Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

With Gronk coming back, he'll quickly eclipse these stats!

Oh, wait....

BradyFTW! said:

By this standard, you might as well ignore literally every statistic in existence, because all of them have some element, somewhere, that they don't account for. That said:



Lots of teams play games in bad weather, and the Patriots have played exactly one drive in 'monsoon' conditions (last drive of the Bengals game). Dobson was only targeted once on that drive, and it was on the pass that was intercepted to end the game, so that doesn't account for any of his drops.



Every receiver has to deal with this, so it in no way explains why Dobson, in particular, is dropping balls at such a dramatically higher rate than his peers. Especially considering that Brady's his quarterback. Even in what has been a down year so far, Brady is still among the very best in the league at throwing extremely catchable balls.

Just to be clear, is your premise that Brady's primarily to blame for the fact that Dobson and Thompkins are both having major problems with drops?



If the defender breaks up the pass, then it isn't a drop.

Whatever it takes to convince yourself that having the most drops in the league isn't a problem, I guess.

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Wait, what? Only one drive in monsoon conditions? Did the 2nd half of the Jets game not happen? Was I in a fugue state? Cuz I seem to remember being rained on so hard that night that my cell phone got ruined despite being inside my pocket the whole night.

The stats here are compelling -- any way you slice it the Pats' rookies have not been reliable pass-catchers.

But going by eyeballs -- it's getting better. This is what I think was one of the first turning points of the season.

2nd Quarter, TB/NWE -- New England Patriots at 12:44

• 1st and 10 at NE 34 S.Ridley left end to NE 38 for 4 yards (A.Spence).
• 2nd and 6 at NE 38 (No Huddle) S.Ridley up the middle to NE 40 for 2 yards (M.Foster; L.Johnson).
• 3rd and 4 at NE 40 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to A.Dobson to TB 45 for 15 yards (D.Goldson).
• 1st and 10 at TB 45 T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to Z.Sudfeld.
• 2nd and 10 at TB 45 (Shotgun) S.Ridley up the middle to TB 39 for 6 yards (A.Clayborn).
• 3rd and 4 at TB 39 (Shotgun) Direct snap to B.Bolden. B.Bolden right end to TB 37 for 2 yards (M.Barron; T.Scott).
• 4th and 2 at TB 37 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to A.Dobson pushed ob at TB 31 for 6 yards (A.Black).
• 1st and 10 at TB 31 T.Brady pass short left to J.Edelman to TB 29 for 2 yards (D.Revis; W.Gholston).
• 2nd and 8 at TB 29 S.Ridley up the middle to TB 20 for 9 yards (M.Barron; D.Goldson).
• 1st and 10 at TB 20 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to J.Edelman to TB 16 for 4 yards (L.David).
• 2nd and 6 at TB 16 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to K.Thompkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 51st straight regular season game with a TD pass, 2nd longest all-time (Brees 54). NE 85-Thompkins 1st NFL TD.

Leading up to this moment in time...

• Nobody is getting open, except for Amendola
• Amendola is out injured
• Brady's frustration boiling over in the Jets game the week prior
• 1st quarter of this game offensively was nothing but incompletions, coverage sacks, dump-offs to Bolden, and a few Edelman catches
• Pats are down 3-0 at this point after another miserable offensive 1st qtr. Players had to be thinking "another repeat of the Jets game"?

When Dobson caught that 15 yarder, it felt like something clicked a little in the passing offense. Dobson popped up very excited and clapping, Brady was nodding back, and it seemed like the vibe was "we are getting on the same page". A few plays later Brady hits Dobson for a critical 4th down, and then Thompkins with the TD.

The next series Brady targetted 7 of 8 passes for the rookies, with some deep attempts in there. They didn't connect on all of them, but started drawing PIs, and ultimately Thompkins got his second TD to cap it.

From that point forward, the big change apparent to me was -- the receivers are getting open and towards the right spot. Brady trusts them to get there. In the games since, the receivers have not done an amazing job of making the catches, but to me that's the next turning point for this offense!

Ozymandias said:

Your first point isn't relevant to this discussion and not worth addressing.

Your second point is equally as irrelevant, but I'll it state once more since you're trying to deviate from the discussion at hand, no one ever claimed that having the most drops is a good thing or isn't a problem. Your attempts at doing so are weak at best.

Do I think it's a problem that they're leading the league in drops? Of course I do. Who doesn't? However, I'm not going to fixate on them because the team is 5-1. Meaning even if they were best team in the league in terms of drops, the best they could be is 6-0. Ergo, the drops haven't had a negative affect on the team's overall record, yet. If later in the year, perhaps December and onward, the issues are still prevalent and the team's losing game after game because of it, then we can safely say it's an enormous issue that can't be corrected this season.

I firmly believe that it can be corrected. So I'm [not] overly concerned about an week 6 statistic that can change on the fly.

You can fixate on meaningless things and semantics all you want, the only stats that truly matter are wins and losses. And last I checked, 5 is greater than 1.

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Of course it's relevant. You've stated that the drops figures aren't a big deal because they don't capture a lot of the context around the plays that they're measuring. This is true. It's also true about literally every statistic in the NFL. So if this concern invalidates concern surrounding drops, then by extension statistics just don't matter in football.

As for your second point, you seem to be saying that these concerns aren't worth discussing because we've only lost one game so far. I'm surprised that this even requires explaining, but over the past few years the Pats have had pretty much the same script: win enough regular season games to take the AFCE and get a favorable playoff seed, but ultimately fall short of winning the SB because exactly these sorts of problems manifest themselves at the wrong time. Make no mistake: these are exactly the sort of issues that send 14-2 teams home disappointed in January. Hell, just 2 years ago the Pats lost a Super Bowl on a critical drop. They could be 16-0 and this would still be a very real and legitimate concern that shouldn't be understated.

Belichick will be the first to say that Super Bowls are won and loss by single plays. The Pats don't go to the Super Bowl in 2001 without a crucial 4th and short stop. They win it all in 2011 if Welker holds on to the ball. They win it all in 2007 if Asante does a slightly better job hauling in a makeable interception. In 2004, you could point to any of a number of catches that Branch made and say that if he doesn't make that, the Pats likely lose the game.

Contrary to what you seem to think, the margin of error just isn't high enough in the NFL to shrug off major issues like this. You say that you're not trivializing it, but saying that you're not overly worried because they're 5-1 is exactly that. You should be worried, because it does not bode well for their prospects in January, unless we see some major improvement.

BradyFTW! said:

Of course it's relevant. You've stated that the drops figures aren't a big deal because they don't capture a lot of the context around the plays that they're measuring. This is true. It's also true about literally every statistic in the NFL. So if this concern invalidates concern surrounding drops, then by extension statistics just don't matter in football.

As for your second point, you seem to be saying that these concerns aren't worth discussing because we've only lost one game so far. I'm surprised that this even requires explaining, but over the past few years the Pats have had pretty much the same script: win enough regular season games to take the AFCE and get a favorable playoff seed, but ultimately fall short of winning the SB because exactly these sorts of problems manifest themselves at the wrong time. Make no mistake: these are exactly the sort of issues that send 14-2 teams home disappointed in January. Hell, just 2 years ago the Pats lost a Super Bowl on a critical drop. They could be 16-0 and this would still be a very real and legitimate concern that shouldn't be understated.

Belichick will be the first to say that Super Bowls are won and loss by single plays. The Pats don't go to the Super Bowl in 2001 without a crucial 4th and short stop. They win it all in 2011 if Welker holds on to the ball. They win it all in 2007 if Asante does a slightly better job hauling in a makeable interception. In 2004, you could point to any of a number of catches that Branch made and say that if he doesn't make that, the Pats likely lose the game.

Contrary to what you seem to think, the margin of error just isn't high enough in the NFL to shrug off major issues like this. You say that you're not trivializing it, but saying that you're not overly worried because they're 5-1 is exactly that. You should be worried, because it does not bode well for their prospects in January, unless we see some major improvement.

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A lot of this post is nonsensical rambling.

You can continue your little charade until you're blue in the face, but your pathetic attempt at an argument here is not even worth my time. When you actually have something relevant and marginally interesting to state, don't bother quoting me again with your idiotic posts.

Ozymandias said:

A lot of this post is nonsensical rambling.

You can continue your little charade until you're blue in the face, but your pathetic attempt at an argument here is not even worth my time. When you actually have something relevant and marginally interesting to state, don't bother quoting me again with your idiotic posts.

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Wow more than a little arrogant arent we? I agree with most of what BradyFTW said but I wonder if my charade will be worth your time. Maybe I shouldnt even dare quote your posts either... but hey maybe some lowly peasant around here will find this marginally interesting.

Ozymandias said:

That's arbitrary and looking at it from its most basic premise. You're still not taking into account other factors. What are the conditions of the game? How catchable is a slippery wet ball when you're playing in a monsoon? Or how accurate was said pass when you tried to catch it, and had to contort your entire body just to get your hands on it? Or what was the velocity on the pass when it hit you in the hands?

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Lets pretend we arent talking about drops, but successful catches. Everything in this statement still holds true yet receptions are an official NFL statistic. We could be talking about rushes, kicks, tackles, sacks, touchdowns, wins, losses and you could apply this same sweeping argument to them. In fact EVERY statistic known to man has unaccounted for and unmeasurable variables yet we still decide to record them. That does not make them arbitrary.

Ozymandias said:

However, I'm not going to fixate on them because the team is 5-1. Meaning even if they were best team in the league in terms of drops, the best they could be is 6-0. Ergo, the drops haven't had a negative affect on the team's overall record, yet. If later in the year, perhaps December and onward, the issues are still prevalent and the team's losing game after game because of it, then we can safely say it's an enormous issue that can't be corrected this season.

Click to expand...

Firstly you must have not watched the Bengals game since our record has already been affected. We have played nothing but close games this year and will most likely continue to do so. The point here isnt about statistics its about key situational plays that will be the difference between wins and losses. There could not be a more evident example of the significance of these drops than last weeks game: at 2:50 on 4th down Dobson has a horrible drop that should have cost us the game, at 0:24 Collie catches a 4th down pass that enables us to win the game. But hey lets forget all this throw around words like arbitrary and irrelevant and not even think about drops as a problem until December!

Ozymandias said:

A lot of this post is nonsensical rambling.

You can continue your little charade until you're blue in the face, but your pathetic attempt at an argument here is not even worth my time. When you actually have something relevant and marginally interesting to state, don't bother quoting me again with your idiotic posts.

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Can't attack the argument, so you attack the poster. Typical of you.

It'll eventually cost the team their season if the drops aren't straightened out, but I have to admit that I'm encouraged by the fact that the rookies are getting open and the team is grinding out wins even with their issues.

muslimman said:

...Yawns...

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Once again another post that has nothing to do with the initial discussion at hand. All of this is common sense. Try telling the world something we don't all already know.

BradyFTW! said:

Can't attack the argument, so you attack the poster. Typical of you.

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Your "argument" was weak, nonsensical and way off the point. All you've done in this thread is try to shove the point that they're leading the league in drops down everyone's throat who's saying that we believe they can improve and continuously bringing up worthless ghosts from the past as if they matter anymore. That's how this issue first started. Nothing you've stated here has changed anything other than you looking moronic in the process.

Re: Re: Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

Oswlek said:

It'll eventually cost the team their season if the drops aren't straightened out, but I have to admit that I'm encouraged by the fact that the rookies are getting open and the team is grinding out wins even with their issues.

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What does that mean? They won't go to the superbowl? If they do not go that far, we can point to the defensive injuries and just as easily lay blame.

Nunchucks said:

we can point to the defensive injuries and just as easily lay blame.

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I'm not really fond of that attitude. I've learned long ago that using things injuries as an excuse/blame for losses doesn't really give the whole story. If they don't get that far it'll be because they didn't perform well enough as a team.

We can always pinpoint things like that as the reason for losses. People always want to point the finger at this circumstance or that situation, or those plays.

You win as a team or you lose as a team. Excuses be damned.

Ozymandias said:

Once again another post that has nothing to do with the initial discussion at hand. All of this is common sense. Try telling the world something we don't all already know.


Your "argument" was weak, nonsensical and way off the point. All you've done in this thread is try to shove the point that they're leading the league in drops down everyone's throat who's saying that we believe they can improve and continuously bringing up worthless ghosts from the past as if they matter anymore. That's how this issue first started. Nothing you've stated here has changed anything other than you looking moronic in the process.

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You're moving the goalposts. "We believe that they can improve" is obviously true, and I and everyone else on this thread has been saying that from the first reply. Claiming that that's every been a point of contention is just nonsense. Go back and read my very first response to you. Or, better yet, let me quote it:

"I agree that it is likely to improve, but how are drops an 'arbitrary' statistic? Pretty cut and dry if you ask me, and pretty definitively a bad thing that you don't want."

If your takeaway from that was "he disagrees that they can improve", then let's just say that reading comprehension isn't a strength of yours.

To reiterate, that was never the point of contention. Since you've apparently forgotten your own point, your claim was that the drops statistic isn't particularly meaningful because it's, in your words, arbitrary. Don't believe me? Go back and read your own posts here, here, and here.

Since you've moved the goalposts from "drops are an arbitrary statistic and nothing to worry about" to "of course they matter and they're a problem, but I think they'll improve", I'll just take that for what it is--a clear admission that your original argument was wrong--and move on.

Nunchucks said:

What does that mean? They won't go to the superbowl? If they do not go that far, we can point to the defensive injuries and just as easily lay blame.

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Injuries didn't stop them in 2004. Certainly didn't stop the Ravens last year. Every team has injuries, but the teams with the most talent and best execution of fundamentals can win anyway.

They are the opposite of Wes Welker. They drop a lot of balls, but they make the big catches when it matters most (both Edelman and KT were clutch in the final drive against the Saints.) Whereas Welker caught a lot of balls but made drops in key situations.

I hope this continues into January.

FourierSeries said:

They are the opposite of Wes Welker. They drop a lot of balls, but they make the big catches when it matters most (both Edelman and KT were clutch in the final drive against the Saints.) Whereas Welker caught a lot of balls but made drops in key situations.

I hope this continues into January.

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Welker has never had fewer than 6 catches, and never fewer than 50 yards, in a playoff game. The stupidity of the anti-Welker arguments should have stopped them from being made long ago, but some people just can't get out from underneath the team's skirts, I guess.

Deus Irae said:

Welker has never had fewer than 6 catches, and never fewer than 50 yards, in a playoff game. The stupidity of the anti-Welker should have stopped them from being made long ago, but some people just can't get out from underneath the team's skirts, I guess.

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Pay attention. I explicitly stated that Welker caught a lot of balls. He had monstrous stats for us, and no one denies this. He did however have several drops in key moments in big games.

I'm not anti-Welker at all. Just stating the facts.

Is that good, or shall I draw you a diagram so that you may comprehend what I am saying?

BradyFTW! said:

You're moving the goalposts.

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I'm going to tear your post apart line by line.

BradyFTW! said:

"We believe that they can improve" is obviously true, and I and everyone else on this thread has been saying that from the first reply.

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That's hilarious considering that's the exact argument that you've being failingly attempting to argue against from the get go. Suffering from amnesia are we? Pathetic.

BradyFTW! said:

Since you've apparently forgotten your own point,

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A point that just rustled your jimmies because you cannot fathom why people could actually say they're not overly concerned about something that hasn't perpetually negatively impacted the team in the only place where it matters. Hence, why you've tried to quote and attack anyone's post who said that. Try again.

BradyFTW said:

your claim was that the drops statistic isn't particularly meaningful because it's, in your words, arbitrary.

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The only meaningful statistics in the NFL are wins and losses. The Patriots lead the league in drops, so why [don't] they lead the league in losses as well? If drops were such a meaningful, absolute statistic to a team's win-and-loss column why didn't Patriots lose their other 5 games since they're so terrible at drops. Because that statistic isn't the end all be all of the NFL.

BradyFTW! said:

Don't believe me? Go back and read your own posts

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My own posts were straight to point, you've failed at cherry picking them now you're trying to turn them against me as you have some semblance of an argument when you do not. You have nothing to stand on. This is getting is boring now.

BradyFTW! said:

Since you've moved the goalposts from "drops are an arbitrary, independently meaningless statistic" to "of course they matter but I think they'll improve"

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This statement is hilarious. Let's recap, shall we:

Ozymandias said:

Do I think it's a problem that they're leading the league in drops? Of course I do. Who doesn't? However, I'm not going to fixate on them ...

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That jibes with exactly what saying throughout this whole thread. Be consistent.

BradyFTW! said:

I'll just take that for what it is--a clear admission that your original argument was wrong--and move on.

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And what was my original argument again, that you decided to get emo about because it didn't jibe with your nonsense?

Ozymandias said:

The right approach to look at this is that despite arbitrary statistics like this, the team is still 5-1. Drops are a correctable issue. The offense only stands to improve as the season goes on.

I'm not (overly) worried about this.

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Funny that throughout this whole thread I've never wavered on that stance, unlike you. Seems that you failed again. Not surprising, coming from someone with such a futile attempt at throwing their opinion about as if it actually held any weight.

Actually have an legit argument next time. You're worried about what the team did in the past as if that'll actually change anything. My concern is what they'll do now and in the future.

Another worthless post like this gets you placed on the ignore list. Kthnxbai.

Re: Re: Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

BradyFTW! said:

Injuries didn't stop them in 2004. Certainly didn't stop the Ravens last year. Every team has injuries, but the teams with the most talent and best execution of fundamentals can win anyway.

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I did say if

Ozymandias said:

The right approach to look at this is that despite arbitrary statistics like this, the team is still 5-1. Drops are a correctable issue. The offense only stands to improve as the season goes on.

I'm not (overly) worried about this.

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Not only are the Patriots 5-1, But they have hung up 30 points in 2 out of 7 games. The latent scoring potency is there.