Idle thoughts - The confused edition

Rob0729 said:

I don't know if it is Brady or the schemes, but there is something wrong if Brady is throwing to Gronk into triple coverage. If there are three guys on Gronk, there has to be someone else open. And if not, they are not using the offense correctly to take advantage of all that coverage directed towards Gronk.

Click to expand...

wouldn't BB do this if he had to go against the pats? take out their best weapon and make others beat you. i imagine Gronk will still get double/triple teamed until Brady starts hitting his other targets consistently.

Fencer said:

My guess is that Ridley is on a limited-carries count. It may be more approximate than pitch counts in baseball are, but it's something along those lines.

By the way -- he did get 20 carries today, on the nose.

Click to expand...

Ridley had 14 carries for 79 yards.

Watch Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots [10/27/2013] - NFL.com

patfanken said:

The Bottom line here is that NOTHING in this offense is consistent. Gronk has a huge game against the Jets, then almost disappears in the Dolphin game. The same can be said for almost every skill player. All have shown occasional flashes of brilliance only to disappear the next game

Click to expand...

I agree about the inconsistency of the offense, but the question about Gronkowski is best answered by watching him on his routes against Miami. The Dolphins basically decided that Gronkowski was not going to have a big day and double-teamed on every play, sometimes triple teaming him. They did a good job holding him to two catches and getting the early interception.

But that begs the question about why the other guys weren't finding open spaces for Brady to throw them the ball. This is a work in progress, for certain. The inconsistency of the personnel is leading to a lot of issues. It would be nice to have three weeks of the same receiving corps in practice and the games.

I've seen nothing so far that hints at one of the skill players getting dinged up yesterday, so maybe the same package will be on the field against the Steelers.

Rob0729 said:

He is also the guy who got this offense to run very well with Matt Cassel as the QB in 2008 and he made Kyle Orton look like a very good QB one year in Denver. I think McDaniels is far better than you give him credit for.

And talent evaluation has nothing to do with being a good or great coordinator. If talent evaluation was an indicator how good of a coach you are, Belichick certainly wouldn't be one of greatest head coaches of all time. I think he is an above average talent evaluator, but certainly not at the level he is as a head coach.

Click to expand...

Don't forget that he wanted to trade for Matt Cassell and ship Cutler. Another great evaluation

oldskool138 said:

"Now I don’t think that Josh woke up one morning and suddenly forgot how to be an offensive genius."

I don't think he ever was one. This is a guy who thought Tim Tebow was first round talent. I think he made a name for himself with HoF caliber players like Wes Welker, Brady and Moss which he leveraged into a head coaching job.

Click to expand...

He also picked Moreno, Demarious Thomas, Julius Thomas, and I think Decker was his pick too. Some of the key pieces of Denver's success are based on players McD brought in.

No one is 100% on player evaluation but to judge McD only on Tebow is a mistake. Just like judging BB only on Chad Jackson would be a mistake.

marian said:

Don't forget that he wanted to trade for Matt Cassell and ship Cutler. Another great evaluation

Click to expand...

We don't what happened there between Cutler and McD, but I think Cutler's history has proven his attitude is, at best mercurial, and at worst cancerous. for all of Cutlers physical gifts, what has he done? He reminds me of Jeff George.

Don't forget how well Cassell developed during his final year in NE and he played well when Weis was the OC in KC.

I am not saying Cassell is a better QB than Cutler but I think Cutler shot his way out of Denver because he was immature and didn't want to have to compete for his job.

McD deserves blame for allowing his interest in Cassell to become public but that doesn't mean he thought Cassell was a better QB than Cutler. It means he wasn't completely sold on Cutler.

marian said:

Don't forget that he wanted to trade for Matt Cassell and ship Cutler. Another great evaluation

Click to expand...

I don't know if that was as bad you make it out to be. Cutler was and is an expensive headache who has a $100 million arm and a ten cent head. Other than one year, what has the Bears done with him? Getting rid of Cutler was ultimately the right thing. And they probably wouldn't have Manning right now if they didn't.

I also think Cassel might have been a good starter with the right coaching.

Again though, what does personnel moves have to do with being an OC? Many of the best OCs this league have seen couldn't even handle being a good head coach, never mind a good GM.

juny said:

wouldn't BB do this if he had to go against the pats? take out their best weapon and make others beat you. i imagine Gronk will still get double/triple teamed until Brady starts hitting his other targets consistently.

Click to expand...

Yes, the Pats would try to take away Gronk, but they usually do something like that by sacrificing something else. For example, they went into Atlanta with the purpose of stopping Julio Jones. They did that, but they did it at the expense of letting Gonzalez have a big game.

Yesterday, the Dolphins took away Gronk, but they didn't really sacrifice it by allowing Brady go elsewhere. Brady forced it to Gronk.

Besides the Ridley benching is some of the wr sets being used. It just seemed like Edelman and Amendola together wasn't working. In comes Dobson as a deep threat and it seemed to open things up a bit. I'm not sure if it was the pass coverage getting better or the having another respected deep threat along with the heavy coverage on Gronkowski?

Rob0729 said:

Yes, the Pats would try to take away Gronk, but they usually do something like that by sacrificing something else. For example, they went into Atlanta with the purpose of stopping Julio Jones. They did that, but they did it at the expense of letting Gonzalez have a big game.

Yesterday, the Dolphins took away Gronk, but they didn't really sacrifice it by allowing Brady go elsewhere. Brady forced it to Gronk.

Click to expand...

At least in the Atlanta game, they readjusted and double-teamed jammed Gonzalez on the line at the end of the game.

There was a little more balance on pass targets yesterday compared to the Jets game. They will have to make teams pay for the extra coverage on Gronk going forward

Rob0729 said:

Yes, the Pats would try to take away Gronk, but they usually do something like that by sacrificing something else. For example, they went into Atlanta with the purpose of stopping Julio Jones. They did that, but they did it at the expense of letting Gonzalez have a big game.

Yesterday, the Dolphins took away Gronk, but they didn't really sacrifice it by allowing Brady go elsewhere. Brady forced it to Gronk.

Click to expand...

I think Brady is in his comfort zone with Gronk. He looks first to Gronk, then Edelman, then all the new guys.

If he has to wait for his third or fourth option, he's out of time and throwing a bad pass or getting sacked.

Rob0729 said:

I don't know if it is Brady or the schemes, but there is something wrong if Brady is throwing to Gronk into triple coverage. If there are three guys on Gronk, there has to be someone else open. And if not, they are not using the offense correctly to take advantage of all that coverage directed towards Gronk.

My guess is that it is more on Brady than McDaniels. I don't think the Dolphins would consistently double and triple team Gronk if they thought Brady would throw elsewhere. I think the Dolphins saw that Brady really looked in Gronk's direction the week before and decided to let Brady have other options, but not Gronk. In the first half, it worked.

I think Brady's biggest weakness as a QB is that if he doesn't trust you, he gives up on you. He is more patient this year than most years, but there were times over the last two weeks that he forced the balls to Gronk when other guys were wide open.

Click to expand...

Great point on TB still throwing @ a target when that target is blanketed.

Actually I should say 'seems to be blanketed' because we are watching the TV from an angle that makes it obvious, but could very well not be for the split second that the QB sees it, especially under pressure. (Or, he might still throw if he is confident that the target will somehow catch the ball.)

Does anyone know if TB was asked this question in a PC and also what his response was?

I am sure he was asked about this considering that this issue started with Moss back in '07, right?

ivanvamp said:

For the last 6 years or so, I've been begging the Patriots to build a team that can win when Tom Brady doesn't play well. I have wanted a team that can win various styles - from a shootout to a grinder. I have wanted to see them get to the point where their defense and special teams can win a game for them if they have to.

And lookee here, isn't that pretty much what we have? They've won with offense (448 yards, 30 points in Atlanta). They've won with defense (13-10 win over the Jets). They've won when Brady has played well (vs. Atlanta). They've won when he hasn't played well (vs. Jets, vs. Dolphins). Heck, yesterday they won with the running game out gaining the passing game by 52 yards!

It's very, very strange to watch this Patriots team right now. Every game is tense. There's no sense that they're just going to destroy their opponent like we've had in the past 6 years or so. Every game is a struggle. But you know what? They're winning. 6-2 with a very manageable schedule could lead them to a 12-4 record. Which, given their circumstances, would be amazing.

Click to expand...

Agree with this completely. Just look at the recent playoff losses if teams slowed the passing offense we were done. Just totally and completely finished. This year feels very different. I suspect when Brady is finally healthy this team is going to be a real tough out come January.

Ken, great analysis as usual.
==============

DEFENSE - OVERALL

This a top 10 defense even without Wilfork and Mayo. Hopefully, Talib and kelly will be back soon (and also Arrington).

DEFENSE - SECONDARY

This is the best secondary in many years. I agree that it is not too early to congratulate Belichick on his drafting of Ryan. Even without Talib and Arrington (2 of our major free agent signings), the secondary was fine. The corners were fine even with Dennard, Ryan and Cole. The safety play has been pro-bowl quality all year. That being said, it would good to see at least one of them back soon.


DEFENSE - LINEBACKERS

Hightower just hasn't improved as much as some of us expected. He's still a solid linebacker. BTW, it was good to see Fletcher doing well with his reps. And Spikes is really awesome against the run.

DEFENSE - LINE

The continuing performances by Vellano and Chris Jones has been truly amazing. Clearly, we need someone bigger inside, but they have played very well indeed. Chandler Jones and Ninkovich have continued with their excellent play. Carter replaced Buchanan without much notice. Hopefully, we'll see more from Carter as the season progresses. If not, at least he will be in there not making rookie mistakes.

Who would have thought that the DL would be a strength with Wilfork and Kelly out?

Rob0729 said:

I don't know if it is Brady or the schemes, but there is something wrong if Brady is throwing to Gronk into triple coverage. If there are three guys on Gronk, there has to be someone else open. And if not, they are not using the offense correctly to take advantage of all that coverage directed towards Gronk.

My guess is that it is more on Brady than McDaniels. I don't think the Dolphins would consistently double and triple team Gronk if they thought Brady would throw elsewhere. I think the Dolphins saw that Brady really looked in Gronk's direction the week before and decided to let Brady have other options, but not Gronk. In the first half, it worked.

I think Brady's biggest weakness as a QB is that if he doesn't trust you, he gives up on you. He is more patient this year than most years, but there were times over the last two weeks that he forced the balls to Gronk when other guys were wide open.

Click to expand...

And do you mean that he has also given up on McD as a play caller? My guess is he has. McD sits by him on the bench but a few times it's looked like McD had to really get his attention for whatever he had to say. And this is a big difference from the way CW operated as an OC.

patfanken said:

I had a router problem that Comcast couldn’t fix for about a week so I’ve been missing.
...
10. The Pats certainly got the benefit of a few good calls today. The PI on Gronk in the first half was a pure gift. That wasn’t even close.

Click to expand...

Good stuff, Ken. You were missed. I'm short on time today, as has been the case lately, so rather than read the full thread (hope I don't reiterate anyone else's thoughts here), but I wanted to comment on this one, because it tickled me so much during the game.

I jumped up in real time laughing calling for the pass interference that I didn't see. Jimmy Wilson undercut Gronk beautifully, but there was an unfortunate (for him) collision of shoulder pads that made a huge popping sound as he made his play on the ball. It sounded for all the world that he had gone through Gronk to get the ball, even though it was glancing contact at most. We needed that call, and I was only too happy to see the undeserved flag. :singing:

THE OFFENSE - RUNNING BACKS

I agree that Ridley should have more reps. I agree with managing them. I disagree with those who would abandon the RBBC approach.

THE OFFENSE - PLAY-CALLING AND SCHEMES

Josh tried the normal offense earlier in the year. He has been trying to adapt to the new receivers who simply don't seem to be able to grasp routes in the way that was expected last year. Josh has been gradually trying to go back to the normal offense. Thompkins is just lost. Dobson has been doing much better.

We'll see where we are after the bye. If Amendola and Gronk are available at 100% (they are now being managed), then we should see what we are capable of. Also, Vereen would be back.

Brady needs to be able to run the no-huddle for a whole series. He started it a bit this last half. Brady needs to be able to throw to a spot, KNOWING that he and and his receivers have evaluated the defense in the same way and are on the same pattern. It remains to be seen whether Dobson can reach that point this soon.

In any case, I don't think the problem is Josh. The problem is the skill set of those who are able to play. For the most part that could be corrected going into the stretch after the bye.

Most of the time when Ridley is out there he kick starts the offense. The drives flow much better when we see him consistently picking up 5, 6, 7 yards each time. Give most of Bolden's carries to Ridley. On third and short I always feel comfortable handing it off to Ridley. I certainly can't say the same for the other two.

1) Your assumption is that if Ridley gets twice the number of reps, he will still average the same YPC.

2) Bolden is in there because he is the best in pass protection.

I do agree that Ridley should get more reps, a few from both Bolden and Blount.

Kdo5 said:

Most of the time when Ridley is out there he kick starts the offense. The drives flow much better when we see him consistently picking up 5, 6, 7 yards each time. Give most of Bolden's carries to Ridley. On third and short I always feel comfortable handing it off to Ridley. I certainly can't say the same for the other two.

Click to expand...

SacPete1 said:

Would love to hear BB mic'd for that second half and in particular the rational for the constant blitzes. I know the obvious answer is pressure but I'm sure we would have heard something very strategic and analytical.

Click to expand...

Explained by the Hoodie himself (check the link for the full answer):

Bill Belichick Conference Call Transcript

Q: Would you agree with the assessment that the blitz was a greater part of the defensive plan in this game than we've seen in the first seven games of the season?

BB: I think it kind of worked out that way yesterday. Part of it was, I think the conditions played a little bit of a part in that but also the game plan. It looked like Miami was having more success throwing the ball in the inside part of the field on shorter throws....

Click to expand...