

excellent job disguising coverages and changing coverages as manning audibled

Sciz · Nov 25, 2013

PatsDeb said:
FWIW, Ghost could not make a FG into the wind from the 30 yard line during practice. They were falling about 10 yds. short. So, BB probably figured the Broncos had to get to the 20 to be fairly sure of making it. Prater is a good kicker though, and there's always the possibility that Manning would actually drive all the way down the field, as he just did it to tie the game. BB definitely has cojones!!

Good to know. I didn't catch all of Peyton's press conference afterward (trying to watch Brady's simultaneously), but I think he said that they wanted another five yards to try the field goal in overtime, meaning that if Collins doesn't knock the ball away from Welker, then they would have attempted that FG. Sounds like the Broncos may have gotten a break, as a punt gives their defense better field position than a missed FG.

Boogs · Nov 25, 2013

It's unbelieveable that the media doesn't recognize Manning's glaring weakness. They want to prop him up so bad that Collinsworth has to draw attention to him when he throws a spiral like it's some wonderful thing he did. Isn't that a given? That an NFL qb should throw spirals? Especially when you pay a guy 19 mil a year. Manning couldn't get it 30 yds downfield at times (if that). BB knew that and it was a smart decision IMO.

sly24 · Nov 25, 2013

I'm not gonna lie I thought BB had completely lost his mind. Every time this happens I tell myself well I'm never gonna question BB again yet I still do. I never learn.

SVN · Nov 25, 2013

Belichick goes into detail on wind decision | Comcast SportsNet - CSNNE.com

jmt57 · Nov 25, 2013

It Is What It Is » Bill Belichick takes a chance to start overtime and it pays off

The Broncos were forced to punt. Chalk one up to Belichick. His decision to take the wind, howling out of the north all game long at 25 MPH on a brutally cold night, went from unorthodox to uncanny.

“The wind, it was a strong wind,” Belichick said. “We just had to keep the out of the end zone, obviously. I just felt like the wind would be an advantage if we could keep them out of the end zone on that first drive. We were able to do that. The wind was significant in the game, it was definitely significant.”

Defying odds, Bill Belichick went for the wind - Sports - The Boston Globe

It would have been easy to scream bloody hell at Belichick for not taking the ball — and if the Broncos had scored a touchdown on the opening drive, we’d absolutely be criticizing Belichick in this space. But Belichick was down on the sideline, and had a lot of factors on his side that Mornhinweg didn’t.

For one, the overtime rules have since changed. The Patriots knew they’d get the ball as long as they kept the Broncos out of the end zone on the first drive of overtime. New England had allowed just 7 points on six second-half Broncos possessions to that point.

And being at field level, Belichick felt the 20-plus-mile-per-hour winds whipping across the frigid turf, and saw the wind’s effect. All night long, kickoffs, punts, and long passes were knocked down near the north end zone, where strong winds funneled through the opening in Gillette Stadium’s stands.

Taking the wind would give the Patriots the edge on field goals, and take 50-yard field goals out of the Broncos’ equation. Taking the wind also meant that Manning, with his weakened throwing arm, would be limited to short throws.

“The wind was significant in the game. It was definitely significant,” Belichick said. “We just had to keep them out of the end zone, obviously.”

But as it turned out, the most significant advantage was in the punting game. Denver’s Britton Colquitt hit a 22-yarder into the wind with 3:01 left in overtime, giving the Patriots the ball at the 19 instead of pinning them against their end zone.

Less than a minute later, New England punter Ryan Allen was able to boom a nice, high-arcing 42-yard punt that gave the Patriots’ coverage unit plenty of time to run downfield. Wes Welker, who only had four catches for 31 yards, finally made an impact in the game — just not the one his team was hoping for.

Ben Volin:

Belichick had an extra long conversation with his captains, to make sure they understood he wanted the wind in OT:

"To tell you the truth, the whole situation was a little bit confusing because when I told the captains that, there was a little bit of a question of, are you talking about deferring. I was like, ‘No, we’re not deferring, we’re taking the wind period.’ ‘Well, is that if they take the ball?’ ‘No, it’s not if they take the ball.’ We actually, with the captains, had a little bit of a conversation that they had right what I wanted to do, because it was a little bit of an, obviously, unusual type of situation. They were doing a good job. They just wanted to make sure that they had the decision that we felt was best and we got it. It was not one of the normal ones."

Belichick really did think of everything last night. His explanation for why they took a knee twice before GW FG:

"Well, really at that point, we felt like the best thing to do was protect the situation as much as possible. Look, you like to make those kicks and the ball was in the middle and all that. But anything can happen in football, especially with the conditions being what they were, we definitely wanted to kick on third down. When we sent the field goal team in to kick on second down and they used their last timeout, it kind of gave me a little more time to look at the situation and I probably should have made that decision in the first place. Had the kick not been good, then there’s no reason to give any more time on the clock in overtime than was necessary. By kneeling on the ball and taking it to the two-minute warning, it wiped out what would have been a little bit of extra time that had they gotten the ball back, it would have just given them less time to operate in, without any timeouts. We were trying to protect the situation as much as we could. I really should have done that and not sent the field goal team out there on second down. I really should have done that in the first place, but I just didn’t think of it quickly enough."

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