Hey guys -- I'm not around much, but when Pitt and NE play I try to do one of these writeups here, just to share some Steelers info ahead of the game.
I'll say this right off the top: I don't think we're a good football team, but I also don't think we're quite as bad talent-wise as the record says. We're like a lot of teams with lousy records -- we have talent in some areas, and maybe with a bit better luck--and fewer injuries in key spots--we'd have a couple more wins.
But the bottom line is that this is a flawed team that is not playing well, and is not deep enough to overcome the defections and injuries it has sustained.
Steelers D - Front 7
A lot has been made of the lack of production at ROLB, which has essentially been a platoon between Jason Worlids and 1st rounder Jarvis Jones. This *is* a big deal, although Lamar Woodley's return to form mitigates this somewhat. Rookies simply shouldn't start in this complex of a defense, and Jones--for all his physical talent--has not generated consistent pressure and is frequently out of position. He's been benched for Worlids, who will make no one forget a circa 2008 James Harrison.
That said, the main problem IMHO has been the uncharacteristically weak run defense, which in the bottom third of the league. Steve McClendon has not been consistent at NT, but it's much more than that...frankly we seem out of position and borderline undisciplined frequently. Part of this has to do with losing Larry Foote, who made all of the defensive calls, and replacing him with a rookie (Vince Williams). I'm sure part is due to having two rookies plus other new starters on D.
Regardless, the run defense is light years away from what it was last year, and teams are getting good production on early downs AND gashing Pitt for big running plays.
Steelers D - Secondary
Our pass defense is ranked very highly, but this is a bit misleading. For one, teams have had success running the ball...they don't have to throw. In addition, teams have repeatedly beat us on critical pass plays (3rd and longs or key possessions in the game). It seems that when the stakes are high, the pass D comes up small.
I believe both Ike Taylor and Ryan Clark have had down years, which may simply be aging. (Note that Troy is back in shape and has been superb...he's not part of the problem IMHO). CB Cortez Allen, who we still have high hopes for, has been nicked frequently and has been inconsistent. And of course the entire secondary has been hurt by a meager pass rush outside of Woodley.
Finally, the entire defense has been at a disadvantage by the simple fact that Pitt has played from behind almost the entire year. Certainly the defense contributes to that, but there have been precious few opportunities to "pin their ears back". On those rare instances where we have had the lead (Jets game), they've looked more like the Steelers D we're used to seeing.
NE Offense vs Pitt Defense
This presents an interesting choice for the Pats, strategy-wise--while I'm sure there's a desire to get the passing game going, the reality is that Pittsburgh is soft against the run. Savvy as BB is, I'd expect a heavy workload for your RBs, running straight at McClendon and our rookie ILB. I'm guessing that's exactly what LeBeau does NOT want -- he would like to get out of the base defense (which takes McClendon and Williams out) and get into specialty packages (which essentially subs in an extra CB and safety--rookie Sharmarko Thomas--and leaves Timmons in the middle of the field alongside TP, who basically functions as a LB).
So basically, while I think NE would *prefer* to throw the ball, and Pitt would prefer to be in their pass subs package, the fact is that Pitt's lousy run D may force the game to be a grinder, with more base run packages on both sides.
If NE does decide to spread it out, it will be an interesting chess match. If you recall, Lebeau had great success in 2011 against NE. In that game, Pitt played press coverage and put Cortez Allen across from Gronk...it turned out to be very effective. Woodley was a terror that game before leaving injured. It's hard to say if such a strategy would work again, given how different Pitt's D is today....That said, the one advantage I would give Pitt on D would be a resurgent Woodley against Vollmer's RT replacement.
Steelers Offense
Any discussion of the Steelers offense starts and ends with the line.
The deal is this: 1) we have a major talent deficiency at LT; 2) we do not have NFL quality depth on the OL; 3) we have had major injury issues on the OL that have only exacerbated the first two issues; 4) on top of everything else, we've had communications and assignment issues that frequently defenders unblocked.
We lost our top 3 guards in the OAK game; whether any of them can go Sunday will be a major factor in Pitt's ability to stay competitive. DeCastro is our best lineman; our run game suffers without him. And if LG Foster can't go, Beachum (an average LT at best to begin with) kicks inside, and Mike Adams starts at LT...and Mike Adams has quite literally been just about the worst LT in football this year, both from an "eye test" perspective, and actual grading (Pro Football Focus). FWIW Velasco has been a capable replacement at center (although obviously we miss the IR'd Pouncey).
I actually think the Steelers are fine at the skill positions. I don't think Miller is all the way back, but he's getting there. They're very high on Le'Veon Bell, and I think the enthusiasm is justified--he's a patient, 3 down, big back with quick feet and power. Ben has been skewered for ball protection issues, but I don't think this criticism has been coming from people who've actually watched the games (if they had, they would see a consistent jailbreak and Ben running for his life...a statue pocket passer like Peyton would have been broken in half on IR by now).
In any event, it's really hard to evaluate the skill guys when the OL play has been so poor and disjointed; they can't pass block, and with the exception of the Ravens game they haven't been able to open running lanes.
Steelers Offense vs Pats D
I confess I know little about the state of the Pats D aside from the injuries they've suffered to Mayo and Wilfork. If Pitt can get Foster and DeCastro back, I would expect to see them attack the middle with Bell like they did against the Ravens. They really have no choice but to try this--they can't reliably have Ben pass 40 or 50 times in a game because the linemen have proven they can't hold their blocks.
From the Patriots perspective, if they can simply stop the run I expect they'll create major problems for Pitt's pass protection, just like every other team has. They should blitz creatively and make Pitt's linemen prove they can be sound in their assignments (which they haven't been). OTOH, if Adams has to play at LT, the Pats can also probably get away with rushing 4 while still getting consistent pressure. Adams is a turnstile. RT Marcus Gilbert has had issues as well (although to be fair, his play has improved of late).
That all said, Pitt *does* have competent skill position players. They've been uneven, but if Pitt's OL does somehow create a pocket, Ben, Brown and Sanders (along with Miller underneath) can hurt defenses. But the shaky line play has had a major effect on the play-calling, which emphasizes quick passes (WR bubble screens, plus more swing passes to Bell of late). So a lot of Pitt's potential explosiveness is negated by Haley's (understandable) efforts to protect a weak line.
Final Thoughts
I think this has been a poor year all around for Pittsburgh--and this includes the coaching, top to bottom. The overall play has been disjointed. There have many instances of the defense not getting lined up properly, or inexplicably leaving gap assignments. (Exhibit A: take a look at Pryor's 93 yard run last week!) The OL can't seem to figure out which blitzers to block. Even Ben and the wideouts seem like they're on a different page a couple times a game.
If they could get these basics sorted out, I think Pitt could at least be an average team--maybe even a team that could put a scare into a team like NE on Sunday. But considering the fact they haven't done this all year--plus factoring in their desperate OL situation--I have a hard time envisioning a win for Pitt this Sunday. I think NE will run, get a lead, and leave Pitt playing catch-up, which will in turn lead to turnovers and mistakes.
I hope I'm wrong here, but:
NE 30-10
lillloyd
. Its going to come down to the final mins IMO. And if pitt takes a lead like miami did vs us , I dont think they let up like miami did.They have a better QB and a better defense.
