The Importance To Belichick of QB2

Ring 6 · Jul 6, 2013

manxman2601 said:
The only point I was trying to make was that BB thinks Tebow is good enough to be a New England Patriot. As he does, I'm not sure how my argument is derailed.

I think Tebow offers good value at the back end of the roster and I'm fine with the signing and would be fine with him making the final 53. I've never claimed he's a "good" QB (although there's plenty worse) or claimed anything about Tebow that's more than that. I do think you're making some assumptions about my views on Tebow that aren't there.

Fair enough, thanks for the clarification.

Demosthenes · Jul 6, 2013

Brady6 said:
Sanchez did well initially in his career. He just got eaten alive by the media has a big mouth promise making HC who makes things even worse.

It also appears that he hasn't progressed. His first two years, the Jets had a dominant defense and a very strong running game for him to rely on.

Once that started to fade, Sanchez was asked to shoulder more of the load for his team and he hasn't been able to do it.

supafly · Jul 7, 2013

I think that certain measurables and characteristics certainly need to be present, along with the usual traits such as work ethic and attention to detail etc.

That said, I also believe that Belichick realizes that until you're put in actual live rep game situations including gameplanning throughout the week and one-on-one mentoring with he/JMcD, there are going to be limitations on the QB2 in terms of properly assessing him on a full scale.

Obviously, Belichick has a much better clue as to how good or bad guys like Mallett or even Tebow could be as opposed to us fans. We have very limited exposure to them.

bradybeliever · Jul 7, 2013

Jackson 2 said:
This is my nomination for one of the all-time best posts ever. Well-done. And thank you mods for banning the worst poster ever, in my opinion.

I'm gonna miss ac. I thought he was the funniest poster on these boards.

Strange but funny.

patsinthesnow · Jul 7, 2013

LOL, the QB with more INTs to TDs is better than Tebow.

Want an even better laugh, compare Sanchez's first 14 starts to Tebows. Sanchez was f-ing terrible his rookie year, the notion he started off "well" is just off.

Here's my last defense of Tebow:

Look at Tom Brady's first 14 starts.
Look at Peyton Manning's 14 starts.
Look at Eli Manning's first 14 starts.
Look at Andrew Luck's first 14 starts.
Etc.

Brady went from a game manager, 86 qbr and 189 passing yards a game, to the best QB in the league, 300 yards a game and 100+qbr.

Look at Peyton and Eli's first 14 starts and just laugh.

Do people really think Luck is going to stay a 54% comp pct. and 76qbr quarterback? Of course not.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The point made, a lot of QBs improve immensely from their first years. Now, what if Tebow improved to a 200ypg, 85qbr, 55% comp pct., 50 ypg rushing QB? IMO with his intangibles you would have an above average starting QB.

Tebow never got a chance to improve himself on a solid first year for a first year QB. If you want recent proof of progression, check Daltons first to second year stats. Not everyone can be Wilson and RGIII their rookie year. I hope he gets a 2nd chance to start someday on another team.

Jackson 2 · Jul 7, 2013

bradybeliever said:
I'm gonna miss ac. I thought he was the funniest poster on these boards.

Strange but funny.

If past history is any indicator, you can probably find him somewhere without too much difficulty.

Ring 6 · Jul 7, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
LOL, the QB with more INTs to TDs is better than Tebow.

Want an even better laugh, compare Sanchez's first 14 starts to Tebows. Sanchez was f-ing terrible his rookie year, the notion he started off "well" is just off.

Here's my last defense of Tebow:

Look at Tom Brady's first 14 starts.
Look at Peyton Manning's 14 starts.
Look at Eli Manning's first 14 starts.
Look at Andrew Luck's first 14 starts.
Etc.

Brady went from a game manager, 86 qbr and 189 passing yards a game, to the best QB in the league, 300 yards a game and 100+qbr.

Look at Peyton and Eli's first 14 starts and just laugh.

Do people really think Luck is going to stay a 54% comp pct. and 76qbr quarterback? Of course not.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The point made, a lot of QBs improve immensely from their first years. Now, what if Tebow improved to a 200ypg, 85qbr, 55% comp pct., 50 ypg rushing QB? IMO with his intangibles you would have an above average starting QB.

Tebow never got a chance to improve himself on a solid first year for a first year QB. If you want recent proof of progression, check Daltons first to second year stats. Not everyone can be Wilson and RGIII their rookie year. I hope he gets a 2nd chance to start someday on another team.

Of course Sanchez is awful.
Tebow completed 46.7% of his passes. 55% is almost a 20% improvement. Like asking Brady to go from 65% to 78%. You kind of threw it out there like it was no big deal. In the entire 2011 regular season he completed 55% or more just one time.
He also threw for 150 a game, so again 200 is a 33% increase like asking Brady to improve from 4800 to 6400.
All said you are hoping he can have the average season of Mark Sanchez the last 2 years.
Lets not forget that these numbers were put up playing a watered down offense that threw less than 25 times a game, and put up more than 18 points 3 times in 11 games.
Sure any player can improve, but calling Tebows career to date anything resembling good QB play just doesnt hold up to scrutiny.
If you plug Tebow into the Patriots offense and run it the same way, we will be lucky to score 10 points a game. Perhaps I'm wrong but I don't see Bill Belichick changing his offense that has evolved over 12 years into a college style wildcat system with a running QB.

Brady6 · Jul 7, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
LOL, the QB with more INTs to TDs is better than Tebow.

Want an even better laugh, compare Sanchez's first 14 starts to Tebows. Sanchez was f-ing terrible his rookie year, the notion he started off "well" is just off.

Here's my last defense of Tebow:

Look at Tom Brady's first 14 starts.
Look at Peyton Manning's 14 starts.
Look at Eli Manning's first 14 starts.
Look at Andrew Luck's first 14 starts.
Etc.

Brady went from a game manager, 86 qbr and 189 passing yards a game, to the best QB in the league, 300 yards a game and 100+qbr.

Look at Peyton and Eli's first 14 starts and just laugh.

Do people really think Luck is going to stay a 54% comp pct. and 76qbr quarterback? Of course not.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The point made, a lot of QBs improve immensely from their first years. Now, what if Tebow improved to a 200ypg, 85qbr, 55% comp pct., 50 ypg rushing QB? IMO with his intangibles you would have an above average starting QB.

Tebow never got a chance to improve himself on a solid first year for a first year QB. If you want recent proof of progression, check Daltons first to second year stats. Not everyone can be Wilson and RGIII their rookie year. I hope he gets a 2nd chance to start someday on another team.

You were right I looked at Sanchez stats and I was dead wrong. His rookie year was awful. He had one subpar season in year #2. So we're now in agreement there.

I do have to respectfully disagree with your opinion that Tebow had a solid first year as a starter. If you take a look at his game log the only game that you would look to as an average to above average QB performance would be the Vikings game. His performance also declined significantly in 2 games after the Patriots game. Which indicates teams were beginning to figure him out.

http://www.nfl.com/player/timtebow/497135/gamelogs?season=2011

Now that is not to say Tebow shouldn't be commended for helping take a team that started 1-4 to playoffs because he should. And he did prove to be a clutch competitor in a number of games.

patsinthesnow · Jul 7, 2013

I get that we disagree on Tebow, thats fine, but did you fail to see the improvement of all the other QBs?

Peyton went from 56.7% his rookie year to a career average of 65.2%, almost a 20% gain. His QBR went from 71.2 to a career average of 95.7.

Brady went from 189.5 ypg his first year to a career average of 253.1, a more than 30% gain.

QBs improve. Tebow can improve, he turns 26 in August. IMO going 7-4 and winning a playoff game is a solid first season.

Ring 6 · Jul 7, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
I get that we disagree on Tebow, thats fine, but did you fail to see the improvement of all the other QBs?

Peyton went from 56.7% his rookie year to a career average of 65.2%, almost a 20% gain. His QBR went from 71.2 to a career average of 95.7.

Brady went from 189.5 ypg his first year to a career average of 253.1, a more than 30% gain.

QBs improve. Tebow can improve, he turns 26 in August. IMO going 7-4 and winning a playoff game is a solid first season.

But its not the improvement in ALL other QBs. You have found a select few.
Certainly you cannot be telling me that you think Tebow has the passing accuracy and ability to read defenses and decision making that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have.
Tebow has also been in the league 3 years, not one, and he starts from a substantially lower place than either of those QBs.
Giving him credit for 7-4 when they mostly won despite his play just clouds the argument.
If Tebow had the skills that Manning and Brady possess then I could certainly understand the argument that he will improve over time, but it isnt about statistics its about the talent of the QB. Tebow just simply doesnt throw the ball well enough to be a quality NFL QB.

Even if I accept your stats of 55% completion and 200 yards a game, which we both would agree is the highest imaginable at this point, we would be ranked 31 and 26 in those categories. I guess I just don't understand why you would want to force turning your offense over to a QB who undoubtedly would give you a weak passing offense.

Ring 6 · Jul 7, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
I get that we disagree on Tebow, thats fine, but did you fail to see the improvement of all the other QBs?

Peyton went from 56.7% his rookie year to a career average of 65.2%, almost a 20% gain. His QBR went from 71.2 to a career average of 95.7.

Brady went from 189.5 ypg his first year to a career average of 253.1, a more than 30% gain.

QBs improve. Tebow can improve, he turns 26 in August. IMO going 7-4 and winning a playoff game is a solid first season.

Here are all of the QBs in the last 20 years to complete less than 48% of their passes in ANY season of their career, and that seasons stats (edit: with at least 200 pass attmepts)

Games Passing
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Y/A SkYds AY/A ANY/A Y/G W L T
1 Stan Gelbaugh 1992 30 6-150 SEA NFL 10 8 121 255 47.45% 1307 6 11 52.9 34 5.13 265 3.65 2.31 130.7 0 8 0
2 Craig Whelihan 1998 27 6-197 SDG NFL 10 7 149 320 46.56% 1803 8 19 48.0 15 5.63 111 3.46 2.98 180.3 2 5 0
3 Tim Tebow 2011 24 1-25 DEN NFL 14 11 126 271 46.49% 1729 12 6 72.9 33 6.38 225 6.27 4.85 123.5 7 4 0
4 Mike McMahon 2005 26 5-149 PHI NFL 9 7 94 207 45.41% 1158 5 8 55.2 19 5.59 96 4.34 3.55 128.7 2 5 0
5 Ryan Leaf 1998 22 1-2 SDG NFL 10 9 111 245 45.31% 1289 2 15 39.0 22 5.26 140 2.67 1.93 128.9 3 6 0
6 Heath Shuler 1994 23 1-3 WAS NFL 11 8 120 265 45.28% 1658 10 12 59.6 12 6.26 83 4.97 4.46 150.7 1 7 0
7 Akili Smith 2000 25 1-3 CIN NFL 12 11 118 267 44.19% 1253 3 6 52.8 36 4.69 191 3.91 2.81 104.4 2 9 0

No one on this list every improved, so your comment about all of the QBs that improved is the equivalent of saying Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so there is evidence 6th round picks become HOFers.

Brady6 · Jul 7, 2013

patsinthesnow said:
I get that we disagree on Tebow, thats fine, but did you fail to see the improvement of all the other QBs?

Peyton went from 56.7% his rookie year to a career average of 65.2%, almost a 20% gain. His QBR went from 71.2 to a career average of 95.7.

Brady went from 189.5 ypg his first year to a career average of 253.1, a more than 30% gain.

QBs improve. Tebow can improve, he turns 26 in August. IMO going 7-4 and winning a playoff game is a solid first season.

No I saw that. And I agree that QB's usually improve in their 2nd season as a starter.

We never got to see if Tebow would of unfortunately. Despite being primarily a Patriots fan I would of still liked to seen him have that 2nd season in Denver.

It's unlikely that even if he made the team as a QB we'd see him play a snap in the regular season. So whether or not he has improved will not be answered.

Tebow isn't on the top of the list of players I'm a fan of, he also isn't someone I dislike as a player. I could go either way with him in all honesty. It's clear to me though that the best chance for Tebow to succeed on the New England Patriots over the next 2 years of his contract is playing a position or role other than QB. That's not to say he can't return to that role down the road but if his faithful fans want to see him on the field being successful they should either embrace the concept of a temporary position change or pray for a trade.

Snake Eyes · Jul 7, 2013

sb1 said:
Sanchez > Tebow. Yeah, it's a fact.

I'd take Tebow as a backup QB before Sannchez. With enough time I think BB and McDaniels can get quite a bit from Tebow, he hasn't had much consistency in his career. McDaniels knows how to groom a QB, give him some time and he'll do well with him.

That said, Sanchez is lazy and Tebow is super-motivated, you can't teach desire.

Brady6 · Jul 7, 2013

AndyJohnson said:
Here are all of the QBs in the last 20 years to complete less than 48% of their passes in ANY season of their career, and that seasons stats (edit: with at least 200 pass attmepts)

GamesPassing
RkPlayerYearAgeDraftTmLgGGSCmpAttCmp%YdsTDIntRateSkY/ASkYdsAY/AANY/AY/GWLT
1Stan Gelbaugh1992306-150SEANFL10812125547.45%130761152.9345.132653.652.31130.7080
2Craig Whelihan1998276-197SDGNFL10714932046.56%180381948.0155.631113.462.98180.3250
3Tim Tebow2011241-25DENNFL141112627146.49%172912672.9336.382256.274.85123.5740
4Mike McMahon2005265-149PHINFL979420745.41%11585855.2195.59964.343.55128.7250
5Ryan Leaf1998221-2SDGNFL10911124545.31%128921539.0225.261402.671.93128.9360
6Heath Shuler1994231-3WASNFL11812026545.28%1658101259.6126.26834.974.46150.7170
7Akili Smith2000251-3CINNFL121111826744.19%12533652.8364.691913.912.81104.4290

No one on this list every improved, so your comment about all of the QBs that improved is the equivalent of saying Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so there is evidence 6th round picks become HOFers.

You're a very knowledgeable football fan. I enjoy your posts.

Good Stuff!

Ring 6 · Jul 7, 2013

Snake Eyes said:
I'd take Tebow as a backup QB before Sannchez. With enough time I think BB and McDaniels can get quite a bit from Tebow, he hasn't had much consistency in his career. McDaniels knows how to groom a QB, give him some time and he'll do well with him.

That said, Sanchez is lazy and Tebow is super-motivated, you can't teach desire.

Thats a tough call because Sanchez has been coached horrendously.
I think its 50/50 whether he just lacks the mental/psychological make up to succeed or that he was doomed by coaching, including the psychological approach the Jets take. (Sanchez certainly did not benefit by Ryans blustering).
He does have the physical tools to be a good QB its just a matter of whether he arrived broken above the neck, or if the Jets/Ryan broke him.

With Tebow I do not recall a QB ever who was so poor a passer and ever became a good one.
I would imagine if your goal is to draw attention to your team, and you are willing to turn your offense into a glorified wildcat, Tebow could probably make you a team that could win 8 games in a good year, but you are not winning consistently in this league with a QB who cannot throw the ball well.

Ring 6 · Jul 7, 2013

Brady6 said:
You're a very knowledgeable football fan. I enjoy your posts.

Good Stuff!

Thank you, welcome to the board.

Brady6 · Jul 7, 2013

AndyJohnson said:
Thank you, welcome to the board.

Thank you!

Deus Irae · Jul 7, 2013

Brady6 said:
Good Stuff!

The players in the post you quoted were mostly guys who were guaranteed to be stiffs from that start. Furthermore, among the (3) who had any chance at all, Leaf did improve his QB% (45.3/50.0/51/1), as did Heath Shuler (45.3/52.8/52.2).

So, 2 out of the 3 legitimate and touted QBs did show more than a 5% improvement in their completion percentages.

Brady6 · Jul 7, 2013

Deus Irae said:
The players in the post you quoted were mostly guys who were guaranteed to be stiffs from that start. Furthermore, among the (3) who had any chance at all, Leaf did improve his QB% (45.3/50.0/51/1), as did Heath Shuler (45.3/52.8/52.2).

So, 2 out of the 3 legitimate and touted QBs did show more than a 5% improvement in their completion percentages.

I don't think I'm the person you intended to quote. I didn't post any QB's stats. I'm not a intelligent and knowledgeable football fan like you, Andy and others.. I'm just a simple football fan enjoying the learning experience of being a new member of this forum

Ring 6 · Jul 7, 2013

Deus Irae said:
The players in the post you quoted were mostly guys who were guaranteed to be stiffs from that start. Furthermore, among the (3) who had any chance at all, Leaf did improve his QB% (45.3/50.0/51/1), as did Heath Shuler (45.3/52.8/52.2).

So, 2 out of the 3 legitimate and touted QBs did show more than a 5% improvement in their completion percentages.

How do you determine guaranteed to be stiffs from the start? Hindsight?
Besides the list was a comprehensive list of all QBs who ever had a season under 48% with 200 attempts in the last 20 years. This was to counter the comparison the Manning and Brady.
This is a legitimate fact in the disucssion of how poorly Tebow threw the ball and what it means.
The fact that it is not an all encompassing point that rules out any other conclusion makes it just like any other fact that could be entered into the argument, and better than dismissing it because players drafted in the top 5 were 'guaranteed to fail'.

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