Aaron Dobson - underestimated even as a rookie?

Rob0729 · Jul 9, 2013

manxman2601 said:
I'm less worried about Cordarelle Patterson who was never likely to be a good Pats fit, and more worried about Robert Woods who was a really nice fit. That he plays for a rival team now also makes Woods more relevant.

Yeah, that's the thing with looking at draft picks the Pats passed on. They could end up being studs with the teams they were drafted with and could have been a bust with the Pats. The Pats' offense is such that only a certain type of receiver is successful with the Pats. The Pats are not going to revise their offense for an unproven low first round pick.

Personally, I think Patterson would have been a bad pick for the Pats. He seems to need to thrive in a system where he can run a lot of go routes and other simple routes and not have to do a lot of pre-snap adjustments. WRs like that rely purely on their physical skills (hence why Smith is so inconsistent since he can be neutralized by a physical CB).

I still hear people cry about not getting Torrey Smith. I just don't get it. Forget the fact that he is a vastly overrated and inconsistent WR. There is nothing that shows that he could thrive in an offense other than the one he is in where Flacco just throws up meatballs to him down the field. That ain't Brady's game.

I see Patterson similar to Smith in that way. He needs to just run simple down the field routes and really isn't all that football smart.

chevss454 · Jul 9, 2013

Here's a list of the top WR rookie seasons of the last 10 years. Dobson was drafted in Rnd 2 pick 59.

1. Anquan Boldin. 101 rec for 1337 yds and 8 TDs. Rnd 2 pick 54. 2003.
2. Michael Clayton. 80/1193/7TDs. Rnd 1 pick 15, 2004.
3. A.J. Green. 65/1,057/7. Rnd 1 pick 4. 2011.
4. Marques Colston. 70/1038/8TDs. Rnd 7, 2006.
5. Eddie Royal. 90/980/5. Rnd 2 pick 42, 2008.
6. Dwayne Bowe. 70/995/5. Rnd 1 pick 23, 2007.
7. Andre Johnson. 66/976/4. Rnd 1 pick 3. 2003.
8. Mike Williams. 65/964/11. Rnd 4 pick 101. 2004
9. Julio Jones. 54/959/8. Rnd 1 pick 6. 2011.
10. DeSean Jackson. 62/912/2. Rnd 2 pick 49. 2008.
11. Lee Evans. 48/843/9. Rnd 1 pick 13. 2004.
12. Torrey Smith. 50/841/7. Rnd 2 pick 58. 2011.
13. Roy Williams. 54/817/8. Rnd 1 pick 7. 2004.
14. Santonio Holmes. 49/824/2. Rnd 1 pick 25. 2006.
15. Larry Fitzgerald. 58/780/8. Rnd 1 pick 3. 2004.
16. Calvin Johnson. 48/756/4. Rnd 1 pick 2. 2007.

(Colston was drafted as a TE)

==================================
Dobson (Rnd 2 pick 59) ranks fairly high on these lists of rookie WRs who should produce this year. In these projections, he averages 6th most productive rookie for this 2013 class. Realistically, I doubt he approaches the yardage production of those listed above. I'd be very happy with 40/500/4.
2013 NFL Scouting: Ranking the Top Ten Fantasy Football Rookie Wide Receivers | Yardbarker.com
2013 NFL Scouting: Ranking the Top Ten Fantasy Football Rookie Wide Receivers | NFL Articles | Draft
http://www.rotopost.com/fantasy-foo...ntasy-football-top-5-rookie-wide-receivers/6/

I like Dobson just fine but he does have some flaws in his game. First, he's a finesse receiver. He's a big guy who often tries to play the way a smaller guy like would. He’ll try cutbacks or reversals of field that he has no business attempting – especially considering down and distance situations. He doesn’t use his bigger body to get physical with smaller DBs. Dobson tries to finesse defenders off the line of scrimmage when pressed although he’s built to get physical with a CB. Most of all, Dobson has to do a better job of using his body as a shield between the defender and the football. Fortunately, he's a smarter WR and he has remarkably soft hands. His low drop percentage must have really caught BB's eye. If the Pats can coach up his flaws, Dobson can earn a starting spot and contribute. Going into the draft, I was actually higher on Mark Harrison and Josh Boyce but both were injured for mini camp. Time will tell.

conway · Jul 9, 2013

Dobson appears to have all the tools. He's a little hard to project bc Marshall's QB play was so terrible while he was there (regardless of what any stats might suggest). I never heard anything bad said about him while he was at MU (I'm in Huntington, WV) or even in high school (he's originally from WV). I think he's likely to put up a few 1,000 yard seasons with Brady, though probably not as a rookie. I feel pretty good about him, and I'm usually right about MU players. (Previous posts show I knew Lee Smith didn't have much to offer and didn't like Vinnie Curry. Can't say I projected Albert McClellan to be starter quality, but he never played LB at MU.)

I'm going to say 50-60 receptions for 700-800 yards this year, closer to 1,000 next year, assuming Brady's healthy. I don't think he'll have any off-the-field troubles. I've heard he comes from a good family and is a good guy.

patsinthesnow · Jul 9, 2013

chevss454 said:
Here's a list of the top WR rookie seasons of the last 10 years. Dobson was drafted in Rnd 2 pick 59.

1. Anquan Boldin. 101 rec for 1337 yds and 8 TDs. Rnd 2 pick 54. 2003.
2. Michael Clayton. 80/1193/7TDs. Rnd 1 pick 15, 2004.
3. A.J. Green. 65/1,057/7. Rnd 1 pick 4. 2011.
4. Marques Colston. 70/1038/8TDs. Rnd 7, 2006.
5. Eddie Royal. 90/980/5. Rnd 2 pick 42, 2008.
6. Dwayne Bowe. 70/995/5. Rnd 1 pick 23, 2007.
7. Andre Johnson. 66/976/4. Rnd 1 pick 3. 2003.
8. Mike Williams. 65/964/11. Rnd 4 pick 101. 2004
9. Julio Jones. 54/959/8. Rnd 1 pick 6. 2011.
10. DeSean Jackson. 62/912/2. Rnd 2 pick 49. 2008.
11. Lee Evans. 48/843/9. Rnd 1 pick 13. 2004.
12. Torrey Smith. 50/841/7. Rnd 2 pick 58. 2011.
13. Roy Williams. 54/817/8. Rnd 1 pick 7. 2004.
14. Santonio Holmes. 49/824/2. Rnd 1 pick 25. 2006.
15. Larry Fitzgerald. 58/780/8. Rnd 1 pick 3. 2004.
16. Calvin Johnson. 48/756/4. Rnd 1 pick 2. 2007.

(Colston was drafted as a TE)

==================================
Dobson (Rnd 2 pick 59) ranks fairly high on these lists of rookie WRs who should produce this year. In these projections, he averages 6th most productive rookie for this 2013 class. Realistically, I doubt he approaches the yardage production of those listed above. I'd be very happy with 40/500/4.
2013 NFL Scouting: Ranking the Top Ten Fantasy Football Rookie Wide Receivers | Yardbarker.com
2013 NFL Scouting: Ranking the Top Ten Fantasy Football Rookie Wide Receivers | NFL Articles | Draft
http://www.rotopost.com/fantasy-foo...ntasy-football-top-5-rookie-wide-receivers/6/

I like Dobson just fine but he does have some flaws in his game. First, he's a finesse receiver. He's a big guy who often tries to play the way a smaller guy like would. He’ll try cutbacks or reversals of field that he has no business attempting – especially considering down and distance situations. He doesn’t use his bigger body to get physical with smaller DBs. Dobson tries to finesse defenders off the line of scrimmage when pressed although he’s built to get physical with a CB. Most of all, Dobson has to do a better job of using his body as a shield between the defender and the football. Fortunately, he's a smarter WR and he has remarkably soft hands. His low drop percentage must have really caught BB's eye. If the Pats can coach up his flaws, Dobson can earn a starting spot and contribute. Going into the draft, I was actually higher on Mark Harrison and Josh Boyce but both were injured for mini camp. Time will tell.

That list is missing the recent success of the "weak" 2012 WR class.

Justin Blackmon-5th overall pick:64 receptions 865 yards 5 TDs

T.Y Hilton-4th round pick: 50 receptions 861 yards 7 TDs

Josh Gordon-2nd round supplemental pick: 50 receptions 805 yards 5 TDs

chevss454 · Jul 9, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
That list is missing the recent success of the "weak" 2012 WR class.

Justin Blackmon-5th overall pick:64 receptions 865 yards 5 TDs

T.Y Hilton-4th round pick: 50 receptions 861 yards 7 TDs

Josh Gordon-2nd round supplemental pick: 50 receptions 805 yards 5 TDs

Good catch. I was too hurried & neglected to include 2012. Hilton's 4.3 speed from the slot allowed him to gain the 2nd most YAC (7.9) in the NFL last year. Harvin, of course was first.

Blackmon and Hilton would rank 11 and 12 on my list.

Rob0729 · Jul 9, 2013

Both Dobson and Boyce suffered from poor QB play in their college careers. Watching the highlights of both players, you can see some horrendous throws by their QBs. That caused both their values to drop especially for Dobson where he wasn't the leading receiver on the team because his QB couldn't throw very far and their leading receiver was a possession receiver.

Not to say that means with an elite QB like Brady that he will be a stud, but the guy was not really showcased in the Marshall offense.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Jul 9, 2013

brady199 said:
Well you gotta make up your mind now about Patterson. You can't wait to see if he's good and then get pissed, that just wouldn't be fair to BB!

Apparently that is exactly the way he rolls.

patsfan-1982 · Jul 9, 2013

I think Boyce will have a much better rookie season I think he can be a DeSean Jackson type of player I also think Donald Jones will have a nice roll on this team making Dobson Brady's #5 opt,

#1 Rob Gronkowski,
#2 Danny Amendola,
#3 Josh Boyce,
#4 Donald Jones,
#5 Aaron Dobson,

so with that said I don't see Aaron Dobson having much more then 30 rec as a rookie

TruthSeeker · Jul 9, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
That list is missing the recent success of the "weak" 2012 WR class.

Justin Blackmon-5th overall pick:64 receptions 865 yards 5 TDs

T.Y Hilton-4th round pick: 50 receptions 861 yards 7 TDs

Josh Gordon-2nd round supplemental pick: 50 receptions 805 yards 5 TDs

Loved TY Hilton, wanted the Pats to pick him. He was one of my binkies for the 2012 draft. Saw him on a kick return, and it looked like he was shot out of a cannon. Then saw him make some difficult catches, and also get pounded and bounce right up. Great steal of a pick in the 4th round.

chevss454 · Jul 9, 2013

patsfan-1982 said:
I think Boyce will have a much better rookie season I think he can be a DeSean Jackson type of player I also think Donald Jones will have a nice roll on this team making Dobson Brady's #5 opt,

#1 Rob Gronkowski,
#2 Danny Amendola,
#3 Josh Boyce,
#4 Donald Jones,
#5 Aaron Dobson,

so with that said I don't see Aaron Dobson having much more then 30 rec as a rookie

Curious and a little surprised you don't even mention Edelman. On your list I'd have put him third for now. It's all premature; TC will be critical.

chasa · Jul 9, 2013

i'll go on the record and say that dobson will get at least one offensive rookie of the year vote.

tombonneau · Jul 9, 2013

TommyBrady12 said:
also keeping my eye on cordarelle patterson and making sure that he pats didn't screw that up. honestly, if patterson turns out to be a star, then we need to get a GM to the drafting....

Pats didn't screw up trading down and passing on him; they screwed up not drafting Robert Woods. Gonna drive me nuts watching him succeed on the Bills.

chasa · Jul 9, 2013

tombonneau said:
Pats didn't screw up trading down and passing on him; they screwed up not drafting Robert Woods. Gonna drive me nuts watching him succeed on the Bills.

And by Succeed you mean, struggle as the bills go from junkyard QB to junkYard QB until robert woods turns 32 and moves on to another team.

Oswlek · Jul 9, 2013

tombonneau said:
Pats didn't screw up trading down and passing on him; they screwed up not drafting Robert Woods. Gonna drive me nuts watching him succeed on the Bills.

Fair enough.

Me, personally, I feel pretty confident that one of Collins, Ryan and Boyce will end up offering as much value. Two may completely crap the bed - probably will, in fact - but as long as you get an equally good player out of it, who cares? It isn't like you'd have gotten more players by picking at #29.

everlong · Jul 9, 2013

Dobson will end up with more receptions, yards and TD's in his Patriot's career than Chad Jackson, Chad Johnson and Bethel Johnson had as Patriots combined..........oh wait.....:bricks:

NEPettyOfficer72 · Jul 9, 2013

tombonneau said:
Pats didn't screw up trading down and passing on him; they screwed up not drafting Robert Woods. Gonna drive me nuts watching him succeed on the Bills.

Wow, screwed up for not drafting Robert Woods, poor Aaron Dobson lol. I think this guy will be just fine.. Check out the staff, the quarterback, and the headcoach vs Robert Wood's situation. Then checkout the raw intangibles, the large but soft hands, the route running, the size and speed combination, and intelligence. Also the complexity of offense that he played in college, like I mentioned before, the fact that he didn't drop any passes his senior year and showed just about more upside then any receiver in the draft not named Patterson, and now he learns and plays for the best. And with a name like "Aaron Dobson" and a number in the teens lol the kid GOTS TO BE GOOD IMO :rocker:

Rob0729 · Jul 9, 2013

I think Dobson could surprise some people this year, but rookie of the year votes stuff is way too premature.

Archeryaddict12 · Jul 9, 2013

I sure hope he develops enough this year to help us in our playoff run. Heck if he can drag a defender or 2 deep will help tremendously.

BradyFTW! · Jul 9, 2013

patsfan-1982 said:
I think Boyce will have a much better rookie season I think he can be a DeSean Jackson type of player I also think Donald Jones will have a nice roll on this team making Dobson Brady's #5 opt,

#1 Rob Gronkowski,
#2 Danny Amendola,
#3 Josh Boyce,
#4 Donald Jones,
#5 Aaron Dobson,

so with that said I don't see Aaron Dobson having much more then 30 rec as a rookie

Why Boyce over Dobson? Dobson is probably more pro-ready.

patsfan-1982 · Jul 9, 2013

BradyFTW! said:
Why Boyce over Dobson? Dobson is probably more pro-ready.

I maybe wrong but I think Boyce raw talent will help him more in he's rookie year, he can play in the return game I think they can line him up in the back field or on a end around he has the speed to run a post route

Aaron Dobson - underestimated even as a rookie?

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