Battling for Roster Spots

I've got 33 spots safe, need to keep 20 more and cut 22

QB Tebow (0-1)
RB: Brandon Bolden, LaGarrette Blount, Leon Washington (George Winn) (2-3)
TE/FB: Jake Ballard, Daniel Fells, Michael Hoomanawanui, James Develin (Ben Bartholomew) (2-3)
WR: Josh Boyce, Julian Edelman, Quentin Sims (Johnathan Haggerty) (2)
OL: Matt Stankiewitch, Josh Kline, Chris McDonald (Luke Patterson, Brian Schwab (1-2)

DL: Marcus Forston, Joe Vellano (Scott Vallone) (1-2)
DE: Justin Francis, Marcus Benard, Michael Buchanon, Jermaine Cunningham, Jake Bequette (3-4)
LB: Steve Beauharnais, Mike Rivera, Jeff Tarpinian (0-1)
CB: Ras I Dowling, Marqiuse Cole (Justin Green, Stephon Morris) (0-2)
S: Adrian Wilson, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson, Duron Harmon, Nate Ebner (Kanorris Davis) (3-4)
P: Zoltan Mesko, Ryan Allen

Keepers:

QB: Brady Mallett
RB: Ridley Vereen
TE: Gronk, Sudfeld
WR: Amendola, Thompkins, Dobson
OL: Solder, Vollmer, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Cannon, Svitek
DL: Wilfork, Kelly
DE: Jones, Ninkovich
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher
CB: Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan
S McCourty
K Gostkowski, Aiken, Slater

My Picks with the last spot going to Dowling or Wilson

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (6) Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Blount, Washington, Develin
WR (6) Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, Edelman, Boyce, Slater
TE (3) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard
C (2) Wendell, Stankiewitch
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Svitek
DE (5) Jones, Ninkovich, Francis, Benard, Buchanan
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Vellano
ILB(3) Hightower, Spikes, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Mayo, Collins, Fletcher
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Cole
SS (2) Wilson, Harmon
FS (2) McCourty, Gregory
ST (3) Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken

Total players: 52
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

Excellent breakdown. I like the way that was segmented into the bubble (and longshot) group, and the keepers/locks group.


A few very minor points (apologies in advance for nitpicking; there's nothing major to change):


- At TE/FB I have seen some people go with only three, but I agree that with Gronk out for a few games then it needs to be at least four.

- At WR I think Sims is enough of a longshot that I would put him on the outside looking in (with Haggerty). I'd place Boyce in the keeper/lock category because of his draft status.

- The Pats have never been able to afford an injury to Vince Wilfork; now the same goes for Tommy Kelly. Even without injury I'm concerned they'll be worn down at the end of games, and worn out in December and January.

- Nitpicking again, but I would change the on-the-bubble group at CB from (0-2) to (1-2); I can't see them going with just four CB.

- At safety I think Kanorris Davis has a better shot at making the team than Nate Ebner, which isn't saying much. Ebner is either cut or goes on IR. Both are ST only players at this point, but at least Davis can get on the field. Similar to Boyce, I would place Harmon in the keeper category due to draft status.

Watching the pre-season games, Benard and Buchanan appears to be liability against the run. Nothing seems to stand out about their ability to rush the passer, so I think Cunningham and Bequette makes the team.

jmt57 said:

Excellent breakdown. I like the way that was segmented into the bubble (and longshot) group, and the keepers/locks group.


A few very minor points (apologies in advance for nitpicking; there's nothing major to change):


- At TE/FB I have seen some people go with only three, but I agree that with Gronk out for a few games then it needs to be at least four.

- At WR I think Sims is enough of a longshot that I would put him on the outside looking in (with Haggerty). I'd place Boyce in the keeper/lock category because of his draft status.

- The Pats have never been able to afford an injury to Vince Wilfork; now the same goes for Tommy Kelly. Even without injury I'm concerned they'll be worn down at the end of games, and worn out in December and January.

- Nitpicking again, but I would change the on-the-bubble group at CB from (0-2) to (1-2); I can't see them going with just four CB.

- At safety I think Kanorris Davis has a better shot at making the team than Nate Ebner, which isn't saying much. Ebner is either cut or goes on IR. Both are ST only players at this point, but at least Davis can get on the field. Similar to Boyce, I would place Harmon in the keeper category due to draft status.

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My thinking with is that TE, Fells and Hooman aren't making the cut, the Pats can get a comparable player for half the cost. Sudfeld, Ballard, Develin and/or a FA till Gronk can play, maybe week 3.

Agree on Sims, probably agree on Boyce, although he is only a 4th rounder and hasn't shown much in games, I don't expect him to be cut I only put him there for the smallest chance he would.

Forston and Vellano both make it unless someone new comes in.

Agree that at least 1 CB makes it, Cole at the very least for ST.

Harmon like Boyce I don't see cut, Ebner could still sneak on, Davis to PS

@ Armchair QB:

From my POV are Slater, Edelman, Washington and Boyce keepers and locked

FoxWhiskey said:

@ Armchair QB:

From my POV are Slater, Edelman, Washington and Boyce keepers and locked

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Slater I overlooked, I edited it to add him to the keeper list on ST. I'd put the chances of Edelman staying at 80%, Boyce at about 95%, with Washington about 60%. The coaching staff may decide all three to be redundant and let one go, Washington can return both, Boyce can return kicks and Edelman punts. Boyce is likely to be featured in the passing game.

Armchair Quarterback said:

I've got 32 spots safe, need to keep 21 more and cut 22

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Quick-hit thoughts on Pats and NFL - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Quick-hit thoughts around the NFL and with the Patriots:

1. Bill Belichick said Thursday that he has about 80 percent of the Patriots’ final 53-man roster solidified, and it seems fair to say that quarterback Tim Tebow is part of the uncertain remaining 20 percent. Assuming Tebow makes it through Tuesday’s cut-down to 75 players (I think he will) he will be playing for a job on Thursday night against the Giants. The fourth preseason game is usually a dud, but given the lightning rod that is Tebow, that storyline would add an element of intrigue unmatched in past preseason finales.

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ATippett56 said:

Quick-hit thoughts on Pats and NFL - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Quick-hit thoughts around the NFL and with the Patriots:

1. Bill Belichick said Thursday that he has about 80 percent of the Patriots’ final 53-man roster solidified, and it seems fair to say that quarterback Tim Tebow is part of the uncertain remaining 20 percent. Assuming Tebow makes it through Tuesday’s cut-down to 75 players (I think he will) he will be playing for a job on Thursday night against the Giants. The fourth preseason game is usually a dud, but given the lightning rod that is Tebow, that storyline would add an element of intrigue unmatched in past preseason finales.

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So if about 80% of the roster is set then we are looking at approximately 42 players that are in, and somewhere in the vicinity of 11 roster spots that are still undecided. With at least two and in some cases three players competing for each of those final slots, there really are not a whole lot of players still on the roster that are automatic cuts - with the fate for about 25 or so players still up in the air.

If the Patriots were to cut down today, I think we'd be looking at something similar to the following:

---------------
Offense (25)
---------------
QB: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow
RB: LeGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Leon Washington
FB: <None>
WR: Danny Amendola, Josh Boyce, Aaron Dobson, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Kenbrell Thompkins
TE: Jake Ballard, Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui, Zach Sudfeld
OT: Nate Solder, Will Svitek, Sebastian Vollmer
OG: Marcus Cannon, Dan Connolly, Logan Mankins
OC: Josh Kline, Ryan Wendell

---------------
Defense (25)
---------------
DE: Marcus Benard, Michael Buchanan, Justin Francis, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich
DT: Marcus Forston, Tommy Kelly, Joe Vellano, Vince Wilfork
LB: Steve Beauharnais, Jamie Collins, Dane Fletcher, Dont'a Hightower, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes
CB: Kyle Arrington, Marquice Cole, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Aqib Talib
S: Steve Gregory, Duron Harmon, Devin McCourty, Adrian Wilson, Tavon Wilson

---------------
Specialist (3)
---------------
K: Stephen Gostkowski
P: Zoltan Mesko
LS: Danny Aiken

Obviously, even after the cut, there will be roster shuffling. I'd expect a waiver claim or two, a free agent signing, and perhaps even a trade. The Offensive Line has a solid starting unit but is a bit questionable regarding depth. Tight End could be an area of interest as there are no true certainties until Gronkowski returns. Defensive End and Defensive Tackle should be the primary focus - a veteran DT is needed to adequately (kinda overstated still) sub in for Kelly and Wilfork - and a veteran at DE to sub for Ninkovich and Jones. The depth simply isn't exciting, they're not bad, they're just all JAGS. Cornerback could also be an area of interest, in the instance that Dennard is suspended / jailed for a period and Dowling is let go.

ATippett56 said:

Quick-hit thoughts on Pats and NFL - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

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Sounds about right, I'm sure he already knows if he's keeping Ballard or Fells, if he'd rather have Benard or Cunningham, whether or not Buchanan has shown enough potential to warrant a roster spot. I just tried to list the ones I thought would almost certainly make it, the ones everyone pretty much agrees on.

I thought this article regarding Adrian Wilson's troubles so far was relevant to the discussion. Although most of us have AWilson making the team without any problem, the reality may be that he's squarely on the bubble a lot more than we may think.

Of course the article also mentions the woes of Gregory at times, the obvious struggles that Tavon Wilson has had in his supposed regression from mediocre play of last season, and the "learning curve" that is involved with new rookie Duron Harmon and his growing pains that will come throughout his first season here.

In other words, the depth behind McCourty pretty much sucks at this point in time. Once thought of as a potential position of strength, safety looks like a major wildcard for the 2013 season in a lot of eyes.

Somewhere Deus Irae is still reeling from Belichick's decision to pass on a higher round safety who was more talented, and many of us likely agree with him. Any of AWilson, Gregory, and Harmon/TWilson would have been just fine for 3rd/4th/5th spots or rotational value, but none of the above appear to be sufficient starters opposite of Devin McCourty. We may be forced to go back to the drawing board once again at a high round pick in the secondary of the 2014 draft.

Veteran Adrian Wilson stuck on bubble | Boston Herald

supafly said:

I thought this article regarding Adrian Wilson's troubles so far was relevant to the discussion. Although most of us have AWilson making the team without any problem, the reality may be that he's squarely on the bubble a lot more than we may think.

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Whoever plays the "strong safety position" will most likely be the weakest link in the New England Patriots defense this season.

Gregory, Steve
Wilson, Adrian
Wilson, Tavon

I'll place Duron Harmon at the backup free safety position for the interim.

ATippett56 said:

Whoever plays the "strong safety position" will most likely be the weakest link in the New England Patriots defense this season.

Gregory, Steve
Wilson, Adrian
Wilson, Tavon

I'll place Duron Harmon at the backup free safety position for the interim.

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I agree. My only concern is that there is potential for uncertainty at the CB position also, and that may end up somehow topping the concern at S.

If Arrington ends up outside, and/or Dowling, Dennard, and even Ryan show struggles or injuries things could get interesting.

Not meaning to necessarily sound negative. There's also reason for optimism too. Just voicing concerns out loud on the forum.

We also have plenty of reasons for optimism and additional progression from the other positions too however. It seemed that starting a few yrs ago, Belichick decided to attempt changes at several or more key areas of the defense. While it was hard to watch in the beginning, it has been getting better in certain areas.

Let's hope that progression can continue, but boy was it nice to watch a viable secondary down the stretch run of the season the past couple of yrs with some healthy parts contributing. I think we can shave another couple of points per average off of the 21 or 22 per game (or whatever it was last yr), and take advantage of a more aggressive scheme up front.

supafly said:

I agree. My only concern is that there is potential for uncertainty at the CB position also, and that may end up somehow topping the concern at S.

If Arrington ends up outside, and/or Dowling, Dennard, and even Ryan show struggles or injuries things could get interesting.

Not meaning to necessarily sound negative. There's also reason for optimism too. Just voicing concerns out loud on the forum.

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I personally feel that Logan Ryan has played better of late. The fourth preseason game may determine the fate of defensive secondary players such as Adrian Wilson, Ras-I Dowling, Nate Ebner. Regardless, I doubt Bill Belichick would cut second round draft pick Tavon Wilson just after one season. With that said, I personally feel the following defensive secondary personnel are currently roster locks:

Talib
Dennard
Arrington
Ryan
Gregory
Harmon
McCourty
Wilson, Tavon

That leaves Marquice Cole, Ras-I Dowling, Nate Ebner (IR candidate?), Adrian Wilson on the bubble.

ATippett56 said:

I personally feel that Logan Ryan has played better of late. The fourth preseason game may determine the fate of defensive secondary players such as Adrian Wilson, Ras-I Dowling, Nate Ebner. Regardless, I doubt Bill Belichick would cut second round draft pick Tavon Wilson just after one season. With that said, I personally feel the following defensive secondary personnel are currently roster locks:

Talib
Dennard
Arrington
Ryan
Gregory
Harmon
McCourty
Wilson, Tavon

That leaves Marquice Cole, Ras-I Dowling, Nate Ebner (IR candidate?), Adrian Wilson on the bubble.

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I'd agree with your thoughts. Ryan has looked more comfortable with increased playing time over the past 2 games. It's probably the 4 you mention for the last 2 spots, but it'd be a shame if AWilson was yet another failure at the 'money' position once again.

supafly said:

We also have plenty of reasons for optimism and additional progression from the other positions too however. It seemed that starting a few yrs ago, Belichick decided to attempt changes at several or more key areas of the defense. While it was hard to watch in the beginning, it has been getting better in certain areas.

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Last season, the starting defensive secondary against the Tennessee Titans was the following:

McCourty - LCB
Arrington - RCB
Chung - SS
Gregory - FS

McCourty is definitely an upgrade at FS, Talib is definitely an upgrade at LCB, Dennard is definitely an upgrade at RCB. Long term, the strong safety may need to be addressed in the 2014 NFL Draft, especially if Tavon Wilson does not progress this season.

supafly said:

I'd agree with your thoughts. Ryan has looked more comfortable with increased playing time over the past 2 games. It's probably the 4 you mention for the last 2 spots, but it'd be a shame if AWilson was yet another failure at the 'money' position once again.

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What's the story with Nate Ebner? If I remember correctly, Nate Ebner has yet to play a preseason game this year.

supafly said:

I'd agree with your thoughts. Ryan has looked more comfortable with increased playing time over the past 2 games. It's probably the 4 you mention for the last 2 spots, but it'd be a shame if AWilson was yet another failure at the 'money' position once again.

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There would be no need for the "money" position if the New England Patriots roster incorporated two linebackers proficient in pass coverage.

ATippett56 said:

What's the story with Nate Ebner? If I remember correctly, Nate Ebner has yet to play a preseason game this year.

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Yeah he was limited way back in OTA's/minicamp with an undisclosed injury. He wasn't a full participant even then.

Not sure what the specific nature of the injury is of course.

I don't know if he played in the first game or not, but I don't think he did.