Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

MAYOnnaise · Aug 8, 2013

Uncle Rico said:
Bet BB's glad to get some heat finally

BB's packing heat now? I bet Welker's really glad he isn't around anymore. Let's just hope BB doesn't go all Hernandez on us.

Danger Zone · Aug 8, 2013

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

KontradictioN said:
Why in God's name were you watching Jim Rome?

1) Long, long off-season.

2) Only two sports radio channels to be had.

3) Heard NFL talk.

4) See #1 and #3

fnordcircle · Aug 8, 2013

PatsFan2 said:
A Player who grades out as a Fifth of Sixth Round selection should not be taken on day 1.

The New England Patriots did not grade him out as a 5th or 6th round pick, they graded him as a 2nd round pick.

DarrylS · Aug 8, 2013

Danger Zone said:
1) Long, long off-season.

2) Only two sports radio channels to be had.

3) Heard NFL talk.

4) See #1 and #3

It has gotten worse lately, the choices are insufferable, loud mouthed bombasity or "I don't know what I am talking about, but if I try really hard maybe you can believe me i.e. but I did read the newspapers this morning therefore I know what I am talking about".

Worse and worser...

RobAllan · Aug 8, 2013

fnordcircle said:
Reaches only exist in the world of fans and analysts.

In the real world teams assign a value to a player and draft accordingly, **** everything else.

Was Tavon a bad pick? His first season statline was pretty good for a rookie and he had a number of bad plays too so we'll see how things progress. I'm not a fan of the pick but there's so much stuff implied in the term 'reach' that it's silly. You can't *know* that a team won't have graded out your guy similarly so you can't pass on him hoping to get him in a later round and opting to pick a lesser-graded player now.

That's a great way to draft players who aren't the best on your board.

This is not true. Draft picks have a value and at least a portion of that is perceived. Just like if you're doing a fantasy football draft, a part of the calculation is where you think other teams might take the player. That's why you hear things like "well, we were surprised he dropped that far, so we took him" about some players.

BB does make "reach" picks and failure to acknowledge that is failure to accept reality. He might think a player is worth that high a pick, but I bet dimes to dollars he doesn't always think a player will go that high if he didn't take him. These guys know approximately where other teams have players rated, it'd be an insult to BB if he didn't. I think the Pats draft with a projected contract number in mind and I do think this is something in their draft process that is folly.

No organization is perfect, so this is acceptable given overall team performance year-to-year.

VrabelJr · Aug 8, 2013

MAYOnaisse said:
BB's packing heat now? I bet Welker's really glad he isn't around anymore. Let's just hope BB doesn't go all Hernandez on us.

I had a nightmare where a picture got released of BB sitting in the rental car with Hernandez on the night of murder wearing a mink coat with the sleeves cut off.

TruthSeeker · Aug 8, 2013

RobAllan said:
This is not true. Draft picks have a value and at least a portion of that is perceived. Just like if you're doing a fantasy football draft, a part of the calculation is where you think other teams might take the player. That's why you hear things like "well, we were surprised he dropped that far, so we took him" about some players.

BB does make "reach" picks and failure to acknowledge that is failure to accept reality. He might think a player is worth that high a pick, but I bet dimes to dollars he doesn't always think a player will go that high if he didn't take him. These guys know approximately where other teams have players rated, it'd be an insult to BB if he didn't. I think the Pats draft with a projected contract number in mind and I do think this is something in their draft process that is folly.

No organization is perfect, so this is acceptable given overall team performance year-to-year.

This is well thought out. I agree that BB does "reach", some of them work (Deion Branch was rated 7th round and Logan Mankins was rated 3rd round), and a bunch of them wind up being horrific (for instance, any WR from 2000 except Branch, and most DB's). I still lose sleep over the Bethel Johnson instead of Anquan Boldin pick.

BUT, I came to the realization that Belichick's draft board is typically set up how he feels the players would fit HIS team and system. Therefore they look like reaches according to the prognosticators. Doesn't mean he's always right, doesn't mean he doesn't pass on better players that would probably would have fit HIS system (because he does mess up). Just means he's set in his ways. And he will not sway from them. I will say that I hated the Tavon Wilson pick, and unfortunately like the Bethel Johnson pick, I'm probably gonna be right (sounds like it). But for every Bethel Johnson, Tavon Wilson, etc, he finds a late round pick that makes an impact. Gotta take the good with the bad.

fnordcircle · Aug 8, 2013

RobAllan said:
This is not true. Draft picks have a value and at least a portion of that is perceived. Just like if you're doing a fantasy football draft, a part of the calculation is where you think other teams might take the player.

If there's one thing about Belichick's press persona that I believe is true it's that he only worries about the things he can control. Just because Kiper and a bunch of know it alls on a discussion board think that a player won't be taken before Round X doesn't mean ****. To your point, you cannot gauge when a team will take a player because you do not know what other teams perceive as their own areas of need or which teams fall in love with a player or which teams are drafting with a 'fill holes' strategy or a 'BAA' strategy.

The question is did they grade Tavon correctly, only time will tell. But it's asinine to suggest that they gave him a grade that dropped him into the range of 150-200 on their draft board and then picked him in round 2.

Conversely, nothing in Belichick's actions or words suggest a coach who sits around wondering what other teams will do and then rolls the dice that the top player on their draft board will be around in 90 picks.

Deus Irae · Aug 8, 2013

fnordcircle said:
Reaches only exist in the world of fans and analysts.

In the real world teams assign a value to a player and draft accordingly, **** everything else.

Was Tavon a bad pick? His first season statline was pretty good for a rookie and he had a number of bad plays too so we'll see how things progress. I'm not a fan of the pick but there's so much stuff implied in the term 'reach' that it's silly. You can't *know* that a team won't have graded out your guy similarly so you can't pass on him hoping to get him in a later round and opting to pick a lesser-graded player now.

That's a great way to draft players who aren't the best on your board.

Nice trolling

TyronePoole · Aug 8, 2013

ooohhhhh snap Deus just got you good with a sick burn. Damn Deus bringing the heat again today! High five bro!

Kontradiction · Aug 8, 2013

Danger Zone said:
1) Long, long off-season.

2) Only two sports radio channels to be had.

3) Heard NFL talk.

4) See #1 and #3

1. Jim Rome
2. Music
3. Nothing

If I had to pick one of those to listen to, in order, it would go like this...

1. Music
2. Nothing

3. Jim Rome

I'm so happy I invested the $12/month for Sirius. The Pats talk on the NFL station is few and far between, but those guys actually know their stuff and can break down the X's and O's of the game whereas Jim Rome is simply an entertainer, and not a very good one at that. If the NFL channel is talking too much Eagles, Jets, or the team that is doing the worst in the NFL (which they have a habit of doing), I'll turn on some BPM, Electric Area, Hip-Hop Nation and listen to that or some of the comedy stations. Stern in the morning as well FTW.

ATippett56 · Aug 8, 2013

scott99 said:
This is well thought out. I agree that BB does "reach", some of them work (Deion Branch was rated 7th round and Logan Mankins was rated 3rd round), and a bunch of them wind up being horrific (for instance, any WR from 2000 except Branch, and most DB's). I still lose sleep over the Bethel Johnson instead of Anquan Boldin pick.

Deion Branch was never rated as a 7th round draft pick.

Deion Branch | Louisville, WR : 2002 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

RobAllan · Aug 8, 2013

You're making my point for me.

fnordcircle said:
you cannot gauge when a team will take a player because you do not know what other teams perceive as their own areas of need or which teams fall in love with a player or which teams are drafting with a 'fill holes' strategy or a 'BAA' strategy.

Were this true teams would never trade up and down. They are doing so because they are operating on at least some assumptions of what players will be gone by a given spot in the draft.

fnordcircle said:
The question is did they grade Tavon correctly, only time will tell. But it's asinine to suggest that they gave him a grade that dropped him into the range of 150-200 on their draft board and then picked him in round 2.

As stated previously, I think it stands to reason based on how the Patriots sign and cut ties with players that they believe a player has a "value" at all times. I think they draft according to what they want to pay the player they are drafting and this creates "reach" picks because they intend to tender certain players at a 2nd round value, for example, based on how they expect the player to perform.

The problem is, often when other teams and analysts don't see what you're seeing, it might mean you've misjudged. I think the perspective that certain needs of our system supersede college performance and draft metrics has hurt this team in these cases.

fnordcircle said:
Conversely, nothing in Belichick's actions or words suggest a coach who sits around wondering what other teams will do and then rolls the dice that the top player on their draft board will be around in 90 picks.

Everything the Pats do suggests some degree of this. The Pats trade more than any other team back in and out of rounds. You don't do that if you're not projecting where picks on your board will land. What it looks like the Pats do is try not to draft a player above their projected financial value in the system, which is why they move down more frequently than up.

Danger Zone · Aug 8, 2013

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

KontradictioN said:
I'm so happy I invested the $12/month for Sirius. The Pats talk on the NFL station is few and far between, but those guys actually know their stuff and can break down the X's and O's of the game whereas Jim Rome is simply an entertainer, and not a very good one at that. If the NFL channel is talking too much Eagles, Jets, or the team that is doing the worst in the NFL (which they have a habit of doing), I'll turn on some BPM, Electric Area, Hip-Hop Nation and listen to that or some of the comedy stations. Stern in the morning as well FTW.

I checked into Sirius last year and realised it would cost a couple hundred for a radio that could go between the car and inside. I might look into it again.. might worth the money to listen to someone objective for a change.

Kontradiction · Aug 8, 2013

Danger Zone said:
I checked into Sirius last year and realised it would cost a couple hundred for a radio that could go between the car and inside. I might look into it again.. might worth the money to listen to someone objective for a change.

All you have to do is call them and threaten to quit. They'll lower the amount for you. I got it down to $12/month but it started around higher than that. I will be calling them again in a few months to "cancel my subscription".

Sicilian · Aug 8, 2013

RobAllan said:
You're making my point for me.

Were this true teams would never trade up and down. They are doing so because they are operating on at least some assumptions of what players will be gone by a given spot in the draft.

As stated previously, I think it stands to reason based on how the Patriots sign and cut ties with players that they believe a player has a "value" at all times. I think they draft according to what they want to pay the player they are drafting and this creates "reach" picks because they intend to tender certain players at a 2nd round value, for example, based on how they expect the player to perform.

The problem is, often when other teams and analysts don't see what you're seeing, it might mean you've misjudged. I think the perspective that certain needs of our system supersede college performance and draft metrics has hurt this team in these cases.

Everything the Pats do suggests some degree of this. The Pats trade more than any other team back in and out of rounds. You don't do that if you're not projecting where picks on your board will land. What it looks like the Pats do is try not to draft a player above their projected financial value in the system, which is why they move down more frequently than up.

The difference in the cap hit for the 48th pick (where Wilson was taken) and the last pick in the draft is about 350k. I hardly think the Patriots are going to potentially pick worse players in order to scrounge for 350k.

So what you're implying in your posts is that the Patriots move up and down to grab players based on where they think they're going to be taken (which I agree with), and yet they had no reason to believe Wilson would go until much later, yet still took him 48th because... why? Because they just felt like being weird?

Kontradiction · Aug 8, 2013

Sicilian said:
The difference in the cap hit for the 48th pick (where Wilson was taken) and the last pick in the draft is about 350k. I hardly think the Patriots are going to potentially pick worse players in order to scrounge for 350k.

So what you're implying in your posts is that the Patriots move up and down to grab players based on where they think they're going to be taken (which I agree with), and yet they had no reason to believe Wilson would go until much later, yet still took him 48th because... why? Because they just felt like being weird?

I honestly think that they had him graded as a second rounder which, based on what we have seen to date, is a pretty big shame.

RobAllan · Aug 8, 2013

Sicilian said:
The difference in the cap hit for the 48th pick (where Wilson was taken) and the last pick in the draft is about 350k. I hardly think the Patriots are going to potentially pick worse players in order to scrounge for 350k.

So what you're implying in your posts is that the Patriots move up and down to grab players based on where they think they're going to be taken (which I agree with), and yet they had no reason to believe Wilson would go until much later, yet still took him 48th because... why? Because they just felt like being weird?

First of all, the Pats would most certainly make moves over $350K. The Welker deal at least gives us a hint of that, particularly where unproven draft picks are concerned, I would think.

Second, I suggested they take players in the round they do in some part because of the number the expect to tender the player at. (And the rookie deal is multi-year so they must project how they expect the player to perform, for example if a defensive player is expected to be a starter in certain packages by his 2nd year or not.) This would be consistent with how they behave in other parts of the business such as free agency.

There is no way to know this, but the other route being presented in the other post is we should believe the Pats are just extremely wide of the mark with evaluation of these picks and have NO IDEAS about where other teams may take a player. That sounds far more absurd than what I'm suggesting.

manxman2601 · Aug 8, 2013

Some pretty good stuff in this Reiss chat:

Chat: Chat with Mike Reiss - SportsNation - ESPN Boston

RobAllan · Aug 8, 2013

KontradictioN said:
I honestly think that they had him graded as a second rounder which, based on what we have seen to date, is a pretty big shame.

I agree they had him graded as a second rounder. My disagreement stems from the fact that I DON'T believe they thought any other team would take him that high. That would indicate to me that they don't listen to any outside sources about the NFL at any point.

Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

On the Roster

In the Starting Line-Up

The poster who James White said inspires him.

PatsFans.com Supporter

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

PatsFans.com Supporter

The poster who James White said inspires him.

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

Banned

On my retirement tour.

Pro Bowl Player

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

In the Starting Line-Up

On my retirement tour.

PatsFans.com Supporter

On my retirement tour.

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

Similar threads