One way to evaluate the effectiveness of receivers is to look at "targets." A wide receiver may have 4 catches for 55 yards, but that's a very different performance if the quarterback looked the receiver's way 10 times or 4. Targets are still under-reported for college players - neither ESPN.com nor sports-reference.com lists them - but through combing the play-by-play data we can often find them.
I'm really interested in the Patriots' selection of Aaron Dobson, the wide receiver out of Marshall, in the second round in June's draft. Dobson's numbers - 57 catches for 679 yards, 3 touchdowns - are pedestrian for a receiver drafted so highly. If we factor in targets, do Dobson's numbers look more impressive?
Game Targets Catches Yards Comp% Y/A
WVU 7 4 72 0.57 10.29
WCU 11 9 81 0.82 7.36
OHIO 17 11 94 0.65 5.53
RICE 7 5 66 0.71 9.43
PUR 11 3 42 0.27 3.82
TUL 13 10 128 0.77 9.85
USM 9 5 63 0.56 7.00
UCF 10 5 68 0.50 6.80
MEM 1 1 4 1.00 4.00
ECU 5 4 61 0.80 12.20
TOTAL 91 57 679 0.63 7.46
Ultimately, targets don't really change the picture that much. Dobson is an efficient, productive college player, but there's nothing here that screams "second-round pick." The 63% completion percentage when throwing Dobson's way was actually below Marshall's 70% average as a team, and his 7.46 yards per target is just a hair over the Thundering Herd's 7.22 as a whole.
Dobson's lack of statistical progress from his sophomore (44 catches for 689 yards and 5 TDs) to his senior year often gets blamed on quarterback Rakeem Cato's inability to complete deep passes and on a spread offense that opened things for slot man Tommy Shuler more than Dobson. Is that accurate? It's hard to tell. There's only one cut-up from Dobson's 2012 season, a YouTube clip covering the West Virginia and Central Florida games:
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You can see the elements that work against Dobson in these highlights. At about 0:58, you can see Dobson badly burn the defending corner for what would have been a long gainer, but Cato overthrows him. At 2:48, Cato throws a jump-ball that Dobson makes a great catch on, but the throw carries him out of bounds. Marshall constantly deploys three or four wide receivers, so Dobson rarely gets to run posts or other long routes. He's often running curls or quick outs, such as in the first play on the tape. Of course, the Patriots are known for spreading the field and throwing a lot of quick routes, so I'm not sure the New England system will be more favorable. While Dobson has a reputation for great hands, he does drop a couple balls against UCF (at 2:15 and 3:18). He rarely gets much yardage after the catch, though he does break a tackle for a big gain at 4:07.
I was hoping to blown away by Dobson after looking at the target data and the film, but I'm not. I do think the superficial numbers undersell his performance a bit due to the time missed with injury. His overall skill set - savvy route-running while allows him to get open despite average speed and quickness, tremendous body-control for spectacular catches but occasional drops, limited run after catch ability - remind me of Brandon Lloyd, the man he might replace in New England. At 6'3", he's got considerably more size than Lloyd (6'0"), but profiles along the same lines. Anyone expecting the second coming of fellow Marshall alum Randy Moss is almost certain to be disappointed.
