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Underdogs against Carolina - love it!


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All lines for CAR are juiced while each NE line is either even money or higher. CAR is favored whether you like it or not. Books are expecting CAR to win.

lmao thats not how vegas works at all.
 
The one thing i worry about is containing the rushing attack, which could open up the play-action. Without Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo we are in the bottom 1/3rd in yards before contact. It will be interesting to see what BB does to stop Cam from running or if he just doesn't care about that.
 
The one thing i worry about is containing the rushing attack, which could open up the play-action. Without Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo we are in the bottom 1/3rd in yards before contact. It will be interesting to see what BB does to stop Cam from running or if he just doesn't care about that.

He'll probably employ the same scheme that he did vs. other mobile QB's like Tebow, Kaepernick, etc. Set the edge, maintain two gap discipline up front, keep him in the pocket, and make him become a pocket passer while taking away his primary read. It's Carolina's RB's that worry me more than Newton.
 
He'll probably employ the same scheme that he did vs. other mobile QB's like Tebow, Kaepernick, etc. Set the edge, maintain two gap discipline up front, keep him in the pocket, and make him become a pocket passer while taking away his primary read. It's Carolina's RB's that worry me more than Newton.

Bolded might be easier said than done with the DTs that we currently have.
 
on a neutral field they would be favored....heck, we aren't even getting 3 (which is typically homefield).

That used to be the case, not quite so much anymore. Home field advantage isn't worth as much as it used to be, and the books suffered for continuing that assumption for years before they finally started dialing it back. Even now, you can still win a pretty decent chunk of money by just taking the underdog against the spread in every game. It really crested over the last 2 years.

Vegas is slowly wising up, though, and part of that is that HFA is no longer worth a full three point swing, unless you're dealing with a team that has an especially harsh home/road split like Seattle.

What Home Field Advantage Means In The NFL [SPORTS CHART OF THE DAY] - Business Insider

In fact, check this out:

The Complete Guide to What Home Field Advantage is Worth in the NFL

Since the Panthers came into the league, their home field advantage has been the least valuable in the NFL. Vegas notices these things.

Also, the Pats are a public team, which means they typically give an extra point or two by default, because Joe Blow just bets on good, well-known teams and/or his favorite team. The same effect can be observed with the Cowboys, Packers, and Steelers.
 
lmao thats not how vegas works at all.
I'm simply saying you get lesser odds on bets a book thinks they'll have to pay on. Or they're trying to get money on the other side.
 
I'm simply saying you get lesser odds on bets a book thinks they'll have to pay on. Or they're trying to get money on the other side.

Or they're trying to get relatively equal payout on both sides of the line. Sometimes changing the payout is better than moving the line where the book has to cross a key point and stands to lose money on both sides of a likely outcome.

Example: the line starts at Panthers -2.5, a bunch of early money pushes it to -3. Not a ton of action, so you move it to -3.5, where a bunch of late money comes in. Panthers win by 3, and the books end up having to pay out on both the early money and the late money, while the small amount of money in the middle pushes. If they really want to avoid that risk, it's better to juice the payout to discourage taking the Panthers at -2.5 and encourage taking the Pats at +2.5. If you're successful, it dramatically limits the book's exposure.
 
Bolded might be easier said than done with the DTs that we currently have.

I agree that Jones and Vellano aren't ideal in that regard, but any time the defense has been ripped by a mobile QB this season, it's been because one of our DE's (three times by Buchanan, by my count) have pushed too far upfield leaving a wide open running lane. The run by Geno Smith in the second Jets game is a perfect example of that.
 
Its pretty understandable the Pats being underdogs this week. No defense in the league has been as effective in keeping points off the board in the last 5 weeks, while the Pats D has been hammered with key injuries. And one effective game on offense is not going to make people forget how inconsistent and ineffective the offense has been prior to the Steeler game.

Frankly I love the underdog role. This will be a great test for where our offense has progressed thus far. Anything more than 24 points by the offense against this defense will show that the Steeler game was no fluke and the offense is coming along just fine

What I'm still having trouble with is how we are going to stop other people's running games. Valano and Jones have done yoeman's work and have far exceeded everyone's expectations. But the fact is there were a dozen or more guys who are at the same talent level as these guys who were cut this year from teams with more talent on the DL. God bless them for making the most of their opportunities, but the fact is they are a match up nightmare for Patricia when he goes against any of the better OLs

The loss of Mayo only exacerbates the Kelly and Wilfolk losses, especially in coverage. He was the brains and tackling machine who covered up a lot of mistakes in front of him. Very underrated by many in the media and here.

Hopefully getting Talib back will allow the Pats to add that extra guy into the running game and help protect the DT's and LB's some. The downside of that is, with a rookie S likely getting the start, we could see the Pats susceptible to play action passing on Monday.

I think the win here will come more from the extra preparation we will have this week than anything else. Be solid, don't turn the ball over and play better special teams. I don't see a lot of sacks this week because so much effort will be spent keeping Newton in the pocket. So the game will be frustrating in that vein. On the other hand, I think we are going to attack the Carolina secondary, and I expect to see a return to the screen game and the "Welker routes" from Amendola and Edelman.

I agree. If the Pats can't stop the run, this game could get out of hand quickly. Also, the Pats must commit to running the ball. If they don't, they will be in trouble. The key in this game is Ridley (and McDaniel really). He has to get yards and hold on to the ball.
 
I agree that Jones and Vellano aren't ideal in that regard, but any time the defense has been ripped by a mobile QB this season, it's been because one of our DE's (three times by Buchanan, by my count) have pushed too far upfield leaving a wide open running lane. The run by Geno Smith in the second Jets game is a perfect example of that.

True, but as you pointed out it's been almost entirely on Buchanan pretty much every time he's happened, and he's now a bit player at best in the rotation. I'm confident that Chandler Jones (when he's playing DE), Ninkovich, and Carter if he plays--I assume Belichick signed him with exactly this kind of game in mind--can all handle their gap responsibilities at DE.

I'm less confident that our DTs can maintain two-gap responsibility. The one thing that they can do is collapse the pocket, which is always valuable but probably less valuable against Newton than any other quarterback, since he's really good at absorbing hits, escaping the pocket, and throwing on the run, or just running it up the middle if he has a lane. The one thing that they do well also happens to be the one thing that Newton can most effectively counter.
 
I would love it if I thought it had no basis. Carolina has a stout defense, the type that gives the Pats fits. Our defense needs to really step it up for us to win it, is my prediction.

I am going to buy a ticket to the game to add my voice in person. Unfortunately, nobody will go with me that I know (I'm in Durham NC) so I will be that weird dude sitting by myself in a Pats sweatshirt (not a jersey, as I still have only got a Welker jersey).

Anyone else here going?

My daughter and I are going, I promised her before the schedule came out last spring. I figure it the last time I see Brady and the only time she will see Brady play in a regular season game here. I've seen every game the Pats have played here.

I'm really hoping for a Pats win..... won't be surprised if they don't...dissapointed but not surprised
 
I would love it if I thought it had no basis. Carolina has a stout defense, the type that gives the Pats fits. Our defense needs to really step it up for us to win it, is my prediction.

I am going to buy a ticket to the game to add my voice in person. Unfortunately, nobody will go with me that I know (I'm in Durham NC) so I will be that weird dude sitting by myself in a Pats sweatshirt (not a jersey, as I still have only got a Welker jersey).

Anyone else here going?


I'll be at the game, I have family in Charlotte
 
My two cents....

Typically when we expect a nice tight game, the patriots usually find a way to blow out the other team...

This game actually reminds me of the texans Monday night game last year
 
I agree. If the Pats can't stop the run, this game could get out of hand quickly. Also, the Pats must commit to running the ball. If they don't, they will be in trouble. The key in this game is Ridley (and McDaniel really). He has to get yards and hold on to the ball.

they key is Brady, Carolina has a stout run defense and a below average secondary
 
Or they're trying to get relatively equal payout on both sides of the line. Sometimes changing the payout is better than moving the line where the book has to cross a key point and stands to lose money on both sides of a likely outcome.

Example: the line starts at Panthers -2.5, a bunch of early money pushes it to -3. Not a ton of action, so you move it to -3.5, where a bunch of late money comes in. Panthers win by 3, and the books end up having to pay out on both the early money and the late money, while the small amount of money in the middle pushes. If they really want to avoid that risk, it's better to juice the payout to discourage taking the Panthers at -2.5 and encourage taking the Pats at +2.5. If you're successful, it dramatically limits the book's exposure.
Yes, that's what I meant by getting money on the other side (i.e. limit their potential losses). Thank you for the explanation, too.
 
My daughter and I are going, I promised her before the schedule came out last spring. I figure it the last time I see Brady and the only time she will see Brady play in a regular season game here. I've seen every game the Pats have played here.

I'm really hoping for a Pats win..... won't be surprised if they don't...dissapointed but not surprised
My best buddy has lived in Charlotte for many years. Lots of nights years ago hitting the spots on South Blvd. and Tyvola.
 
frankly as a panther fan, I'd prefer it if the pats were favored.

I don't think anyone should be predicting either team to dominate.

The Panthers are favoured by 1 point. In what world does that mean they are predicted to "dominate"?
 
panthers are the team du jour that the pats will take out in their usual fashion.

they like to give up game winning drives to opposing QB's
 
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